NEW Streak for the Cash

[losturmarbles]

mickelson was -140/127 i think. so that makes him about 57% at pk, add about 10% more with the tie. 67% not bad

[yisman]

what convinced me was the line move. I was watching Pinnacle and Phil was less than that (like -127?), but then moved to where you said.

I was torn on it before the move, but I like to see late line movement in my favor.

[yisman]

Phil taking no prisoners.

[losturmarbles]

as mex already mentioned cards are big favs tonight. -235/219 = 69.1%

i don't see an edge betting either side, but at pk i might have to abort on wnba and take the cards. sparks might blow it tonight anyway.

[yisman]

should've linked this earlier, but I've been watching a stream

[losturmarbles]

lol who watches golf? i'll watch golf when i get old and senile.

i checked earlier and saw mick was -1 and other dude was +1 after 3 or on 3.

[losturmarbles]

ah nice, -4 and +1 thru 7

sm should just go ahead and grade this

[yisman]

-5 and +1 now. I feel cheated only getting one correct out of this. :P

lol who watches golf? i'll watch golf when i get old and senile.
.

It's boring as hell but I watch anything if I have a W5 or more on it (if I can watch it, that is).

I don't like the WNBA either but I watched most of last night's game that was on SftC.

I don't consider golf or racing to be real sports, so I won't watch them unless I have something riding on it.

[losturmarbles]

i've got toronto and seattle as plays tonight. i like a lot of tonight's picks, but that usually means they are going to lose. i'm not betting cards but i'll ride them for sftc. i lied earlier, i double checked and i do have the cards having a small edge, but i don't usually like betting big favs unless i parlay it with another big fav. plus the market hasn't really moved toward my fair value, maybe about 1% the other way.

[Cabo]

My picks haven't been so good of late.

Yis and Mex - Keep the streaks going!!!

[losturmarbles]

wnba 3-teamer tonight

liberty +110, shock +260, sparks +145

+1752

[lordswing]

well, at least everybody's still has a chance to win it for the month. i blame it on all these soccer picks, :P

[MexicanStallion]

Yisman is technically the leader with W7 (.634)

Myself, infamousbacardi, and losturmarbles in good contention.

[losturmarbles]

mickelson was -140/127 i think. so that makes him about 57% at pk, add about 10% more with the tie. 67% not bad

i was thinking about this later and realized my math error.

it's only 57% of the non-tie probability. so .57*.90 = .513 , 51.3% + 10% = 61.3%

67% was probably closer to fair value though.

[stevek173]

Hey guys been awhile.

Streak of 4 here, Camaroon win or draw for 5.

[losturmarbles]

i'm on camaroon w/d also, going for 7. but denmark just went up 2-1. we've got about 30 min left

[stevek173]

Yeah not looking so good

[losturmarbles]

i had the tigers and braves as plays tonight, went with braves since that game might end faster. i'll pick hernandez no win if i get the chance.

[yisman]

only one I would've considered today was Cameroon

phil over 35.5 seems popular but I didn't have time to research before it locked

[yisman]

more likely than not that King Felix gets a win, but not worth it right now.

[losturmarbles]

well fuk, my wnba model was way off night before last and luckily went 1-2 on sides with sparks covering by a half point. but tonight it had: fever favored by 3.7, they win by 3. mystics favored by 4.6, they win by 4. lynx favored by 13.2, they win by 14. all projected within a point. unreal.

i luckily missed that hernandez prop, so i'll press my luck and go with new zealand +1.5. i'll stick with soccer and take ivory coast +1.5. i see that yis already has his pick locked, so i would guess it's ivory coast. i'll then take phoenix mercury to put a beatdown on the connecticut sun.

[yisman]

Yeah I picked Ivory Coast a few hours ago. I'll check back and see whether I really want to pick against Brazil or not.

If not, I'll likely skip the day.

[lordswing]

Huh, so Ivory Coast +1.5 is ~-250? That is quite tempting indeed. Only have a W3, and usually I'd be on the Yankees for sure, but this month has been difficult in building any type of significant streak

[yisman]

I'm taking Brazil ML, so that poses a problem. If I think Brazil will win, I'm not going to pin myself to a one goal win, even if IC +1.5 is around -250.

With a smaller streak I would, because this is one of the biggest favorites you'll see on SftC.

[yisman]

I was very close to taking the Yankees, but I couldn't pull the trigger. Part of it is that I hate them and like the Mets.

So I passed on a -185 and I'll likely pass on a -250.

But this is a Sunday with a lot of lopsided picks. Phoenix at home (WNBA) is -173, last I checked. Maybe I'll take them. Any thoughts?

[lordswing]

Also have to start considering how much time is left in the month if you want to actually go for the bigger prize. Active leader is only at 15, figure the guys on the leaderboard will start to pick more aggressively, I can see needing close to a W20 to get it. You'll have to start averaging a good pick a day.

Too bad the Yankees didn't start at noon, I definitely would've gotten greedy going NZ->Yankees->IC+1.5->Mercury. I really really hate picking beaverball though, ugh.

[yisman]

games rarely start at noon though.

In New York, the Yankees and Mets are almost always 1:05 or 1:10 starts on Saturday or Sunday at home.

Even it had been a 12:05 start, you likely would've missed out on IC.

[yisman]

Also have to start considering how much time is left in the month if you want to actually go for the bigger prize. Active leader is only at 15, figure the guys on the leaderboard will start to pick more aggressively, I can see needing close to a W20 to get it. You'll have to start averaging a good pick a day.

Too bad the Yankees didn't start at noon, I definitely would've gotten greedy going NZ->Yankees->IC+1.5->Mercury. I really really hate picking beaverball though, ugh.

If I was going for the 100 grand, I think I would've had to do two picks today. Either Yankees or IC followed by WNBA.

It's possible a number as low as 17 could take this month.

[lordswing]

Brazi's looking good for you yisman

back to work with mercubeave

[MexicanStallion]

I blew it with Ivory Coast. I think I am done with Streak for Cash. My one good run gone

[losturmarbles]

a whole lot of flopping going on in this game, bunch of pussies

[yisman]

yeah the worst was where Kaka got ejected for almost nothing.

IC player flopping.

Less leaderboard streaks on this than I thought. I guess a lot of people won't take soccer with big streaks.

15
two 13s
12
four 11s
10

Sorry, Mexi.

[yisman]

I was cleaning up a tree that fell down outside and intended to be back before the golf lock but I was out there too long

too bad, I might've taken Dustin Johnson over WNBA. Johnson should win.

Ah well, this way I'll be able to watch what I picked if there's a stream of WNBA tonight

[losturmarbles]

I
too bad, I might've taken Dustin Johnson

lol i just checked, he's +5 thru 3 holes. he's tied for 3rd overall now.

wnba streams free from wnba.com, you have to register i think.

[yisman]

yeah I have an NBA.com account which also works for wnba, but when it's posted on atdhe I just watch there

http://atdhe.net/19361/watch-connecticut-sun-vs-phoenix-mercury

lol at the Manny prop. Last year it was h/bb or AOR, and he was HBP. It caused a huge uproar.

http://streak.espn.go.com/en/conversation?matchupId=3588

then the next prop they did (ryan howard), they added HBP

http://streak.espn.go.com/en/conversation?matchupId=3705

suckmaster has a sense of humor, because Manny is up this year, but this time they specified Plate Appearance (Last year it said AB), and it includes HBP.

http://streak.espn.go.com/en/conversation?matchupId=7997