How can you bet a baseball game without knowing whos in the lineup? What if you love say the Cardinals or Yankees. You bet it early to save a few cents and then see that Pujols or A Rod is resting. Do you still love the Cards and Yanks? Would you have bet these teams if you knew these guys were resting? Of course not. I figured this out a few years ago and Ive done much better since. Baseball is the only sport where this is an absolute must. 1 hour before the game go online and check that lineup to make sure your boyz are playing! GL
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I jump on the opening line all the time. It's the way I bet.Comment -
Only time you have to worry about this is on Mondays, or after a night game, then afternoon game.Comment -
Suicide dude! The game of B-Ball relies to much on 1 guy in the lineup to risk it. Unless you are a tiny bettor where its no big deal.Comment -
Not true at all 5 teamer! Guys sit out nowadays for ach
y toe nails and tummy aches. You know that. How about Manny sitting out for no reason. What if you had the Sox that day? Everyday is important to check that card before wagering! I promise you you will have a higher winning % if you do this easy thing that takes all of 3 minutes to check every card for every game. Its good to let these games you think you like the night before marinate in your mind for a while anyways.
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The opening line is where the value is. The only player who significantly impacts changes in the line is SP. If that changes, my bet becomes void.
Granted losing a Pujols or Arod would be a tough break if you're on one of those teams, but those are the chances you take to get a good price.Comment -
There is no value in the Cards -145 if Pujols sits! You are talking about winning a few more dollars as opposed to losing your bet outright. Who the heck is SP? If you think that Pujols sitting or even Chipper sitting wouldnt impact the line, I think you are in the wrong biz.Comment -
sp=starting pitcherComment -
Sickler I noticed you were betting LA tonite because you said Manny was in the lineup. Strange how you are betting on a team because of one single player but you just stated that no individual player except the SP would affect the line. HMMM
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all the time, you have to assume the lineup will be thats teams best or know when a particular player is out, can't wait till the lineups get posted.Comment -
Son, I've been doing this for twenty years. Pujols or chipper sitting would impact the line, but not like a change from the ace SP to a journeyman SP.Originally posted by Steeltown
Thing is, you get the same line all the squares get. If you don't know what SP stands for, you should be betting another sport.Comment -
Originally posted by SteeltownSickler I noticed you were betting LA tonite because you said Manny was in the lineup. Strange how you are betting on a team because of one single player but you just stated that no individual player except the SP would affect the line. HMMM
I played it yesterday, at a much better price than you'd get now.Comment -
Had you said "the SP" I think I would have gotten it. Look how you put it. Lets just agree to disagree. Why would it be impossible to wait for the lineup to come out? You have a full hour before the game. Lets check the games/lineups today and Ill guarantee you that there will be at least one game where a guy that we dont expect to sit that will sit. Now imagine the guy who has 10 large on that team! We all know that there are many players who are in and out of the lineups nowadays due to minor nagging injuries this time of season. Ordonez, Sheffield, Ankiel, Damon, Blaylock,just to name a few. Ive been doing this for 20 years as well and I guess its just a little edge I like to have.
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Checking the lineups is important, but they are actually not all that variable, they are mostly quite predictable. If you identify an early line that you like and think will move away from you, it is much more valuable to take the early line than to wait to make sure there are no lineup surprises.Comment -
I bet mostly overnight too, you can get a general idea of what the lineup is based on what a team has used in the past vs. lefties or righties. And like sickler said, if you cap a game right there is quite often more value in the opening line than the line right before game time.Comment -
Totally 100% disagree. If you are a large player and you bet a team only to find out there big hitter is out, you are ****ed! I understand this happens very very rarely but we are talking about 10 grand or so! Its not worth that chance in order to make an extra 450$. Are you willing to risk 10 grand in order to make 450$? I agree with this in football where the line may go from 2.5 to 3 or something but in baseball we arent dealing with a line.Comment -
I do if I believe the #s show that a total will go OVER or UNDER and I'm confident the offenses can beat the pitchers regardless of any small lineup changes.Comment -
Doesn't most sharp money come in early?Originally posted by SteeltownComment -
I always check the injury reports. If someone is going to be sitting out, they are listed as probable or questionable. So then you can delay your bet to see how things play out by game time.Comment -
BingoOriginally posted by onlòókerComment -
I guess you consider Pujols or A rod a small lineup change. I dont! I doubt Im betting a Card game over if Pujols aint pllaying. Especially for 10 grand. But hey, we both know that books arent
taking big bets overnight anyway so why talk as if you are placing a big bet on a total overnight? Do you really think that in bases an injury is the only reason a guy sits? How about a day to day injury where you just dont know?
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1. The opener is the weakest # no matter what anyone else tries to tell you. The year in and year out edge betting into the opener will more than outweigh the occasional lineup change.Originally posted by Steeltown
2. If there is really a question about the starting lineup, then the game won't even be on the board for you to bet. If it's up, then everyone posting that # is very sure about the lineup for the game. This is their job.
3. If the once or twice a year surprise lineup change effects the opinion of the wagerer after placeing a wager at the opener, then they always have time to hedge the other side before gametime once the official lineup is posted.Comment -
Some of us bet everyday for 100$ a game and some of us pick our spots and load up. I know which one of these you are and I will do what works for large bettors who pick their spots. It seems to me you guys are confusing baseball with football when you talk about injury reports and books knowing whos going to play in each baseball game. Get in the game kid! The truth is you cant even bet what Im talking about overnight anyways so its irrelevant.
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Well then, why don't you start posting your picks in here and we can ride them if they are that good. What is your current win record for baseball?Originally posted by SteeltownSome of us bet everyday for 100$ a game and some of us pick our spots and load up. I know which one of these you are and I will do what works for large bettors who pick their spots. It seems to me you guys are confusing baseball with football when you talk about injury reports and books knowing whos going to play in each baseball game. Get in the game kid! The truth is you cant even bet what Im talking about overnight anyways so its irrelevant.
I am not a kid, I am 41 so please don't call me one. I have been in the game going on my 21st year this Sept.
Someone said it best in this Forum and I will steal their quote:
"Read more, and post less"
This is something that I have come to learn in the last few months here and I suggest you look into it. There are some very knowledgable posters here that know a lot more than my collect 21 years at sports gambling.
Your idea of betting larger amounts on spot games with the new changed lineup is not an edge.
This is the nugget that I have taken recently from these posters: It is more lucrative to have 57% winners over 5000 wagers than to have 65% winners over 100 wagers. Took me a long time to get over that misnomer that has been with me for 21 years. Old habits die hard. What sealed the idea with me was a quote like this. "If you are picking 65% then you are not betting enough games." That stuck with me and says it all, if you really understand it.
My Two CentsComment -
Since you mis quoted everything I said I really shouldnt waste my time with you. #1. I never said you should bet into those games that have lineup moves. I simply said that you should wait to see whos playing before betting bases. No more no less. Where did you get your wild story? Im also not saying betting bigger is better. I simply said that you cant bet big overnight so its irrelevant to say I should bet big early. Name one book that lets you bet more than a dime overnight. And finally, I never once said that Im good at picking winners at any sport. Show me where I did. Again, I simply explained my betting patterns and why I cant bet the early line for large amounts. Exactly. Stick to the facts senior!Comment -
Then post your picks and we shall see. Did you miss the question about your baseball record this year? Or are you choosing to ignore that?Originally posted by SteeltownComment -
Read my last post again senior! If you would like I would be happy to post my picks for the day. Would you like to have a contest or something where someone holds our cash? Are you that confident?Comment -
Did you sign up for the down the stretch contest? That would be a fair example of your capping abilty. 60-125 wagers over the last two months of baseball. It's a very small test sample but at least it's something you can hang your hat on.Comment -
Sure, I am up for it.Originally posted by SteeltownComment -
I just got here so Ive joined no contests. I never have. Look whos ignoring questions now senior! Id be happy to send some money to a neutral party llike Bill and have a nice little contest with you. You can even pick the rules. You know like early lines and putting in your picks early. Ha Ha!! I promise I wont wait until I see the lineups since that would be a huge advantage to me right?
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And I read your post again and on the SECOND read it still doesn't shed any light on your Baseball record for this year. I don't even see any numerals in that post.Originally posted by Steeltown
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I honestly dont keep track of my record. Just my money! Lets just say that my most recent book kicked me out after 10 days for winning too much. Ask Bill if you dont believe me.Comment -
This arrangement will have to be done outside this Forum. The Mods have frowned lately on wagers placed between posters. They end up losing a poster because one stiffs the other. We can set it up on Matchbook. What's the wager?
Also we can just use this contest that LT is running as an outcome. Whoever places higher in the contest wins. Agreed?Comment -
I just read the rules for that contest. I already have a betonline acct. but its past 1 eastern so how do we get picks for today in? How much are we wagering and who holds money? I have no acct. at matchbook.Comment -
If losing a bet on an unlikely occasion a star batter will unexpectedly sit out, will hurt you too much, you are most probably overstaking on single events. Spreading your bank around with many small bets each day is much better idea than spot betting big. Spot betting big you just leave yourself vulnerable to bad luck even if you handicap your games well and bet valuable lines.
Bottom line you might also benefit from this, when the team you bet against has to give day off to their star. Anyway, in general opening lines are softer and offers more overall value.Comment
