Outside The Box

[Arnold]

San Antonio vs Minnesota total over 179 was also a winner.

It was, but for another reason. It would have been a winner even if it moved the other way around all the way to 190

[Munson15]

Kat, I checked the Latest Line. Some of the numbers are so far off, I wonder if they can be valid. For instance, the Atlanta-Golden State game tonight. According to America's Line, it opened at 6-1/2, so when the Warriors went to 8-1/2, the Hawks became a play.

When checking the Latest Line, however, the opener was GS -12, and a total of 212. With the present total at 220, I am having trouble figuring how the side dropped so much, and yet the total went so high.

Being that the starting number is the whole crux of the problem we are trying to solve, could you please weigh in and state definitively which line is correct. It doesn't seem possible that the line movement on this particular game follows any logic.

Also, totals are not as sensitive to a close finish, and using Latest Line, I can see where many of the situations are going to involve NBA totals. Surely, my 2 point variance could not be the guideline when tracking totals plays, could it? Thanks for any help you can offer.

[katstale]

Kat, I checked the Latest Line. Some of the numbers are so far off, I wonder if they can be valid. For instance, the Atlanta-Golden State game tonight. According to America's Line, it opened at 6-1/2, so when the Warriors went to 8-1/2, the Hawks became a play.

When checking the Latest Line, however, the opener was GS -12, and a total of 212. With the present total at 220, I am having trouble figuring how the side dropped so much, and yet the total went so high.

Being that the starting number is the whole crux of the problem we are trying to solve, could you please weigh in and state definitively which line is correct. It doesn't seem possible that the line movement on this particular game follows any logic.

Also, totals are not as sensitive to a close finish, and using Latest Line, I can see where many of the situations are going to involve NBA totals. Surely, my 2 point variance could not be the guideline when tracking totals plays, could it? Thanks for any help you can offer.

OK, I am gonna step back in for just a moment. Then I really need to bow out of this thread.

I could understand someone wanting to use a different number for totals vs the spread. I never made any distinction in that. Sorry to say i never kept any stats to break that out from spreads.

Logic might dictate say 3 points on totals and 2 on the spreads--but I can't back that up with stats.

The line you are looking at "the latest line" will be good for what you are doing. That doesn't mean that occasional misprints don't occur. Reversals of numbers, etc. If something is so far off to appear bogus--I throw it out and figure an error. Probably something done by Tony's linesman at 5Dimes!! (ok, that was just a dig at the place who puts up the most bad lines of any book)

I probably would have hit the under on the GS game!!

GL on that.

[Munson15]

OK, I am gonna step back in for just a moment. Then I really need to bow out of this thread.

I could understand someone wanting to use a different number for totals vs the spread. I never made any distinction in that. Sorry to say i never kept any stats to break that out from spreads.

Logic might dictate say 3 points on totals and 2 on the spreads--but I can't back that up with stats.

The line you are looking at "the latest line" will be good for what you are doing. That doesn't mean that occasional misprints don't occur. Reversals of numbers, etc. If something is so far off to appear bogus--I throw it out and figure an error. Probably something done by Tony's linesman at 5Dimes!! (ok, that was just a dig at the place who puts up the most bad lines of any book)

I probably would have hit the under on the GS game!!

GL on that.

Ok, I was 7-2-1 with America's Line, but Latest Line it is. They do have the advantage of posting NBA totals. And, I was thinking 4 points would be the move on a total that I would feel comfortable with. Glad you like 2 on sides, that's exactly where I wanted to be from the start.

Just wanted to say I appreciate you getting this thread started, and I will post the record here for all to see. Just wish America's Line and Latest Line were more in synch, I loved having the morning local paper as my guide. I was literally doing what you described, reading the paper with my coffee and figuring the plays.

Not for nothing, but I'd love to know why the Latest Line would be the key source vs. some other line. Does it have to do with where that particular number originates? I remember years back, the Latest Line was the local paper line, and on football Sundays, I used to wish my guy would let me use it. Their lines seemed very stale even to this amateur.

I believe the first J.McCarthy died, and his son took over the column, probably 10-15 years ago. I used to beat the hell out of their split hockey puck lines. Nobody uses them anymore, and I suck at the money lines that are the norm today.

Anyway, Kat, sorry to ramble, but please keep an eye on things, and again, I appreciate you putting down those breadcrumbs so this reader could finally, hopefully, figure out a way to keep my head above water in baskets.

[Data]

This long thread, is it just to tell us that the holy grail aka "outside the box" is following somebody which translates to "find a good tout"? This is pathetic...

[Munson15]

Looks like 10-3 so far, not too shabby, Data.

[pico]

This long thread, is it just to tell us that the holy grail aka "outside the box" is following somebody which translates to "find a good tout"? This is pathetic...

well, i kind of agree with you, but i think kat's theory is a little different than "find a good tout". i think her theory is more in line with the strategies likes, "following the sharp play", "follow the steam move", "bet against the public". because her strategy doesn't account for any information regarding the game itself but only purely making speculations based on line differences.

i also read somewhere that someone posted a system for ncaa bb non-conference plays. bet the small home favs 1st half if there is a certain line movement before the game and take the away for 2nd half. imo, all these system will work when it is posted because i think someone will notice a random correlation and think there is something up...over the long run, i doubt any system will consistently win over 50%.

all this talk about source of opening lines is just a way to backfit the theory with the new games that doesn't seem just to "fit the theory" anymore.

still interesting discussion though. i am glad you brought this up kat and got bunch of people doing research. at least i know which poster has some computer skills and willing to spend time and test new theories...now that is motivation

[katstale]

This long thread, is it just to tell us that the holy grail aka "outside the box" is following somebody which translates to "find a good tout"? This is pathetic...

Don't get that at all! Who? Where? Didn't see a tout mentioned anywhere. Can't for the life of me see how you came to that conclusion. Maybe Munson is the tout??

[Munson15]

First losing day for me tracking these. Total now 12-9 by my count.

[chemist]

This long thread, is it just to tell us that the holy grail aka "outside the box" is following somebody which translates to "find a good tout"? This is pathetic...

I agree. This thread is pretty poor.

[Munson15]

Did a short backtest for those interested in the disparity between America's Line and the Latest Line. Since I started tracking the America's Line side of this, the results are 14-10 Latest Line version has done 18-18 One of the reasons for the number of plays at Latest Line being larger is that they list totals for NBA games, and America's Line does not.

I thought I'd post the results so far in case anyone wants to track along with me. These numbers represent the period of Feb 18-24. Will post results periodically whether it does well or not.

[Arnold]

I actually like the best bet picks from Latest Line. Most of them win.

[Munson15]

Just an update, the plays have cooled off, predictably. We are now at 14-12 using America's Line. Will update periodically.

[Arnold]

I hope you're not betting them. Or else you'll be soon going in debt.

[Munson15]

26-24 to date using America's Line.

[Arnold]

I guess we're still wrong and katstale is right, right, right.

[20Four7]

26 and 24 is 52% which is not much better than flipping a coin and over a small sample means nothing. Remember you need about 52% just to beat the juice.

[Munson15]

I guess you guys know I wasn't bragging, just thought since I spent so much time debating the point, I should update periodically.

[Munson15]

35-30 through last night's action.

[katstale]

Player!!!! Keep it up.

[Munson15]

Just for you, Kat, 46-36 through last night's action.

[Munson15]

I actually like the best bet picks from Latest Line. Most of them win.

He seems to know his NBA. 47-39 since the 1st of the year.

[Munson15]

Updated record using America's Line------63-47 through 3/26.

[DukeJohn]

Updated record using America's Line------63-47 through 3/26.

Not bad for something that only takes a few minutes to do.

[Munson15]

Not bad for something that only takes a few minutes to do.

Thank you Duke.

[xyz]

Application to baseball

How would we apply this strategy in baseball? Possibly based on the movement on the openning ML line?

[Munson15]

Fellas,
I've been following this discussion for a while, and thought I would give a try. First, I looked around and found this place for lines - seems like a newspaper kind of place:

http://www.tmsfeatures.com/tmsfeatures/subcategory.jsp?catid=1039

Munson, I think I am going try to play these games whenever they move to 2 pts. I took that Tennessee game when it moved to 2 and I'm glad I did.

Some people here were asking what is magic about the open vs. closing lines. Here's another question: Why not take these games any time they move to 2 pts, instead of only taking them if they close at 2 points? Isn't that definition of an "over-reaction" - it might come back, so take it while its hot. Would like to hear folks opinion on that.

Was wondering if you stuck with it and what results you've been having.

[katstale]

Look at some of you guys making money!!! It won't be long til there are at least a handful of winners at this place.

I wish I could speak to baseball. I have never modified it for that purpose. I am sure there must be a way. Maybe some creative types on here who want to earn year round will figure it out?

[Munson15]

Look at some of you guys making money!!! It won't be long til there are at least a handful of winners at this place.

I wish I could speak to baseball. I have never modified it for that purpose. I am sure there must be a way. Maybe some creative types on here who want to earn year round will figure it out?

How about using the identical 'source' and fading all line moves of 10 cents or more? I'd have to track that before I would have the courage to play it.

[katstale]

Tracking is the key. Many years ago I had over 500 games tracked against ESB before I started hitting it with real cash.

[Munson15]

I like the cautious approach, and there's always time to implement something once you have proven it works, but what is ESB?

[katstale]

lolol Shows how far back I go in this I guess?! English Sports Betting

Now defunct, but one of the original offshore books.

[xyz]

I have been thinking about this strategy for quite some time since Katstale started this thread. In trying to justify why it may work, I came up with the following:

If there were no intrinsic reasons for the line movement up or down 2+ points and the opening line on the newspaper is perfect (meaning we expect 50% of the time it falls one way, and 50% of the time the other), then we would expect to see winning percentage greater than 54%.

The lines may not be perfect, and there may be valid reasons for the line movement. In that case, this strategy would work if the movement exceeds the value warranted by the reasons. 2 points may or may not be considered over correction given the specific reasons. By Katstale's experience and Munson15's results so far, 2 seems to work well.

Of course, the only thing that matters is the actual result. I started to track this strategy using the Latest Line with small amount of money. When there are enough games in the experiment, I will post the update here.

[Munson15]

GL, xyz!

[xyz]

11-5 using Latest Line since 3/29/2008. Below is a link to the log of the games that I ended up playing using this method:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pJfwFAPEySC-k2UQ95w0dCA

I played both sides and totals. The bets were placed on Matchbook. I tried to get better than even odds after commissions whenever I can. So sometimes the point movement fits the model, but it didn't hit my price, then there was no play. It is whole another study to see the effects of this modification. One column to note is the "in range" column in the spreadsheet. This column only applies to wins. A "yes" in the column would mean taking the same side with the original Latest Line odds would have resulted in a loss instead of a win. So in those cases, the point movement actually altered the outcome.

The experiment will continue for many more games before I alter my unit size. Munson15, how many do you plan to play before you feel comfortable to increase your unit size? katstale, how many games do you have under your belt using this method? More than 5000? Thanks for your help.