2024 State by State Election No-Vig %'s and more!

[homie1975]

Expect Camel toe Harris to drop in the polls soon. Still think Trump has this if he debates her and closes out strong.

you illiterate moron dropping racial epithets on Kamala Harris.

all of sudden Trump does a 180 and decides he will in fact debate Harris on ABC.

you know why? because it was obvious he was scared and Harris is surging in the polls.

my God you are so phukking dumb.

[k13]

you illiterate moron dropping racial epithets on Kamala Harris.

all of sudden Trump does a 180 and decides he will in fact debate Harris on ABC.

you know why? because it was obvious he was scared and Harris is surging in the polls.

my God you are so phukking dumb.

The polls are the same as three months ago.
Kamala is as dumb as you so everyone would love to debate her regardless on which network.
She's too scared to agree to anything else.

[k13]

Black people have the lowest IQ's and they vote for Democrats in the highest percentage of anyone. Fact.
So listing dumbest vs smartest states contradicts anything you say.

[JIBBBY]

you illiterate moron dropping racial epithets on Kamala Harris.

all of sudden Trump does a 180 and decides he will in fact debate Harris on ABC.

you know why? because it was obvious he was scared and Harris is surging in the polls.

my God you are so phukking dumb.

Lol Homie you are so sensitive, relax pal..

Your girl is gonna lose to Trump. She's an idiot just like Joe Biden is and everyone knows it. They can't speak proper English without a propter. That's why they avoid the media. It's just a sad fact and we should not accept this with our USA leaders running the show.

[JohnGalt2341]

The national polls are very close, but the line on the popular vote at betonline/sportsbetting is Harris -270 Trump +210. If there is value on one side I would think it would have to be Trump +210.

It would seem that way, but I think Trump's chances of winning the popular vote are very slim, I would say less than 25%. Keep in mind, there are A LOT of California votes, among other Liberal States. I wouldn't bet on either one of these at these prices. I think it's priced about right. But if I had to choose, I think the KH for popular vote has a better value here, even at -270. This may even keep rising. It wouldn't surprise me if it was -300 or more by election time.

You can get Trump for Popular Vote at +300 now at BetOnline.

[JohnGalt2341]

It's been 6 days since my original post. I may do updates on the "Swing" States around once a week or so. I'm going to consider a swing State any State where the average percentage is less than 75% or so for either candidate. The first 2 percentages you see will be the same as the original post. The next set after the dash, are the current percentages. Percentages in Red mean an increase for Trump since the original post(August 1st), percentages in Blue mean an increase for KH.

Swing States Trump is favored:

25. North Carolina 72.85%/69%-76.6%/68%
26. Arizona 62.5%/61%-62.5%/59%
27. Georgia 60.91%/61%-58.35%/55%
28. Nevada 60.91%/60%-60.91%/54%

Swing States KH is favored:

18.33. Nebraska(District 2) 67.8%/66%-67.8%/87%
20. Virginia 66%/79%-66%/83%
21. Michigan 53.06%/54%-59.15%/62%
22. Wisconsin 53.06%/47%-53.06%/52%
23. Pennsylvania 50%/57%-51.01%/52%

For the most part, it looks like the "Honeymoon" has continued. 1 major difference was KH dropped 5% at Polymarket for the State of PA. I think that's to be expected after her VP pick. This could very well cost her the election. We shall see.

The post above is from August 7th. Here's an update on the swing states. Below are the current numbers. The first percentage is Bovada's No-Vig %, the 2nd is Polymarket. The numbers in Blue indicate that KH has improved her percentage(both from last week, and August 1st) in these States.

Swing States Trump is favored:

25. North Carolina 60.91%/61%
26. Arizona 50%/51%
27. Georgia 52.03%/54%

Swing States KH is favored:

20. Virginia 82.65%/88%
21. Michigan 63.96%/67%
22. Wisconsin 57.52%/59%
23. Pennsylvania 55.41%/57%
24. Nevada 52.03%/52%

As you can see, the Honeymoon continues. AND, KH is now a favorite in Nevada. Her PA percentage is now where it was when I first created the thread(August 1st) at Polymarket and she's doing better at Bovada.

For you Trumpers... if you are skeptical of these percentages... it means it's a PERFECT TIME for you to bet on Trump. AND, I'll throw you 1 Betpoint for every dollar you wager. Just post your ticket in this thread. Good luck to you!!

[Ian]

You can get Trump for Popular Vote at +300 now at BetOnline.

The polls have shifted so much that I wouldn't touch +300 now.

From what I have read undecided women have shifted en masse to Harris and many of Trump's more reluctant voters have shifted to the undecided camp since Dems. made the switch. Harris has been getting so much positive press lately that -500 seems like "buying high," but unless something major happens to change the nature of the race I'd probably bite at -500 if it was available on November 4th.

[Enkhbat]

polls are very unreliable, no way Harris has 67% chance in Michigan. 55% at most given the disgruntled pro palestine people and other issues

[JohnGalt2341]

polls are very unreliable, no way Harris has 67% chance in Michigan. 55% at most given the disgruntled pro palestine people and other issues

You may very well be correct about this(and you probably are). Here's the current price at BetOnline:



Let's assume that Harris has a 55% chance of winning Michigan at BEST. Your break even at +215 is 31.75%(or approximately +122 as far as price goes). If your expectations are correct(and most likely they are), this should give you an ROI of nearly 42%!!! That's absolutely fantastic!!!! Post your ticket, and I will send you 1 BetPoint for every dollar you wagered on the Reps for Michigan. Good luck to you!!!

[JohnGalt2341]

The post above is from August 7th. Here's an update on the swing states. Below are the current numbers. The first percentage is Bovada's No-Vig %, the 2nd is Polymarket. The numbers in Blue indicate that KH has improved her percentage(both from last week, and August 1st) in these States.

Swing States Trump is favored:

25. North Carolina 60.91%/61%
26. Arizona 50%/51%
27. Georgia 52.03%/54%

Swing States KH is favored:

20. Virginia 82.65%/88%
21. Michigan 63.96%/67%
22. Wisconsin 57.52%/59%
23. Pennsylvania 55.41%/57%
24. Nevada 52.03%/52%

As you can see, the Honeymoon continues. AND, KH is now a favorite in Nevada. Her PA percentage is now where it was when I first created the thread(August 1st) at Polymarket and she's doing better at Bovada.

For you Trumpers... if you are skeptical of these percentages... it means it's a PERFECT TIME for you to bet on Trump. AND, I'll throw you 1 Betpoint for every dollar you wager. Just post your ticket in this thread. Good luck to you!!

The post above is from August 14th. Here's an update on the swing states. Below are the current numbers. The first percentage is Bovada's No-Vig %, the 2nd is Polymarket. The numbers in Red indicate that Trump has improved his percentage from last week, the numbers in Blue indicate KH has improved. The % color indicates if KH(Blue) or Trump(Red) is still doing better or worse since the initial post on August 1st. Blue % means KH is still doing better than her August 1st numbers, Red % means Trump has improved since August 1st.

Swing States Trump is favored:

25. North Carolina 60.91%/63%
26. Arizona 48.99%/54%
27. Georgia 54.08%/63%
28. Nevada 50%/55%

Swing States KH is favored:

21. Michigan 64.56%/60%
22. Wisconsin 61.61%/56%
23. Pennsylvania 56.07%/48%

Is the "Honeymoon" over? As you can see, Trump has made some gains since last week, especially according to Polymarket. The one major difference is Trump's gains at Polymarket in the State of PA. It should be noted that KH is also still a 53.06% favorite for PA at BetOnline. Overall, the swings look pretty balanced IMO, regardless of who you are rooting for. BUT, this is most definitely the first week in which Trump rebounded in some states.

If you like Trump in PA, this may very well be a very good time for you to bet on him(I recommend waiting until right after the debate, but I could most definitely be wrong.)

Good luck with your wagers!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

John, you're doing a great job on this. I truly think it's TOO CLOSE TO CALL.

Two factors that the BEST analyst will pick up on:
1) Polling bias. Some papers run a poll and are consistently five points too hi/lo each cycle.
...I think Silver followed this closely and would adjust to a more accurate projection.

2) The +/- margin of error on each poll.
...There's a statistical margin on a small sample set of opinions.
...When a poll comes out and puts an asterisk of +/- 4 points, that's a pretty wide spread.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Did the Dems gain any steam at the Convention?

I have to admit that Obama is a great speaker. Maybe even more so than Trump, Obama has an ability to persuade.

[JohnGalt2341]

The post above is from August 14th. Here's an update on the swing states. Below are the current numbers. The first percentage is Bovada's No-Vig %, the 2nd is Polymarket. The numbers in Red indicate that Trump has improved his percentage from last week, the numbers in Blue indicate KH has improved. The % color indicates if KH(Blue) or Trump(Red) is still doing better or worse since the initial post on August 1st. Blue % means KH is still doing better than her August 1st numbers, Red % means Trump has improved since August 1st.

Swing States Trump is favored:

25. North Carolina 60.91%/63%
26. Arizona 48.99%/54%
27. Georgia 54.08%/63%
28. Nevada 50%/55%

Swing States KH is favored:

21. Michigan 64.56%/60%
22. Wisconsin 61.61%/56%
23. Pennsylvania 56.07%/48%

Is the "Honeymoon" over? As you can see, Trump has made some gains since last week, especially according to Polymarket. The one major difference is Trump's gains at Polymarket in the State of PA. It should be noted that KH is also still a 53.06% favorite for PA at BetOnline. Overall, the swings look pretty balanced IMO, regardless of who you are rooting for. BUT, this is most definitely the first week in which Trump rebounded in some states.

If you like Trump in PA, this may very well be a very good time for you to bet on him(I recommend waiting until right after the debate, but I could most definitely be wrong.)

Good luck with your wagers!

The post above is from August 21st. Here's an update on the swing States. Below are the current numbers. The first percentage is Bovada's No-Vig %, the 2nd is Polymarket. The numbers in Red indicate that Trump has improved his percentage from last week, the numbers in Blue indicate KH has improved. The % color indicates if KH(Blue) or Trump(Red) is still doing better or worse since the initial post on August 1st. Blue % means KH is still doing better than her August 1st numbers, Red % means Trump has improved since August 1st.

Swing States Trump is favored:

25. North Carolina 59.15%/60%
26. Arizona 50%/56%
27. Georgia 56.33%/59%
28. Nevada 50%/51%

Swing States KH is favored:

21. Michigan 64.56%/60%
22. Wisconsin 59.15%/56%
23. Pennsylvania 51.01%/49%

I sort of rushed through this, so if there are any mistakes, feel free to let me know. Overall, it looks like there are not a lot of significant changes from last week. And KH is still doing better than she was on August 1st for the most part.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Trump favored again. Seems to mirror your stats, John.

Does Harris need to win PA to win 2024?

[JohnGalt2341]

Trump favored again. Seems to mirror your stats, John.

Does Harris need to win PA to win 2024?

Where?

According to BetOnline:

Winning Party:

Dems -120

Reps +100

At Bovada:

KH -115

DT -105

Looks like a virtual coin flip to me. Also, here's something worth noting. At BetOnline they have this:



I tend to agree with these numbers. I think this could potentially be very telling.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

PINN has: Trump -118, field -106

[JohnGalt2341]

PINN has: Trump -118, field -106

Funny... ...I'll be curious to see which way these Lines move in the near future.

One thing is for sure... there is definitely money to be made on this election. I suspect most Books are better at setting NFL Lines.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Funny... ...I'll be curious to see which way these Lines move in the near future.

One thing is for sure... there is definitely money to be made on this election. I suspect most Books are better at setting NFL Lines.

You're right. They're not used to setting Political odds. The swings from Fav/Dog are probably too reactionary.

I've also heard a few stories from past elections. Election sharps can pick off some State bets where it's very close to being a past-post kind of bet. Would you lay -500 if you thought it was > 99%?

[JohnGalt2341]

You're right. They're not used to setting Political odds. The swings from Fav/Dog are probably too reactionary.

I've also heard a few stories from past elections. Election sharps can pick off some State bets where it's very close to being a past-post kind of bet. Would you lay -500 if you thought it was > 99%?

Absolutely I would.

[semibluff]

PINN has: Trump -118, field -106

10 days later and they have it Trump -130, Field +107.

[JohnGalt2341]

The post above is from August 21st. Here's an update on the swing States. Below are the current numbers. The first percentage is Bovada's No-Vig %, the 2nd is Polymarket. The numbers in Red indicate that Trump has improved his percentage from last week, the numbers in Blue indicate KH has improved. The % color indicates if KH(Blue) or Trump(Red) is still doing better or worse since the initial post on August 1st. Blue % means KH is still doing better than her August 1st numbers, Red % means Trump has improved since August 1st.

Swing States Trump is favored:

25. North Carolina 59.15%/60%
26. Arizona 50%/56%
27. Georgia 56.33%/59%
28. Nevada 50%/51%

Swing States KH is favored:

21. Michigan 64.56%/60%
22. Wisconsin 59.15%/56%
23. Pennsylvania 51.01%/49%

I sort of rushed through this, so if there are any mistakes, feel free to let me know. Overall, it looks like there are not a lot of significant changes from last week. And KH is still doing better than she was on August 1st for the most part.

The post above is from August 29th. Here's an update on the swing States. Below are the current numbers. The first percentage is Bovada's No-Vig %, the 2nd is Polymarket. The numbers in Red indicate that Trump has improved his percentage from last week, the numbers in Blue indicate KH has improved. The % color indicates if KH(Blue) or Trump(Red) is still doing better or worse since the initial post on August 1st. Blue % means KH is still doing better than her August 1st numbers, Red % means Trump has improved since August 1st.

Swing States Trump is favored:

25. North Carolina 62.5%/61%
26. Arizona 57.52%/63%
27. Georgia 58.35%/60%
28. Nevada 50%/54%
29. Pennsylvania 50%/55%

Swing States KH is favored:

21. Michigan 64.56%/56%
22. Wisconsin 55.41%/56%

As you can see, Trump definitely made some gains since August 29th. Is the "Honeymoon" officially over? It appears that way. But KH is still doing better overall than she was since my original post on August 1st.

I'm going to predict that Trump will lose the debate tomorrow night. This is the current Line at BO:



That's a No-Vig % of 69.23% for KH. This looks about right to me. So... if you want to bet on KH... I think RIGHT NOW is probably the best time to do so, as I think there is a very good chance that you will not get a better price on her than you can get right now. However, if you want to bet on Trump... I suggest waiting until AFTER the debate. I could be wrong of course. We shall see. Good luck to you!

[semibluff]

I think the media will declare Harris the victor in the debate but the post-debate polls will move in favour of Trump. Harris has 2 very different groups of supporters who want very different things. She won't be able to keep both groups happy. Poll movement won't be because of Trump.

[JohnGalt2341]

I think the media will declare Harris the victor in the debate but the post-debate polls will move in favour of Trump. Harris has 2 very different groups of supporters who want very different things. She won't be able to keep both groups happy. Poll movement won't be because of Trump.

We shall see. Trump DOES have an Ace in the hole for this debate. Even after he LIES REPEATEDLY and brags until he is blue in the face, he still might not be certain if won the debate or not. All he has to do is utter 2 words and every Trumper and Right Wing pundit will declare that Trump EASILY won the debate, regardless of what else happens.

[JohnGalt2341]

I'm going to predict that Trump will lose the debate tomorrow night. This is the current Line at BO:



That's a No-Vig % of 69.23% for KH. This looks about right to me. So... if you want to bet on KH... I think RIGHT NOW is probably the best time to do so, as I think there is a very good chance that you will not get a better price on her than you can get right now. However, if you want to bet on Trump... I suggest waiting until AFTER the debate. I could be wrong of course. We shall see. Good luck to you!

This Line has moved ALREADY at BetOnline. Imagine that. I wonder who won the debate?

[homie1975]

10 days later and they have it Trump -130, Field +107.

go look again after Kammy sliced and diced Donnie and Taylor brought her Swifties into the fold

[Ian]

Last night Trump alienated all the voters who like to eat cats and dogs... that could swing Pennsylvania to Harris. At least with the RFK Jr. endorsement he still has the votes of people who dine on roadkill.

[Tanko]

last night trump alienated all the voters who like to eat cats and dogs... That could swing pennsylvania to harris. At least with the rfk jr. Endorsement he still has the votes of people who dine on roadkill.

lmao....

[homie1975]

Last night Trump alienated all the voters who like to eat cats and dogs... that could swing Pennsylvania to Harris. At least with the RFK Jr. endorsement he still has the votes of people who dine on roadkill.

[JohnGalt2341]

I should mention... I haven't looked at Bovada yet... but at Polymarket, KH has made small gains(since the debate) at all 7 swing States since my update on 9/9. I can't say I'm surprised.

[homie1975]

https://www.springfieldnewssun.com/news/aiden-clarks-dad-begs-springfield-politicians-stop-using-son-to-hate-haitians/QEZC7DVPKVC5JDPLNH7H2YSRPU/

[JohnGalt2341]

The post above is from August 29th. Here's an update on the swing States. Below are the current numbers. The first percentage is Bovada's No-Vig %, the 2nd is Polymarket. The numbers in Red indicate that Trump has improved his percentage from last week, the numbers in Blue indicate KH has improved. The % color indicates if KH(Blue) or Trump(Red) is still doing better or worse since the initial post on August 1st. Blue % means KH is still doing better than her August 1st numbers, Red % means Trump has improved since August 1st.

Swing States Trump is favored:

25. North Carolina 62.5%/61%
26. Arizona 57.52%/63%
27. Georgia 58.35%/60%
28. Nevada 50%/54%
29. Pennsylvania 50%/55%

Swing States KH is favored:

21. Michigan 64.56%/56%
22. Wisconsin 55.41%/56%

As you can see, Trump definitely made some gains since August 29th. Is the "Honeymoon" officially over? It appears that way. But KH is still doing better overall than she was since my original post on August 1st.

I'm going to predict that Trump will lose the debate tomorrow night. This is the current Line at BO:



That's a No-Vig % of 69.23% for KH. This looks about right to me. So... if you want to bet on KH... I think RIGHT NOW is probably the best time to do so, as I think there is a very good chance that you will not get a better price on her than you can get right now. However, if you want to bet on Trump... I suggest waiting until AFTER the debate. I could be wrong of course. We shall see. Good luck to you!

The post above is from September 9th. Here's an update on the swing States. Below are the current numbers. The first percentage is Bovada's No-Vig %, the 2nd is Polymarket. The numbers in Red indicate that Trump has improved his percentage from last week, the numbers in Blue indicate KH has improved. The % color indicates if KH(Blue) or Trump(Red) is still doing better or worse since the initial post on August 1st. Blue % means KH is still doing better than her August 1st numbers, Red % means Trump has improved since August 1st.

Swing States Trump is favored:

25. North Carolina 57.52%/56%
26. Arizona 57.52%/62%
27. Georgia 57.52%/58%

Swing States KH is favored:

21. Michigan 62.50%/59%
22. Wisconsin 59.15%/59%
28. Nevada 51.01%/51%
29. Pennsylvania 53.06%/49%

As you can see, KH has made some decent gains overall since the debate. And she is now a small favorite in Nevada and PA. If you are surprised, you shouldn't be. It's exactly what I predicted would happen in bold, in the quoted post above.

[Itsamazing777]

We shall see. Trump DOES have an Ace in the hole for this debate. Even after he LIES REPEATEDLY and brags until he is blue in the face, he still might not be certain if won the debate or not. All he has to do is utter 2 words and every Trumper and Right Wing pundit will declare that Trump EASILY won the debate, regardless of what else happens.

He said none of those. The book cleaned up on that

[JohnGalt2341]

He said none of those. The book cleaned up on that

You are correct sir!

[JohnGalt2341]

The post above is from September 9th. Here's an update on the swing States. Below are the current numbers. The first percentage is Bovada's No-Vig %, the 2nd is Polymarket. The numbers in Red indicate that Trump has improved his percentage from last week, the numbers in Blue indicate KH has improved. The % color indicates if KH(Blue) or Trump(Red) is still doing better or worse since the initial post on August 1st. Blue % means KH is still doing better than her August 1st numbers, Red % means Trump has improved since August 1st.

Swing States Trump is favored:

25. North Carolina 57.52%/56%
26. Arizona 57.52%/62%
27. Georgia 57.52%/58%

Swing States KH is favored:

21. Michigan 62.50%/59%
22. Wisconsin 59.15%/59%
28. Nevada 51.01%/51%
29. Pennsylvania 53.06%/49%

As you can see, KH has made some decent gains overall since the debate. And she is now a small favorite in Nevada and PA. If you are surprised, you shouldn't be. It's exactly what I predicted would happen in bold, in the quoted post above.

The post above is from September 17th. Here's an update on the swing States. Below are the current numbers. The first percentage is Bovada's No-Vig %, the 2nd is Polymarket. The numbers in Red indicate that Trump has improved his percentage from last week, the numbers in Blue indicate KH has improved. The % color indicates if KH(Blue) or Trump(Red) is still doing better or worse since the initial post on August 1st. Blue % means KH is still doing better than her August 1st numbers, Red % means Trump has improved since August 1st.

Swing States Trump is favored:

25. North Carolina 55.41%/56%
26. Arizona 60.91%/64%
27. Georgia 59.15%/59%

Swing States KH is favored:

21. Michigan 64.56%/65%
22. Wisconsin 55.41%/56%
28. Nevada 51.01%/53%
29. Pennsylvania 53.06%/51%

I sort of rushed through this, so... if there are any mistakes, let me know.

[Ian]

Interesting article from Nate Silver today. The most likely outcome in his model is Harris sweeping all 7 swing states, the 2nd most likely outcome is Trump sweeping all the swing states.

The polls could be correct, but the tiniest swing in either direction within the margin of error could lead to a landslide victory for one of the candidates.