NCAA First Half Bets.....

The Seer · 11-22-10, 11:03 AM

what was the record yesterday?

Joe Sharp · 11-22-10, 11:47 AM

5 Games fit the system yesterday.....

Syracuse Lost both halves

Purdue Lost the 1st but Covered the 2nd

VTech, Arizona and South Florida all Covered the 1st half

Single Play Record: 4-3
Chase: 4-1

Either way your looking at about +.7 Units.

If you were lucky enough to miss the Syracuse game you would have had a very nice day.

daneault23 · 11-22-10, 01:36 PM

So why is it so important that there is no ML for the 1st half? If all of the other criteria are met, but there is a ML for 1st half, technically it would be a no play. Does that really matter?

daneault23 · 11-22-10, 01:42 PM

For example, at my book 5Dimes, the only plays that would qualify are Michigan State and Louisville. But Louisville has a 1st half ML, and Michigan State doesn't. I checked other books and there is no 1st half ML for the Louisville game. I will probably play both, but was just asking because my book offers the ML, while others do not.

Joe Sharp · 11-22-10, 04:53 PM

Originally posted by Joe Sharp

The biggest indicator and most important factor is the percentage of the 1st H ML to the game ML. Divide the 1st half ML by the game ML and this number must be under 32%. If it passes this criterion then you have a play. If it is under 32% that is the threshold for statistical relevancy as related to our current knowledge what is the success rate? The answer is two fold. This play (remember only in NCAA bb) has historical data success rate of 70%. The other component is this. We are talking about potential blowout games and in nearly every case if the underdog does cover the 1st half resulting in a loss, the favored team covers the 2nd half at such a high percentage that posting the number here might make heads explode. Yes, occasionally you will lose both halves but the percentages are in your favor.

See Post #1

Joe Sharp · 11-22-10, 04:54 PM

No 1st Half ML was part of the 'original' system and works for MOST. If you consistently get 1st half ML's... You should use the method described above (dividing the ML's).

Please feel free to share your Math here!!

Joe Sharp · 11-22-10, 04:59 PM

Potential Plays

Louisville
Michigan State (absurd line)
Missouri State

HOOKEMcnh · 11-22-10, 06:30 PM

Is anyone taking Mich. State? I have them at -18 for 1H!

ebbearsfb1 · 11-22-10, 06:32 PM

when will they be said whats official?

ACoochy · 11-22-10, 06:33 PM

On Louisville and M.State here and am prepared to chase if necessary. Il only wager a total of 3% of BR when chasing this early in season as too many unknown factors to take into account...GL

ebbearsfb1 · 11-22-10, 06:37 PM

which m state? is that missouri or mich?

ACoochy · 11-22-10, 06:43 PM

Originally posted by ebbearsfb1

which m state? is that missouri or mich?

Michigan State....Spread is -18 1st half with no ML....Techically doesnt fit into system as cant find a game ML for this anywhere

If someone else knows different then plz let me know...GL

ebbearsfb1 · 11-22-10, 06:47 PM

o okay sounds good... lousville and mizz state it is

daneault23 · 11-22-10, 07:03 PM

Originally posted by ACoochy

Michigan State....Spread is -18 1st half with no ML....Techically doesnt fit into system as cant find a game ML for this anywhere

If someone else knows different then plz let me know...GL

The game ML for MSU is -54000 at 5Dimes to answer your question.

daneault23 · 11-22-10, 07:04 PM

Missouri State is only -8.5 so its not a play cuz its not -9.5 for 1st half.

ACoochy · 11-22-10, 07:05 PM

Originally posted by daneault23

The game ML for MSU is -54000 at 5Dimes to answer your question.

SoCalFisher · 11-22-10, 07:07 PM

Originally posted by daneault23

Missouri State is only -8.5 so its not a play cuz its not -9.5 for 1st half.

Thats what i saw also.

ebbearsfb1 · 11-22-10, 07:36 PM

so no play on mizz state.. back to mich state?

ebbearsfb1 · 11-22-10, 07:54 PM

winner on the ville

daneault23 · 11-22-10, 07:58 PM

Louisville cashes

ebbearsfb1 · 11-22-10, 09:10 PM

mizz state would have also...

ne one playing michigan state -18.5?

jgray · 11-22-10, 09:19 PM

Originally posted by ebbearsfb1

mizz state would have also... ne one playing michigan state -18.5?

Played it small at -18.

ACoochy · 11-22-10, 10:13 PM

Looks like we have a 2nd hald play on Mich St. Personally pounding the number hard if its 17 or under, anything over and its the normal 'double up'.....GL

jgray · 11-22-10, 10:15 PM

Originally posted by ACoochy

Looks like we have a 2nd hald play on Mich St. Personally pounding the number hard if its 17 or under, anything over and its the normal 'double up'.....GL

What, they don't have a 20-0 run in them to end the 1st half?

ACoochy · 11-22-10, 10:25 PM

Originally posted by jgray

What, they don't have a 20-0 run in them to end the 1st half?

If only everything in life was that easy...Ok im seeing -16.5...Said under 17 and im going in hard boyz.....GL

Strange Design · 11-22-10, 10:27 PM

Good luck to everyone on the chase.

HOOKEMcnh · 11-22-10, 10:29 PM

Chimawhatever was throwing up ridiculous shots, hopefully izzo will light a fire under them.

ACoochy · 11-22-10, 10:33 PM

Originally posted by HOOKEMcnh

Chimawhatever was throwing up ridiculous shots, hopefully izzo will light a fire under them.

They should be embarrassed after that route of a 1st half and come out firing early

GL guys.....

jgray · 11-23-10, 12:09 AM

If I'm not mistaken, MSU is the third team in the past five days to fail in both halves.

MSU, Cuse and Boston College.

That's three times in the last 5 days. I'm not saying the system is a failure and should be abandoned. I'm just hoping that everyone coming into this thread now understands blindly tailing a system can lead you to ruins. And again, as I've said earlier. It's very early. Go very easy on these plays until teams get sorted out. Good luck everyone.

On to the next one.

ACoochy · 11-23-10, 01:37 AM

Originally posted by jgray

If I'm not mistaken, MSU is the third team in the past five days to fail in both halves. MSU, Cuse and Boston College. That's three times in the last 5 days. I'm not saying the system is a failure and should be abandoned. I'm just hoping that everyone coming into this thread now understands blindly tailing a system can lead you to ruins. And again, as I've said earlier. It's very early. Go very easy on these plays until teams get sorted out. Good luck everyone. On to the next one.

Good point. Went a little silly today as already 5-1 for the day using similar system to this (no chase)...After revising im not sure if the Michigan State play actually fit the criteria re 'The biggest indicator and most important factor is the percentage of the 1st H ML to the game ML. Divide the 1st half ML by the game ML and this number must be under 32%.'
My calcuations had this figure at 48% (-26000 Michigan St 1st half ML/-54000 MIchigian St FG ML from 5 dimes)....
Can someone please confirm this for me....Hope i am wrong....GL

Strange Design · 11-23-10, 01:52 AM

EDIT: Nevermind, I'm wrong here.

illarytot · 11-23-10, 06:45 AM

I agree, later in the season more predictable

BigMama · 11-23-10, 07:12 AM

Great day for all

Joe Sharp · 11-23-10, 09:38 AM

This was successful for quite some time. I am sure books have adjusted a bit. We have to follow the guidelines strictly. Judging by that math MSU shouldn't be a play but its tough to check all books for the necessary #'s.

When "potential" plays are posted & you happen to see ML's - Please post them here. Looks like we'll have less plays but I'm sure it'll improve our success rate.

We are looking for 32%.... 48% is not acceptable.

jgray · 11-23-10, 09:45 AM

Originally posted by ACoochy

Good point. Went a little silly today as already 5-1 for the day using similar system to this (no chase)...After revising im not sure if the Michigan State play actually fit the criteria re 'The biggest indicator and most important factor is the percentage of the 1st H ML to the game ML. Divide the 1st half ML by the game ML and this number must be under 32%.'
My calcuations had this figure at 48% (-26000 Michigan St 1st half ML/-54000 MIchigian St FG ML from 5 dimes)....
Can someone please confirm this for me....Hope i am wrong....GL

I don't see a 1H ML for the MSU game on 5dimes on the SBRodds page? Where did you see it? On 5dimes directly?