Originally posted by juuso
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Right on the moneyComment -
You are missing my point friend. I will never lose a bet due to my star unexpectadely sitting out because I wait to see the lineup card. Exactly my point bro!! If you think that betting 20games a day for small is more profitable that one game every few days for big, then so be it. I dont! The juice is killing you!Comment -
How often do Pujols and Rodriguez surprisingly miss games?
And for every one surprise game a big bat misses, there are 100 games that they don't and you get a worse price than the opening line.
And it often really doesn't matter if they do miss, other players are capable of filling their shoes on a one game basis, and it is possible they could do very well.Comment -
I don't care about the amount. I will leave it up to you. Who holds it, I really don't care as long as it's a poster that I know and trust. I don't think you are going to get a mod to hold it, but you can try. The contest lasts until the end of Baseball. Just read the rules that LT posted. It's pretty self explanatory. But you can place up to three picks a day and you have to have a minimum of 60 picks and a max of 125 by the end of the contest. Whoever finishes higher in the contest pays the other.Originally posted by SteeltownComment -
Like I said, check todays games and you will find a huge player surprisingly out. It happens almost daily. If you are betting big every few days, you cant have landing on that game. You just cant have it. Its not worth not waiting for that lineup
to make a few extra dollars. I understand your guys's concept if you are betting many games everyday. In this case one game wont hurt you. In my case it will!
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I assume by betting big you mean you place a large percentage of your bankroll on each wager.Originally posted by SteeltownLike I said, check todays games and you will find a huge player surprisingly out. It happens almost daily. If you are betting big every few days, you cant have landing on that game. You just cant have it. Its not worth not waiting for that lineup to make a few extra dollars. I understand your guys's concept if you are betting many games everyday. In this case one game wont hurt you. In my case it will!Comment -
I just got here so I know zero posters and trust zero posters. If it cant be a mod it has to be a book. Is it too late to post picks for today? I know I read picks had to be in by 1 eastern and yet many are still placing there picks. What am i missing? Id like to do it for either 500 or a thousand. Are you game?Comment -
No, thats not what I mean. When I say big, I mean over 5 grand. My bankroll or bank account or my worth could be 10 million dollars. And no Im not saying i have ten mill. Im just saying big is over 5 grand to me.Comment -
If you can get Steel to see his way to using Kelly, you may have a better chance at opening his eyes. He seems to take everything I say as a call out when I am only trying to help. The answer to his bankroll question (I am typing this before his answer) should clue us in to his bankroll managemant style.Originally posted by element1286Comment -
If those are true, then you are only betting .05 percent of your bankroll, which is by no means big.Originally posted by SteeltownComment -
Thats not true Shooter. I think we are just shooting the shit. Im not offended by anything you are saying. No call outs heard bro! We just disagree. Nothing wrong with that.Comment -
I think the rules read that the Lines for the contest would be posted by 1 PM Est. But you can make plays up till game time. So yes you can make your play for today still.Originally posted by Steeltown
Either of those dollar amounts is fine by me. I just posted in your other thread for Crazyl to act on our behalf. I am waiting for an answer.Comment -
I dont care how much money a guy has. If you are betting 5 grand on a sporting event, you are a big player. Like I said, I dont have 10million. Most guys bet 10 bucks a game. This I know. It cracks me up when guys betting 10 a game try and tell me how to bet. And Im not talking about you guys. 5 grand is huge to 99.9999% of gamblers on here!Comment -
It matters because of how big your bankroll is. If you are betting 10 dollars per game, and have a 500 dollar bankroll you are betting 2% of your bankroll. And if you are betting 1000 game and have a 50000 you are betting 2% of your bankroll. It is the same size bet in comparison to your bankroll, which does matter.Originally posted by SteeltownComment -
I think I understand the rules now. It will be whoever finishes better between me and you right? Now lets find the right place to send our cash. Do you have an account at Betonline? Will they do something like that? Ive never done this before.Comment -
If you only have 500 bucks and still gamble you are a ****in degenerate and need GA now!! i understand the math dude. My point is that 5 grand is a big bet period!Comment -
I don't think you understand the math, you haven't done any. All you said was 5000 dollars is a lot of money.Originally posted by SteeltownComment -
OK Deniro. Only you understand the math. What do you mean I havent done any? Im saying i get your 2% bankroll spill. Its not that hard to get. I know all about it. If you want to ask me a question then go ahead. Stop being a littl
e sneaky rat!!! And show me where I said 5 grand was a lot of money. You cant. Why do you posters love to lie and take shit out of context. I never said 5 grand was a lot of money. I said 5 grand is a large bet to 99.99999% of every human being out there rat!
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I asked before how much of your bankroll you bet on each game.Originally posted by SteeltownOK Deniro. Only you understand the math. What do you mean I havent done any? Im saying i get your 2% bankroll spill. Its not that hard to get. I know all about it. If you want to ask me a question then go ahead. Stop being a littl e sneaky rat!!!Comment -
If you are talking about your post #41, that is not asking me anything. Again, try honesty. People like honest fellows. Do you want me to add up my total worth( property, vehicles, stocks, cd's, 401k,etc) and then tell you what % of that I place on any individual game? If you are that broke I suggest finding another hobby Robert!Comment -
Nevermind.Originally posted by SteeltownComment -
I have an account with them for the contest but I don't use them to wager. They would not hold this for us. I suggested matchbook because they are an exchange and we can set this up as an exchange wager and even have others come in and place some wagers too. Other than that, we need someone to hold the wagers for us that we both agree upon.Originally posted by Steeltown
Shark, can you set this up one time for me? I am sure the winner would reward you for your efforts.Comment -
Good. So Shooter, what shall we do?Comment -
What do you mean have some others come in and place some wagers too. I dont trust sharks. Or rats! Or snakes. How about puppy?Comment -
Im all alone. I gotta go. That doesnt mean I dont want to do this. Im definitely in. Ill check back later and see what you figured out.Comment -
I strongly strongly disagree with what Steeltown is saying. In fact, his reasoning borders the absurd.
You should begin by making the least number of assumptions about baseball team lineups. Like The Hg said, lineups remain relatively stable throughout the course of a season. Of course injuries happen and it's important to know those type of things, but by and large you should expect almost the same lineup on a day in and day out basis.
It's pointless and a huge waste of time to assume that perhaps a star player might be sitting this one out. Unless there is any reason that a player might be out, you should assume that he is playing.
The thing is that baseball betting markets become more efficient asthe day goes by so waiting until a lineup is announced means you will almost always be taking the worst of it in terms of betting price. So basically you are arguing that we should all wait till a lineup is announced a half hour before hand to bet a game? I don't think so....
In short, your business model is that we should sacrifice almost all value in a game so that we can confirm information that we already knew was going to be true all along?Comment -
Originally posted by Steeltown
I wouldn't laugh to hard. Contrary to popular belief, betting size and betting success are not correlated. If they were, sportsbooks would be broke. I'd try to listen a little bit more to what many on here are trying to tell you and not worry how much a guy bets. That is a very poor gauge for determing who is a good gambler and who is not.Comment -
Shark is another poster here that may be able to help us out.Originally posted by Steeltown
With an exchange type wager you can get others interested in our results by them putting bid and ask prices into the wager that is placed at an exchange type place like matchbook. It's similar to option prices in stocks. We have our wager, but then others can make their own wagers on our outcome. Check out Matchbook when you get a chance.Comment -
On the money.Originally posted by BuddyBear
I haven't seen you post much here in a while BB. You usually don't mix it up with these types. You coming to the ghetto to post today?
Glad to have you and Element here trying to sway the masses. Let's educate him AFTER i get this wager put together with him!!!
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I never once said that I was a good bettor. I also never said that if you bet big you are a good bettor. I also never said that if you bet small you are a bad bettor. I only said that I dont like people betting 10 a game to tell me how to bet. Something tells me that if you were betting ten grand on a game, for whatever reason, whether this was your last ten G or 10% of your bankroll, or 3 %, you would want to make sure that if you were betting the lets say Rangers, you would want to make sure Hamilton was playing. This is my opinion and I already said that if you are betting many games a day at small amounts, i understand why your way makes more sense in the long haul of a season. If you are picking your spots and only betting say one game a week, you are an idiot not to do this! But hey, youre the big winner here right guy?
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There are instances when the lineup might be interesting to look at. For example, a thursday afternoon game which is the 10th game of an 11 day road trip. Or a night when a key player left the game early last night or if a guy is said to be day to day. But the reality remains, betting lineups are highly stable. You can and should expect the same set of players in there on a daily basis unless there is reason to expect otherwise.
In addition, this is an empirical question. Meaning you can actually test it. You could set up a study to determine whether some teams are better w/o certain players. Identify the best 1 or 2 players on a team and take that record and compare it to when they are out. I think you'll find not much of a difference.
In the end it's up to you. If you want to be sacrifice value for the sake of confirming information in which you expected to be true anyway, then that's up to you. But do realize that the vast majority of bettors do not and will not follow this bit of poor advice you've presented here.Comment -
Most bettors dont have the patience to wait until an hour before the game. Im not confirming anything in actuality, I will bet the other team if 1 or 2 big players are out. Ill take my chances betting against the cards wout Pujols and Ankiel. I just dont want to bet 5 grand on the cards and be wout those guys. If you dont see the difference between betting many games daily and betting 1 game a week, you arent as bright as you think. You obviously bet many games daily for a small % of your roll so why are you even arguing what its like to be someone who doesnt do that? Im not sacraficing value becaue I wouldnt bet on that team if I knew that player was out.Comment -
I agree with pretty much everything BB mentioned. Although I'd like to add that generally the only changes in lineups are the utility players of a team. Some managers will insert certain players into the lineup when they are facing a lefty starter vs. a righty starter. Outside of that, injuries (of course), and some certain day games, the lineup does in fact remain pretty stable for most games.Comment -
This is my last post on the topic. Which turned out o be pretty popular. I will wait until the lineups come out tonite and then proove to you that there will be a few guys who unexpectadely sit out. Ill get back to you at 3:30.Comment -
BB, I think the lineup situation that you listed is true, but I would think the adjusted price is already present in the market. If not, then the number would be off the board. Especially 60 minutes prior to game time.Originally posted by BuddyBear
Now whether the old vs new price presents a +EV situation then that is another topic entirely. But just waiting to 60 minutes prior and fading the lineup because some key player is not in the lineup is trouble because the new number is already priced to the market. I think we both agree on this.
2 centsComment
