You should only bet MLB and preseason football if you are insane. You will have go to the psychologist and have him certify you as crazy if you think you can lay -110 on MLB and win in the long run, then use your disability check to win. I have found this is the secret to winning at MLB, you are playing on a govt. freeplay. If you are sane and realize that you are spending money everytime you bet on MLB/preseason in the same way your spending money if you buy a scratchoff lotto ticket then good luck to you, perhaps an act of god will occur and you win. Also do not play at 5Dimes if you bet MLB/preseason football b/c your money will be gone long before you have "earned" the chance to win a freeplay bet which is a fukin joke, also 5Dimes has nothing but 20 and 30 cent lines except for their razor sharp lines on near coinflip games which are 10 cent lines but wouldn't matter anyway cause no way of telling which of two dead even teams is going to win that day. BOL to you and welcome to SBR forum.
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I think this post belongs in Think Tank.
Well written and very articulate
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Thanks crazy, cheers!
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Not to be an ass, but no way.Originally posted by CrazyL
NFLX is one of the most profitable betting opportunities of the year. And while I don't yet do it, modeling baseball is also extremely profitable (with way more betting opportunities).Comment -
It's always interesting to read other perspectives.
Preseason is a different animal from regular season, and must be treated s such. I usually do very well during this time, but you HAVE to use different methodologies.Comment -
Durito you're nuts, you have no idea even who they are going to play or for how many series, you have no idea how those players are going to play, how could that be a profitable betting opportunity? Good luck with your extremely profitable MLB modeling, I saw some excellent models down at the homeless shelterOriginally posted by duritoComment -
Generally speaking I don't care if the Colts line up the Chinese Women's handball team at offensive line next game -- as long as I have the right numbers. You don't have to listen to me, but when someone like Justin posts as above, you should.Originally posted by bettilimbroke999
In terms of baseball, when you see guys like Ganch betting baseball, you can pretty much assume that you can certainly make money doing so.
No offense but your posts sounds like the idea: "i can't do something (profit from baseball/nflx), thus no one else can do it". I suggest trying harder.Comment -
Thanks for your opinion durito, I assume the reason SBR was started was so that guys interested in sports gambling could make a living, if they were rakin in money with baseball models and NFLx well just pure guessing then they wouldn't invest all their time in this. I know plenty of guys who are pretty smart who sports gamble and at best break even or lose, it is a fun hobby, very few do this for a source of income, 99/100 its just a hobby. But it's all good, we'll just agree to disagree, BOL on your bets as essentially only thing separating someone picking winners from losers in MLB is the 5 or 6 ft that separates a 3 run homer from a fly out, but gl get paid .91 on the dollar bet to try and cap that 6 ft on a given day.Comment -
Betting baseball, to me, is the closest to playing poker. Keep making the right play over and over, don't overreact to bad beats and grind on...Comment -
durito you dont invest in baseball?? i noticed you posted a some football
i know action can be few and far the mountaintops,but their are great cash registers out their
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I come to sbr to learn from people that know more than me. There's a lot of good information here. Ignore it if you like.
What sports do you think are beatable? Or are none of them?Comment -
Comparing a pure luck game to another pure luck game, not very reassuringOriginally posted by smitch124Comment -
NFL/NCAAF (games that actually count) are the only sports that can be beaten and perhaps NCAAB, that is all, god has spokenComment -
If baseball is pure luck (and it's obviously not, nor is poker), simply bet every +odds bet you can find and you should clean up.Comment -
I am 4-1 with NFl pre Season
Nailing 1st halvesComment -
Handicapping Bases Will Make You Go Broke. Tht's For Sure. No One Can Predict This Sht.. Impossible.. Coin Flip.. If You Want To Make Money In This Business, There's Only 1 Way.. Forget Who's Playing Who.. Dont Even Look At Stats.. It's Useless. Just Bet The Best Possible Line And Always Have An Edge And Always Beat The Closing Number, And I Guarantee You, You Will End Up With The Money.
And Dont Chase Like I Did Recently And Have Proper Money Management And Dont Bet For The Sake Of Betting, Like Tv Games, Etc..
Then It Don't Matter If It's Bases, Or Whatever.. Just Shop Shop Shop At All The Best Books Lke Matchy.. Etc.. Only Way You Can Win Money In This Business. But If You Do Like Guys Like Iwin Do Or Patty Do And Just Bet Games Off The Top Of Your Head At -110.. It's Good Night Nurse For You.. No Chance.. This Stuff Is Too Fukkin Unpredictable. Its A Crapshoot.Comment -
I do bet some baseball. I don't model it, or handicap it. I intend to one day, I just need some more knowledge and time. I do play futures, props, and the occasional side/total/rl if I come across an off market number. But nothing that could be helped by knowing players, and honestly outside the Red Sox I hardly know what's going on.Originally posted by accuscoresucksdurito you dont invest in baseball?? i noticed you posted a some football
i know action can be few and far the mountaintops,but their are great cash registers out theirComment -
Lines are set virtually perfectly by ppl with models ten times more advanced then yours durito, throw on a 20 cent vig line and good luck to youComment -
NFL full game sides are the sharpest lines out there.Originally posted by bettilimbroke999
If you have the talent to beat those, you can win at anything.Comment -
Really?Originally posted by bettilimbroke999
How much do you think a linesmaker at a sportsbook makes in a year?
If the lines are so perfect, why do they move during the week and become more efficient?Comment -
I usually first half lines, games can go shit to hell in 2nd half, too situational, consistency lies within the 1st halfOriginally posted by duritoComment -
Originally posted by durito
to many factors to bet blind dogs and adherently leave anything under +125 alone.
in the 3rd month prior to last seasons ending [mlb] i attempted to create a model which i never finished on this.it was very kind to me but i pursuid it no more cause its not my style..Comment -
Originally posted by durito
i bet on anything i have an edge on,during december i might have 17 looks on the boardComment -
I havent done to well in baseball this year, but I do know a few locals that shut down during baseball season. There is a reason for that. They get killed. So I know someone out there is making money.Comment -
Avg. line movement is around 5 in MLB (-110 to -115) and this is from opening line which opens at most books at 20 cent line even on coinflip games, even if you got overnight dime lines the 5 cent movement would only give you a coinflip IF you were psychic enough to figure out which way the line was going to move. Poker is pure luck as well, imagine if you put yourself up against yourself in poker what do you think would happen if you played for a year, both of you break dead even, fuk no, one of you would be up a ton while the other broke b/c of better luck/better cards. I tried to help, as I said this was a message to new posters, the old ones that are set in their ways and have been blowing their cash for years like you and I are too degenerate to quit betting shit we cant overcome the vig at but new posters might have a chance to avoid the pitfalls.Comment -
Do you have data that backs this up? Because I don't follow it, but Id bet anything that the average opener moves quit a bit more than that.Originally posted by bettilimbroke999
I don't play poker often or well. And while I'm certain there is luck involved in poker, it is a game of skill in the end. Play enough hands (this could take years i'm sure) and the better player will come out ahead.Originally posted by bettilimbroke999
I am not set in my ways at all. I am always open to learning more, in fact that's the reason I am here. And no, I do not do this to blow my cash. If I can't "overcome the vig" betting something, I will stop -- it's as simple as that.Originally posted by bettilimbroke999Comment -
take note guys....i agree with you 1000%Originally posted by Nicky Santauro
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I suggest reading this post a few times.
Originally posted by GanchrowI think the above quote nicely exemplifies the primary difference in philosophy between recreational and (quantitative) advantage bettors.
A sporting event is by its very nature chaotic, associated with an inherent level of essentially irreducible entropy. The goal of the advantage bettor isn't so much to delve in to the entropic, but rather to come up with broadly scoped probability measures that seek to estimate the likelihood of a given outcome, conditioned on the available data.
A good analogy might be a fair coin-flip where a player is able to bet heads at +110 for an EV of +5%. Now let's say a player makes a +110 bet on heads, the coin is flipped and it comes up tails.
An advantage player might reason, "OK I knew I had only a 50% probability of winning going into this bet, I know the coin-flip was fair, offer the bet to me again and I'll make the bet again."
A recreational player however, perhaps overly concerned with the excitement of the bet itself, might watch the flip in super slo-mo. He sees the coin start off tails side up, make 7.5 rotations as it ascends, and on the way down just as it looks almost certain to land heads, a door down the hall is slammed shut, creating a tiny, almost imperceptible wind that knocks a small butterfly into the tails side of the coin, causing, at almost the last moment to land heads side down.
The recreational bettor slams his fist in disgust and says, "This is unreal! I was about to win that bet. How could I have possibly known that that door was going to slam at exactly the moment that the butterfly was flying by. There are just way too many factors at play! The outcome of a coin-flip can't be predicted and there's no way anyone can make money doing this!"
To an extent the recreational is quite right. The precise outcome of a fair coin-flip can't be predicted with certainty. There's no reasonable way in which that slammed door or that butterfly could have be foreseen, or just as importantly, what their impact on the final result would have been even could they have been foreseen.
This is a big reason why, all else being equal, "critical infield errors" or "mysterious blown whistles" don't bother me personally. I'm not trying to predict such essentially "chaotic" subevents and fully realize that they largely can't be predicted past a certain, very generic point. I don't watch games in super slo-mo, because I don't really care for the purposes of a single bet whether I ultimately won or lost due to getting lucky or unlucky.
For an advantage bettor wagering shouldn't be about "picking winners" per se but rather about associating probabilities with various outcomes. Equipped with these initial "prior" probability estimates, advantage bettors should then utilize market evidence (generally in the form of current broad-based market prices) to infer "posterior" probabilities by a process known as "Bayesian inference". These posterior probabilities, which when taken in conjunction with available prices (that, depending upon your bookie, may differ from the broad-based market price), to determine edge and then ultimately bet size.
That's it. That's the entire (quantitative) advantage betting game in a nutshell. Sure, sometimes the "model price" might itself only be a function of the "market price" (such that the posterior and prior probabilities are equivalent), such as in the case of say, betting Bowl underdog of 7+ points prior to New Year's (a strategy which, by the way, I'm by no means way endorsing), but the above is really the essence of advantage betting.
When I bet the Pittsburgh run line last night at +105 and +102 I was no more "predicting" the outcome of the game in any meaningful sense than the earlier hypothetical advantage player betting on heads at +110 was "predicting" the outcome the fair coin-flip.
Currently I believe Pit+1.5 to be fairly valued at about 50.52% (a line of roughly -102.1), implying edges of about 3.56% and 2.04% on my bets at +105 and +102, respectively. As game time approaches, both those estimates (as well as available prices) are likely to change and in response my programs will likely be placing additional bets -- maybe some on the Tampa RL, or on either of the alternate run lines, or or either of the money lines, or on the game or team totals -- but all the while paying close attention not only to my expected value but also to my underlying risk.
I'm going out tonight around 6PM, a good hour before the PIT/TB game starts, I'm sure I'll have no idea about my net exposure to any aspect of the game, and won't know, even if I happen to see the final score, whether I've made or lost money on the event.
Advantage sports betting is all about placing +EV bets while keeping tight control over the reins of risk (implying that -EV are occasionally in order); that the bets' outcomes happen to be based on sporting events is, at least for me, little more than an afterthought. Yeah, so a bottom of the 9th inning grand slam with no outs happened to cost me a visitor +1.5 bet ... but even if I actually knew that, my response could be only, "So what? Shit just sometimes happens." But you know what ... sometimes it happens the other way, too.
So concern yourself with trying to find coin-flips at +110 and just ignore the butterflies and slamming doors. You shouldn't in general be trying to "predict winners", you should be trying to estimate probabilities.Comment -
Check live lines on any given day and see how little the lines move you might find one decent movement every couple of days out of 15 daily games of a double digits due to some injury report that the star pitcher jacked off too hard and hurt his hand, but other than that it's 5 cent movements open to close religiously
Poker is luck, trust me, I played that game for 2-3 years and I assure you beyond the shadow of a doubt that it is pure luck, you will see entirely different ppl at ever final table for the next 20 years b/c it is pure fukin luck, live with it, want a game that's all mental, pull out a chess board and try to beat a computer, that's skill poker is luck.
You can't overcome the vig in MLB, I assure you, period. Take my word for that and write it in stone, if you are paying full vig (nonexchange vig) there is no way to win at MLB outside of luck, the lines only move 5 cents b/c the openers are virtually perfect everytime anyway, trust me, my name is betTILimbroke and I've been betting for along time without going broke b/c I focus on games (football) that I've won at the last 3 seasons in a row. Either way BOL to you on your bets durito, you seem like a very intelligent guy, I hope you can understand the difference between sports that are affected minimally vs. maximally by luck.Comment -
Let me ask you this:
Do you think you could win at baseball if you could bet into openers the next day right before the game? kind of like the contests here sometimesComment -
Maybe a small amount, but only b/c occasionally injury reports, new info, etc moves a line dramatically every couple of days, barring psychic info it cannot be done, the only ppl coming out ahead at MLB are the lucky and the ppl who win money off CW then forget to pay when they loseComment -
I don't know what to tell you since you are obviously convinced, but this just isn't true. There are people on this board making their livings primarily off of betting baseball. They surely all have well designed models and work very hard, but it certainly can be done.Originally posted by bettilimbroke999
A blind monkey can make $10,000 betting SIA's off market lines in a summer. Let someone bet into openers at game time and you could make a fortune.Comment -
lloks like a great article durito i will read it later for sureComment -
Like I've been saying over and over to myself fvck baseball, but still bet on it anyways. Gotta to support my habit.Comment -
Don't let this post get anywhere near the Think Tank. Doing so might lend people the impression that it is remotely accurate.
As always, just because you can't beat something doesn't mean other people can't. Baseball is the easiest sport to beat for the mathematically inclined.
The same bit of wisdom applies to poker. You are likely a terrible poker player if you think that poker is purely luck. While there is a significant amount of luck over one particular session (tournaments have higher variance than deep stack cash games), you really start to see the difference pretty quickly. Advantage gambling, particularly sports and blackjack, is about repeatedly finding small edges and exploiting them. Locks and "picking winners" is for squares.Comment
