SPECIAL LINE ALERT: Algeria +1 +300 vs England, an SBR_John Special

[Cubs4591]

yea i agree

[mihaita666]

Teams have started to forget about playing conservative : look at argentina, uruguay, even mexico last night. No way England wins by less than 1

[Sunde91]

.Sunde91, Algeria has approximately a 21% chance to win the game and a 15% chance to draw (odds courtesy of Matchbook and BetFair). Therefore, the answer to your question is another RESOUNDING YES.

Getting +300 on a 36% chance occurrence is my kind of wager. Unfortunately, the +300 is only being offered for SBR points as opposed to real money.

If you still believe that Algeria +1 goal offers no value @ +300, then you should seriously consider refraining from gambling.

"21% chance to win", lulz, +1400 = 6%...so you have a 21% chance to win the bet, not 36.

England -1.5 is -114 (5 Dimes best possible line virtually) is a 53% chance.

Factor in the insurance of a push however you want, the bet has a 53% chance of losing SU with only a 21% chance to win.

Theoretically, any better line than the market line has "value". Practically, it varies and is highly subjective.

You see "better value" in a +10050 over a +10000; I see negligible bullshit.

The line is just an imperfect projection by oddsmakers. It's always going to come down to what the bettor sees.

[andywend]

Sunde,
I do admit a slight error in my previous calculation and you are correct that the bet has a 53% chance of losing and only a 21% chance to win.

The correct way to deal with the remaining 26% chance of a push is to completely disregard that scenario.

This bet will result in a win 21 times out of every 74 hypothetical games for a 28.4% win rate.

Therefore, the correct line on the Algeria +1 wager is +252 and you're getting +300.

If I could make this wager with real money, I would bet as much as I could and then come back and bet England -1/2 goal @ -375.

Using $100 as a base win figure, you bet $375 to win $100 on England -1/2 goal and come back with $119 to win $357 on Algeria +1 goal. You wind up risking either $18 or $19 to win $100 (5 1/2-1 odds) on England winning by exactly 1 goal.

[Smogs]

SBR know england will at the very least win the game

[TeamTT]

Looks like a trap to me...

[Phillth]

does every know that algerias captain was benched and booed off the field. algerian chemisty not good right now. they will try to clog up the midfield but england will break thorugh and find a goal. the match will open up and they will find another.

[SRBI]

Dont take this offer guys you will all get burned, mark my words.

[Fishhead]

Sunde,
I do admit a slight error in my previous calculation and you are correct that the bet has a 53% chance of losing and only a 21% chance to win.

The correct way to deal with the remaining 26% chance of a push is to completely disregard that scenario.

This bet will result in a win 21 times out of every 74 hypothetical games for a 28.4% win rate.

Therefore, the correct line on the Algeria +1 wager is +252 and you're getting +300.

If I could make this wager with real money, I would bet as much as I could and then come back and bet England -1/2 goal @ -375.

Using $100 as a base win figure, you bet $375 to win $100 on England -1/2 goal and come back with $119 to win $357 on Algeria +1 goal. You wind up risking either $18 or $19 to win $100 (5 1/2-1 odds) on England winning by exactly 1 goal.

SBR PTs is real money

[Fishhead]

Worst special in the history of time

[Fishhead]

ALGERIA +1 +300

200 to win 600

As always, thanks for the offer.

[SRBI]

Dont take this offer guys you will all get burned, mark my words.

^ Take heed. This guy just had to post up right after I said that. Clearly an SBR employee trying to sway your mind.

[mathdotcom]

25 to win 75

mathy

[LostBankroll]

Ill give you tards Algeria +1.5 at EVEN money. First person to drop the points on THIS POST gets the action. 25 points MAX. 1 person only.

[lukahh]

Ill give you tards Algeria +1.5 at EVEN money. First person to drop the points on THIS POST gets the action. 25 points MAX. 1 person only.

hmm. 2.1 @ pinny.

might just as well offer england for 1.1

[legendmatt34]

England

England wins 2-0 after Usa wins 2-0

[Sawyer]

England wins 2-0 or 3-0.

[pavyracer]

Ill give you tards Algeria +1.5 at EVEN money. First person to drop the points on THIS POST gets the action. 25 points MAX. 1 person only.

+1.5 Algeria is +105 at the points book. If they offered a +1.5 +125 as special line more people will take it.

[LostBankroll]

OKAY. Im offerin Algeria +1.5 +125

You take Algeria +1.5 +125.

I need just 1 person for the action.

Max 30 points.

[yisman]

offering Algeria +1 (+300) is the same as offering Algeria +1.5 @ +135.

However, I do admit that if the special line was Algeria +1.5 @ +135, there would be many more takers as most bettors are more concerned with cashing more often than winning.

it would remove the chances of a push, which is important here.

[geebert74]

Thanks for the line!

[pavyracer]

it would remove the chances of a push, which is important here.

If you offer +1 lines it makes it look like you are after the rake from a business point of view.

[yisman]

Yep.

I would bet +1.5 if it beat the market, but at +1, I'm not sure, even at +300.

Like I was saying in my post on the first page, it means you're taking a loss unless Algeria wins or draws.

[terpkeg]

Algeria +1 500/1500

[Fishhead]

If you offer +1 lines it makes it look like you are after the rake from a business point of view.

[Cookie Monster]

The line is arbable with the correct combination on England ML and England +1.5. I did the math, and even if you could bet points at matchbook lines, the guaranteed profit would be barely 20 points. Not worth the effort.

I do not have pinny account, it mat be the better chance if they offer -236. But in that case the winning is not guaranteed, a push costs 6 rake points.

[intensomayor]

Lets go England!!

[Cookie Monster]

If someone is interested in the math, the possible results for the max bet are:

Algeria or draw: +1794 points
England by 1: -6 points
England by 2+: -606 points.

Assuming England ML -400 and England +1.5 -125 (close to real matchbook prices and nice round numbers), a ML bet amount is x and Eng+1.5 bet amount is y. The winning (w) is:

w = 1794 - x - y
w = -6 +0.25x - y
w = -606 +0.25x + 0.8y

From there any high school kid should find the values of x, y and w.

[clarkj2]

I'll take 25 pts worth of action

[English Bloke]

This could be a Germany/Australia type of game. Republic of Ireland easily beat Algeria just prior to the WC in a friendly 3-0. My only worry is that it looks like Heskey is playing and he can't hit the backside of a cow with a banjo.

Over 2.5 goals the best bet at 1.83 (-120)

[Ryangene]

They could have put this line at +800 with the +1 and there would be no way i'd take it.

[THEGREAT30]

great deal here someone give me 5 pts so I can get in on this

[MarkDee]

With al this crazy shit year this I'll take it for 15pts

[Lion4Life]

In for 7

[Karayilan9]

England is going to wipe the floor with Algeria.