To All Those Who Said It's Impossible to hit 60%...

[ronjon619]

Why do you care if I care? I respect a lot of posters on this site and their opinions and don't want my records questioned.

what book do you play at?

[Ralphie1412]

"please accept me!!!!!"

[bolekblues]

I don't know whether it was said previously because i don't have time to go through every post in this thread, so if i repeat someone than please ignore this post.

I have great repsect for you SJ and think you are a great capper. don't always agree with your analysis because sometimes it feels like it is just 'too simple' if u know what i mean. but that's not the point since results should speak for themselves and they should.

I don't mean to criticize you and but you have not hit 60%, and to be honest i don't think this is some sign of greatness. By saying 'it is impossible to hit 60% over long term' one (and people saying this) means that you are not able to do this on the most efficient markets and with wiledely available lines.

Now i think that those conditions require playing only nba sides and totals (well ok, if you want you can add halves, team totals etc) and no points buying. because imagine these examples: what is the point of saying 'i hit 65% when i play nba moneylines' or 'i hit 65% on player props at some exotic books'? i guess a lot of skilled players can do this.

To not get me wrong... if you want to show your true record against this hypothesis then you should subtract all the games where you bought poits from the official record and then see what it is. now you have legitimate win % that you can for ex test using binomial distr. if you all know what i am talking about. otherwise, if you look at the games you bought points, you have a bunch of games where you buying points obv increases the juice (and i am sure everyone can figure what % of plays you have to hit to break even with, say -140 lines) and saved you quite a few times - recent example with OKC, i remember a reg season game LAL -3,5 ag PHO (or sth similar, i know because i happened to play LAL -4,5 i guess and lost) and so on. So either you extract those games and show 'true' win% ag. the hypothesis or you say 'i hit 60% on different lines and am up this many units'.

Again, this is not criticizing SJ, but the statement is evidently incorrent. i am not sure you can hit 60% within conditions that would be required, but who cares? guy is hitting probably 57-58% on games where he did not buy points and in an efficient market (which is NBA sides and totals) and is a long term winner. 60% shit in itself does not mean anything if you are able to hit 55% or more over some decent number of plays and everybody who knows this game knows what i am talking about. give the guy credit for what he's doing because he's giving out winners for free, but let the debate of 60% myth end because this has no sense.

To end this, i my own have an nba model which hits around 54% long term playing 700-800 a season on sided (which is thought to be the toughest nba market to beat). now, this is a lot of plays and record might not be extremely impressive, but if you narrow down the plays to 150 it hits over 56%. if you narrow it down futher to the strongest plays (that differ from market line the most) you can get this results: 56-37 in 2009-10 season (60,2%) and 53-29 (64,6%) this season. So, can you say it hits over 60%? i dont know and i dont care to honest with you. i do care it to hit consistently but if this is 59% then fine with me. i suppose this will make profit going forward but don't bother about a magical 60% threshold. another thing is i will also play some weaker plays, because i would be missing on some opportunities. if i were obsessed with the %, i would play the strongest ones only, which are this 20-9 (69%) and 14-4 (78%) for respective seasons. so i could play only those and say - oh look i hit 70% long term, but i would play only 20-30 games a season, which is not nearly enough. actually i might give up ome of the weakest plays since they cost me some money in the 2nd part of the season (that's when i started playing the system) but that's not thread for it.

sj keep doing what you do and others let him do the work and not bother about some 60% shit

[sweetjones55]

I don't know whether it was said previously because i don't have time to go through every post in this thread, so if i repeat someone than please ignore this post.

I don't mean to criticize you and but you have not hit 60%, and to be honest i don't think this is some sign of greatness. By saying 'it is impossible to hit 60% over long term' one (and people saying this) means that you are not able to do this on the most efficient markets and with wiledely available lines.

Please explain to me how I haven't hit 60%. My record in the year 2010 was 206-123-4 (63%). My average line was probably around -113. Say 3% of my games were affected by the point buying, then I still hit 60%.

[El Sol]

Well, I'm am certainly a skeptic and will be the first to say that 60% long term is unrealistic. I only say this because I've been doing this for longer than 90% of this forum has been alive and have seen and heard it all in regards to wagering. However, your record is indeed documented.

Plays where you bought points should not be included for official record keeping reasons, only ATS (not saying that buying points is bad) and units won should be based on one unit flat bets (again not against varying bet size, but for official records, its the only fair way to do it). But you said that you only did it three times, so its negligible.

I am humbly impressed. Now can you you do this across all sports?

For the noobs

---One of the reasons why its hard to hit 60% long term is that the angles you use to exploit the advantage in the line will eventually be leaked by the handicapper, picked up on by the books (yes doubters, individuals can move lines based on their knowledge alone) or the general public simply catches up. You see this all the time in horse racing, the easiest example to illustrate was the introduction of Beyer numbers which were hugely profitable before the Racing Form started publishing them. Therfore, post, give anaylise, but keep your angles private...

[bolekblues]

this reg season you hit 60% or 59%, i don't remember. i am not talking years but seasons - this is the right route to go. and i am not talking about quartes, half lines and team totals. there's a reason why limits are lower on those plays. if you substract all of the games that you bought points on then you get 1-2% pts down. but i do not care, have you read my entire post or just read what you wanted to read and get to this immediately? why are you so obsessed about it? i said you are a great capper and probably the best with documented plays i have seen. but this 60% thing is 1. nonsense 2. not true if you want to be accurate.

[bolekblues]

and if you want for me to agree that it is possible to hit 60% long term (because this is the theme and title of the thread, is it not?) i can agree with you yes it can. as i said i can hit over 60% on my model's strong plays (and those are only nba sides and closing lines, not openers not overnite lines and not lines in the middle of the day), i can hit over 60% on props (which are 50-50 bets as well, right?), and so on.

[CanuckG]

no spreadsheet

[sweetjones55]

I am humbly impressed. Now can you you do this across all sports?


---One of the reasons why its hard to hit 60% long term is that the angles you use to exploit the advantage in the line will eventually be leaked by the handicapper, picked up on by the books (yes doubters, individuals can move lines based on their knowledge alone) or the general public simply catches up. You see this all the time in horse racing, the easiest example to illustrate was the introduction of Beyer numbers which were hugely profitable before the Racing Form started publishing them. Therfore, post, give anaylise, but keep your angles private...

I absolutely can not hit 60% in all sports. I don't even handicap other sports really. I make plays on UMiami Football and Basketball because I feel I know these two teams better than any linesmaker. It's my alma mater and I follow them religiously and attend almost every game. I also make some rare plays on NFL, had great success with them.

[RoagBettor]

Well, I'm am certainly a skeptic and will be the first to say that 60% long term is unrealistic. I only say this because I've been doing this for longer than 90% of this forum has been alive and have seen and heard it all in regards to wagering. However, your record is indeed documented.

Plays where you bought points should not be included for official record keeping reasons, only ATS (not saying that buying points is bad) and units won should be based on one unit flat bets (again not against varying bet size, but for official records, its the only fair way to do it). But you said that you only did it three times, so its negligible.

I am humbly impressed. Now can you you do this across all sports?

For the noobs

---One of the reasons why its hard to hit 60% long term is that the angles you use to exploit the advantage in the line will eventually be leaked by the handicapper, picked up on by the books (yes doubters, individuals can move lines based on their knowledge alone) or the general public simply catches up. You see this all the time in horse racing, the easiest example to illustrate was the introduction of Beyer numbers which were hugely profitable before the Racing Form started publishing them. Therfore, post, give anaylise, but keep your angles private...

You my friend are one of the few on SBR who I'd love to spend a week or so with in Vegas. And I'm talking in a business way!

[BeatTheJerk]

I don't know whether it was said previously because i don't have time to go through every post in this thread, so if i repeat someone than please ignore this post.

I have great repsect for you SJ and think you are a great capper. don't always agree with your analysis because sometimes it feels like it is just 'too simple' if u know what i mean. but that's not the point since results should speak for themselves and they should.

I don't mean to criticize you and but you have not hit 60%, and to be honest i don't think this is some sign of greatness. By saying 'it is impossible to hit 60% over long term' one (and people saying this) means that you are not able to do this on the most efficient markets and with wiledely available lines.

Now i think that those conditions require playing only nba sides and totals (well ok, if you want you can add halves, team totals etc) and no points buying. because imagine these examples: what is the point of saying 'i hit 65% when i play nba moneylines' or 'i hit 65% on player props at some exotic books'? i guess a lot of skilled players can do this.

To not get me wrong... if you want to show your true record against this hypothesis then you should subtract all the games where you bought poits from the official record and then see what it is. now you have legitimate win % that you can for ex test using binomial distr. if you all know what i am talking about. otherwise, if you look at the games you bought points, you have a bunch of games where you buying points obv increases the juice (and i am sure everyone can figure what % of plays you have to hit to break even with, say -140 lines) and saved you quite a few times - recent example with OKC, i remember a reg season game LAL -3,5 ag PHO (or sth similar, i know because i happened to play LAL -4,5 i guess and lost) and so on. So either you extract those games and show 'true' win% ag. the hypothesis or you say 'i hit 60% on different lines and am up this many units'.

Again, this is not criticizing SJ, but the statement is evidently incorrent. i am not sure you can hit 60% within conditions that would be required, but who cares? guy is hitting probably 57-58% on games where he did not buy points and in an efficient market (which is NBA sides and totals) and is a long term winner. 60% shit in itself does not mean anything if you are able to hit 55% or more over some decent number of plays and everybody who knows this game knows what i am talking about. give the guy credit for what he's doing because he's giving out winners for free, but let the debate of 60% myth end because this has no sense.

To end this, i my own have an nba model which hits around 54% long term playing 700-800 a season on sided (which is thought to be the toughest nba market to beat). now, this is a lot of plays and record might not be extremely impressive, but if you narrow down the plays to 150 it hits over 56%. if you narrow it down futher to the strongest plays (that differ from market line the most) you can get this results: 56-37 in 2009-10 season (60,2%) and 53-29 (64,6%) this season. So, can you say it hits over 60%? i dont know and i dont care to honest with you. i do care it to hit consistently but if this is 59% then fine with me. i suppose this will make profit going forward but don't bother about a magical 60% threshold. another thing is i will also play some weaker plays, because i would be missing on some opportunities. if i were obsessed with the %, i would play the strongest ones only, which are this 20-9 (69%) and 14-4 (78%) for respective seasons. so i could play only those and say - oh look i hit 70% long term, but i would play only 20-30 games a season, which is not nearly enough. actually i might give up ome of the weakest plays since they cost me some money in the 2nd part of the season (that's when i started playing the system) but that's not thread for it.

sj keep doing what you do and others let him do the work and not bother about some 60% shit

You don't have time to go through every post to verify something, but you have time to write a short book here with this post.

[InTheDrink]

Whoa....I never ventured into the NBA Handicapping board....kid's got almost 1.5 million views for the season. I'd guess there's a reason for this....?

[sweetjones55]

Again for those that thought this thread would bite me in the butt,

Grizzlies PK LOCKED (x3) WINNER!!

I am rolling with the Grizzlies on Saturday playing at home vs the Spurs. The series is tied up 1-1 with Memphis stealing game 1 and SA winning a close game in game 2. I think Memphis a just a huge mismatch for the Spurs. The combination of Gasol and Randolph matchup very well vs the slower Duncan and smaller Blair. Conley has shown in this series that he and Parker are on the same level at this point in their careers. Conley had 15 points and 10 assists in game 1 and 13 points 4 assists in game 2. Parker has 20 points and 5 assists in game 1 and 12 points 7 assists game 2. They have been fairly even matched up. The role players of Young, Allen, Battier, Mayo and Arthur have been fairly even if not better than SA with Jefferson, Bonner, Neal, McDeyss, and Hill. This is important because Memphis role players will for sure play much better at home, this is almost always the case with your role players/bench.

Memphis could have easily been up 2-0 in this series. Despite SA being in a do or die situation down 1-0 playing at home and horrible play from Gasol, Conley, and Randolphy, the Grizzlies were only down by 2 points with 12 seconds left and were down 1 going into the 4th quarter. This really showed me how much the Grizz match up well with SA. They had a great shot to steal game 2 with their three best players not showing up. The team shot 39%, 21% from 3. Conley shot 6-15 (40%) and only had 4 assists. Gasol was 2-9 (22%) from the field. Randolph was 5-14 (35%) and only had 11 points. Mayo was 2-11 5 points, Battier was 1-7 3 points. If these guys just would have had their "average" numbers then they probably win easily. I expect them to have a better than average numbers in this game at home.

The Grizzlies are a much better team at home than on the road. The Grizzlies were 30-11 during the regular season at home while not even close to .500 on the road at 16-25. The Grizzlies recently played SA March 23 at home, the Grizzlies led from start to finish and won this game by 7 points. The Grizzlies also played at home against SA on March 1, Memphis killed them 109-93. Gasol and Randolph were very effiencent in both these games shooting high %'s. The Grizzlies bench also played very well in these games. Neither of these games were even close. The Grizzlies have never won a playoff game at home in their franchise history, this place is going to be rocking. Memphis should have boatloads of confidence having beaten SA easily at home twice during the regular season and having also stole a game on the road in this series and coming very close to stealing game 2. This game is huge for Memphis because that one road win will mean absolutely nothing if they lose this game and give back home court advantage to the Spurs.

I am expecting big games from Randolph, Gasol and Conley. They all played below average last game and I see them coming out fired up in this next game. I also think there is a good chance you see a big game from OJ Mayo. He's a better shooter at home and had a 17 point game in just 26 minutes at home against SA. I am expecting 15 points or more from him.

The Spurs just haven't been themselves lately. They are just 5-9 their last 14 games. They didn't get their 9th loss to start the season until mid february. So basically they've lost as many games in just one month as they did the first four months of the season. Manu has been struggling and playing hurt, only averaging 11.9ppg his last ten. Blair has been only averaging 6ppg his last ten games. They have just simply been playing their worst ball of the entire season right now. They got way too hot too early.

This Spurs team is not the same Spurs team of the past. Popovich has tried his best to switch it around and turn them into an offensive team. They are giving up more points this year than ever, that is not the recipe for winning in the playoffs. And the fact is that they can't really change that now, they are not a good defensive team. Duncan is a poor slow defender. Parker is a horrible defender. Ginobli is decent off the ball defender but not so much on ball. Blair is an undersized defender. Hill and Neal are average defenders. Mcdeyss is very slow footed as well, Bonner is not good on d. Gasol, Randolph, Conley and Mayo are not phased by anyone on SA. They know they can beat their defender no matter who is on them.

I am expecting a spirited effort from Memphis in game 3. This team is young, confident and can exploit several mismatches on the court. I think they will pound it inside to Gasol and Randolph and capitilize on turnovers in transition. No team in the NBA causes more turnovers than Memphis. They should be able to get a lot of easy baskets on SA and their defense should hold up fairly well. I can't see Memphis getting lazy on defense with the energy in the building. I think they will contest every shot and make it very difficult for SA. They may also get some home calls from the refs. The line opened at Grizzlies PK and quickly went up to Grizzlies -2. I see the Grizzlies winning this game by about 5-7 points.

Huge 3 UNIT WINNER!! Grizzlies come through with the easy win leading from the 1st quarter all the way throughout the game!! Just as I expected this young team played confidently and pounded it inside to Randolph and Gasol. They also had17 fast break points and outscored the Spurs inside. Who needs experience when you got the flat out better team? 1-0 +3 UNITS tonight.

[sweetjones55]

I am starting to smell a possible upset in the Memphis/SA series. The Spurs are limping into the playoffs going 4-6 their last 10 games. And it's not like they weren't trying to win, they wanted the home court against Chicago. The Spurs and Grizzlies played four times this year. They played very recently twice in March, Memphis beat the Spurs by 16 and by 7 points. The first matchup of the season in SA went to OT. The other game in SA the Spurs won by 7. Basically the series was split 2-2 and that OT game could have gone either way as can any OT game so Memphis could have easily gone 3-1 vs SA. Popovich has said countless times that the Spurs go as far as Ginobili takes them. He's not playing. This can get veryyyy interesting.

The matchups are fairly close player to player.
Conley/Parker
Allen/Jefferson
Blair/Gasol
Randolph/Duncan

Memphis bench is Battier, Mayo, Arthur. Spurs got Hill, Neal, Bonner and one of those guys are going to start in place of Manu. I don't see a big edge for the Spurs at all other than the experience factor. The biggest mismatch on the floor is presented by the Grizzlies with Randolph.

Let's get some discussion going on this.

Posted this up before the playoffs started. Really think the Grizzlies are going to take this one down. May look into the series price tomorrow.

[CanuckG]

alright we get it you like attention lock it up

[CanuckG]

you weren't the only one on memphis

[sweetjones55]

you weren't the only one on memphis

I definitely was the first one though. No one posted up Memphis PK right when it came out. You're probably the poster that has posted the most in this thread so you apparently love giving me attention. Didn't even take you 5 minutes to respond to my post in here.

[CanuckG]

5 minutes??? where??

edit: yeah first in the world I bet

[sweetjones55]

5 minutes??? where??

edit: yeah first in the world I bet

I posted at 10:28 and you responded at 10:32. Just now you took even less, three minutes to respond. I wasn't first in the world but I didn't see anyone get Memphis PK.

[CanuckG]

I responded at 10:48...and what does that have to do with anything? It was in players talk so of course I'll open up and respond. Just don't see what you're getting from this thread ...especially if you don't want to become a tout. Bragging about unverified records is cool I guess if youre into that stuff

[sweetjones55]

I responded at 10:48...and what does that have to do with anything? It was in players talk so of course I'll open up and respond. Just don't see what you're getting from this thread ...especially if you don't want to become a tout. Bragging about unverified records is cool I guess if youre into that stuff

Unverified records? Lol you are strictly in players talk and have no clue what you are talking about. Ask any respected poster, Lakerboy, Dexter, lyon804, NoCoin, BL, Lakercrazy, Paco, shari91, jjgold if my records are legit. I post every single one of my plays in my thread and I update them daily. I have a twitter account as well where you can go through my thread and find all my plays there and you well see them on twitter too.

[No coincidences]

Canuck and SJ....

[CanuckG]

Unverified records? Lol you are strictly in players talk and have no clue what you are talking about. Ask any respected poster, Lakerboy, Dexter, lyon804, NoCoin, BL, Lakercrazy, Paco, shari91, jjgold if my records are legit. I post every single one of my plays in my thread and I update them daily. I have a twitter account as well where you can go through my thread and find all my plays there and you well see them on twitter too.

I read all threads in all forums. See that's what I mean. You take it too seriously. I really don't care if you hit 100% or 25%...just proving a point that you care way TOO MUCH.

[sweetjones55]

I read all threads in all forums. See that's what I mean. You take it too seriously. I really don't care if you hit 100% or 25%...just proving a point that you care way TOO MUCH.

Ok we all get that you think I care way too much. You've said it 100 times. Discussion over, good luck on your futures plays

[CanuckG]

Said it once but that's fine. GL.

[vyomguy]

sweetjones vs canuckg = Attention Whore vs Attention Whore

Bring it on guys

[CanuckG]

sweetjones vs canuckg = Attention Whore vs Attention Whore

Bring it on guys

never heard of ya

[Sunde91]

Fact: SJ =



I went through first 20 pages of his thread and don't see him posting a YTD, only see daily, like "2-1 today", so out of nowhere he just posts "60% for the year" without keeping updated regularly.

[Salmon Steak]

I don't flat bet, I have a 1-5 UNIT scale.

[sweetjones55]

Fact: SJ =



I went through first 20 pages of his thread and don't see him posting a YTD, only see daily, like "2-1 today", so out of nowhere he just posts "60% for the year" without keeping updated regularly.

This is not my NBA thread. This is my thread http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basket...icks-p687.html
I update my record once every couple of days. I am currently 115-78-3 (60%) +32.75 UNITS. It's much easier to just check my twitter as there is a lot less clutter to find my records/plays. My twitter is sweetjones55.

[CanuckG]

twitter is sweetjones55
here's his thread http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basket...icks-p687.html
his phone number is 775-594-4301
business e-mail for future tout services sweeteyJ@yahoo.com

you love it sweetjones

[lakerboy]

Sj who said it was impossible to hit 60%? I know I told u that u couldn't hit 60% over 500 plays in one nba season. So who said it couldn't be done over 2 + years?

[hawley]

Sj who said it was impossible to hit 60%? I know I told u that u couldn't hit 60% over 500 plays in one nba season. So who said it couldn't be done over 2 + years?

this thread is directly straight at you IMO

[lakerboy]

twitter is sweetjones55
here's his thread http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basket...icks-p687.html
his phone number is 775-594-4301
business e-mail for future tout services sweeteyJ@yahoo.com

you love it sweetjones

[sweetjones55]

SJ you were a little early with this post. You need two more consecutive wins to be at 60% officially.

No problem 2-0 now since I created the thread. I am now 297-198-9 (60% on the dot), over my last 504 posted plays here on SBR.