SPECIAL LINE ALERT: Algeria +1 +300 vs England, an SBR_John Special

[RichardMoss]

Algeria +1 +300 vs England.
Max bet 600 points.
Only side offered: Algeria +1 +300

must hit gold coin icon to post points and must make post in this thread by tipoff today at 2:30PM ET

If you do not post points in this thread and make a post by tipoff (2:30 pmET), you will not have action.

[lakerboy]

Why would anyone take this? Algeria is +102 at +1.5 at pinny.

[pico]

yeah, anywhere else it is +1.5. SBR john thinks no one plays soccer here.

[pico]

i would take england ml here. they need to kill algeria after the draw against usa

[WillC]

England must win this game. I don't see anyone taking this unless +1.5 is offered.

[yisman]

Betfair has Algeria +1 at +213, so this is beating the market somewhat.

[JOHON8]

4 years of waiting and this is a must win for England... save your points people Algeria is giving up after 2-0.

[durito]

Why would anyone take this? Algeria is +102 at +1.5 at pinny.

+1 is +211/-236 at pinny ~ 25.6% edge.

[durito]

12 all i got

[flyingillini]

England will win the game, not sure by how many though. Possible push with this line.

[LostBankroll]

LMAO nice one SBR!

[yisman]

yeah the trouble here is that the most likely scenarios are England by 1 (push, you get raked) and England by 2 (loss).

So I lose (at least the rake) unless Algeria draws or wins.

I'll mull it over.

[Naz18]

England better cover

[andywend]

Why would anyone take this? Algeria is +102 at +1.5 at pinny.

yeah, anywhere else it is +1.5. SBR john thinks no one plays soccer here.

Lakerboy/Pico, do either of you have any clue as to what +300 means?

While I'm certainly no fan of Durito, he appears to be one of the few around here that has anything going on upstairs.

18 SBR points to win 54 on Algeria +1 for me.

[sweethook]

Lakerboy/Pico, do either of you have any clue as to what +300 means?

While I'm certainly no fan of Durito, he appears to be one of the few around here that has anything going on upstairs.

18 SBR points to win 54 on Algeria +1 for me.

this guy said its good so il take a shot - 14 - to win 42 , thanks GL.

[andywend]

sweethook, the correct line on Algeria +1 goal is +212.

If you bet $100 for example, you should win $212 but the OP is offering you $300.

At the end of the day, the only thing that matters when it comes to gambling is profit and losses.

I would much rather win 20% of the time and make $100,000 for the year then win 80% of the time and make $50,000.

Good luck with our bets.

[lukahh]

i will add my 21 pts here - highest of all so far.
bring it on!

[Czu81]

Nice offer but England on steamroller mode know. 3-0 at least IMO.

[lukahh]

i'd say the reason for this offer is SBR guys believe market is way off here, with england being undervalued and will surely win.

england will probably win (2.2 $ per 1), but algeria is around place 30 @ fifa ranking, which means they are good team. they showed it against slovenia as well. surprise is possible, england are not all-mighty.

[Sunde91]

Worst special in the history of time

[lockwoot]

Do ppl know the one problem was that gerrard AND lampard played in defensive roles last match?
Gerrard has been put in a more attacking role so more support for rooney and alot of long range cannonballs of gerrard so going for algeria , quite doubtfull

[pico]

don't forget to add in the rake into the line. most likely you're going to push or lose. so this is a lose-lose situation. no way england is to draw or lose to algeria.

[andywend]

Worst special in the history of time

Offering +300 on a +210 proposition, if you don't like it, then don't bet it.

With that being said, offering an alternative line even with high odds won't get much action as most people aren't sophisticated enough to see the value being offered.

[WillC]

There will be riots in England if they draw this match. The talent differential between these sides is huge it ain't funny.
Alot will consider a 1.5 line but asking for Algeria to get a draw against the desperate English is going to be a stretch. I can see a push happening but even then nobody likes to lose rake.

GL though. anything can happen I guess

[andywend]

England is only a -350 favorite here. FAR FROM A LOCK.

[pico]

Offering +300 on a +210 proposition, if you don't like it, then don't bet it.

With that being said, offering an alternative line even with high odds won't get much action as most people aren't sophisticated enough to see the value being offered.

if i offer you a line for North Korea to win the world cup that is better than the market. would you bet it?

[Sunde91]

Offering +300 on a +210 proposition, if you don't like it, then don't bet it.

With that being said, offering an alternative line even with high odds won't get much action as most people aren't sophisticated enough to see the value being offered.

Does Algeria have a 25% chance (+300) to draw or win? Not a chance in hell. Do they have a chance to even push? Not overly likely. I see a 33% chance to push, and that's just insurance.

Value doesn't = +100 better than the market price. If the chanes of a bet hitting are higher than the line offered, than the bet has value.

No value.

[Naz18]

Worst special in the history of time

Worst was in this years playoffs dallas/san antonio where no one took any action

[Sunde91]

England is only a -350 favorite here. FAR FROM A LOCK.

-500 in some shops, -377 is basically the best you will find.

[aceking]

i would take Algeria +2 !

SBR John dont be a scrooge .

[andywend]

if i offer you a line for North Korea to win the world cup that is better than the market. would you bet it?

Pico, the answer to your question is a RESOUNDING YES as long as the price you're offering is considerably better than the market.

Does Algeria have a 25% chance (+300) to draw or win?

Sunde91, Algeria has approximately a 21% chance to win the game and a 15% chance to draw (odds courtesy of Matchbook and BetFair). Therefore, the answer to your question is another RESOUNDING YES.

Getting +300 on a 36% chance occurrence is my kind of wager. Unfortunately, the +300 is only being offered for SBR points as opposed to real money.

If you still believe that Algeria +1 goal offers no value @ +300, then you should seriously consider refraining from gambling.

[andywend]

-500 in some shops, -377 is basically the best you will find.

Even Greek is offering -400 and they are a "full vig" sportsbook.

Jun 18 1:30 pm Graded after regulation time (90 minutes) + injury time England-400-1½ -1152½ +100 Algeria+1000 +102 -115 - Draw+465

[fuglyboy86hi]

not much attractive , atleast offer +1.5 at better rate !

[andywend]

offering Algeria +1 (+300) is the same as offering Algeria +1.5 @ +135.

However, I do admit that if the special line was Algeria +1.5 @ +135, there would be many more takers as most bettors are more concerned with cashing more often than winning.

[pico]

[QUOTE=andywend;5119803]Pico, the answer to your question is a RESOUNDING YES as long as the price you're offering is considerably better than the market.Sunde91, Algeria has approximately a 21% chance to win the game and a 15% chance to draw (odds courtesy of Matchbook and BetFair). Therefore, the answer to your question is another RESOUNDING YES.


in your math world, this makes perfect sense, but in real world. i would book your action and if north korea actually end up winning, i would say the line is invalid or just close shop

look at what happened to AIG, pretty much they booked a lot of plus money action and end up need a bailout.