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  • stevenash
    Moderator
    • 01-17-11
    • 67380

    #36
    Originally posted by Math
    Good luck Nash, Wacha did great last night but Estevez cannot close games at this time. They knew this but ran him out there anyway. His velocity is way down, I was pissed because everyone knew how that 9th was going to turn out.

    GL

    Mr. Math
    #1 on the list from my buddies over at RotoWire.



    Closers I'm Worried About


    Carlos Estevez, Royals: The warning signs were flashing bright red with Estevez throughout spring training, as his velocity was down not just the one or two ticks you often see with veteran pitchers easing into the season but a full six or seven miles per hour. That sort of drop tends to mean a pitcher is dealing with an injury which hasn't yet been reported (or even one that hasn't yet been discovered), but even if this is merely a sudden mechanical issue and Estevez is full healthy, he isn't going to be a trustworthy closer until that velocity returns.

    Estevez's fastball velocity did creep back up to 91.3 mph in his season debut Saturday, the hardest he's thrown yet this season, but that's still far below the 96.1 mph he averaged last season. The results were disastrous as well, as he retired just one of the seven batters he faced and allowed six runs, including a game-losing grand slam to Dominic Smith. The Royals need to take Estevez out of the firing line as soon as possible if they have aspirations of making the playoffs this year, and it looks like that might be happening sooner rather than later, with manager Matt Quataro saying, "We're not averse to putting him in a lower leverage situation."

    Worry-o-meter: 5 out of 5. Maybe 6 out of 5.

    Setup man to stash: Lucas Erceg. Matt Strahm pitched the seventh inning Saturday while Erceg pitched the eighth before Estevez imploded in the ninth. With Estevez unavailable Sunday (nominally because he took a liner off his ankle Saturday), Strahm recorded the last two outs in the seventh, while John Schreiber pitched the eighth and Erceg got the save in the ninth. That pretty clearly indicates that Erceg is the next man up, and it was good to see him regain the tick of velocity that he lost last season. Erceg may have the job already, so pick him up wherever he's available if you need saves.
    Comment
    • Math
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 05-04-24
      • 510

      #37
      Looking forward to seeing Cameron tonight. If not for Estevez, we sit (3-1) right now. Im hoping he gets his arm strength back and his velocity returns but until then we dont need to see him. Thank Goodness he only cost us one win.


      Mr. Math
      Comment
      • stevenash
        Moderator
        • 01-17-11
        • 67380

        #38
        The Good
        The bottom of the lineup went 10 for 16 last night, 8 RBI, 9 Runs
        The lineup can hurt you from anywhere, 1-9
        That was Joe Ryan, KC dinged last night. He's a legit staff ace; he's not an ordinary hamburger.

        Cameron was terrific; all he needs to do is conserve pitches now so he can go deeper into the game.
        Future Hall of Famer Sal Perez can straighten that out.
        86 pitches (and he does this regularly) through five innings is too many; it taxes the bullpen, the only area that needs an upgrade.

        The Bad and the Ugly
        The only two I trust out of the bullpen are Erceg and Strham. Both Falter and Lange need to go down to AAA. They both walked the ballpark and got smacked around like a Grand Canyon rented mule. Makes you appreciate what Herrera, Greg Holland, and Wade Davis did ten years ago, the best three-headed bullpen I saw since the Cincy 'Nasty Boys'

        Who knew that we would need those seven runs in the seventh?
        If they blew that game for Cameron, I would have been very cranky.
        Comment
        • Math
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 05-04-24
          • 510

          #39
          I agree with all that. I think the best thing is for Estevez to get back to his All Star form. If this doesnt happen, we hold on to the trade deadline or hope someone emerges.


          Mr. Math
          Comment
          • stevenash
            Moderator
            • 01-17-11
            • 67380

            #40
            Short three-game slate today (The White Sox game is already rained out)
            No play today, I don't like laying -160, but on paper, Cole Ragans looks like the play, but I'll watch it with no skin in the game.

            At a glance, I'm 2-3 (-0.92*) after one full week,
            Not the start I was hoping for, but it's not disastrous.

            Best of luck, all, and thanks to all who read this thread.
            Comment
            • Math
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 05-04-24
              • 510

              #41
              Im on KC -1 (-110) today.

              Keep me informed on the Royals news. Ive got all my Futures on them this season. Biggest being Over 82.5 wins but ive got about everything you can bet,,,,,, bet on their futures. Each year I pick one team to ride. My biggest hit in a 40 year career in sportsbetting was the 2015 Royals. I had them every way you could have them, including to win the World Series at (+2700). Im hoping to run it back this season but i really need that win total, it would pay for all the others.

              Go Royals

              Mr. Math
              Comment
              • stevenash
                Moderator
                • 01-17-11
                • 67380

                #42
                Originally posted by Math
                Im on KC -1 (-110) today.

                Keep me informed on the Royals news. Ive got all my Futures on them this season. Biggest being Over 82.5 wins but ive got about everything you can bet,,,,,, bet on their futures. Each year I pick one team to ride. My biggest hit in a 40 year career in sportsbetting was the 2015 Royals. I had them every way you could have them, including to win the World Series at (+2700). Im hoping to run it back this season but i really need that win total, it would pay for all the others.

                Go Royals

                Mr. Math
                Will do.

                My biggest bet (it's posted in the other thread) is the Marlins over, and the Marlins to make the playoffs.
                Their front-line pitching is terrific, and Perez is everything as advertised.
                Comment
                • Math
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 05-04-24
                  • 510

                  #43
                  I hope you hit it but their sorry ass may sell off that staff. Sandy A might be in pinstripes this summer. They held him through his recovery to get his trade stock back up there. Well its back. Would be a shame to sale those guys off. We won on Sandy A yesterday.

                  Good luck

                  Mr. Math
                  Comment
                  • stevenash
                    Moderator
                    • 01-17-11
                    • 67380

                    #44
                    Top Guns, Big Arms, and even Bigger Lines.

                    Ten jam-packed good afternoon slate.
                    Team Line Total Pitcher
                    Dodgers -275 9.5 Emmet Sheehan
                    Nationals 235 9.5 Miles Mikolas
                    Cardinals 150 8 Michael McGreevy
                    Tigers -174 8.5 Framber Valdez
                    Marlins 150 7.5 Eury Perez
                    Yankees -170 8 Will Warren
                    Padres 106 8 Michael King
                    Red Sox -120 8.5 Sonny Gray
                    Blue Jays -200 7.5 Dylan Cease
                    White Sox 180 7.5 Sean Burke
                    Reds 150 7.5 Brady Singer
                    Rangers -170 8 MacKenzie Gore
                    Rays -104 7.5 Joe Boyle
                    Twins -110 8 Bailey Ober
                    Cubs -118 7.5 Cade Horton
                    Guardians 102 7.5 Joey Cantillo
                    Phillies -200 10 Aaron Nola
                    Rockies 170 10.5 Michael Lorenzen
                    Orioles -124 8 Kyle Bradish
                    Pirates 106 8.5 Mitch Keller



                    It's insane to lay -275 on the road.
                    Sheehan's good, but not -275 on the road, good.

                    Framber and Dylan Cease are overpriced, too.

                    Nola -200 on the road, no, but the runline might be a play, being the Phils are guaranteed a ninth-inning at-bat, and that lineup with those thundersticks should exploit Lorensen.

                    I'm curious to see what Bradish can do on the road in Pitt.

                    That SD (King) BOS (Gray) matchup is very interesting.

                    My play
                    Marlins +150 NYY

                    Perez is filthy, and the Marlins face Will Warren.
                    Warren is hittable, the Marlins' sticks should ding him for 3+, Perez should keep the Yanks bats quiet.

                    Marlins are a huge value at +150
                    That's my story, and I'm sticking to it.

                    Marlins +150 NYY
                    Comment
                    • stevenash
                      Moderator
                      • 01-17-11
                      • 67380

                      #45
                      Here's something you don't see every day.
                      The Twins' cleanup hitter, Matt Wallner, went 0-5 and struck out all five times.
                      Ouch!
                      Way to clog up the middle of the order, Matt.

                      Rays vs. Twins (Apr 3, 2026) Box Score - ESPN
                      Comment
                      • stevenash
                        Moderator
                        • 01-17-11
                        • 67380

                        #46
                        Glasnow (LA) -308 on the road.
                        YIKES
                        Laying 3:1 on the road is suicide, I don't care if it's the crappy Nationals.
                        I just don't do it, it's bankroll suicide.
                        Comment
                        • lonegambler23
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 06-22-16
                          • 10797

                          #47
                          nasher a bases legend
                          will keep an eye on this thread
                          Comment
                          • stevenash
                            Moderator
                            • 01-17-11
                            • 67380

                            #48
                            Houston @ Colorado in Denver.
                            That OVER 10.5 looks like a gift.
                            Comment
                            • pimike
                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                              • 03-23-08
                              • 37179

                              #49
                              Originally posted by stevenash
                              Houston @ Colorado in Denver.
                              That OVER 10.5 looks like a gift.
                              wind blowing in is knock these balls down early.
                              Comment
                              • pimike
                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                • 03-23-08
                                • 37179

                                #50
                                10 runs in the 5th!!!!

                                Gift!!

                                lol
                                Comment
                                • flyingillini
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 12-06-06
                                  • 41412

                                  #51
                                  I have some plays for tomorrow.

                                  Cardinals -101
                                  Royals +108
                                  Padres +135
                                  Tigers -1.5 +114
                                  Mariners -116

                                  All plays with Pinnacle
                                  המוסד‎
                                  המוסד למודיעין ולתפקידים מיוחדים‎
                                  Comment
                                  • stevenash
                                    Moderator
                                    • 01-17-11
                                    • 67380

                                    #52
                                    Originally posted by flyingillini
                                    I have some plays for tomorrow.

                                    Cardinals -101
                                    Royals +108
                                    Padres +135
                                    Tigers -1.5 +114
                                    Mariners -116

                                    All plays with Pinnacle
                                    Feel free to post up your plays here, all respectful posts. fades, thoughts, shit, anything MLB related is welcome.
                                    It's an open thread.

                                    KC +108.
                                    From your lips to God's ears.

                                    Best of luck
                                    Comment
                                    • flyingillini
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 12-06-06
                                      • 41412

                                      #53
                                      Originally posted by stevenash

                                      Feel free to post up your plays here, all respectful posts. fades, thoughts, shit, anything MLB related is welcome.
                                      It's an open thread.

                                      KC +108.
                                      From your lips to God's ears.

                                      Best of luck
                                      Great , will do !
                                      המוסד‎
                                      המוסד למודיעין ולתפקידים מיוחדים‎
                                      Comment
                                      • stevenash
                                        Moderator
                                        • 01-17-11
                                        • 67380

                                        #54
                                        Three afternoon games.

                                        I like Noah Cameron. I'm a KC fan, I've seen him often, he's an animal, an evil lefty who's when on, unhittable.
                                        Gavin Williams, though, can be difficult too.
                                        At +108, KC is the play

                                        Shane Smith got hammered last week; the O's should handle him and the Chi-Sox.
                                        Balty -149. No thanks, Balty +124 -1.5 runline, yes, please.
                                        I like betting road faves on the run line at times; the road team is guaranteed a ninth-inning at-bat.
                                        Balty -1.5 +124 is the play.

                                        I'm a sucker for a home bow wow.
                                        Arizona +140 against the Mets is a barking (See what I did there) bet.
                                        I've always liked Zac. Sure, the Dodgers lit him up last week, but who doesn't LA light up?
                                        IMO, there's value in the Snakes at +140

                                        I just locked in KC, the other two dogs are leans (for now)
                                        Comment
                                        • flyingillini
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 12-06-06
                                          • 41412

                                          #55
                                          Originally posted by stevenash
                                          Three afternoon games.

                                          I like Noah Cameron. I'm a KC fan, I've seen him often, he's an animal, an evil lefty who's when on, unhittable.
                                          Gavin Williams, though, can be difficult too.
                                          At +108, KC is the play

                                          Shane Smith got hammered last week; the O's should handle him and the Chi-Sox.
                                          Balty -149. No thanks, Balty +124 -1.5 runline, yes, please.
                                          I like betting road faves on the run line at times; the road team is guaranteed a ninth-inning at-bat.
                                          Balty -1.5 +124 is the play.

                                          I'm a sucker for a home bow wow.
                                          Arizona +140 against the Mets is a barking (See what I did there) bet.
                                          I've always liked Zac. Sure, the Dodgers lit him up last week, but who doesn't LA light up?
                                          IMO, there's value in the Snakes at +140

                                          I just locked in KC, the other two dogs are leans (for now)
                                          Good luck with your plays !
                                          המוסד‎
                                          המוסד למודיעין ולתפקידים מיוחדים‎
                                          Comment
                                          • pimike
                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                            • 03-23-08
                                            • 37179

                                            #56
                                            KC will be my play as well.

                                            i think Cubs will bounce back as well.

                                            i would not be surprised to see white Sox win at home however.
                                            Comment
                                            • flyingillini
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 12-06-06
                                              • 41412

                                              #57
                                              Originally posted by pimike
                                              KC will be my play as well.

                                              i think Cubs will bounce back as well.

                                              i would not be surprised to see white Sox win at home however.
                                              Good luck, Mike!
                                              המוסד‎
                                              המוסד למודיעין ולתפקידים מיוחדים‎
                                              Comment
                                              • stevenash
                                                Moderator
                                                • 01-17-11
                                                • 67380

                                                #58
                                                SD/PIT Tonight.
                                                Pivetta/Skeenes

                                                How many Ks in that game will there be?
                                                Like 100?
                                                Comment
                                                • stevenash
                                                  Moderator
                                                  • 01-17-11
                                                  • 67380

                                                  #59
                                                  I'm on SD (King) pick vs. Pitt
                                                  Early afternoon game.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • stevenash
                                                    Moderator
                                                    • 01-17-11
                                                    • 67380

                                                    #60
                                                    After ten games (2 start pitchers), five pitchers have a zero ERA
                                                    Here's the top 25 starting pitchers after 10 games, minimum two starts.


                                                    Name Tm G ERA H HR BB SO AVG OBP
                                                    Kevin Gausman TOR 2 0.75 3 1 0 21 0.075 0.075
                                                    Cam Schlittler NYY 2 0 3 0 0 15 0.078947 0.078947368
                                                    Bryan Woo SEA 2 1.38461538 5 0 2 15 0.116279 0.173913043
                                                    Drew Rasmussen TBR 2 1.8 6 2 1 10 0.153846 0.175
                                                    Sandy Alcantara MIA 2 0 7 0 2 12 0.132075 0.178571428
                                                    Nick Martinez TBR 2 2.25 7 2 1 7 0.162791 0.181818181
                                                    Jose Soriano LAA 3 0.45 7 1 6 21 0.109375 0.185714285
                                                    Emerson Hancock SEA 2 0.71052632 6 1 1 14 0.146341 0.186046511
                                                    Tarik Skubal DET 2 0.69230769 9 1 0 9 0.191489 0.191489361
                                                    Edward Cabrera CHC 2 0 2 0 6 9 0.058824 0.2
                                                    Joe Boyle TBR 2 3.17647059 7 0 3 13 0.166667 0.217391304
                                                    Michael McGreevy STL 2 2.53125 7 1 2 9 0.179487 0.219512195
                                                    Tomoyuki Sugano COL 2 1.6875 6 2 3 9 0.157895 0.219512195
                                                    Max Fried NYY 3 1.35 10 0 5 14 0.147059 0.226666666
                                                    Rhett Lowder CIN 2 1.63636364 6 1 4 9 0.153846 0.232558139
                                                    Chase Burns CIN 2 0.81818182 6 1 4 16 0.153846 0.232558139
                                                    Tyler Glasnow LAD 2 3 8 0 3 15 0.186047 0.234042553
                                                    Bryce Elder ATL 2 0 9 0 2 13 0.2 0.234042553
                                                    Reynaldo Lopez ATL 2 1.63636364 7 2 3 6 0.179487 0.238095238
                                                    Eduardo Rodriguez ARI 2 0 8 0 3 8 0.186047 0.239130434
                                                    Michael Wacha KCR 2 0.69230769 6 1 4 10 0.146341 0.239130434
                                                    Nolan McLean NYM 2 2.61290323 5 1 4 12 0.138889 0.243902439
                                                    Seth Lugo KCR 2 1.58823529 9 0 2 10 0.209302 0.244444444
                                                    Cristopher Sanchez PHI 2 0.79411765 7 0 4 17 0.170732 0.244444444
                                                    Clay Holmes NYM 2 1.42105263 7 1 5 9 0.159091 0.244897959
                                                    Comment
                                                    • stevenash
                                                      Moderator
                                                      • 01-17-11
                                                      • 67380

                                                      #61
                                                      The Dodgers are 58 points (BAvg) better than league average, that's insane.
                                                      Six teams are hitting below .210, and three are at .200 or below.
                                                      Starting pitchers (see above) clearly have the advantage over the hitters.
                                                      That trend will reverse in a few weeks, it usually does, when the weather heats up, so do the sticks.

                                                      Click image for larger version

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                                                      Comment
                                                      • flyingillini
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 12-06-06
                                                        • 41412

                                                        #62
                                                        Some more plays

                                                        Royals -130
                                                        Brewers +123
                                                        Cardinals -118

                                                        Good luck to everyone!
                                                        המוסד‎
                                                        המוסד למודיעין ולתפקידים מיוחדים‎
                                                        Comment
                                                        • flyingillini
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 12-06-06
                                                          • 41412

                                                          #63
                                                          Originally posted by stevenash
                                                          The Dodgers are 58 points (BAvg) better than league average, that's insane.
                                                          Six teams are hitting below .210, and three are at .200 or below.
                                                          Starting pitchers (see above) clearly have the advantage over the hitters.
                                                          That trend will reverse in a few weeks, it usually does, when the weather heats up, so do the sticks.

                                                          Click image for larger version

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                                                          Good stuff!
                                                          המוסד‎
                                                          המוסד למודיעין ולתפקידים מיוחדים‎
                                                          Comment
                                                          • BOA12
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 02-19-12
                                                            • 20837

                                                            #64
                                                            Originally posted by stevenash
                                                            I'm on SD (King) pick vs. Pitt
                                                            Early afternoon game.
                                                            A duel in the sun.

                                                            I could take a 1 run pit loss for moral purpose's in this thread. ( posted 0-0 after 6 ).
                                                            Comment
                                                            • stevenash
                                                              Moderator
                                                              • 01-17-11
                                                              • 67380

                                                              #65
                                                              Cole Ragans was forced to leave in the first inning with a thumb injury.
                                                              Poor guy is snake-bit.

                                                              Speaking of Snakes (see what I did there)
                                                              The Diamondbacks are sticking it to Pedersen and the Mets.
                                                              Corbin Carroll is a beast, 3-4 this game, IMO the most underrated player in the game.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • BOA12
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 02-19-12
                                                                • 20837

                                                                #66
                                                                Looking at who's online reminds me of the old line "who's on first " , looks like it's you nash.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • stevenash
                                                                  Moderator
                                                                  • 01-17-11
                                                                  • 67380

                                                                  #67
                                                                  lol

                                                                  Click image for larger version

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                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • BOA12
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 02-19-12
                                                                    • 20837

                                                                    #68
                                                                    Originally posted by stevenash
                                                                    lol

                                                                    Click image for larger version

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                                                                    One 4 all us Boys of Summer.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • stevenash
                                                                      Moderator
                                                                      • 01-17-11
                                                                      • 67380

                                                                      #69
                                                                      a) Lopez is an idiot for that 'bring it' gesture
                                                                      b) If Soler had any boxing skills, Lopez would be knocked silly, double concussed.
                                                                      c) Looks like Walt Weiss has trouble putting down the cheeseburgers.


                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • stevenash
                                                                        Moderator
                                                                        • 01-17-11
                                                                        • 67380

                                                                        #70
                                                                        Here's something you don't see every day.
                                                                        The Yankees got shut out 1-0 on one hit.

                                                                        Springs spinning a gem.
                                                                        Athletics 1-0 Yankees (Apr 9, 2026) Game Recap - ESPN
                                                                        Comment
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