Youtube video (re gambling)

[durito]

No. my contention is, regardless of any odds it was random and it will always be random which means if you're LUCKY you'll win and if you can randomly go on a good run you'll show a profit but over time you'll lose.
I've gotta go out.

So, by your logic, just bet every bet you can find at +odds and you will clean up.

[Nicky Santoro]

mikey, there's no such thing as luck.. all gamblers say, i am unlucky.. whatever. this is bullsht. they lose because the #'s catch up to them eventually.


hearty, you see, 6 yrs winning in a row, and now you lose 1st year.. be careful, this couild be the start of you going down. i hope not for you.. it is happening to me hearty..

hearty, i have wagered offshore now for 15 yrs.. my first 13 yrs were all winning winning winning, never had a losing year.

well, in the last 2 yrs, i have given back 8 of my 13 yrs of profit.. i was up so fckin big, now i am giving it back. it's biting me in the ass hearty. and i get greaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat #'s.. if i was laying -110, i'd have been broke back in 94.. i wouldn't be here today.

[durito]

Gambling markets have become more efficient in recent years.

In the 1990's you could just blindly bet home underdogs in the NFL and hit 55%. It's not like that anymore. You need to be constantly evaluating and working on your strategies.

[donjuan]

No. my contention is, regardless of any odds it was random and it will always be random which means if you're LUCKY you'll win and if you can randomly go on a good run you'll show a profit but over time you'll lose.
I've gotta go out.

The point is that it is random to some extent, but that it is predictable in that each game has an associated set of probabilities for each possible result occurring and the result is basically just a point on that probability distribution.

[accuscoresucks]

i must be such a degenerate every year for the last 8 years i always hit almost 70% at one sport or another

no their no way to make a living at it this why
3000[investments] x $300 avg per investment @ 7% return = 63k
what am i thinking i cannot make a living,fuuk me i guess ill go to mcdonalds and get a job

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/57437-7-1-past-2-days-huge-thursday-play-writeup-also.html

you stupid accu thinking you can make a living ha ha

go check my record go check my record go check my record

this isnt a fuuking game and i bet less than 1% actually do make a living at it

[englishmike]

The point is that it is random to some extent, but that it is predictable in that each game has an associated set of probabilities for each possible result occurring and the result is basically just a point on that probability distribution.

Thank you. So you accept you're betting on a probability that can also lose? If you are, that's my point. More people get this probability guess wrong than get it right.

[englishmike]

So, by your logic, just bet every bet you can find at +odds and you will clean up.

Please forget about odds for a moment. My logic is, no matter what price someone puts on a game, the game still has to be played and you still have to be correct.

[englishmike]

The point is that it is random to some extent, but that it is predictable in that each game has an associated set of probabilities for each possible result occurring and the result is basically just a point on that probability distribution.

I accept what you say. Do you accept that EVERY day, favourites lose and dogs win?

[flyingillini]

Great video. Gambling for me is a strictly leisure activity. I like to do it and I will be honest, of course I lose my ass each year. I would rather lose in gambling then doing some yayo daily...I have a very nice life, I make great money, I own property and my home and have money to gamble. I would never ever bet with money I do not have.

[durito]

Please forget about odds for a moment. My logic is, no matter what price someone puts on a game, the game still has to be played and you still have to be correct.

So if I offer you +110 on Head flipping a coin and you bet it and it hits tails, did you make a bad bet?

You will lose this bet 50% of the time, but if you can bet it thousands of times, you will win a lot.

By your logic, bookmakers wouldn't be profitable either, as it would be impossible to set an efficient line.

[englishmike]

Do you know anyone that offers +110 on head flipping? if you do it's a valid argument, if you don't it's kinda baseless because now you're saying IF I knew someone who was willing to give you the wrong odds and IF it came up in your favour you would win.

[RealSlimShady]

mikey, there's no such thing as luck.. all gamblers say, i am unlucky.. whatever. this is bullsht. they lose because the #'s catch up to them eventually.

Good point, Nicky!

People tend to remember bad beats and forget the good ones they get. Over time, luck will even out.

[englishmike]

I asked you a question earlier and you didn't answer it, so to simplify this whole thing I just want you to answer two questions for me: 1) Concentrating on the USA, of the bilions and billions wagered per-year, how many people (%) of gamblers would you say win? I know there is no way of checking this number I just want your best guess. I'm interested because I want to know why you think gambling companies and corporations can be beaten when, time alone says they can't.

2) Do dogs win and favourites lose EVERY single day?

[RealSlimShady]

1) I'd say 1-3% win.

2) No.

[durito]

I asked you a question earlier and you didn't answer it, so to simplify this whole thing I just want you to answer two questions for me: 1) Concentrating on the USA, of the bilions and billions wagered per-year, how many people (%) of gamblers would you say win? I know there is no way of checking this number I just want your best guess. I'm interested because I want to know why you think gambling companies and corporations can be beaten when, time alone says they can't.

2) Do dogs win and favourites lose EVERY single day?

1) I have no idea. But just because you don't know people that can do it, does not mean it is not done. There are several people that post on this board that do it quite successful.

2) Of course they do.

[chipski]

sports forums , how to book for dummies , everyone knows but do they really

chipski,you said covers would have a great conversation on this topic of nickys thread,has covers changed alot?

last time i was there it was alot of young people and college kids with very little experience in wagering,pretty worthless except for the stats but forum wise it was the pits.

i'm not really sure how legit it is or how many people they have that are on there alot ..
i would think though that 95% of the feedback would be people bucking the video and saying how they made this and that and people giving HOW TO DO IT posts ..
the thread would be like buying a HOW TO BET SPORTS FOR DUMMIES BOOK .

there would be very little feedback knocking sports betting right . the places/forums you go on to find that kind of talk are not gambling sports forums .. duh

i did like the video and i can relate and what nicky is saying has been true for all of us , some days more than others .
depends on the moves you make for each day in question .
is all up to each person in the moves they make .

THE THOUGHT IS THE CAUSE OF IT ALL

[englishmike]

1) So it's possible to win yet only several people on this board know how to do it?

2) If dogs win and favourites lose doesn't that prove it's random? If you pick correctly you'll win, if you don't you'll lose, you have absolutely no control over the outcome so your money is riding on your perceived skill at picking a random event with many random outcomes, of which you've only backed one.

Just my two cents.

[donjuan]

I accept what you say. Do you accept that EVERY day, favourites lose and dogs win?

Um, yes, that's kind of the idea.

[durito]

That's a ridiculous.

A -270 favorite assuming no vig is expected to lose more than 25% of the time.

That does not make it random. If these events are so unpredictable, how do bookmakers set lines?

Are you asserting that betting markets are perfectly efficient and thus they aren't beatable? If so, then the whole randomness argument doesn't make sense.

[englishmike]

Im asserting the whole thing is a guess and most people are wrong.

[durito]

Im asserting the whole thing is a guess and most people are wrong.

So then do bookmakers posses a wigi board or what?

[englishmike]

That's a ridiculous.

A -270 favorite assuming no vig is expected to lose more than 25% of the time.

That does not make it random. If these events are so unpredictable, how do bookmakers set lines?

Are you asserting that betting markets are perfectly efficient and thus they aren't beatable? If so, then the whole randomness argument doesn't make sense.

As soon as a game starts it's random, just like a snowflake, all different and every singl one random. Just because a bookie puts a price on something and says: '25% of the time this should lose,' doesn't change the fact that anything can happen as soon as that game starts. I don't get what is so hard to understand about that, I don't care if you spin acoin 1000 times andone thousand times it's heads, it doesn't change the fact the next time you spin it's still 50-50.

[Stacocakes]

Nicky if you can always get the best lines why don't you arbitrage or scalp bet? You would make alot doing that if you can get lines better then everyone else

[englishmike]

So then do bookmakers posses a wigi board or what?

No. As you know, bookmakers build in a mathematical calculation that ensures profit, called juice. A bookie doesn't gve a fvck who wins as long as there is action both ways.

[donjuan]

As soon as a game starts it's random, just like a snowflake, all different and every singl one random. Just because a bookie puts a price on something and says: '25% of the time this should lose,' doesn't change the fact that anything can happen as soon as that game starts. I don't get what is so hard to understand about that, I don't care if you spin acoin 1000 times andone thousand times it's heads, it doesn't change the fact the next time you spin it's still 50-50.

Not everything is 50/50 in sports though, hence the different prices. If everything was 50/50 you could just take any line better than +100 and be up huge. If that isn't the case, the above post makes no sense.

[durito]

Why then do bookmakers limit or boot players?

You said they don't go out of business, but actually they do all the time.

Why are my limits $5 at your favorite book Bet 3.65

[donjuan]

No. As you know, bookmakers build in a mathematical calculation that ensures profit, called juice. A bookie doesn't gve a fvck who wins as long as there is action both ways.

This is also not true. Many (smart) books book unbalanced action on purpose, while at the same time managing risk

[Nicky Santoro]

Nicky if you can always get the best lines why don't you arbitrage or scalp bet? You would make alot doing that if you can get lines better then everyone else

stacks,

very impressive question on your part. and the answer is because i am an action junkie. i am bored. i need action.. and when you sit there for 3 hr hoping a game lands 188, 189 or 190, it is not fun.. but very profitable ove the long haul.. and when you have a 10 cent scalp and you are going to make 150 bucks or break even, and you need the dog to win the 150, this too aint fun.. i need the rush stacks. i am a sick man.. i used to scalp in the old days and it was great. you cant have a losing year.. you only win.

[chipski]

Catch It ! Run With It ! Make It Happen !

Im asserting the whole thing is a guess and most people are wrong.

if this was true some things would never occur ..
like what ?
good teams reel off 7 - 10 games in a row , ml and cover the spread in all sports ..

you catch em and double down each time and because you believed in what you are doing equals success $ wise . if you have never done it many times then you would not be qualified to judge ..

after effects
because you made this happen and were not negative and afraid .
1 . you made alot of $$
2 . this small window of time sets up more $ making opps because we all know you have to have a big chunk to continue to do well with no worries ..

it can be like the dominoe effect . positive or negative .
the first thing someone needs is a good positive attitude .
no different than with any other endeavor .
unless you are a bouncer or ... lol
i guess you can have a negative attitude and bet the patriots on the side out the gate the first 7 games doubling down each time and make a half a million dollars ..
it would not matter if you believed it would happen or not , just as long as you put up the $ each time completing the 7 game cycle .

patriots are just 1 example .
unc in ncaab came out the gate covering all their games ..
in the nba you catch a good team on a long homestand and you can capture this $/feat and put it on your resume/belt .
the positive money making opps like this are endless just like the losing stories . is always ying and yang annnnnnndddddddddddddd THE THOUGHT IS ALWAYS AND I MEAN ALWAYS THE CAUSE OF IT ALL

[Stacocakes]

If you are down and losing money though scalping or arbing will get you back some money.May take longer but at least you won't risk any further losing days

[englishmike]

Not everything is 50/50 in sports though, hence the different prices. If everything was 50/50 you could just take any line better than +100 and be up huge. If that isn't the case, the above post makes no sense.

Just because you've been given a price you still need to GUESS the outcome of that game correctly. To simplify, you give your money to a bookmaker whilst you guess the outcome of the game and if you win he gives it back plus your winnings. It was a guess in a random event despite what price you were given.

[donjuan]

Just because you've been given a price you still need to GUESS the outcome of that game correctly. To simplify, you give your money to a bookmaker whilst you guess the outcome of the game and if you win he gives it back plus your winnings. It was a guess in a random event despite what price you were given.

You don't understand advantage gambling. Congrats.

[Nicky Santoro]

stacks, i need the money now.. not in 48 months. i wish i did this today. i swear to god.. if ATL lose.. 1-4 today.. i had CUBS minus the big number.. atl was my only hope and now i am down big again. it doesnt end for me stacks. 21 losing days in a row now. i have dropped huuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuge money in the last 21 days..


i would have to scalp for 4 yrs before i make back what i lost the last 20 days.. but if i get really hot like i did from jan to july, i can make it all back in 1.5 months..

[englishmike]

Why then do bookmakers limit or boot players?

You said they don't go out of business, but actually they do all the time.

Why are my limits $5 at your favorite book Bet 3.65

I think some books limit players because they are bean counting and run by accountants and that's the way they do buisness.

[englishmike]

You don't understand advantage gambling. Congrats.

The world is full of people who say they win at gambling. Congrats.