They aren't my numbers.
They are what pinnacle is charging, which is exactly what you are trying to use as proof of your arguement.
They are what pinnacle is charging, which is exactly what you are trying to use as proof of your arguement.
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durito - Give me the sell numbers.Comment -
those are the sell numbersComment -
I would like to learn a bit more about that person. Can you tell me how do you know the theory above has any grounds? From what I have read about him I have gotten an impression that he got big with the computer group while doing mostly managerial type of work getting big money down on somebody else's plays. Later on, when he lost the source of those plays, he employed sharp folks who come up with the plays for him. All that would not contradict with a theory that as a bettor he is not necessarily sharp.Comment -
What games? Are they -105 juice or heavy juice one side. If heavy it throws off the percentages which is the key.Comment -
Sorry, I don't really have time to go through pinnacles lines right now.
And since there's nothing to say to convince you otherwise, it's not really worth the effort.Comment -
durito- Obviously you don't have the numbers. How can anything be proved if you don't tell me the line and juice.
Something's fishy. You have time when you think I'm wrong but no time to produce actual numbers which take all of 15 seconds.Comment -
Now I see where you fvcked up. UConn -2 -121/ WV +2 +111. I can't see Pinny dropdown for more.Comment -
It's the only game lined up at 2.
You're a good poster. Don't become another DonJuan with your bullshit I don't have time to look up the only game with a spread of 2 stuff.Comment -
The farther you get a way from -105/-105 when the line stays at 10 cents the less the expected profit for the book.Comment -
not to be a complete idiot, but if you arn't selling your 1/2 to get better odds then why buy a 1/2 to get worse odds/line/juice. If you don't feel your pick then don't take it.
99% of the time your 1/2 means nothing anyways...Comment -
pure- 99% of the time the 1/2 point means nothing at higher spreads.
This is similar to the numbers 3 and 7 in football. They are worth more then other numbers the same way that 2 is worth more in hoops.
If you can buy off/on 3 in football for 10 cents, do it every time.Comment -
only one game at 2 Thurs. C,mon, you were pulling a DonJuan because it was a heavy 2.sorry, i have work to do. i posted all sorts of pinny's numbers in two different threads for you today.
Your numbers today proved that it was worth it to buy onto 2.Comment -
I do believe you wrong here. Big difference in a half in football and a half in baskets.
Take a look at the card tonight. There is only one game were a half would come into play. And I'm talking sides and totals. A half in pro basketball is basically irrelevant. No sense in buying it and relying on it.Comment -
Panic- I have to disagree. Skybook use to give a free 1/2 in hoops and it was a license to print money.Comment -
Not to say your wrong Raiders, but I'd like to see what kind of percentage a half has come into play this year on totals and sides in the pros. I'm a 90 percent total player, don't bet the sides much, so a half to me really doesn't come into play as it does on sides, but I still think in the pros it is overrated.Comment -
Data- Agree with most of it except that BW currently gets opinions from multiple people and then makes his own decision. This goes against the majority at times.Comment -
DonJuan - Anyone can backfit a system and say they are betting +EV. Once again I will never take your data over someone that is infinitely more successful then you at gamblingComment -
i wont read through all of this thread, but DonJuan is about as far from being a 'dumbass' as there is on the boards.Comment -
mo- The donjuan's a total clown on this subject and is using a smoke screen to cover up his ineptness on the subject.
I posted this in ThinktankAre you using closing lines or opening lines? What book? Who steamed the line, square money or sharp? What are the totals? Are you taking home/away into consideration. Are conference games different from non-conference. Are tourney games different? What value are you putting on each teams home court?
There are way too many variables to be accurate just by using lines at covers without taking the above into consideration.
That's why Don's methods are too simplistic.Comment -
I haven't read through this and im sure donjuan doesn't know everything in the world, but he's a talented dude. hes got a sharp mind and if he doesn't understand something its most likely because he hasn't come across it, not because he can't fundamentally grasp it.Comment -
Ganch and Justin are the only two posters that could break down a game mathematically to sway my thoughts on a game. There are probably more that aren't as visible here.
I'll still follow guys like mo's opinions and others but it's not the math.Comment -
I agree 100% but he doesn't have to act like a fvcking asshole when he disagrees which is why I'll never show him any respect. He's dead wrong.likely because he hasn't come across it, not because he can't fundamentally grasp it.
I'll show respect to all other gamblers in these type of threads, agree or disagree.Comment -
Raiders,
Closing lines at Pinnacle is the generally accepted method. The majority of your post is a jumbled mess with totals being the only thing worth even mentioning.
I'm not sure what I'm backfitting exactly, either. What other method would you use to determine push percentages other than past results over a reasonable sample size? A magic wand?
Data,
I guess it depends on your definition of sharp, but plenty of winning sports bettors are sub-optimal. In fact, I would guess that the majority are in some way or another. This is why you shouldn't blindly accept what someone else says, particularly if it's based on hearsay.Comment -
Originally posted by raiders72002
Hes a PECOTA guy i believe.
Ganch, Justin, and Lakerfan are some brilliant guys. Don is on the younger side, but don't let his attitude pollute your overall opinion of his ability. He can be an arrogant ass...there is no denying that. At the end of the day, he can be an asset to the board and hopefully he'll be a little less confrontational in the future, but thats up to him. I respect the guy and ive gone at it with him in the past.Comment -
It's one tool to use, especially if you are making futures bets.
Hes a PECOTA guy i believe.Comment -
I should have just said Don Juan. We had a running argument in the ThinkTank on the subject.but your not showing respect when you call someone a dumbass as the title of your threadComment -
I should have added Lakerfan- He's another guy that I really like.
DonJuan still has no idea what he's talking about. There's absolutely no backpeddling except for one of the early statements long ago, before anyone corrected it, where I said not off of 2.
Don's a joke in my book. Because he knows more then most he thinks he can bully people around with his BS.Comment -
According to Ganchrow (and I am sure donjuan would agree), I am the perfect example of a winning bettor that bets sub-optimally because I don't use Kelly. I RISK fixed percent of BR every play, and have lived to tell about it because I hit a fairly high rate of ML dogs, which Kelly would have forced me to reduce my bets on.Comment -
Have you forgotten his post Holiday Bowl analysis of how ASU +2.5 was the right side despite the fact that they were blown out
DJ is talented and does knows his stuff, but is too dogmatic. The difference between him and Ganch is that Ganch is smarter and considerably more respectful of other's. Ganch could mop the floor with everyone here but instead shows extreme politness and courtesy in his posts--you see the difference. Nobody respects an arrogant ass no matter how smart s/he is.....Comment -
Given the Shrink's propensity towards dishonesty by doing things like directing people to deposit-only sportsbooks and plagiarizing writeups and articles from other sources, I wouldn't believe a word he says. He's posted plays at -7 when the market line was -7.5 and only one of his deposit-only shit books had -7, and then when some other shit book eventually showed -8, he's claimed that BW moved the line a point. I can't think of a message board poster that I'd trust less than the Shrink.Comment -
I'll see if I can't find it. it's classic. The guy was adamant he was on the "right side" b/c ASU closed +1 or PK or something like that and he got +2.5. Even though ASU lost by 30 or something and was never competitive...he still considered himself a winner b/c he got +2.5 and not +1 or PK.Originally posted by raiders72002
The problem Raiders is this total irrationality. Unfortunately, you can't debate with guys like that b/c they are never wrong in their own minds.
Give me a minute to see if I can't find it....Comment -
I never said I was a winner, just that I was on the correct side. If you had a clue what the words Probability Density Function meant, it would help.I'll see if I can't find it. it's classic. The guy was adamant he was on the "right side" b/c ASU closed +1 or PK or something like that and he got +2.5. Even though ASU lost by 30 or something and was never competitive...he still considered himself a winner b/c he got +2.5 and not +1 or PK.Comment
