For those that don't understand the value of 2

[raiders72002]

Shrink

If you use the drop down menu on the Syracuse game as an example, PINNACLE will PAY you 11 CENTS to take Villanova + 2 instead of 2 1/2...

Conversely, PINNACLE will charge you 13 cents to move Syracuse from 2 1/2 to 2 .

[raiders72002]

Shrink

If you use the drop down menu on the Syracuse game as an example, PINNACLE will PAY you 11 CENTS to take Villanova + 2 instead of 2 1/2...

Conversely, PINNACLE will charge you 13 cents to move Syracuse from 2 1/2 to 2 as I am typing this...

I'll go with Pinny and Billy Walters over DonJuan every time.

[durito]

so what

they are charging the same amount right now to buy and sell pts off and on 3.5, 4.5, 7.5, 8.5, 10.5

I don't see any evidence that are valuing the 2 anymore than most #'s

[raiders72002]

So you wouldn't pay 10 cents to move on 2 when it's worth more? I can't log in at Pinny right now. Show me the cost of buying and selling at each particular number.

If you can sell for 11 cents and buy for 10, I don't have to explain the advantage. If you can do it with every number as you say, then you can scalp the board.

[durito]

Pinnacle is charging either 12 or 13 cents off almost every single 1/2 pt number on the board right now

[raiders72002]

durito- FWIW the dumbass comment wasn't meant for you. It was only meant for DonJuan because of the demeaning way in which he presented his disagreement.

[raiders72002]

It's not what they charge, but what they'll give you. Buy for 10 elsewhere and sell for 11 and you can scalp.

[durito]

pinny is charging 12 or 13 cents for 1/2 pt off just about every # on the board right now.

Interesting though they are giving 10 cents on every number but 2, where they are either giving 10 or 11 cents ( 3 games at 2 right now 2 give 10 cents and 1 gives 11)

[durito]

I answered in the other thread regarding that.

The problem is because pinny is -105/-105, you can't scalp that anywhere:

The only game they are giving 11 cents is:

Cal -2 (-107) Wash 2 (-103)

They are only giving 11 on cal -2.5 (+104) and there is no where to scalp that line.

[donjuan]

It's not what they charge, but what they'll give you. Buy for 10 elsewhere and sell for 11 and you can scalp.

This is not coherent with your above post, and not really coherent in general.

[donjuan]

Off subject (somewhat), there was a pretty nice article on statfox about the value of buying points as a whole. Keep in mind this article only focuses on NBA, so you can't really generalize onto other sports even NCAAB it would be difficult to make such inferneces.

Personally I would much rather use Ganchrow's half-point calculator. I am wary of any article that says the following:

"Instead of talking mathematics"

[beetman]

The Shrink is probably the last person from whom I'd take gambling advice.

[raiders72002]

The Shrink is probably the last person from whom I'd take gambling advice

You're missing the boat. He's tight with BW.

[donjuan]

Forgot to mention in my post that buying onto a number is always going to be worth more than buying off of. Your post still indicates nothing about 2 being worth more than other numbers in college basketball.

[raiders72002]

Ganch over BW and Pinny.

Ganch is the best math guy on any forum but BW is the best gambler in the world.

[raiders72002]

This is not coherent with your above post, and not really coherent in general.

why?

[donjuan]

1. You have shown nothing to indicate that the 2 is more valuable than every other number in NCAAB, during the NCAA Tournament or during the regular season.

2. You can be the best handicapper in the world and still make less than optimal decisions such as buying on or off certain numbers at certain prices.

[durito]

I still don't see anything from pinnacle suggesting that they think that buying off the 2 has any more value than any other number. They are charging the same amount to buy off every single number.

And you said it had value during the NCAA tourney, which is certainly not today. Nor have there been enough games with spreads around the 2 in the tourney to make such a statement with any amount of confidence.

The 1/2 pt value calculator is only as good as the push probabilities put into it. But, unless you vastly different data than what exists at covers, there is nothing to support your allegations, irregardless of where you got them.

[raiders72002]

Forgot to mention in my post that buying onto a number is always going to be worth more than buying off of. Your post still indicates nothing about 2 being worth more than other numbers in college basketball.

you're right about buying on is better then buying off. It's futile to try to explain to you why you should by onto 2.

[donjuan]

What part of "they are charging the same for every number" don't you understand?

Also, you have used Pinnacle in your argument before yet you say it's always right to buy on/off 2 in the NCAA Tournament. That's very LOL, almost as LOL as it taking you almost 2 weeks to come up with this poor of an argument.

[raiders72002]

They aren't selling for the same amount. You aren't getting the concept.

raiders

I do NFL and bases and a few games in other sports. The rest I just piggyback. I don't even have data for the other sports so a lot of my numbers may be wrong but I'm sticking with the 2.

I should say on to 2 but not off of 2.

What part of my quote don't you understand

[donjuan]

They aren't selling for the same amount. You aren't getting the concept.

What does it cost to buy onto 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9 at Pinny then?

[raiders72002]

How many times do I have to tell you "SELL". I can't log into Pinny right now.

[donjuan]

How many times do I have to tell you "SELL". I can't log into Pinny right now.

OK, what does it cost to sell for all of those numbers, then?

[donjuan]

Crazyl,

LOL. His original argument was that 2 was a key number that you should always buy on and off in the NCAA Tournament. After getting proven to be an idiot by multiple posters, he backtracked to this where his argument goes something like this:

"It's always right to buy onto the 2 but not off. I am basing this on a combination of hearsay (via an intermediary party) and Pinnacle. And because Pinnacle is always right, it's correct to buy on and off the 2 despite the fact that if Pinnacle is always correct, it would never be correct to buy on or off points at Pinnacle."

[raiders72002]

My argument is that you should buy onto 2 because BW ,the best gambler to ever live says so. This is also backed by Pinnacle and people that move money for BW.

Your reply has nothing to do with my argument because you don't understand the difference between selling and buying numbers. According to Pinny today, the only value was to buy onto 2 making 2 the key number.

You can keep throwing shit at the wall hoping that something sticks but you are dead wrong. Now go get your shoeshine box.

[donjuan]

My argument is that you should buy onto 2 because BW ,the best gambler to ever live says so. This is also backed by Pinnacle and people that move money for BW.

Please lay out exactly how Pinnacle backs up your claims that you should always buy onto the 2.

BTW, taking what any person says as gospel without understanding why or challenging it is incredibly stupid.

[raiders72002]

BTW, taking what any person says as gospel without understanding why or challenging it is incredibly stupid.

You're incredible stupid if you don't realize that their are people a hell of a lot smarter then you are.

They have nothing to prove to you because you don't understand it.

Here's how it works. BW says play Chi +4. You say,"thank you" and play Chi.

You think you should interrogate the guy.

Your Village called, they want their idiot back.

[durito]

Unusual to see donjuan getting schooled like this.

he's not getting schooled.


it cost 10 cents to sell off of every game on the board today at pinnacle except one that happened to be -2 where it cost 11. never mind that 3 other games were also -2 and it only cost 10 cents

[durito]

For tomorrow games pinnacle is giving 10 cents off the 2, and 11 cents of the 7.

I guess 7 is now the key number

[raiders72002]

You want a whole write up on the game that I can copy from any publication or do you want BW plays.

Your numbers do not take into consideration the subsets that I'm talking about.

You must have been a real pain in the ass as a child. Why, why ,why

I don't have the numbers. I share info with others that I trust.

If you work with a group you'll understand this concept.

[durito]

11 cents off of 6 as well

[chandler1981]

Excuse my ignorance, but who is BW? Ive been working all day and night and my brain is fried.

Raiders,

In the quote by Shrink, what was the proper play considering the situation. Was he saying to take Nova +2 or to "middle" and take both.

Sorry, but I wasnt around earlier and havent been able to follow the threads today.

Thanks.

[raiders72002]

For tomorrow games pinnacle is giving 10 cents off the 2, and 11 cents of the 7.

I guess 7 is now the key number

NBA or NCAA? What's the total? Where is the game played? Neutral site? Your numbers are too generic.

[raiders72002]

Chandler - BW is Billy Walters. He was one of the guys in the Computer Group in the '80s. If you google him there are some interesting articles.