Outside The Box

[20Four7]

They will cut your limits, then eventually close your account is you beat them too badly. You probably already know that, but it happened to me about 2 years ago, thought I'd give you a headsup.

I know this. From friends I've talked to the number is somewhere between 15 and 20K. At this point they will limit you and shortly after give you the boot. Still that is better than bowmans which after 1 year of treading water with them and never making a withdrawal I hit 10 days where I won 6K withdrew 5K of it and got limited to $10 max bets 3 days later. They did process my withdrawal for the remaining amount which was fine.

[donjuan]

Just my .02, but since we're discussing it, is that the opener is set by LVSC, which is not in the business of dealing bad lines to their clients. If it stands to reason that the opener is a good number, you are getting free points on whatever move occurs.

Besides the obvious fact that LVSC has to put out lines on thousands of games a week while sports bettors get to sit back and pick off the soft lines, injuries do happen and the line moves accordingly.

[durito]

LVSC's #'s aren't terribly important these days. You can't bet those #'s anywhere.

Cris will open up with completely different numbers (sometimes), greek/pinnacle will follow. The lines will move, settle somewhere, then the vegas books will open. Guess which line they are going to copy?

[katstale]

Good to see you guys are kicking this around. I realize it is tuff not to get over analytical--sometimes the answer is the simplest solution.

Remember, you are not trying to be a genius--just bet against all the people who think they are!!!

I see you guys have a friend who helped you with the "grail"--hats off to Joe Vig.

As for "when" to pounce and how close to monitor it??

I know some who spent alot of time and managed only a couple more wagers per day than myself. I take the lazy approach--an hour or two before the first games go off. I lock in the plays and keep the stats from that.

Best 15-20 minutes per day job a guy could ever have!! As many have said--bet it small at first and keep good numbers.

[pico]

Good to see you guys are kicking this around. I realize it is tuff not to get over analytical--sometimes the answer is the simplest solution.

Remember, you are not trying to be a genius--just bet against all the people who think they are!!!

I see you guys have a friend who helped you with the "grail"--hats off to Joe Vig.

As for "when" to pounce and how close to monitor it??

I know some who spent alot of time and managed only a couple more wagers per day than myself. I take the lazy approach--an hour or two before the first games go off. I lock in the plays and keep the stats from that.

Best 15-20 minutes per day job a guy could ever have!! As many have said--bet it small at first and keep good numbers.

i like to seek some kind of concensus here. can we all agree on the opening line for Cris should be used here?

[durito]

Now its coming together for you. Durito, I would love to see those football #'s because it is instructive for each of you building your own particular model. We are gonna be all over this "tease the line" philosophy and how to achieve it. Well, I should say I will keep pointing you in this direction.

NFL from 1978 through 2007 season (regular season and playoffs)

Based on this particular data set:

Home teams were 3551-3498-199 ATS (4226-3008 SU) and 4910-2191-147 ATS (68.1%) with a 6pt tease.

[xyz]

San Antonio vs Minnesota fits the model today (2/21/2008)

The total for the San Antonio vs Minnesota game started at 184 (http://www.tmsfeatures.com/tmsfeatur...jsp?catid=1039), now it is at 179. So based on the model, we should bet on the over at 179. Is that right? Thanks.

[durito]

I see the SA/MIN total opening at 182.5 at Pinnacle at 10:22 AM EST

[pico]

i can see the game end with 181 pts scored.

i'll keep track of the game

[HedgeHog]

A 3 point move on an NBA Total is minor compared to the same move on the side. Would you play the same amount on these type of moves?

[Munson15]

A 3 point move on an NBA Total is minor compared to the same move on the side. Would you play the same amount on these type of moves?

I agree that totals are much less sensitive to landing very close to numbers than sides. I won't even play totals under this method, but I would play against 'rogue' lines on totals that are 2< points off. That, however, is a separate category of plays, IMO.

[Munson15]

i like to seek some kind of concensus here. can we all agree on the opening line for Cris should be used here?

I still like Kat's newspaper idea. I don't know if Cris is any better than Pinnacle as far as what opener to use. Those lines may have been flattened out a little by the time you see them, anyway.

[durito]

Back to the teaser question here is all the data I have for 6pt teasers. I'm not sure 6pt teasers are even offered in basketball, but I can give the data for any #.

NFL Football (1978-2007, regular season and playoffs):

Home 3551-3498-199 ATS
4226-3008 SU
4910-2191-147 ATS(+6) 69.1%

Visitor 3498-3551-199 ATS
3008-4226 SU
4832-2280-136 ATS(+6) 67.9%

NCAA Football (1985-2007)

Home 6891-6748-223 ATS
10122-6216 SU
9070-4621-171 ATS(+6) 66.2%

Visitor 6748-6891-223 ATS
6216-10122 SU
8901-4747-214 ATS(+6) 65.2%

NBA Basketball (1990-2007)

Home 9915-10223-460 ATS
12657-8084 SU
14358-5862-378 ATS(6+) 71.0%

Visitor 10223-9915-460 ATS
8084-12657 SU
14615-5619-364 ATS(6+) 72.2%

NCAA Basketball (2000-yesterday)

Home 11505-11603-536 ATS
26590-12818 SU
16705-6481-458 ATS (6+) 72.0%

Visitor 11603-11505-536 ATS
12818-26590 SU
16821-6414-409 ATS (6+) 72.4%

[20Four7]

Completely irrelevant to this thread, but SIA did limit me today to 10% of their max bet. Seems like my 6K withdrawal set them off. Now to get my other 5 K out.

[Arnold]

I verified katstale's theory and it does not work. Actually, it works, but the other way around - you bet on the side that the line moves to. To test this, I wrote a quick program that collects historical opening/closing line data (from this site), analyzes it, and gives me the results. I let it run through 2006 and current 2007 NBA seasons (ignoring playoffs).

Here is what I got:

2-point+ move========

2006
ATS: 70-94 (42.7%)
OU: 248-238 (51%)

2007
ATS: 36-47 (43.4%)
OU: 145-148 (49.5%)

TOTAL
ATS: 106-141 (42.9%)
OU: 393-386 (50.4%)


3-point+ move==========

2006
ATS: 26-31 (45.6%)
OU: 129-131 (49.6%)

2007
ATS: 13-22 (37.1%)
OU: 70-63 (52.6%)

TOTAL
ATS: 39-53 (42.4%)
OU: 199-194 (50.6%)


4-point+ move==========

2006
ATS: 9-15 (37.5%)
OU: 79-70 (53%)

2007
ATS: 6-13 (31.6%)
OU: 28-25 (52.8%)

TOTAL
ATS: 15-28 (34.9%)
OU: 107-95 (53%)


2-point+ move before the actual move==========

2006
ATS: 57-111 (33.9%)
OU: 213-276 (43.6%)

2007
ATS: 32-53 (37.6%)
OU: 119-177 (40.2%)

TOTAL
ATS: 89-164 (35.2%)
OU: 332-453 (42.3%)


Now, if you would know where the line will move, before it actually moves, you would have a 65%+ winning percentage This information can also be useful to make you feel more confident about your bet if the line moves (after your bet) to the side you picked.

[HedgeHog]

This agrees what I originally thought--the latest line is sharpest. But this is thinking w/i the box. My 2008 info verifies this, but I was going back further before posting. It just doesn't work. Kats shouldn't stray outside the box.

[katstale]

Glad to see we are looking to try and quantify this--but to analyze data--you first have to put in the right data!!! lolol

Opening lines and closing lines data from SBR archives is not gonna do it boys.

[durito]

Glad to see we are looking to try and quantify this--but to analyze data--you first have to put in the right data!!! lolol

Opening lines and closing lines data from SBR archives is not gonna do it boys.

What data do you suggest then?

[Arnold]

Glad to see we are looking to try and quantify this--but to analyze data--you first have to put in the right data!!! lolol

Opening lines and closing lines data from SBR archives is not gonna do it boys.

I remember you saying on page 3:

You CAN use Pinny as the base, but the example given will give you many more games to wager on and will also yield many more basketball games which will meet the formula on any given game day.

Did you change your opinion by now?

[DukeJohn]

When I did the 3pnts on Football as I posted earlier, I got the same results as Arnold did on the NBA. If the line moves 3 or more pnts, then bet with it not against it. It appears to have done well for both the NBA and Football... I used the opening and closing lines listed here also. Unfortunately, they do not go back very far.

[Munson15]

Glad to see we are looking to try and quantify this--but to analyze data--you first have to put in the right data!!! lolol

Opening lines and closing lines data from SBR archives is not gonna do it boys.

That's why I figured there was no sense backtesting this. You don't have hard numbers, right, Kat? Just an overall picture that looks pretty good, that you've made some good coin on. I'm not sure where I'm headed with this, but I'm starting from scratch, and it's 6-2-1 so far. Please keep up with this thread as I will continue to post results as I record them.

[Munson15]

When I did the 3pnts on Football as I posted earlier, I got the same results as Arnold did on the NBA. If the line moves 3 or more pnts, then bet with it not against it. It appears to have done well for both the NBA and Football... I used the opening and closing lines listed here also. Unfortunately, they do not go back very far.

Giving away 3 points on any sport from the opening line goes against any instinct I've ever had. This does not seem possible unless you restricted yourself to games where a key player was injured or some extraneous factor played into the result. I can't fathom that you could profit from chasing that kind of steam in any sport. Once the value is choked out of a number, I don't believe it can be a winning proposition. Somebody's stats are way off here.

[katstale]

I remember you saying on page 3:

You CAN use Pinny as the base, but the example given will give you many more games to wager on and will also yield many more basketball games which will meet the formula on any given game day.

Did you change your opinion by now?

True, I said "you can", but didn't say I did or would. I could speculate and say Bodog "square" lines might be helpful too, but I never tried it--just thinkin out loud.

As I said, I realize simplicity is sometimes hard to swallow. Munson is on the right track--follow the crumb trail I laid out and some months from now we will have some great numbers to look at.

AND, as I have repeated in this thread several times--if you are doing better than 54% on your own--don't trouble yourself with this stuff. GL to all.

[durito]

Giving away 3 points on any sport from the opening line goes against any instinct I've ever had. This does not seem possible unless you restricted yourself to games where a key player was injured or some extraneous factor played into the result. I can't fathom that you could profit from chasing that kind of steam in any sport. Once the value is choked out of a number, I don't believe it can be a winning proposition. Somebody's stats are way off here.

Then why is it that sportsbooks limit and boot players for playing steam?

Why do books have their highest limits right before game time?

If what you all are saying (in contrast to available data) is true, shouldn't books do the opposite?

[katstale]

Durito, I could quote you the reason for booting steam players (they do not want their books unbalanced right before game time) direct from Greek and other places--but it would go against some previously held positions/ideas here.

It is the only real reason they don't like steam.

Edit: I really got to get out of this thread!! lol

[Arnold]

True, I said "you can", but didn't say I did or would. I could speculate and say Bodog "square" lines might be helpful too, but I never tried it--just thinkin out loud.

Well, my testing confirms, that you can't really use them for your theory. However, you can use them for the exact opposite of what you're trying to do (which is strange). Now, based on my observations, lines from americaslines.com don't differ a whole lot from Pinny lines. If you compare today's lines, for example, there's only a half-point difference on MIA/HOU spread and SA/MIN total. If you could give us good evidence to validate your theory, then we could consider it more seriously. Until then it's just an idea as all other ideas that haven't worked or haven't been tested long-term. 6-2 records don't mean anything, sorry.

[Munson15]

Then why is it that sportsbooks limit and boot players for playing steam?

Why do books have their highest limits right before game time?

If what you all are saying (in contrast to available data) is true, shouldn't books do the opposite?

I think books would be more concerned with you betting steam before they've had a chance to move the line. After they adjust, I believe it is no longer a good bet for you, or a threat to them.

[Munson15]

I see you guys have a friend who helped you with the "grail"--hats off to Joe Vig.

So the LATEST LINE by J.McCarthy is the best source. Kat?

[Munson15]

Had another winner with Middle Tennessee State +3-1/2.

[xyz]

Had another winner with Middle Tennessee State +3-1/2.

San Antonio vs Minnesota total over 179 was also a winner.

[composite]

Noobie here. This is a great thread for thinking thru new approaches to betting.

I'm pretty new at finding "formulas" to betting so please bear w/ me. I've read that betting out-of-conference, unranked home underdogs in college basketball against AP Top 25 teams is a no-brainer way to make $$? Is this true?

Or is this like the 2.5 - 7.5 teaser in NFL discussed in Stanford Wong's book? It may have made $$ at one point, but LV has adjusted properly.

Thanks for your thoughts. I'll resume lurking.

[Munson15]

San Antonio vs Minnesota total over 179 was also a winner.

Where are you getting your opening line from? The line I'm using does not even list totals for baskets. Thanks.

[hhsilver]

Noobie here. This is a great thread for thinking thru new approaches to betting.

I'm pretty new at finding "formulas" to betting so please bear w/ me. I've read that betting out-of-conference, unranked home underdogs in college basketball against AP Top 25 teams is a no-brainer way to make $$? Is this true?

Or is this like the 2.5 - 7.5 teaser in NFL discussed in Stanford Wong's book? It may have made $$ at one point, but LV has adjusted properly.

Thanks for your thoughts. I'll resume lurking.

We are on page 5 of a long and interesting thread that has stayed almost completely on topic. May I suggest that we not use this thread to post unrelated topics like the quoted one . Instead , why not start a new thread?

[xyz]

Where are you getting your opening line from? The line I'm using does not even list totals for baskets. Thanks.

I used the link that JohnVig provided earlier to Tribune Media Services:

http://www.tmsfeatures.com/tmsfeatur...jsp?catid=1039

Kat confirmed in an earlier post that line was good to use.

[Arnold]

I was asked for a comma delimited text file of the NBA opening/closing lines that I gathered, so I will post it here in case someone else wants it too. You can easily import it into any database or Excel.