NEW Streak for the Cash

[yisman]

Moldova ties it!

[yisman]

the draw comes through!

lordswing is still alive with a chance at 100K!

[lordswing]

the draw comes through!

lordswing is still alive with a chance at 100K!

Yeah, miracle goal right there. I was hoping for a rainout at one point (does that happen in soccer games??)

I almost have no choice but to pick the Magic at this point, have to get in all the "quality" picks I can. Good luck everyone

[revnecro1273]

Yeah, miracle goal right there. I was hoping for a rainout at one point (does that happen in soccer games??)

I almost have no choice but to pick the Magic at this point, have to get in all the "quality" picks I can. Good luck everyone

very rare for a football match to be abandoned

[yisman]

I have a dilemma. I don't think I'm confident enough in tonight's game, but if I don't pick, it's like I'm abandoning the month for SBR purposes.

I'm also annoyed at myself for not taking two goals or less. It was a pretty good pick, but I have a very high standard for double digits.

[yisman]

well, I don't normally declare a game over at halftime, but I don't see how Boston can come back without Perkins.

Nice pick

[lordswing]

Go Magic, was afraid of jinxing myself.

Storm look like the only option for me, Mickelson's -158 vs. Yang, but that doesn't account for ties, and I don't know how to calculate that. Staying away from the last prop, but that looks like a fun one.

[yisman]

I'm on the leaderboard for the first time this year (I got there after Moldova drew), so two SBR members on the leaderboard.

[losturmarbles]

gj lordswing and yis

ls, at bodog they have some golf matchups that have 3-way lines. (not the mick-yang matchup tho) but all the ties are listed at +750 (11.76%). after removing the vig from the matchup (52.38%+47.62%+11.76%=111.76%, 11.76/111.76 = 10.5%) but i'm going to assume that mickelson probably has a little lower chance of tieing than what bodog thinks is the average. so i'm going to use 10%. You could try to find a sharper book that lists ties and maybe get a better approximation.

the pinny line was -158/+144 (i believe), but it's currently -146/+132, so the fair probability went from 60%/40% to 58%/42%. add in the 10% for a tie: 58+42+10=110, 58/110 would be 52.7% mick vs yang/tie. or -111/+111 fair odds.

for wnba games tomorrow i've got seattle as a 1.1 pt fav, winning 75-74. (conn -9.4, winning 77-86)
if i have time tomorrow, i'll work on updating my projections to include this season's data.

[yisman]

yeah I use Bodog and Betfair for those because Pinnacle almost never has the matchup (except this time they had the Mickelson one).

9 hole golf is basically never worth anything over 5

it's looking like no picks for me Thursday.

I'm in another group where I need to catch a W11, but that's inactive. This group I've given up on.

[MexicanStallion]

May
1. Lordswing (Lordswing) W15*
2. Yisman (Ronx) W10*
3. HustleGetPaid (Bouie02) W9
4. Losturmarbles (Losturmarbles) W8
5. Avssakic (Avssakic) W8
6. Revnecro1273 (Revnecro1273) W7
7. Goofyre (Blindspoon) W6
8. DuncHen22 (DuncHen22) W6
9. Cabo (Cabo999) W5
10. MexicanStallion (TheMexicanStallion) W5
11. JPowderly (JPowderly1) W5
12. Talnted (Talnted22) W5
13. Kingsbury78 (49ers4life) W5
14. Infamousbacardi (Infamousbacardi) W4
15. StealthyBurrito (StealthyBurrito) W3
16. Z_Wipf (Skippycowboy702) W3
17. Hugh_Morris (Billy1856) W3

(340 Points)

[stealthyburrito]

damn i did turrible this month, also forgot about this many times

[lordswing]

@Marbles, thanks a lot for the advice, I don't have anything at bodog or betfair, so didn't bother to check there. Good to know ties are ~10-11%. That line movement is pretty scary as well, definitely staying away from the Mick.

I was for sure a little worried when I saw the 4-0 v. 0-4, that's usually a place where I'd put a wager on the 0-4 team. Can't pass up -197 though, time for some stomach ulcers tonight

[Cabo]

Keep it going lordswing!!

[tltaylor89]

I hate this game.

[yisman]

belarus seems like a solid choice but not risking a double digit streak on them

[yisman]

last minute line movement made Belarus like -170 to win or draw, but I had already made up my mind to stay away.

Like yesterday's under 2.5 that I skipped, I'll probably regret this one.

[losturmarbles]

@Marbles, thanks a lot for the advice, I don't have anything at bodog or betfair, so didn't bother to check there. Good to know ties are ~10-11%. That line movement is pretty scary as well, definitely staying away from the Mick.

I was for sure a little worried when I saw the 4-0 v. 0-4, that's usually a place where I'd put a wager on the 0-4 team. Can't pass up -197 though, time for some stomach ulcers tonight

-197/+177 = 65%/35%
current line is -135/+122 = 56%/44%

good luck if you go with them

[lordswing]

I was REALLL happy to see that line movement, I'm leaning pass for the day, so disappointed.

[yisman]

I was REALLL happy to see that line movement, I'm leaning pass for the day, so disappointed.

I don't get it. Are you happy or disappointed?

anyway, http://sbrforum.com/Betting+Tools/Odds+Converter.aspx has the stuff marbles was talking about

[lordswing]

Terrible sarcasm on my part, definitely not happy the Sky are getting steamed.

[szk1983]

Good luck everybody!

[lordswing]

@yisman - I'm going with the Mercury tomorrow, they're -232 right now if you're still looking for a pick.

Passing tonight, thanks for all the help, greatly appreciated and good luck to everyone.

[losturmarbles]

here's my wnba projections for tomorrow if anyone cares (no update on stats yet )



liberty +6.5
stars under 158.5
mercury under 184.5

hope mercury wins for you lordswing

4 days left, need 7 more winners

[lordswing]

Thanks marbles, liking that set of projections right there.

For the Federer/Reister O/U 26.5 selection, Pinny has it at O/U 28 -105/-111. I don't know how much a game is worth in a tennis total, doubt it's as high (for now) as the Mercury

[yisman]

yeah

also crane is better than day, and favored, and getting the tie

but still, it's 9 hole golf.

[yisman]

• rob42073 (5/28/2010 at 9:04 AM)
  Report
  Even sportscenter just showed highlights of Feds win. haha
  
  
• 
  mijadi1987 (5/28/2010 at 9:05 AM)
  Report
  I hate to break it to 51% of pickers, but under is looking like the way to go.
  
  
• 
  BNLadyman (5/28/2010 at 9:06 AM)
  Report
  My guess is they'll cancel it...which would be ridiculous. Don't punish us because you didn't pay attention!
  
  
• 
  uwake (5/28/2010 at 9:06 AM)
  Report
  I predict that Federer wil win 6-4...6-0...6-4 for a total of 26. I say under
  
  

============


Then they cancel it...





SirKingDavid (5/28/2010 at 9:25 AM)
Report
On sorry, but, Mr. Roger Federer won the match (6-4, 6-0, 6-4), it is no a push. Mr. Feder was a clear winner. thanks.

[lordswing]

What happened? Status update says it's cancelled due to start time issues. Did the play not lock before start time?

[yisman]

the idiots running it scheduled it to lock at 10 AM EDT

it began at 7:30 AM, and ended about 9:03.

They began play on the court at 5 and only had part of a suspended match, plus Serena vs. Goerges to complete. It was obvious that, barring rain, this would start well before 10.

They screwed up and didn't notice until about 9:10, even though it was on ESPN.

People who picked it were still able to get golf in if they were quick about it. There was about a 5 minute gap.

I didn't pick any of it, although as I said, Crane would've been favored by a bunch over Day.

[yisman]

Backing off the Mercury.

No play for me.

Maybe tomorrow night I'll take one of the fighting ones.

Just need to find one or maybe two picks and get them right before the month ends

[lordswing]

Nice decision yisman, looks like the "dream" is coming to an end for me at least. In the off chance the Mercubeave claw back from their deficit, tomorrow night's selection is pretty solid.

8:05 Flyers +1.5 -180
10:30 Diego Sanchez -190/165
11:00 Bisping -185/160

UFC numbers were taken from 5dimes, as I am at home and still IP Banned from live betting refreshing. Couldn't find golf #s at 5dimes, so might be worth a look.

[losturmarbles]

tough loss lordswing. mercury didn't decide to play any defense until the second half. blew my under bet by a few points too.

ip banned where? pinny?

i like the flyers +1.5, but chicago hasn't been the kind of team that plays tight games. they usually score in bunches or allow goals in bunches. betting the game, flyers +170 is much more attractive than flyers +1.5 -180.

my ufc source thinks there's something weird about the sanchez line. you would think sanchez would be a much bigger fav. but the highest it's been is around -220. maybe it's because of the beat down bj penn gave him or maybe because the oddsmakers are expecting a close fight. so i would stay away for sftc purposes.

bisping should be a safe pick though

and i like evans over rampage.

flyers
bisping
evans

[lordswing]

Yeah, IP banned from Pinny. Mercubeave gave me a pretty epic tease last night.. Looking at the result, I wished they had just given up instead of closing to 1. Dream coach was pretty solid, choosing to foul instead of giving the Mercubeave a chance at a 3.

Nice thing would've been 3 solid picks in today to try and close the gap, but w/e. There's always next month,

I really appreciate all the advice given.

[yisman]

I might've gone with Sanchez, but I wanted to check line movement, and forgot about it thanks to the SCF and didn't remember until 9 minutes after lock.

Lucky there.

Then I considered Bisping, but stayed away. Guess I should've gone with him.

lordswing, you still got this month, because I'm not going to try for 16. I'm trying for 12, so I have to find two picks in two days.

[lordswing]

Nothing really stood out to me when I just checked, highest favorite was France in the international friendly at -152 @ 5dimes WITH juice. 5dimes didn't have the 2 golf props up.

If the Mercubeave had won, I probably would've lost it last night at Diego. Marbles was right on the money though, ridiculous :P