NCAA First Half Bets.....

[Imterrible]

This was successful for quite some time. I am sure books have adjusted a bit. We have to follow the guidelines strictly. Judging by that math MSU shouldn't be a play but its tough to check all books for the necessary #'s.

When "potential" plays are posted & you happen to see ML's - Please post them here. Looks like we'll have less plays but I'm sure it'll improve our success rate.


We are looking for 32%.... 48% is not acceptable.

I'm confused.

Is the last criteria "no 1H money line" or the percentage of the 1H ML/Game Ml?


The thread has contradicted itself. Originally it was the ratio, then somehow it became "no 1H ML".....which I never actually saw given as a criteria anyway, now you are saying it is the ratio and it should be >32%.


Trying to follow this, but not sure which criteria is expected to include a team. Not even sure where the "no 1H ML" came from, although it seems more often than not its too hard to find.

Just want to know what the previous years info came up with.

I'll try to help list any info if I find it. I've been following this since the beginning and I'm doing ok. Last night hurt because it was my 2nd loss in 2 days and 3rd in four days. However, if I hadn't made a couple of mistakes with my betting.....I'd still be up. I have played 16 games and I've lost 3 times. If I hadn't made those mistakes and tried to chase a little when I shouldn't have....I'd still be up 4 units.


Thanks Joe for putting this out there. I'll probably find some way to screw it up, but its a neat concept.



BTW.....it looks like there might be as many as 7 games playable today.....maybe more:

[Joe Sharp]

I apologize - It is a bit confusing. I've tried to set it straight... the problem is that there are so many books and 1 out of 25 books may have a ML for the 1st half while the other 24 don't. The ORIGINAL system called for NO 1st Half ML.... this was replaced by the 32% ratio because 1 out of the bunch may actually have a ML.

This shrinks down the # of plays as well as the risk involved.

I've been checking 3 or 4 books and haven't seen any 1st Half ML's so I've been promoting to find these scenerios. But a couple of guys here have mentioned 1 or 2 books that DID in fact have them.



***Thanks a lot for posting that spreadsheet... If we could get something like that on a regular basis it would be extremely helpful!!

[Imterrible]

I'll continue to work on it. Just know that someday's I'll be busier than others. I don't mind though, I'm trying to journal the information for myself...and it only takes an extra minute or two to upload it.

So you're saying that there is a hybrid for right now? Like, use the 32% ratio if you can find it, but if the other criteria work its ok to pull the trigger if there's no ML?

Just need to nail down what a play is. I was looking at my spreadsheet and noticed that I pulled the trigger on a couple of "plays" that weren't in the criteria because I was impatient. They hit, but anything can hit!

I'm keeping it low, so I won't loose everything. Its interesting to play with though.

[jmathes]

Guys, just know that this is a complete crap-shoot here. I looked up the top teams 50 teams and did a little research on them. I chose the top 50 because they typically have fit the criteria for this thread which are:

Remember, We Need:
Game spread =/> 15.5
Half spread =/> 9.5
Game ML =/> 1800
and NO HT ML

For the top 50 teams I found that several times there were consecutive losses. You would have lost units whether you flat bet or chased in the 2nd half. There were some instances that a team fit under the proper criteria and lost 4-5 games in a row, and even worse both halves. So if you chased those teams you would have lost 3.3 units in 5 games totaling -16.5 units.

I can assure you that this system will yield a loss in units over time.

[Joe Sharp]

Show me a spreadsheet for backup.

It's impossible that you backtracked the Top 50 teams and got all of the necessary information.

[Imterrible]

I edited my spreadsheet above.


Wichita St cashed already....they covered in both haves (-9.5/-5.5). I only played the first half though, as that's the "system".

As far as this working or not....who knows. I've read that no system is going to work over the long run and honestly if one did and became public they'd probably change the rules or the lines. The books can't really operate if they can be mathematically beat by the public, can they?

I picked my name because of my history with betting. I'm here to have some fun, I'm up this year....but the way I play I can lose it all in 10 minutes (almost did a couple of weeks ago)!

I just like the looks of this and I'll ride it a bit until it looks like it might sink.

No worries either way and I appreciate the opportunity. I don't know anything about basketball betting and mostly stick to NCAA FB, so this just gives me another opportunity for action. Win or lose, I'm just playing around.

[ebbearsfb1]

whats joe sharp playing tonight?

[coinpusha]

any thought on the texas am thanksgiving game 1st half

[Joe Sharp]

I've got Missouri & Florida locked 1st half.



My own play tonight is Kstate +5.5 over Duke.

[ebbearsfb1]

people were saying this was profitable last year... any one have an exact record?

[ebbearsfb1]

looks like ur gonna be chasing ohio state, florida, missouri based off that early spread sheet... based off what i can tell so far

[ebbearsfb1]

refuse to chase florida there pathetic....

[daneault23]

Well terrible 1st halfs for all the teams, only to cover all the 2nd halfs . Only one pending is Illinois

[daneault23]

Perfect day today. I coulda swore I made the Illini bet for 2nd half, but it wasn't there but they won anyways 8-0 today with 2 1st half winners, and then 6 2nd halfers winning.

I was reading people's comments about the HT ML and game ML and the plays I had were just based on the >15.5 ATS for the game and >9.5 for 1st half, so those plays might have "technically" not have been plays after all.

[daxaarich]

Guys, just know that this is a complete crap-shoot here. I looked up the top teams 50 teams and did a little research on them. I chose the top 50 because they typically have fit the criteria for this thread which are:

Remember, We Need:
Game spread =/> 15.5
Half spread =/> 9.5
Game ML =/> 1800
and NO HT ML

For the top 50 teams I found that several times there were consecutive losses. You would have lost units whether you flat bet or chased in the 2nd half. There were some instances that a team fit under the proper criteria and lost 4-5 games in a row, and even worse both halves. So if you chased those teams you would have lost 3.3 units in 5 games totaling -16.5 units.

I can assure you that this system will yield a loss in units over time.

Can you demonstrate with spreadsheet? ty

[jgray]

After a rough few days the games finished in a way the system was designed to take advantage of yesterday.

Looks like only one play so far today in Arkansas.

GL -22/-4750
1HL -12.5/ no 1H ML.
*5dimes

[Joe Sharp]

[daneault23]

What about Oklahoma?

Game ML -2150
Spread -17
1st half -9.5
5Dimes

[jgray]

What about Oklahoma? Game ML -2150 Spread -17 1st half -9.5 5Dimes

Arkansas has moved to -13 1H

[Joe Sharp]

Chaminade makes me a bit nervous after the way they played MSU the other night.... but I'm on the EARLY game with Oklahoma. Arkansas later.... Good Luck guys!!


Oklahoma
Arkansas
USC

[Imterrible]

I screwed up terribly last night. Placed all the bets and then went out with the intention of making the 2H bets on mobile. Got caught up doing what I was doing and missed all but one of the 2H covers!!!!!

I ended up going 4-4, which cost me a bit of juice......but I should've been up 4 bets.

Don't make the 1H bets unless you know you can follow up.....it may cost you!



Looks like 3 games right now:

[Imterrible]

I thought the same thing about Chaminade.....but their game against Wichita St cashed yesterday, so who knows. More importantly, the game is outside of your parameters if you check the spreadsheet i posted. That said, I too pulled the trigger on them, but it was because I saw the numbers real quick.....then saw the game was starting and fired off before I looked it over (again....I'm not very good at this ).


I don't think USC is a play and right now LSU & Minny are........good luck.

[Imterrible]

HAPPY THANKSGIVING!


Not sure what Joe wanted to call a play yesterday, but I picked Arkansas, LSU, and Minnesota. Went 2-1......Arky didn't cover either half and LSU/Minny both covered in the first half.


This is what I have today:

[jgray]

One question I have about this that we should discuss. I've noticed there has been some discussion about whether a certain team might be a play. I thought the original post mentioned that you look at openers.

Looking at openers makes since, IMO, becuase for most of these 1h lines, they move against us (meaning they go higher) if you don't jump on the opener. You are giving up potential winners by waiting to see if they are plays. Conversely, if something "becomes" a play and moves over 9.5, it means you left points on the table if you had played it earlier.

I think the correct way to do this is only look at the openers. If it's a play get on it.

Using this logic, I believe OU was a play and a double loss yesterday. They opened at -9.5 1H and all other factors indicated play upon the opener (there was no 1h ML at the opener). Later, it moved to -9 and became a non-play. Also 30 minutes before tip a 1h ML showed up that also indicated it was a non-play. It failed to cover both halves.

Thoughts from others?

***I feel like I say this a lot in this thread, but everyone should tread very cautiously here with their wagers. So far, it's been breaking close to even, that's all.

[kimbollmark]

Oklahoma was so shitting, Chaminade?

[Imterrible]

One question I have about this that we should discuss. I've noticed there has been some discussion about whether a certain team might be a play. I thought the original post mentioned that you look at openers.

Looking at openers makes since, IMO, becuase for most of these 1h lines, they move against us (meaning they go higher) if you don't jump on the opener. You are giving up potential winners by waiting to see if they are plays. Conversely, if something "becomes" a play and moves over 9.5, it means you left points on the table if you had played it earlier.

I think the correct way to do this is only look at the openers. If it's a play get on it.

Using this logic, I believe OU was a play and a double loss yesterday. They opened at -9.5 1H and all other factors indicated play upon the opener (there was no 1h ML at the opener). Later, it moved to -9 and became a non-play. Also 30 minutes before tip a 1h ML showed up that also indicated it was a non-play. It failed to cover both halves.

Thoughts from others?

I'm not experienced enough to make a really informed response, but wouldn't it be best to follow the tactic that usually ends up telling you to pick what ends up being the winner or to lay off what ends up being a loser? I don't know which way the math leads, but since I got in late on Oklahoma yesterday....I saw it as a non-play...so I didn't. Arky was and I lost! Who knows?

***I feel like I say this a lot in this thread, but everyone should tread very cautiously here with their wagers. So far, it's been breaking close to even, that's all.

I don't want to take anything away from your advice, because its obviously solid. However, since I've been following this I've had 26 plays. If I hadn't made a couple of mistakes with my betting, I would be up 10 units including the 3 unit losses of the games that didn't hit.

I don't have any idea if it will carry out through the season, so don't take my statement as a guarantee.....but I think +10 units on 26 games isn't too bad, right?

Just my thoughts.

[Joe Sharp]

Happy Thanksgiving fellas!

After the holiday ill take a closer look at all of your suggestions. Its clear that this isn't as smooth as years past..... perhaps we should tweak it a bit.

[jgray]

Wisconsin failed to cover the 1H.

Joe, if you recall, I mentioned something about incorporating a pace component. Wisconsin is an example of why. The margin for error for this team in -12 1h line is very small.

[jgray]

Wisconsin failed to cover the 1H. Joe, if you recall, I mentioned something about incorporating a pace component. Wisconsin is an example of why. The margin for error for this team in -12 1h line is very small.

Wisconsin failed in the 2H as well. I also wonder whether these big lines (with 2H chases) would be more profitable at home with the emotion of the home crowd to lend support. Lots of these double losses are preseason tourneys.

[Joe Sharp]

I'm on Arizona State -12 in an hour.

[Imterrible]

Arizona St cashed 1H.

11-2 for last 3 days.

If this holds out...and I'm not saying it will.....discipline is pretty important. For that 3 day run, you'd be up 5 bets. I've been picking opportunities to double some bets and its not a good way to do it. Pick a unit and stay with it.

My discipline is awful....

I have played 28 games for a record of 23-5. I should be up about 6 bets after the juice, but I'm not....I'm down a lot and its all because I didn't use good money management (also made a couple of mistakes when I bet and I missed all the second half hits on Tuesday).

Jgray you are right to advise caution. I've stayed positive because of some other bets, so I'm going to be a little wiser going forward.

Looks like at least Ohio State tomorrow.

[illarytot]

23-5 and down? very bad money manageement!!

[Imterrible]

23-5 and down? very bad money manageement!!

LoL. Yea, I know!

I made a couple of mistakes.

1) Early in the system I got scared on a first half fail so I didn't bet the second.....it covered. If you're going to follow the system....do it...I just make the bet now.

2) One second half bet I was in a hurry, made the bet, got to the confirmation screen, thought I'd entered the code and left. Came back hours later to find I'd not solidly hit the "enter" button. The game covered.

3)Couple of days ago the system went 8-0, I was busy drinking and playing live poker when the second half bets should've been made.......everything covered....system 8-0; me 4-4.

4)I tried to chase big on the Wisconsin game.......it failed both halves.



I'm only listing all this to show how dangerous it can be. At 23-5, the score is really like 23-15 because each loss is x3. Even if the system works, its still going to be very necessary to pay attention to what you're doing. I'm ok because I've made other bets at the same time and won....but I'm going to try to use a little more discipline going forward.

[Timmah2483]

so Maryland and Ohio St would be a play today, correct?

I like both of these teams. Maryland played great against #17 Illinois and #4 Pitt. especially 1st half. they cant make FTs to save their life, so game and 2nd half is tricky. they havent won a second half since their first national TV game. everyone has figured out if your down, foul!

[Imterrible]

4 plays as of right now (although I can't find a 1h ml, so this is going on the "no 1H ML" system). If anybody has more information, I'll update the spreadsheet: