This is the State by State No-Vig percentage odds that each candidate has of winning that particular State according to Bovada and Polymarket, as of today. The first percentage you see is Bovada's No-Vig percentage odds, the 2nd is Polymarket. The 3rd number you see is the number of electoral votes for that particular State. The last number you see is the ranking of that State from "Smartest to Dumbest" according to World Population Review. E.g. if the last number is number 1, it means WPR considers them the Smartest State. If their number is 50, it means WPR considers them the Dumbest State. For this last category, the numbers 1-25 will be in Green(top 50%), and the numbers 26-50 will be in Red. Any questions?
States Trump is favored, and his % chances of Winning these States:
.33. Nebraska(District 1) 94.98%/98% 2 11
1. Alabama 94.98%/97% 9 43
2. Kentucky 94.98%/97% 8 40
2.66. Nebraska(District 3) 94.98%/94% 2 11
4. Wyoming 93.69%/99% 3 21
5. West Virginia 93.69%/97% 4 50
6. Tennessee 93.69%/96% 11 38
7. Arkansas 93.69%/96% 6 47
8. South Dakota 93.69%/96% 3 31
9. North Dakota 93.69%/96% 3 23
10. South Carolina 93.69%/95% 9 41
11. Mississippi 93.69%/95% 6 49
12. Missouri 92.17%/97% 10 27
13. Montana 92.17%/97% 4 18
14. Indiana 92.17%/96% 11 36
15. Louisiana 92.17%/96% 8 48
16. Oklahoma 92.17%/95% 7 44
17. Idaho 92.17%/95% 4 35
18. Iowa 92.17%/94% 6 26
19. Kansas 92.17%/94% 6 14
20. Utah 91.06%/95% 6 15
21. Ohio 91.06%/94% 17 25
22. Alaska 90.63%/93% 3 29
23. Texas 88.98%/89% 40 42
23.5. Maine(District 2) 88.98%/87% 1 13
24. Florida 79.2%/88% 30 39
25. North Carolina 72.85%/69% 16 32
26. Arizona 62.5%/61% 11 37
27. Georgia 60.91%/61% 16 33
28. Nevada 60.91%/60% 6 46
States Kamala is favored, and her % chances of Winning these States:
1. Washington D.C. 93.69%/96% 3 N/A
2. Delaware 92.17%/97% 3 24
3. California 92.17%/95% 54 34
4. Maryland 92.17%/95% 10 3
5. Washington 91.48%/96% 12 10
6. Illinois 91.48%/95% 19 19
7. Hawaii 91.48%/95% 4 30
8. Massachusetts 91.06%/96% 11 1
9. Vermont 91.06%/95% 3 5
10. Connecticut 90.13%/94% 7 2
11. Rhode Island 90.13%/94% 4 20
12. New York 89.55%/94% 28 12
13. Oregon 88.28%/93% 8 17
13.5. Maine(District 1) 88.28%/90% 3 13
14. Colorado 84.38%/91% 10 8
15. New Jersey 82.65%/91% 14 7
16. New Mexico 80.28%/86% 5 45
17. Minnesota 79.2%/83% 10 9
18. New Hampshire 70.59%/75% 4 6
18.33. Nebraska(District 2) 67.8%/66% 1 11
20. Virginia 66%/79% 13 4
21. Michigan 53.06%/54% 15 28
22. Wisconsin 53.06%/47% 10 22
23. Pennsylvania 50%/57% 19 16
Because a couple of States have Districts, it's not exactly perfect. I sort of rushed through this so... if you see any mistakes, let me know.
Also... here's the percentages I did from 4 years ago, if you'd like to compare.
I made the thread above in early July of 2020. Out of the 50 States(and DC), there were only 2 upsets. And they weren't big upsets by any means. All I will say about this election is... if Bovada and Polymarket are right... it looks VERY close.
States Trump is favored, and his % chances of Winning these States:
.33. Nebraska(District 1) 94.98%/98% 2 11
1. Alabama 94.98%/97% 9 43
2. Kentucky 94.98%/97% 8 40
2.66. Nebraska(District 3) 94.98%/94% 2 11
4. Wyoming 93.69%/99% 3 21
5. West Virginia 93.69%/97% 4 50
6. Tennessee 93.69%/96% 11 38
7. Arkansas 93.69%/96% 6 47
8. South Dakota 93.69%/96% 3 31
9. North Dakota 93.69%/96% 3 23
10. South Carolina 93.69%/95% 9 41
11. Mississippi 93.69%/95% 6 49
12. Missouri 92.17%/97% 10 27
13. Montana 92.17%/97% 4 18
14. Indiana 92.17%/96% 11 36
15. Louisiana 92.17%/96% 8 48
16. Oklahoma 92.17%/95% 7 44
17. Idaho 92.17%/95% 4 35
18. Iowa 92.17%/94% 6 26
19. Kansas 92.17%/94% 6 14
20. Utah 91.06%/95% 6 15
21. Ohio 91.06%/94% 17 25
22. Alaska 90.63%/93% 3 29
23. Texas 88.98%/89% 40 42
23.5. Maine(District 2) 88.98%/87% 1 13
24. Florida 79.2%/88% 30 39
25. North Carolina 72.85%/69% 16 32
26. Arizona 62.5%/61% 11 37
27. Georgia 60.91%/61% 16 33
28. Nevada 60.91%/60% 6 46
States Kamala is favored, and her % chances of Winning these States:
1. Washington D.C. 93.69%/96% 3 N/A
2. Delaware 92.17%/97% 3 24
3. California 92.17%/95% 54 34
4. Maryland 92.17%/95% 10 3
5. Washington 91.48%/96% 12 10
6. Illinois 91.48%/95% 19 19
7. Hawaii 91.48%/95% 4 30
8. Massachusetts 91.06%/96% 11 1
9. Vermont 91.06%/95% 3 5
10. Connecticut 90.13%/94% 7 2
11. Rhode Island 90.13%/94% 4 20
12. New York 89.55%/94% 28 12
13. Oregon 88.28%/93% 8 17
13.5. Maine(District 1) 88.28%/90% 3 13
14. Colorado 84.38%/91% 10 8
15. New Jersey 82.65%/91% 14 7
16. New Mexico 80.28%/86% 5 45
17. Minnesota 79.2%/83% 10 9
18. New Hampshire 70.59%/75% 4 6
18.33. Nebraska(District 2) 67.8%/66% 1 11
20. Virginia 66%/79% 13 4
21. Michigan 53.06%/54% 15 28
22. Wisconsin 53.06%/47% 10 22
23. Pennsylvania 50%/57% 19 16
Because a couple of States have Districts, it's not exactly perfect. I sort of rushed through this so... if you see any mistakes, let me know.
Also... here's the percentages I did from 4 years ago, if you'd like to compare.
I made the thread above in early July of 2020. Out of the 50 States(and DC), there were only 2 upsets. And they weren't big upsets by any means. All I will say about this election is... if Bovada and Polymarket are right... it looks VERY close.
Yeah but... it's +250. I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you read it wrong. At +250, all you need is a 29% chance to have a Positive Expected Value. E.g. if you think it's a coin flip at 311, your ROI should be around 75% at +250. That's absolutely fantastic!!! You're not going to find a better deal than this!!!!
