Youtube video (re gambling)

[Nicky Santoro]

but people were probably laying action while watching your video.

good one panic.. but i bet people were probably saying,, sht the fck up ashole.. i had enough of you.. and clicked the X probably 1 min in,

and then went to put in their bets..


I hope not.. but this is probably reality. but panic, i know this is a disease.. because i bet too.. why?? because it's a high.. it's like drugs. nothing beats it.. it's my crack pipe.. what else am i going to do on a monday night? watch a show, or read a book.. gambing passes the night and puts you on the edge..

its very sad, but i just dont want the people here to actually think they will make a living here, cause they wont.. they will land on their heads very hard.. trust me.. and you can take that to the bank.. their lives will be ruined.. their wives will leave them. very sad..

[Nicky Santoro]

Hey Nick while this break down is good and all but... How do you explain not having a losing season in the past 3 years were I have came up long term betting NBA, NCAA and NFL?

gordie, there could be many reasons.. i can look at your plays and tell you immediately why you are up... i'd have to see your style of bets.

first of all.. do you bet enough games? do you play 2 or 3 games a day or 2 games a week?

do you have edges? do you beat the closing line all the time?

do you never lay -110..

and are you sure you are up and are accurate with your #'s.. i dont know one gambler that doesnt say he is up lifetime if you ask him, even if he is down 100 dimes.. i am not saying you are lying, but gamblers have a bad habit of counting their wins and not counting their losses. they tend to forget the losses quickly. i see it everyday with my friends. my 3 casino buddies have to be down like 23 dimes lifetime, and when i ask them how they are doing lifetime, they all say, i am up, or very close to it..
yeah right.

[donjuan]

NO ONE WILL WIN, trust me.

Just because you can't handle a losing streak and don't follow Kelly doesn't mean others can't. This type of misinformation is dangerous as it's the type of thinking amongst the uninformed that lead to UIGEA in the first place.

[Heartman2]

Sorry Nickyyyy, but some people do win longterm. I qiut my pizza delivery job on July 25th, 2004 and went BANKROLL ONLY, no other source of income, (with 2 exceptions) till June 23rd 2007 betting Nascar only.

IT'S DOCUMENTED NICKY!!! I posted over 1000 picks at majorwager Pit Lane, so do a search if you don't believe me. I HAVE FUKKIN PROOF that I kicked the books @ss at MW.

Not just any books, Nicky, I kicked thegreeks, pinnacle and sportsbook.coms @ss and posted my picks. I started the 2004 season with $947 and only used 4 books and became a PROFESSIONAL GAMBLER. I'll repeat, It's documented!

I don't give a fuk if anyone believes me or not, I POSTED MY FUKKIN PICKS, so shove that up your @ss those who don't believe me!!!

THE GREATEST ADVICE IN GAMBLING IS THIS, YOU MUST SPECIALIZE!!!
YOU MUST SPECIALIZE!!! YOU MUST SPECIALIZE!!!It's your only chance to win long term, in my opinion.

It's not about getting the best number, It's about being more knowledgable or better than the man or group making the lines. If you can do that, you will will. I went BANKROLL ONLY for 35 months with this gambling philosophy beating the best books in the world and posted my picks. END OF STORY!!!

[Nicky Santoro]

donny,

how come i knew you'd be in here, and probably a few more too will come in here and disagree with me. it's only normal. first of all donny, i said 1 in 2000, and i stick by it. .or anyone that lays -110.. i also listed 7 ways to make money gambling, and you'd have to follow it to a tee.. so you can make money gambling, but it is very very tough and if you are making money gambling over the very long haul, you are one of the very very very few..

i am up lifetime too. .but in the last 2 yrs, i have given back a bundle.. but when i was a bookie, the money was pouring in.. nobody ever won.. when we lost, we lost minimal amount. when we won, everyone got cleaned out.

it is very tough to win and UNLESS you are beating numbers left and right and not betting off the top of your head and laying -110, you are done.. this message was for the sbr posters that lay -110..

so unless you have enough discipline to do my 6 or 7 things on the list (which is still tough), then you have a chance.. and yes, you can make money, but it will still be a grind..

[chipski]

i would be interested to see what kind of feedback you would get if this video was in say covers.com forum . would be intersting to say the least . not that covers is something special but i bet there would be alot of real feedback ..

what you are saying is true at facevalue more or less about the books advantages and #s but what each person does as AN INDIVIDUAL does not necessarily bear any reflection to what you do as AN INDIVIDUAL .
that is one of the greatest beauties of life . what you eat doesn't make me shi!

it would seem the majority will lose at gambling because more do it as entertainment and to get a rush like you were saying as one of the reasons you do it , for a rush is no different than any other bad vice . so if a person fits into that category then they should probably find a more inexpensive rush/hobby .
keep in mind not everyone has a junkie mentality . because you or your neighbor may have bad tendencies really has nothing to do with the next man .

this video may in fact INFLUENCE people that have not lived the life for years .. who knows how something affects the next man . if you did a poll we could find out .. the choices would be
A. watching this video makes me want to wager more
B . made me think about giving it up
C . made me have feelings of being more cautious in how i wager my $
D . had feeling of wanting to prove the majority view wrong and had no thoughts of quitting
E . thought it was bs
F. thought the video was great but dont give a f and love gambling
G . had no real feeling about the video either way
H . none of the above i'm braindead

to think i see things like this is a place designed to make people smarter really leaves me wanting to say wtf , no comment , pass .
but ooh wait , just remember at any time you can prove yourself wrong as well as the lame majority of the gaming world > and be great at whatever it is you are trying to do . it really doesn't matter what field it is . it all depends on how bad you want whatever it is you are trying to capture . patience , maybe you get lucky !

[Heartman2]

I had this same argument with you over at majorwager 2 or 3 years ago Nicky.

YOU MUST SPECIALIZE TO WIN LONGTERM!!!

[donjuan]

or anyone that lays -110

I lay -110 frequently. Getting the best number means getting the line with the best value, whether that is +100, -105 or -110.

[englishmike]

I'm not sure there's any debate to be had, you never see bookmakers go out of buisness. There's a reason for this. It's the same reason Vegas will comp you a room and the same reason Ladbrokes ( Uk's Biggest betting chain ) profits increase year-in-year-out. For all the people that come on here and talk about how much money you make out of gambling, I hope you make millions, I genuinely hope you win every bet you place, but please.....you can kid me, you can kid other people. Why try to kid yourself?

http://www.liverpooldailypost.co.uk/business/business-local/2007/08/10/telephone-bets-boost-ladbrokes-profits-64375-19603771/

[Nicky Santoro]

donny, i lay -110 with my locals everyday, maybe 6 games a day.. but instead of laying -3.5 -110, i lay -2-110.. i even lay -125.. when DET redwings are 5 ov 45, i lay 5 ov -125 with my local. doesn't mean it's a losing bet..

if you lay -110 at the real price, i will say.. .see ya..

i already said it, it's all about beating the closing lines and getting value.. and even at that, unless you are completely disciplined and never chase or bet games you are not supposed to, you have a decent chance. but how many really are there in this gambling world like this?? not too many.. gambling is an addiction, and alot of people do chase and bet tv games and bet games at a bad price on ESPN sun night baseball when they are bored.

tough to win donny.. it's a grind..

tough to win hearty, very tough..


once again, this vid was for the sbr posters here that lay -110 on every game..

[englishmike]

In my experience, the biggest degenerates and the people who lie the most to themseves are the people who claim they make money because they have found an 'edge.' What is an edge? Did USC have an edge over Stanford? If your edge is with a pitcher and he pitches like a dog, wheres his edge? If Manny Ramirez is batting .400 and he goes 0-5 what does that mean? Someone got out of bed yesterday morning and died in a car crash. The reason it wasn't me or you is because it was a random event, it could have been anyone. Gambling on sport is random, one team will win and one team will lose, if it was so easy to predict why would they play in the first place? If you're lucky you pick correctly. Luck has no edge. It's addictive and it's fun. if you can win, good, if you can control it, even better.

[Al Masters]

I had this same argument with you over at majorwager 2 or 3 years ago Nicky.

YOU MUST SPECIALIZE TO WIN LONGTERM!!!

Heart, from your posts i can surmise you've been around the block
and know a little bit about gambling.

I'm not trying to be a wise ass, but you got me curious.

What exactly do you specialize in?

[jgm1967]

I think most of your wagering right now nicky must be in baseball since you are talking about value plays.baseball wagering is obviuosly about finding value but I would like to hear more about what heartgram was sayin about the need to specialize.

I would like to hear his ideas,I have found over the past few years when the various seasons come around and especially in slow seasons like now I bet alot of sports and really research the forums and service plays for the best games ,I have done alot better but I would be interested in hearing other peoples opinions.

also chipski,you said covers would have a great conversation on this topic of nickys thread,has covers changed alot?

last time i was there it was alot of young people and college kids with very little experience in wagering,pretty worthless except for the stats but forum wise it was the pits.

[Heartman2]

Nascar Al. I used to watch about 200 hours of race film a season in my professional days. It was my edge over the linesmakers.

[chipski]

i agree it can be tough to win if you do parlays .
saying it is tough to win doing single wagers is pretty much a joke .
to think people go 2 - 1 and celebrate is laughable (but is how you do it going forwards)
it's beautiful .

there are people that do parlays to wager less to make more .
parlay to hit big on a calendar day ..
there are many ways at going about it ..
if you EXCLUSIVlY DO SINGLE WAGERS ONLY AND FAIL I WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO BELIEVE THAT IN A MILLION TRILLION YEARS ..

to really cut to the chase ? it is a joke to say anyone on the earth would fail doing single wagers day after day .
i normally go 7 - 3 every day . is normal . the result may be failure with the 70% on parlays , but if done on single wagers then it is a nice profit .
what i say is fact .
single wagers = no big deal , a person can do okay , no problem .
if a person parlays what he likes up then he will see more losing days than winning days .
what does this mean ? simply do single wagers means you dont put yourself in the position to have the monster day . you just do okay , nothing big . there is a big difference in letting the monster day go (SWING!) . YOU SEE IT AFTER YOU SEE THE FINAL SCORES . YOU COULD HAVE MADE 10 GRAND IF YOU PARLAYED WHAT YOU LIKED UP FOR THE DAY ..

doing single wagers at -110 is in fact alot simpler and easier than trying to hit up big on one calendar day . single wagers is in fact the way to be at -110 and most days a person would basically break even for the day which is okay .

[englishmike]

i agree it can be tough to win if you do parlays .
saying it is tough to win doing single wagers is pretty much a joke .
to think people go 2 - 1 and celebrate is laughable .

there are people that do parlays to wager less to make more .
parlay to hit big on a calendar day ..
there are many ways at going about it ..
if you are EXCLUSIVly DO SINGLE WAGERS ONLY AND FAIL I WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO BELIEVE THAT IN A MILLION TRILLION YEARS ..

to really cut to the chase ? it is a joke to say anyone on the earth would fail doing single wagers day after day .
i normally go 7 - 3 every day . is normal . the result is failure with the 70% on parlays , but if done on single wagers then it is profit .
what i say is fact .
single wagers = no big deal , a person can do okay , no problem .
if a person parlays what he likes up then he will see more losing days than winning days .
what does this mean ? simply do single wagers means you dont put yourself in the position to have the monster day . you just do okay , nothing big . there is a big difference in lettign the monster day go . YOU SEE IT AFTER YOU SEE THE FINAL SCORES . YOU COULD HAVE MADE 10 GRAND IF YOU PARLAYED WHAT YOU LIKED UP FOR THE DAY ..

doing single wagers at -110 is in fact alot simpler and easier than trying to hit up big on one calendar day . single wagers is in fact the way to be at -110 and most days a person would basically break even fo the day .

A perfect example. You claim you hit 70% every day, but the parlays fail, so why do the parlays? Read Ganchrows thread, you should own the world by now.

[englishmike]

Nascar Al. I used to watch about 200 hours of race film a season in my professional days. It was my edge over the linesmakers.

How did you factor in random crashes and tire blow-outs?

[Nicky Santoro]

hearty, you might be dodif


hearty = dodif..

hearty, dodif is also a nascar expert.. so he says..


hearty, i thought you bet sports.. because i wanted to make you an offer you cant refuse..


I will give you 6-1 odds, your 500 for 3,000 that you cant come up ahead on 500 games.. we go by OLY closing lines so no discrepancy on lines.

NO WAY.. you come up ahead.. NO WAY.. i dont care how sharp you are.. NO WAY..

this challenge is for anyone here.


donny juan?? chippy??? anyone want my offer.

YOU WILL LOSE.

[durito]

In my experience, the biggest degenerates and the people who lie the most to themseves are the people who claim they make money because they have found an 'edge.' What is an edge? Did USC have an edge over Stanford? If your edge is with a pitcher and he pitches like a dog, wheres his edge? If Manny Ramirez is batting .400 and he goes 0-5 what does that mean? Someone got out of bed yesterday morning and died in a car crash. The reason it wasn't me or you is because it was a random event, it could have been anyone. Gambling on sport is random, one team will win and one team will lose, if it was so easy to predict why would they play in the first place? If you're lucky you pick correctly. Luck has no edge. It's addictive and it's fun. if you can win, good, if you can control it, even better.

guess i better find something else to do with my life then

[englishmike]

And i'll double the offer if the money goes in escrow.

[Tsoprano]

Im not saying I will always be up lifetime, but since I started a few years ago im up a ton.

[englishmike]

guess i better find something else to do with my life then

I'm not suggesting you do anything else with your life, I can only speak for what I think, it does'nt make me right, just my opinion. I generally find that the people who claim they know an edge in a random event are the same people who beileve Jews were told to stay away from the twin towers on 9/11 and ufo's exist but the information is surpressed by the government.

[Nicky Santoro]

British Mike, We'll Finally Find Out Who Here Is For Real When They Say They Make Money No Problem..

Lets See Who Here Takes Up This Offer. donny juan, chippy, hearty?? anyone??

Over/under Of People Accepting My Offer Of 6-1 Over 500 Bets?



0.5 Un -185
0.5 Ov +165..


You Can Bet Nfl, Ncaa, Totals, Sides, Whatever You Want. I Will Put Up The Money Up Front..

[durito]

How did you factor in random crashes and tire blow-outs?

You don't.

Quote:
Originally Posted by so-classy#23 View Post
calculations alone can't account for a critical infield error, a mysterious blown whistle, or whatever other in-game factors that have no numbers attached to them can provide. Nevertheless theres no denying the sexiness of trying to live up a dream of being a sports fan and picking winners daily


I think the above quote nicely exemplifies the primary difference in philosophy between recreational and (quantitative) advantage bettors.

A sporting event is by its very nature chaotic, associated with an inherent level of essentially irreducible entropy. The goal of the advantage bettor isn't so much to delve in to the entropic, but rather to come up with broadly scoped probability measures that seek to estimate the likelihood of a given outcome, conditioned on the available data.

A good analogy might be a fair coin-flip where a player is able to bet heads at +110 for an EV of +5%. Now let's say a player makes a +110 bet on heads, the coin is flipped and it comes up tails.

An advantage player might reason, "OK I knew I had only a 50% probability of winning going into this bet, I know the coin-flip was fair, offer the bet to me again and I'll make the bet again."

A recreational player however, perhaps overly concerned with the excitement of the bet itself, might watch the flip in super slo-mo. He sees the coin start off tails side up, make 7.5 rotations as it ascends, and on the way down just as it looks almost certain to land heads, a door down the hall is slammed shut, creating a tiny, almost imperceptible wind that knocks a small butterfly into the tails side of the coin, causing, at almost the last moment to land heads side down.

The recreational bettor slams his fist in disgust and says, "This is unreal! I was about to win that bet. How could I have possibly known that that door was going to slam at exactly the moment that the butterfly was flying by. There are just way too many factors at play! The outcome of a coin-flip can't be predicted and there's no way anyone can make money doing this!"

To an extent the recreational is quite right. The precise outcome of a fair coin-flip can't be predicted with certainty. There's no reasonable way in which that slammed door or that butterfly could have be foreseen, or just as importantly, what their impact on the final result would have been even could they have been foreseen.

This is a big reason why, all else being equal, "critical infield errors" or "mysterious blown whistles" don't bother me personally. I'm not trying to predict such essentially "chaotic" subevents and fully realize that they largely can't be predicted past a certain, very generic point. I don't watch games in super slo-mo, because I don't really care for the purposes of a single bet whether I ultimately won or lost due to getting lucky or unlucky.

For an advantage bettor wagering shouldn't be about "picking winners" per se but rather about associating probabilities with various outcomes. Equipped with these initial "prior" probability estimates, advantage bettors should then utilize market evidence (generally in the form of current broad-based market prices) to infer "posterior" probabilities by a process known as "Bayesian inference". These posterior probabilities, which when taken in conjunction with available prices (that, depending upon your bookie, may differ from the broad-based market price), to determine edge and then ultimately bet size.

That's it. That's the entire (quantitative) advantage betting game in a nutshell. Sure, sometimes the "model price" might itself only be a function of the "market price" (such that the posterior and prior probabilities are equivalent), such as in the case of say, betting Bowl underdog of 7+ points prior to New Year's (a strategy which, by the way, I'm by no means way endorsing), but the above is really the essence of advantage betting.

When I bet the Pittsburgh run line last night at +105 and +102 I was no more "predicting" the outcome of the game in any meaningful sense than the earlier hypothetical advantage player betting on heads at +110 was "predicting" the outcome the fair coin-flip.

Currently I believe Pit+1.5 to be fairly valued at about 50.52% (a line of roughly -102.1), implying edges of about 3.56% and 2.04% on my bets at +105 and +102, respectively. As game time approaches, both those estimates (as well as available prices) are likely to change and in response my programs will likely be placing additional bets -- maybe some on the Tampa RL, or on either of the alternate run lines, or or either of the money lines, or on the game or team totals -- but all the while paying close attention not only to my expected value but also to my underlying risk.

I'm going out tonight around 6PM, a good hour before the PIT/TB game starts, I'm sure I'll have no idea about my net exposure to any aspect of the game, and won't know, even if I happen to see the final score, whether I've made or lost money on the event.

Advantage sports betting is all about placing +EV bets while keeping tight control over the reins of risk (implying that -EV are occasionally in order); that the bets' outcomes happen to be based on sporting events is, at least for me, little more than an afterthought. Yeah, so a bottom of the 9th inning grand slam with no outs happened to cost me a visitor +1.5 bet ... but even if I actually knew that, my response could be only, "So what? Shit just sometimes happens." But you know what ... sometimes it happens the other way, too.

So concern yourself with trying to find coin-flips at +110 and just ignore the butterflies and slamming doors. You shouldn't in general be trying to "predict winners", you should be trying to estimate probabilities.

[durito]

I'm not suggesting you do anything else with your life, I can only speak for what I think, it does'nt make me right, just my opinion. I generally find that the people who claim they know an edge in a random event are the same people who beileve Jews were told to stay away from the twin towers on 9/11 and ufo's exist but the information is surpressed by the government.

Sporting events are not random. Otherwise the money lines would be -110/-110 on every game.

[englishmike]

To quote Ganchrow: 'broadly scoped probability.'

Broadly scoped probability means guessing a random event. We're all guessing random events. Some lose more than others guessing those random events and I've no doubt 0.0000001% win. My comments are aimed at the 99.999999%

[englishmike]

Sporting events are not random. Otherwise the money lines would be -110/-110 on every game.

What was the USC/Stanford money line?

[chipski]

A perfect example. You claim you hit 70% every day, but the parlays fail, so why do the parlays? Read Ganchrows thread, you should own the world by now.

i have posted big muli team parlay winners on this site .
is not a big deal .

you have to be in it to win it . < READ THAT A MILLION TIMES

you dont truly know OR BELIEVE your profit potential for that PARTICULAR DAY BECAUSE YOU WOULD BE AFRAID TO WAGER DOING PARLAYS TO MAKE ALOT . WHY WOULD YOU ?

why would i type on here saying i hit this and that .
my posts are always simply from life to type on here . because you go 70% for the day and all your selections were parlayed and ended up losing fri or mon does not mean there are not days you go 10 - 0 and get 40 parlays right for the day with an average of $200 profit for each parlay ($200 to $300 risked for the day )

one day has nothing to do with the next day .
if you think it does you will be
handicapped and scared to make moves .

why would i push the multi team parlay concept and brag personally ?
that would not help anyone right .
past will always be the past . each day is brand new ,
what happened yesterday does not mean you wont make a bundle when you go at em again .

[Al Masters]

Nicky, I may take you up on that offer if you include
action from the Indonesian mixed badminton league
and the Malaysian midget wrestling league.

[englishmike]

Durito: i've gotta go out, as much as I'd like to continue this I can't. I respect your opinion and I respect your point of view, I just don't agree....which doesn't make me right. However, I want to ask you this: Concentrating on the USA, of the bilions and billions wagered per-year, how many people (%) of gamblers would you say win. I know there is no way of checking this number I just want your best guess. I'm interested because I want to know why you think gambling companies and corporations can be beaten when, time alone says they can't.

[englishmike]

i have posted big muli team parlay winners on this site .
is not a big deal .

you have to be in it to win it . < READ THAT A MILLION TIMES

you dont truly know OR BELIEVE your profit potential for that PARTICULAR DAY BECAUSE YOU WOULD BE AFRAID TO WAGER DOING PARLAYS TO MAKE ALOT . WHY WOULD YOU ?

why would i type on here saying i hit this and that .
my posts are always simply from life to type on here . because you go 70% for the day and all your selections were parlayed and ended up losing fri or mon does not mean there are not days you go 10 - 0 and get 40 parlays right for the day with an average of $200 profit for each parlay ($200 to $300 risked for the day )

one day has nothing to do with the next day .
if you think it does you will be
handicapped and scared to make moves .

why would i push the multi team parlay concept and brag personally ?
that would not help anyone right .
past will always be the past . each day is brand new ,
what happened yesterday does not mean you wont make a bundle when you go at em again .

Im not saying you're lying about anything, I don't disbeileve you. My question is this: Why are bookmakers there? Why do they increase profit year-on-year? Someone is losing, they must be, I just never come across people willing to admit it except for me.

[durito]

What was the USC/Stanford money line?

Cris closed at 10/06 06:28 PM +4000 -8000

Which corresponds to an implied win percentage of 97.6% for USC and 2.4% for Stanford. A nice hit surely for a few people.


What exactly is your contention here? That since Stanford won, they should have been favored?

[Heartman2]

Nicky, I'm losing this year in Nascar. My 1st losing season in 6 years. That's the main reason I'm not posting picks right now. I'm on about a 7 week losing streak.

It's a bad year to bet Nascar, in my opinion, because of the car change this year. I knew it would be a tough. My edge over the linesmakers, 200 hours film study and 200 pages of handwritten notes every 9 months doesn't work this year. It's an unpredictable, momentem type of season.

Also the Frist law made it more difficult for my wagering style(30 to 50 driver matchups a week). I lost 3 important Nascar books in VIP, PINNACLE and WWTS and I lost NETELLER.

I think I will probably win a little next year, maybe, but 2 to 3 years from now, when information and film on this new car add up, I will probably win enough to go pro again. That's my plan!!!

Calling me DoDif is a complete insult to me. In my opinion, Dodif is a cheating, lying, scumbag PILE OF SH!T!!!

Please, don't ever call me Dodif again!!!

I will repeat, If you don't believe me do a search of heartman at majorwager and then come back and talk to me.

THERE IS AN ADVANTAGE TO POSTING FREE PICKS ON A FORUM, I CAN TALK SH!T AND BACK IT UP!!! Go do a search boys!!!

[Nicky Santoro]

good one, al..


british mike, it's true though what he is saying.. it's not all random.. if you keep playing the edges and get your value, you will make money over the long haul.. but you really have to shop your brains out with multiple books, and get great lines.. even if you lay -230, you can stil make money.. as long as it has value..


but i know all this and i've been doing this all my life with great lines, so how the fck am i down over the last 2 yrs?

because gambling has its way of getting you at the end.. it's just the way it is. wtf would happen to those people that lay -110 who dont know value.. like the 80% of the posters here in the forum at sbr that bet the cubs today at -250..

gambling is very tough.. you wanna make money, OPEN A FCKIN BOOK and you will clean up

instead of grinding it out everyday to make a profit, go open a book and get +300 to +600 on every game, instead of -105 or -110 and you will have more money than god.

[englishmike]

Cris closed at 10/06 06:28 PM +4000 -8000

Which corresponds to an implied win percentage of 97.6% for USC and 2.4% for Stanford. A nice hit surely for a few people.


What exactly is your contention here? That since Stanford won, they should have been favored?

No. my contention is, regardless of any odds it was random and it will always be random which means if you're LUCKY you'll win and if you can randomly go on a good run you'll show a profit but over time you'll lose.
I've gotta go out.