***Full disclosure: Everybody remember CK? This was posted in one of his old threads. I'd give credit to all the guys that worked on it but I did not take good enough notes. Anyway I used this a couple of years ago and made some serious $$.***
NCAA 1st Half Bets
Criteria:
No Money Line for the Half
Spread of at least -9.5
The premise is to take games that are potential blowouts and bet the first half as it has a higher percentage of cashing and avoiding the backdoor late cover by the underdog against an inflated line. Now, talking strictly men's NCAA bb the criteria for a game with blowout potential is; Opening line should be -15.5 or higher, and most importantly an opening ML of -1800. The 1st H must be at least -9.5. If any of these falls below the criteria it falls outside of the model I have been working on and you are on your own there. The biggest indicator and most important factor is the percentage of the 1st H ML to the game ML. Divide the 1st half ML by the game ML and this number must be under 32%. If it passes this criterion then you have a play. If it is under 32% that is the threshold for statistical relevancy as related to our current knowledge what is the success rate? The answer is two fold. This play (remember only in NCAA bb) has historical data success rate of 70%. The other component is this. We are talking about potential blowout games and in nearly every case if the underdog does cover the 1st half resulting in a loss, the favored team covers the 2nd half at such a high percentage that posting the number here might make heads explode. Yes, occasionally you will lose both halves but the percentages are in your favor.
NCAA 1st Half Bets
Criteria:
No Money Line for the Half
Spread of at least -9.5
The premise is to take games that are potential blowouts and bet the first half as it has a higher percentage of cashing and avoiding the backdoor late cover by the underdog against an inflated line. Now, talking strictly men's NCAA bb the criteria for a game with blowout potential is; Opening line should be -15.5 or higher, and most importantly an opening ML of -1800. The 1st H must be at least -9.5. If any of these falls below the criteria it falls outside of the model I have been working on and you are on your own there. The biggest indicator and most important factor is the percentage of the 1st H ML to the game ML. Divide the 1st half ML by the game ML and this number must be under 32%. If it passes this criterion then you have a play. If it is under 32% that is the threshold for statistical relevancy as related to our current knowledge what is the success rate? The answer is two fold. This play (remember only in NCAA bb) has historical data success rate of 70%. The other component is this. We are talking about potential blowout games and in nearly every case if the underdog does cover the 1st half resulting in a loss, the favored team covers the 2nd half at such a high percentage that posting the number here might make heads explode. Yes, occasionally you will lose both halves but the percentages are in your favor.
I'm not sure that would be enough.
