To All Those Who Said It's Impossible to hit 60%...

[MrXYZ]

To put it into perspective, if Joe Capper was flat betting 1 unit on each play, and taking odds of -110, the juice means he'd have to hit 53% to begin making a profit. Most won't even make that number.

SJ, I also like how you limit your risk to 1-3 units on your plays, have implemented that in my money management & it's made a big difference, as I was betting way too big for my bankroll

[MB]

Congrats. That's major

[Git Lo]

To put it into perspective, if Joe Capper was flat betting 1 unit on each play, and taking odds of -110, the juice means he'd have to hit 53% to begin making a profit. Most won't even make that number.

SJ, I also like how you limit your risk to 1-3 units on your plays, have implemented that in my money management & it's made a big difference, as I was betting way too big for my bankroll

thats the key part money management. Imagine if you followed him throughout the entire season with any amount of money you would be up 30 units.

[Ace_of_Spades]

SJ is a top notch capper.

[Ralphie Halves]

I follow him on twitter. A few observations....

1) As straight up as it gets.

2) If he took out his bets on halves, I think he'd be up more. I was only following him the last third of the season or so, but just an observation. Could be wrong there.

3) He DOES move lines. Frustrating sometimes. I still make the play, and I can think of only one or two times I lost and he pushed/won, so who gives a fukk. These make-believe math people are unbelievable.

4) sweetjones, you're playing it just right. People love success but can't stand successful people. That coupled with the fact that there are sooooo many complete retards on SBR, there's no reason to care what the general populous here thinks of your accomplishments. How many good cappers have we lost because they were dumb enough to care what Johnny 16-year-old squawk-fuk from Philly has to say about their plays? I'm just happy I jumped on board when I did.

5) Along the lines of 4), no need to go tout. For the amount you could probably make on 5 wins, you would have to go through all the nonsense of starting a business, maintaining it, and worse than anything, be forced to deal with clients. Most people don't understand how time is worth so much more than money. Greed can sink you on shit like that. It has to many cappers already.

Congrats dude.

[vinh diesel]

CanuckG, I was very skeptical early in the year of the books moving the lines based on my plays but at this point I think it's a lot more crazy to say they are not watching my plays due to the countless times that lines move the second I post them. Not all of the sites move but Bookmaker (where I play) almost always moves. Dexter and a bunch of other posters were calling me crazy in the middle of the year when I started noticing this. Dexter and all of these other posters are now 100% convinced that my plays are moving the line. I went out of my way one night and put in a play at 4AM when the lines are rarely moving, the game was Heat @ NY. The line moved within 5 minutes of me posting a play on the Knicks. There was a total the other day, Heat/Raptors. The total opened up at 200.5, was out for 4.5 hours and didn't move an inch. I put a play out on the UNDER and it moved to 197 within 15 minutes. I would estimate that in the last 100 plays, that maybe two lines have moved in my favor. Never has a play I put 3-5 UNITS moved in my favor this year.

They may not be following the plays on SBR but they see the money coming in on my plays. I bet the games pretty big myself (a dime a unit) and I have friends who follow consistently putting dimes as well. Couple all those on SBR that are following and it's not so farfetched that these lines are moving when I put out plays. By moving it's usually a 0.5 point, not like a full point or anything.

What about you posting a fake play to have the line move one way and bet the other side?

[SquareDinner]

What about you posting a fake play to have the line move one way and bet the other side?

Hey, that was my idea. Get a big followers, post bogus bets to move lines to favor you on the other side. In reality, you might lose your bet but you make many here a believer if you make them a winner.

[csmkr18]

Great job SJ!

[gshock1]

Keep up the great work SJ. You have proven yourself over the long haul and are pure class. I wish you continued success!

[hels]

My followers would never allow me to fabricate my record, they track me each and every day. Every single one of my plays this year can be found on my twitter account with no clutter at all as well.

this is correct. I have pmed him questioning his stats and he has linked me appropriately. Everyone knows I posted lakerboys true numbers and he went apeshit on me and had his thread deleted because of it. SJ is the real deal folks and I have followed his plays all season.

[BeatTheJerk]

Where are these gold mine plays being bestowed from sweetyjones ?

[Landscaper]

Very nice

[rapidfire5]

good work

[Cap dat 4ss]

Congrats SJ. Funny how when someone is successful here everyone else tries to tear him down to their level. Keep winning brother

[opie1988]

More than anything....Congrats to having the self-confidence to keep making your plays day after day. Even when you hit the cold stretches, as everyone inevitably does....you stayed the course. Sweetjones would go as far as asking those defending him to the naysayers to "simply ignore their attacks".

Thats a fantastic record you have compiled, a rare feat in any gambling endeavor. But I also hope the mental toughness and resiliency you showed doesn't get overlooked. Its every bit as impressive.

[widebody2]

Anyone saying 60% isn't a big deal has no clue...

60% over 500 plays has nothing to do with luck. There is no reason why he can't hit 60% for 1000 plays or more.

SJ55 is the best documented capper I've ever seen....I would have made a thread about the achievement had it been me. Its a big deal. Congratulations brother

SJ you were a little early with this post. You need two more consecutive wins to be at 60% officially.

[BeatTheJerk]

Anyone saying 60% isn't a big deal has no clue...

60% over 500 plays has nothing to do with luck. There is no reason why he can't hit 60% for 1000 plays or more.

SJ55 is the best documented capper I've ever seen....I would have made a thread about the achievement had it been me. Its a big deal. Congratulations brother

SJ you were a little early with this post. You need two more consecutive wins to be at 60% officially.

...............................

[sweetjones55]

What about you posting a fake play to have the line move one way and bet the other side?

Lol I would mess up too many people doing this as they would put in the play. I actually did do the reverse one time this year on a game but didn't post it to do it. My buddy bets 15k+ so to him a 0.5-1 point is worth $1,000. So I bet $1000 on my account on a total (costing him only $100 in the juice) and the total moved a point and what was cool is people saw the move and steamed it and moved it 1.5 points.

[noties]

SJ

when do start your record and stop , meaning do you start with the

nba and stop after another sport ends

keep up the work and help sbr posters build a bankroll

[obamaismyuncle]

sj, you're betting games at lines your sheep cannot get. If people don't think beating the line by a half a point to a couple points means something, they're an idiot, that shit comes into play more than one would think.

[sweetjones55]

Anyone saying 60% isn't a big deal has no clue...

60% over 500 plays has nothing to do with luck. There is no reason why he can't hit 60% for 1000 plays or more.

SJ55 is the best documented capper I've ever seen....I would have made a thread about the achievement had it been me. Its a big deal. Congratulations brother

SJ you were a little early with this post. You need two more consecutive wins to be at 60% officially.

I appreciate that.

[sweetjones55]

More than anything....Congrats to having the self-confidence to keep making your plays day after day. Even when you hit the cold stretches, as everyone inevitably does....you stayed the course. Sweetjones would go as far as asking those defending him to the naysayers to "simply ignore their attacks".

Thats a fantastic record you have compiled, a rare feat in any gambling endeavor. But I also hope the mental toughness and resiliency you showed doesn't get overlooked. Its every bit as impressive.

Ya I don't think I hit 60% because of my knowledge of the NBA. I think a lot of people know just as much as me. It's staying mentally strong and believing in yourself that you have an edge through the rough patches. It's easy to think, "This shit is rigged. You can't win in sports gambling. It's all luck".

Also, you have to keep your mind open to others opinions which is something I did a lot more this year than last. I have a small group of people that I always discuss my plays with and ask them their opinion.

[sweetjones55]

Great job SJ!

Keep up the great work SJ. You have proven yourself over the long haul and are pure class. I wish you continued success!

Congrats SJ. Funny how when someone is successful here everyone else tries to tear him down to their level. Keep winning brother

[nyjets15]

I follow him on twitter. A few observations.... 1) As straight up as it gets. 2) If he took out his bets on halves, I think he'd be up more. I was only following him the last third of the season or so, but just an observation. Could be wrong there. 3) He DOES move lines. Frustrating sometimes. I still make the play, and I can think of only one or two times I lost and he pushed/won, so who gives a fukk. These make-believe math people are unbelievable. 4) sweetjones, you're playing it just right. People love success but can't stand successful people. That coupled with the fact that there are sooooo many complete retards on SBR, there's no reason to care what the general populous here thinks of your accomplishments. How many good cappers have we lost because they were dumb enough to care what Johnny 16-year-old squawk-fuk from Philly has to say about their plays? I'm just happy I jumped on board when I did. 5) Along the lines of 4), no need to go tout. For the amount you could probably make on 5 wins, you would have to go through all the nonsense of starting a business, maintaining it, and worse than anything, be forced to deal with clients. Most people don't understand how time is worth so much more than money. Greed can sink you on shit like that. It has to many cappers already. Congrats dude.

YOU should give a ****......this is waaayy more important than you're making it out to be.....don't have the numbers offhand, but just a few of these losses will reduce your profit

[Iceman]

Obviously your a winning NBA handicapper and you deserve all the credit in the world for that, great job!!!

But one issue I have is with the whole saying you are winning at a 60% rate, then you are also buying points. That doesn't count or even mean the same thing when you are paying -140 juice or so.

Let's say 10 games were effected by getting these two extra points out of your 500 plays and instead those games were graded off of the actual "real line", your win percentage would then drop from 60% to 57.8%. Drop another ten winnners off the tally and we are down to now 55.8%, still good but it's nowhere near 60%. I have no idea how many times this was done but you mentioned that it has happened already twice in the last few days and I know with the math betting the NBA, games fallen within the number within two points a lot of times.

I guarantee you that in the long run you would actually be up more units if you didn't pay the extra juice buying those two points and just bititng the bullet. I can promise you the books are charging you more for those points you are buying. It may not seen like but when you are paying $1,070 or so for a loss instead of $1,400 it will add up quick. The books know the math, that is why they offer this to you. Sure your win percentage would obvioulsy drop down but the more important number, your "ROI" (return on your investement) would be higher.

Not questioning if you win so don't take it as that. I know a few people including myself who do their own work and also beat the NBA, it's doable. It's not easy but like anything in life if you work hard and smart, you can do well and you obviously do both. In fact I am kicking myself that I never discovered you or any of this until now. I can prmoise you that you are on my short list of people to read every day next year in the NBA.

As far as talking about winning at a 60% win rate at -110 in the NBA, that is never happening. No one does that against straight up widely availible numbers. Just google Haralabos Voulgaris and NBA betting and you will see a guy who took NBA betting to the extreme, he hired programmers and some of the smartest people in the world to help him beat the NBA and even he won less than that. His story is almost unreal. I have read where he claims to make a 7%-8% ROI, which is around 56% against W/A lines and this was years ago in much easier NBA betting markets.

I personally have every single bet that I have made for over five years (all profitable years) and the highest 500 bet stretch/sequence I have ever put up is around 56.5% and that was by betting CBB openers on totals, in a market the linesmakers was completely out of touch with years ago. In fact I think I have had only a handful of 55% winning stretchs ever over 500 bets but my point is who cares? You can make a lot of money hitting 53-54% at reduced juice doing this. In fact the thing I am most proud of is I have never been behind over any 2,000 bet sequence in my life and this is coming from a very happy and proud 53.5% handicapper over the past five years and after nearly 30,000 total bets.

Keep up the great work!!

[vinny808]

Sweetjones, what are you going to do with your large earnings this season?

[sweetjones55]

Obviously your a winning NBA handicapper and you deserve all the credit in the world for that, great job!!!

But one issue I have is with the whole saying you are winning at a 60% rate, then you are also buying points. That doesn't count or even mean the same thing when you are paying -140 juice or so.

I guarantee you that in the long run you would actually be up more units if you didn't pay the extra juice buying those two points and just bititng the bullet. I can promise you the books are charging you more for those points you are buying. It may not seen like but when you are paying $1,070 or so for a loss instead of $1,400 it will add up quick. The books know the math, that is why they offer this to you. Sure your win percentage would obvioulsy drop down but the more important number, your "ROI" (return on your investement) would be higher.

As far as talking about winning at a 60% win rate at -110 in the NBA, that is never happening.

Lol can everyone please stop with this buying of points talk. I have bought 1.5 points on games three times the entire year, I just so happened to do it three times in the last week. And everyone that is telling me not to do it should check the results of two of the games that I did so.

OKC was -5 Game 1, I bought it down to -3.5. They won by 4
Port was -5 game 3, I bought it down to -3.5. They won by 5.

Do you realize how big a swing that is? I had 3.5 UNITS risking 5 on OKC. Had I not done that and just taken -5, that's a -7.35 UNIT swing. With Portland that's a -2.1 UNIT swing. That's almost a 10 UNIT swing in my favor because I bought the points. I don't believe in paying -140, that's not a good idea long term. But in the playoffs when you're talking of a -5 line, I think it's worth it because teams foul down by 3-4 all the time. Down 4-5 with 5 seconds left they will not a lot of times.

All of this talk about not being able to hit 60% at -110 is crap. I hit 63% for the entire year of 2010, 206-123-4 (63%). If I could do that at say an average of -113 then I can definitely hit 60% at -110.

[EDDIE MONEY LINE]

I don't believe in paying -140, that's not a good idea long term. But in the playoffs when you're talking of a -5 line, I think it's worth it because teams foul down by 3-4 all the time. Down 5-6 they will not a lot of times.

pick ur spots

[fishtot]

is this the line to suck SJ Dick? man, I can't wait until its my turn, woo hoo

[sweetjones55]

Now I know everyone is going to yell blasphemy about my 2010 record but I can go ahead and prove it. On January 1 2010, my NBA record for that season 31-33-2. This can be found on my TSG thread. I finished the season 182-120-6. So my record from January 1 til the end of that season was 151-87-4. From the beginning of this season to December 31 this year, my record was 55-36. So add up 151-87-4 and 55-36 and you get, 206-123-4 (63%)

[obamaismyuncle]

Now I know everyone is going to yell blasphemy about my 2010 record but I can go ahead and prove it. On January 1 2010, my NBA record for that season 31-33-2. I finished the season 182-120-6. So my record from January 1 til the end of that season was 151-87-4. From the beginning of this season to December 31 this year, my record was 55-36. So add up 151-87-4 and 55-36 and you get, 206-123-4 (63%)

why do you care so much what others think? if you were really hitting 60% and betting a dime a game wouldn't the cash winnings be enough recognition? scary how much an online rep means to some.

[sweetjones55]

why do you care so much what others think? if you were really hitting 60% and betting a dime a game wouldn't the cash winnings be enough recognition? scary how much an online rep means to some.

Why do you care if I care? I respect a lot of posters on this site and their opinions and don't want my records questioned.

[mdemps9190]

congrats SJ. Don't follow your plays but nice to see someone winning big. Don't respond to the haters, thats all they want. Keep on keepin on bro.

[widebody2]

As far as talking about winning at a 60% win rate at -110 in the NBA, that is never happening. No one does that against straight up widely availible numbers. Just google Haralabos Voulgaris and NBA betting and you will see a guy who took NBA betting to the extreme, he hired programmers and some of the smartest people in the world to help him beat the NBA and even he won less than that. His story is almost unreal. I have read where he claims to make a 7%-8% ROI, which is around 56% against W/A lines and this was years ago in much easier NBA betting markets.

I am a firm believer in math based sports. Have a BS in Mathematics and have always, since I was a child, been in the top percentiles in math. I'll be the first to say that a very intelligent human mind with a lot of work behind it, will always be able to outperform a program or math based system in sports betting. Math systems can give you a decent advantage long term over many bets but if you are shooting for the absolute highest winning percentages there are just too many variable to account for that a human brain can adjust too, while a system will be to rigid and won't be able to adjust to. I don't care how fancy the programming behind the system is, each and every game has limitless different variables to account for, with different weights on each variable depending on all the circumstances surrounding the game.

[erkanua]

I don't care whether SJ is above %60 win percentage or not. I really like to read his analyses and agree with many of his bets, that's the only thing I would regard. Thank you!