Outside The Box

[HedgeHog]

A 3-point advantage versus an accurate line is huge, improving your odds to 58 or 59%. Look at the money line of any 3-point Fav and you usually get -155 fav/+135 dog. The midpoint of -145 is probably close to reality and this equates to a 59% win average.

[Munson15]

A 3-point advantage versus an accurate line is huge, improving your odds to 58 or 59%. Look at the money line of any 3-point Fav and you usually get -155 fav/+135 dog. The midpoint of -145 is probably close to reality and this equates to a 59% win average.

I like those numbers, HH. I think what Kat was saying makes a lot of sense. The opening lines are not just thrown around for laughs, they are set by professionals. A 3-point move or even a 2-point move off that opener seems to provide an opportunity on the other side.

Only problem I see is that 3-point moves would be pretty rare, I see 2-point moves every day. So if we can safely say that 3 points is worth 145 on average, 2 points would be around 125, I'd guess. Still a decent edge. Thanks for the info.

[metaldome]

Thanks for sharing, it sounds like a cool idea and I will be watching it for a while, but I am wondering how this would differ for basketball and football being that a point does not have the same value, is it more profitable to go with two or three points, and how would this work for money line sports like hockey and baseball?

[donjuan]

A 3-point advantage versus an accurate line is huge, improving your odds to 58 or 59%. Look at the money line of any 3-point Fav and you usually get -155 fav/+135 dog. The midpoint of -145 is probably close to reality and this equates to a 59% win average.

MLs aren't linear. Fair value on an efficient ML of -155/135 is ±142.8.

[chemist]

MLs aren't linear. Fair value on an efficient ML of -155/135 is ±142.8.

The favorite-longshot bias should also be considered, though these odds are close enough to evens that it probably doesn't make much difference. Failure to account for the FL bias has probably been the root of the failure of some paper attempts at testing the profitability of arithmetic value betting.Typically the outsiders are where most of the vig is.

[HedgeHog]

MLs aren't linear. Fair value on an efficient ML of -155/135 is ±142.8.

If 142.8 is correct, and I don't doubt it, then this corresponds to a 58.8% win average (in the 58-59% range I estimated). I think the bigger question is how accurate a Monday football line is on Saturday or Sunday.

[pico]

Far as i can go on this (and everything can be found on the internet) is the line in the morning at the Chicago Tribune will work for you.

http://chicagosports.sportsdirectinc.com/odds/nba.aspx

this line consistent with the paper opening lines?

[Munson15]

http://chicagosports.sportsdirectinc.com/odds/nba.aspx

this line consistent with the paper opening lines?

I saw that, it looks like a quote of offshore lines. I think Americasline.com would be the ticket.

[HedgeHog]

Opening lines should be similar to the Monday newspaper line. This line change theory should be relatively easy to check for someone with time. I don't, but I want
to know the results for 2, 2.5 and 3 or more point changes.

[Munson15]

Opening lines should be similar to the Monday newspaper line. This line change theory should be relatively easy to check for someone with time. I don't, but I want know the results for 2, 2.5 and 3 or more point changes.

Besides Kat's records, I show 3-0 this week with Xavier on Monday, the Spurs and Baylor last night winning off 2 or more point moves. Due for some losses I would suspect, to balance out the ledger a little.

[HedgeHog]

Besides Kat's records, I show 3-0 this week with Xavier on Monday, the Spurs and Baylor last night winning off 2 or more point moves. Due for some losses I would suspect, to balance out the ledger a little.

What records--it's all theory. Wow 3 plays and you're on board. I won't bet until I have solid info, and the research is easy--but no one has done it. Until then, I'll wait. I got a bridge to sell you--Kat says it's a good deal! What's your price?

[katstale]

Hog is right! Gather that evidence. Get 1000 games. It won't take that long.

[xyz]

Besides Kat's records, I show 3-0 this week with Xavier on Monday, the Spurs and Baylor last night winning off 2 or more point moves. Due for some losses I would suspect, to balance out the ledger a little.

I have a question about the Spurs game yesterday. The line started off at Spurs -11.5, and the lowest it went was Spurs -10.5. Where did you find the 2 or more point move in that game? Thanks.

[20Four7]

It would seem to depend on where you get your starting line. Yesterday "America'sline.com" showed the bulls/nets game opening at +1 while SBRlines showed it opening at +2. The game went to Nets +3.

[Munson15]

I have a question about the Spurs game yesterday. The line started off at Spurs -11.5, and the lowest it went was Spurs -10.5. Where did you find the 2 or more point move in that game? Thanks.

I tried to follow the specifics Kat put out. That would mean literally picking up a morning paper with America's Line and for the game in question, the line was Spurs -13.5 on Tuesday morning. Hope that helps.

[Munson15]

It would seem to depend on where you get your starting line. Yesterday "America'sline.com" showed the bulls/nets game opening at +1 while SBRlines showed it opening at +2. The game went to Nets +3.

I agree with you. I only know that Kat suggested the morning paper, and that's what I've used this week. My paper showed NL on Nets/Bulls, so I ignored that one, which could have been a win. I did notice the website has some different figures.

[Munson15]

What records--it's all theory. Wow 3 plays and you're on board. I won't bet until I have solid info, and the research is easy--but no one has done it. Until then, I'll wait. I got a bridge to sell you--Kat says it's a good deal! What's your price?

First you say you want someone to track it, then you bash me for posting the record. I don't have time to backtest it, either, but in this instance I feel that I'm providing a service by listing information. No need to mock someone testing a theory, IMO.

[Munson15]

Had 3-2 last night, but I noticed that many games are subjective. For instance, Tennessee opened at 18-1/2, dropped to 16-1/2 at one point late in the afternoon, and rather than a play, I waited to see if it dropped anymore. Instead, it jumped to -18 and became a no-play.

Winners were Charleston +3, Cal Poly SLO -1-1/2, and the Warriors +3-1/2. Losers were the Hawks +7 and Suns -2-1/2. I also recorded a push on Central Michigan -5.

[durito]

I'd ignore a local paper, or LVSC (you can't bet these lines, so I wouldn't put any faith in them), and check what the line actually opened at. They'll open first usually at Cris, sometimes at Greek, and occasionally at Pinnacle

Nevertheless, I think you guys are on the wrong track.

[Munson15]

I'd ignore a local paper, or LVSC (you can't bet these lines, so I wouldn't put any faith in them), and check what the line actually opened at. They'll open first usually at Cris, sometimes at Greek, and occasionally at Pinnacle

Nevertheless, I think you guys are on the wrong track.

Are you saying the whole theory is no good, or just that we're tracking it incorrectly?

[durito]

I'm saying the theory is no good.

But, you can prove me wrong. SBR has opening and closing lines archived for the last 1+ years.

[Munson15]

I'm saying the theory is no good.

But, you can prove me wrong. SBR has opening and closing lines archived for the last 1+ years.

Fair enough, but if you don't mind, I'll track it using the exact method Kat suggested.

[HedgeHog]

Fair enough, but if you don't mind, I'll track it using the exact method Kat suggested.

All I meant was that I wouldn't jump into this system full force until I had last year's results in hand, This would require archiving Chicago Tribunes from the past. I'm glad you've had early success with it.

[20Four7]

I'm saying the theory is no good.

But, you can prove me wrong. SBR has opening and closing lines archived for the last 1+ years.

I am inclined to agree with you Durito, if I'm going to bet on a play it will be similar to last night. Line opened at 114 (o/u) and went to 117.5 before game time. I did find one book at 114.5 and hit the over. The game did finish at 117 so I guess if you hit the under 117.5 you also cashed. I'd rather look at pinny's current line and some other books "off" line if I'm going to do no handicapping.

Also in Canada the most widely quoted lines in the newspaper is the Roxy line from LVSC.

[JoeVig]

Fellas,
I've been following this discussion for a while, and thought I would give a try. First, I looked around and found this place for lines - seems like a newspaper kind of place:

http://www.tmsfeatures.com/tmsfeatures/subcategory.jsp?catid=1039

Munson, I think I am going try to play these games whenever they move to 2 pts. I took that Tennessee game when it moved to 2 and I'm glad I did.

Some people here were asking what is magic about the open vs. closing lines. Here's another question: Why not take these games any time they move to 2 pts, instead of only taking them if they close at 2 points? Isn't that definition of an "over-reaction" - it might come back, so take it while its hot. Would like to hear folks opinion on that.

[pico]

Fair enough, but if you don't mind, I'll track it using the exact method Kat suggested.

i'll be surprised if you get over 50% using her method. past performance cannot guarantee future performance. backfitting works does not mean you have a good strategy. if you want to "prove" it using historical data, then you're defintely wasting your time. you're better off just start tracking all the current lines that fits her theory, and see if you can turn a profit. maybe you'll get lucky now and hit the lucky streak using her method.

[Munson15]

All I meant was that I wouldn't jump into this system full force until I had last year's results in hand, This would require archiving Chicago Tribunes from the past. I'm glad you've had early success with it.

I agree, thanks.

[Munson15]

i'll be surprised if you get over 50% using her method. past performance cannot guarantee future performance. backfitting works does not mean you have a good strategy. if you want to "prove" it using historical data, then you're defintely wasting your time. you're better off just start tracking all the current lines that fits her theory, and see if you can turn a profit. maybe you'll get lucky now and hit the lucky streak using her method.

I'm glad you said that, because I don't have time to backtest it anyway!

[Munson15]

Fellas,
I've been following this discussion for a while, and thought I would give a try. First, I looked around and found this place for lines - seems like a newspaper kind of place:

http://www.tmsfeatures.com/tmsfeatures/subcategory.jsp?catid=1039

Munson, I think I am going try to play these games whenever they move to 2 pts. I took that Tennessee game when it moved to 2 and I'm glad I did.

Some people here were asking what is magic about the open vs. closing lines. Here's another question: Why not take these games any time they move to 2 pts, instead of only taking them if they close at 2 points? Isn't that definition of an "over-reaction" - it might come back, so take it while its hot. Would like to hear folks opinion on that.

Only reason I can think of is that I might do even better by waiting for the steam to add another 1/2 point or so. But I see nothing wrong with locking in a 2-point move, which obviously would have worked in the Tennessee game. Would like to hear Kat's take on that question.

[Munson15]

I am inclined to agree with you Durito, if I'm going to bet on a play it will be similar to last night. Line opened at 114 (o/u) and went to 117.5 before game time. I did find one book at 114.5 and hit the over. The game did finish at 117 so I guess if you hit the under 117.5 you also cashed. I'd rather look at pinny's current line and some other books "off" line if I'm going to do no handicapping.

Also in Canada the most widely quoted lines in the newspaper is the Roxy line from LVSC.

Funny you mentioned that Detroit/Wright St. total. I played it under 117.5 at 5dimes for 2 units, and over 114.5 at SIA for 2 units, then added a unit to the over because it was a 'rogue' or 'off' line.

[durito]

Someone please show me where I can bet into these newspaper or LVSC lines.

Obviously, you can't. Thus I don't see how line moves based on those lines are relevant at all.

Nevertheless, as others have pointed out, closing lines are more efficient than opening lines. There's a reason sportsbooks move lines.

[20Four7]

I just played the over from SIA. I didn't bother last night to try and middle the game (but that was due to the fact I promised someone to take them out for dinner). SIA consistantly has "off" lines to take advantage of. There's a reason in the last 2 weeks I've been able to go 34 -7 there including hitting some large dogs on the ML.

[Munson15]

Someone please show me where I can bet into these newspaper or LVSC lines.

Obviously, you can't. Thus I don't see how line moves based on those lines are relevant at all.

Nevertheless, as others have pointed out, closing lines are more efficient than opening lines. There's a reason sportsbooks move lines.

Just my .02, but since we're discussing it, is that the opener is set by LVSC, which is not in the business of dealing bad lines to their clients. If it stands to reason that the opener is a good number, you are getting free points on whatever move occurs.

Also, many will say not to play a game once it steams to a certain point, all the value is gone, and maybe the value sits on the other side once the movement settles down. Not trying to be Vegas Vic here, just making an observation. Feel free to take apart anything I just said.

[Munson15]

I just played the over from SIA. I didn't bother last night to try and middle the game (but that was due to the fact I promised someone to take them out for dinner). SIA consistantly has "off" lines to take advantage of. There's a reason in the last 2 weeks I've been able to go 34 -7 there including hitting some large dogs on the ML.

They will cut your limits, then eventually close your account is you beat them too badly. You probably already know that, but it happened to me about 2 years ago, thought I'd give you a headsup.

[pico]

Someone please show me where I can bet into these newspaper or LVSC lines.

Obviously, you can't. Thus I don't see how line moves based on those lines are relevant at all.

Nevertheless, as others have pointed out, closing lines are more efficient than opening lines. There's a reason sportsbooks move lines.

it seems to me kat's method is basically "anti-steam". over the course of the year, steam system will do good certain weeks, and anti-steam system will also do good for the remaining part of the year.

now, i have a question for you. how do you figure out sharp plays?