2024 State by State Election No-Vig %'s and more!

[ByeShea]

Interesting article from Nate Silver today. The most likely outcome in his model is Harris sweeping all 7 swing states, the 2nd most likely outcome is Trump sweeping all the swing states.

The polls could be correct, but the tiniest swing in either direction within the margin of error could lead to a landslide victory for one of the candidates.

Do you consider VA a swing state?

[Ian]

Do you consider VA a swing state?

Silver's model considers NV, AZ, WI, MI, PA, NC, and GA as the 7 swing states. IDK if the sweep scenarios in his model include results where states like VA or FL go along with the 7 swing states, but I would think it's a reasonable possibility that a small percentage of them do.

[Itsamazing777]

Donald Trump is leading Kamala Harris in five of the seven key swing states which will prove vital in determining who wins the election, according to a poll.

A survey of likely voters in battleground states from AtlasIntel found that Trump is ahead in Michigan (50.6 percent to 47.2) and Pennsylvania (51 percent to 48.1).

AtlasIntel said the former president also has a "narrow" advantage in the toss-up states of Arizona (49.8 percent to 48.6), Georgia (49.6 percent to 49) and Wisconsin (49.7 percent to 48.2). Harris is leading in North Carolina (50.5 percent to 48.1) and Nevada (50.5 percent to 47.7).

AtlasIntel was named the most accurate polling group of the 2020 presidential election by 538. Trump would win the 2024 race with 290 Electoral College votes if the Republican wins all five battleground states he currently leads in their polling, with Harris on 248.

[JohnGalt2341]

The post above is from September 17th. Here's an update on the swing States. Below are the current numbers. The first percentage is Bovada's No-Vig %, the 2nd is Polymarket. The numbers in Red indicate that Trump has improved his percentage from last week, the numbers in Blue indicate KH has improved. The % color indicates if KH(Blue) or Trump(Red) is still doing better or worse since the initial post on August 1st. Blue % means KH is still doing better than her August 1st numbers, Red % means Trump has improved since August 1st.

Swing States Trump is favored:

25. North Carolina 55.41%/56%
26. Arizona 60.91%/64%
27. Georgia 59.15%/59%

Swing States KH is favored:

21. Michigan 64.56%/65%
22. Wisconsin 55.41%/56%
28. Nevada 51.01%/53%
29. Pennsylvania 53.06%/51%

I sort of rushed through this, so... if there are any mistakes, let me know.

The post above is from September 29th. Here's an update on the swing States. Below are the current numbers. The first percentage is Bovada's No-Vig %, the 2nd is Polymarket. The numbers in Red indicate that Trump has improved his percentage since 9/29, the numbers in Blue indicate KH has improved. The % color indicates if KH(Blue) or Trump(Red) is still doing better or worse since the initial post on August 1st. Blue % means KH is still doing better than her August 1st numbers, Red % means Trump has improved since August 1st.

Swing States Trump is favored:

25. North Carolina 62.5%/65%
26. Arizona 66%/69%
27. Georgia 63.34%/65%
28. Michigan 48.99%/56%
29. Wisconsin 51.01%/56%
29. Pennsylvania 55.41%/57%

Swing States KH is favored:

28. Nevada 51.01%/49%

As you can see, Trump has made some pretty big gains since September 29th. He's even doing better in most States than he was in the initial post on August 1st. Personally, I think it's still a lot closer than it looks. If Trump wins more than 4 swing states I will be fairly surprised. I expect some very nice prices for KH in many of these States on the evening of election night. And I expect her to win at least 3 of them. As always, I could be wrong.

I probably won't do another update until a day or 2 before the election.

[semibluff]

I can see WI, MI, and maybe NV being coin flips, but it's tough for me to see Harris winning any of the others. Odds aren't based on current polls but where books project polls will be on election day. I believe the odds will shift further towards Trump as Democratic voters lose hope and tune out. I thought the recent polls and odds shift would have happened a few weeks earlier.

[homie1975]

AZ has 11 electoral votes
NV has 6 votes

Both states have Abortion on the ballot.

female voters were activated in the 2022 Mids.

watch those two swing states as potential bellwether states.

if turnout is big in those two states, it could spell doom for Donnie as it will mean
states all over the country who are still ticked off royally about the overturn of Roe in Summer 2022
which prevented the Red Wave in the Nov 2022 mids.

during the 2022 mids, inflation was at a 40year high and the stock market was in the tank as was crypto.
i remember it well because i was lowering my cost basis on numerous positions in March, June, Sept and
posted as such in the STOCK THREAD here at Sbr.

that said, The Red Wave was all but certain but was blocked mainly by female voters.

perhaps they are the silent ones this time and not the silent Trump voters of 16 and 20.

Look out.

do not say i did not warn you.

heads you win, tails it's rigged.

i already know your story.

[DrunkHorseplayer]

Good point but abortion is already legal in Nevada up to 24 weeks so I don't think it'll be that big of a deal, don't know about Arizona.

[jackpot269]

AZ has 11 electoral votes
NV has 6 votes

Both states have Abortion on the ballot.

female voters were activated in the 2022 Mids.

watch those two swing states as potential bellwether states.

if turnout is big in those two states, it could spell doom for Donnie as it will mean
states all over the country who are still ticked off royally about the overturn of Roe in Summer 2022
which prevented the Red Wave in the Nov 2022 mids.

during the 2022 mids, inflation was at a 40year high and the stock market was in the tank as was crypto.
i remember it well because i was lowering my cost basis on numerous positions in March, June, Sept and
posted as such in the STOCK THREAD here at Sbr.

that said, The Red Wave was all but certain but was blocked mainly by female voters.

perhaps they are the silent ones this time and not the silent Trump voters of 16 and 20.

Look out.

do not say i did not warn you.

heads you win, tails it's rigged.

i already know your story.

It's on the ballot in Florida also. I brought this up about a month ago and it was dismissed. May not make a difference on POTUS, maybe change some of the far-right congressmen.

[homie1975]

It's on the ballot in Florida also. I brought this up about a month ago and it was dismissed. May not make a difference on POTUS, maybe change some of the far-right congressmen.

yes great point.

i did not include FL because the polling shows trump up by ~5%

AZ and NV are very much in play for harris and she leads in NV and aggregate polling by a slim margin.

AZ is slightly in trump's favor on aggregate polling.

[homie1975]

Good point but abortion is already legal in Nevada up to 24 weeks so I don't think it'll be that big of a deal, don't know about Arizona.

anything "abortion" activates females, and they Cannot Stand Trump's guts. they absolutely hate him.


Nevada adds proposed constitutional amendment for abortion rights to 2024 ballot

PoliticsJun 29, 2024 1:28 PM EDTRENO, Nev. (AP) — A ballot question to enshrine Nevada’s abortion rights in the state constitution has met all of the requirements to appear in front of voters in November, the Nevada Secretary of State’s office announced Friday, and Democrats across the nation hope similar measures mobilize supporters on Election Day.
They have made abortion rights a central message since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, the landmark 1973 court decision establishing a nationwide right to abortion. Nevada voters in 1990 made abortion legal up to 24 weeks, but a state law is easier to pass and more vulnerable to change than the constitutional protection organizers are seeking.
Voters must approve the ballot question in both 2024 and 2026 to amend the state constitution.
County officials from across the Nevada approved the required number of signatures from Nevadans for Reproductive Freedom, the political action committee that organized the ballot initiative. The Nevada Secretary of State’s office certified those totals, according to a memo sent to organizers Friday.
Several Republican-controlled states have tightened abortion restrictions or imposed outright bans. Fourteen states ban abortions at all stages of pregnancy, while 25 allow abortions up to 24 weeks or later, with limited exceptions.
Most states with Democratic legislatures have laws or executive orders protecting access. Voters in California, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Montana, Ohio and Vermont have sided with abortion rights supporters on ballot measures. Supporters of abortion rights have qualified measures for ballots in Colorado and South Dakota, and Nevada was among about nine other states where signature drives have been underway.
READ MORE: ‘They want us to be scared’: Anti-abortion activists target ballot measure organizers in Arkansas
Nevadans for Reproductive Freedom announced last month that they submitted more than 200,000 signatures. Proponents needed 102,000 valid signatures by June 26 to qualify for the ballot, and just under 128,000 were deemed valid.
The organization held a news conference Monday, which marked two years after the Dobbs v. Jackson decision overturned the national right to abortion, to promote the petition and unveil a letter signed by medical professionals in support.
“We can’t take anything for granted in a post-Dobbs world and that’s why we are really doubling down on the protections we have in statute currently,” said Lindsey Harmon, the group’s president.
Anti-abortion group Nevada Right to Life spokesperson Krystal Minera-Alvis said in a statement that the proposed amendment is “based on lies” and is funded by “out of state dark money,” and described the ballot question as misleading, given that abortion rights are already codified in state law.
“As an organization, we stand firm on the fact that this amendment is unsafe and dangerous for women of all ages,” Minera-Alvis said in the statement.
Separately, Republican organizers said they submitted nearly 180,000 signatures to get a measure on November’s ballot that would amend the state constitution to require that voters show photo identification at the polls, said David Gibbs, of political action committee Repair the Vote. If counties verify just over 100,000 signatures, voters would also have to pass the amendment in both 2024 and 2026 for it to take effect

[jt315]

AZ has 11 electoral votes
NV has 6 votes

Both states have Abortion on the ballot.

female voters were activated in the 2022 Mids.

watch those two swing states as potential bellwether states.

if turnout is big in those two states, it could spell doom for Donnie as it will mean
states all over the country who are still ticked off royally about the overturn of Roe in Summer 2022
which prevented the Red Wave in the Nov 2022 mids.

during the 2022 mids, inflation was at a 40year high and the stock market was in the tank as was crypto.
i remember it well because i was lowering my cost basis on numerous positions in March, June, Sept and
posted as such in the STOCK THREAD here at Sbr.

that said, The Red Wave was all but certain but was blocked mainly by female voters.

perhaps they are the silent ones this time and not the silent Trump voters of 16 and 20.

Look out.

do not say i did not warn you.

heads you win, tails it's rigged.

i already know your story.

Got your flip flops on ? You just threw in the towel a couple of days ago on Harris after wondering if Vance would resign way back when . LMAO !


A Dem with an average national lead of under 2 points is trouble . Under 1 where she is is a disaster .

But hey , you got Jackpot’s interest . Lol

[jackpot269]

It's a shame the will of the people sometimes don't pick the POTUS. Majority votes don't matter.

[JohnGalt2341]

I asked ChatGPT 4o to predict the outcome of each State. This is what it said:

Alabama	Trump
Alaska	Trump
Arizona	Harris
Arkansas	Trump
California	Harris
Colorado	Harris
Connecticut	Harris
Delaware	Harris
DC	Harris
Florida	Trump
Georgia	Harris
Hawaii	Harris
Idaho	Trump
Illinois	Harris
Indiana	Trump
Iowa	Trump
Kansas	Trump
Kentucky	Trump
Louisiana	Trump
Maine	Harris (at-large); Trump (1 CD)
Maryland	Harris
Massachusetts	Harris
Michigan	Harris
Minnesota	Harris
Mississippi	Trump
Missouri	Trump
Montana	Trump
Nebraska	Trump (at-large); Harris (1 CD)
Nevada	Harris
New Hampshire	Harris
New Jersey	Harris
New Mexico	Harris
New York	Harris
North Carolina	Trump
North Dakota	Trump
Ohio	Trump
Oklahoma	Trump
Oregon	Harris
Pennsylvania	Harris
Rhode Island	Harris
South Carolina	Trump
South Dakota	Trump
Tennessee	Trump
Texas	Trump
Utah	Trump
Vermont	Harris
Virginia	Harris
Washington	Harris
West Virginia	Trump
Wisconsin	Harris
Wyoming	Trump

Projected Electoral Vote Totals

Given the distribution above:

• Kamala Harris: Approx. 291-303 electoral votes.
• Donald Trump: Approx. 235-247 electoral votes.

I should mention, the main reason I am doing this is to see how accurate ChatGPT 4o is with this prediction. And I want to have it documented. I will likely ask it again the day before the election.

[JohnGalt2341]

ChatGPT 4o's Map:

[Itsamazing777]

ChatGPT 4o's Map:

It's laughable.
The odds on Trump to win Georgia amd Arizona alone are what....

[Itsamazing777]

It's a shame the will of the people sometimes don't pick the POTUS. Majority votes don't matter.

Clueless. Kamala won't win the popular vote anyway. This is going to be a bloodbath

[Optional]

It's laughable.
The odds on Trump to win Georgia amd Arizona alone are what....

I'm thinking Dems win Georgia and Pen, and maybe take Arizona, but that still leaves them short of 270.

I'm thinking MI/WI/IL are going to be the lynchpins this time around.

[Itsamazing777]

I'm thinking Dems win Georgia and Pen, and maybe take Arizona, but that still leaves them short of 270.

I'm thinking MI/WI/IL are going to be the lynchpins this time around.

Anything is possible.

[JohnGalt2341]

It's laughable.
The odds on Trump to win Georgia amd Arizona alone are what....

Who's map do you think will be more accurate between ChatGPT 4o, or Dwight's as seen below:

[Itsamazing777]

Who's map do you think will be more accurate between ChatGPT 4o, or Dwight's as seen below:

We might as well add Hareebas map to the comparisons...

[JohnGalt2341]

I'm thinking Dems win Georgia and Pen, and maybe take Arizona, but that still leaves them short of 270.

I'm thinking MI/WI/IL are going to be the lynchpins this time around.

Illinois??? Is this a typo??? I'm a little confused here. Do you think Trump is going to win IL???

[JohnGalt2341]

I'm trying to post an update, but I keep getting an error that says a Security Token is missing. Anyone know what this means? How do I resolve this issue?

[Optional]

I'm trying to post an update, but I keep getting an error that says a Security Token is missing. Anyone know what this means? How do I resolve this issue?

Click the plain text format icon before pasting might solve it. (first icon on left a/A)

It will be something in the formatting text of your source usually.

[JohnGalt2341]

The post above is from September 29th. Here's an update on the swing States. Below are the current numbers. The first percentage is Bovada's No-Vig %, the 2nd is Polymarket. The numbers in Red indicate that Trump has improved his percentage since 9/29, the numbers in Blue indicate KH has improved. The % color indicates if KH(Blue) or Trump(Red) is still doing better or worse since the initial post on August 1st. Blue % means KH is still doing better than her August 1st numbers, Red % means Trump has improved since August 1st.

Swing States Trump is favored:

25. North Carolina 62.5%/65%
26. Arizona 66%/69%
27. Georgia 63.34%/65%
28. Michigan 48.99%/56%
29. Wisconsin 51.01%/56%
29. Pennsylvania 55.41%/57%

Swing States KH is favored:

28. Nevada 51.01%/49%

As you can see, Trump has made some pretty big gains since September 29th. He's even doing better in most States than he was in the initial post on August 1st. Personally, I think it's still a lot closer than it looks. If Trump wins more than 4 swing states I will be fairly surprised. I expect some very nice prices for KH in many of these States on the evening of election night. And I expect her to win at least 3 of them. As always, I could be wrong.

I probably won't do another update until a day or 2 before the election.

It's almost here boys!

The post above is from October 18th. Here's an update on the swing States. Below are the current numbers. The first percentage is Bovada's No-Vig %, the 2nd is Polymarket. The numbers in Red indicate that Trump has improved his percentage since 10/18, the numbers in Blue indicate KH has improved. The % color indicates if KH(Blue) or Trump(Red) is still doing better or worse since the initial post on August 1st. Blue % means KH is still doing better than her August 1st numbers, Red % means Trump has improved since August 1st.

Swing States Trump is favored:

25. North Carolina 65.3%/67%
26. Arizona 72.43%/76%
27. Georgia 66%/67%
29. Pennsylvania 52.03%/57%
33. Nevada 57.52%/54%

Swing States KH is favored:

21. Michigan 62.5%/60%
22. Wisconsin 58.35%/58%

As you can see, Trump expanded his lead in NC, AZ, GA, and made some really nice gains in NV. However, Harris made some really nice gains in MI and WI.

I think it's going to be close, boys! If either candidate wins, I'm telling you right now... you shouldn't be that surprised. If this were a football game... I think the spread would be something like Trump -3.

Thanks Opti!

[JohnGalt2341]

I'm going to add the No-Vig percentages for the swings from BetOnline and Kalshi as well. The first percentages are BetOnline.

Swing States Trump is favored:

25. North Carolina 66.9%/66%
26. Arizona 74.47%/74%
27. Georgia 64.65%/64%
29. Pennsylvania 55.99%/55%
33. Nevada 54.08%/55%

Swing States KH is favored:

21. Michigan 63.41%/65%
22. Wisconsin 56.9%/59%

[str]

I'm going to add the No-Vig percentages for the swings from BetOnline and Kalshi as well. The first percentages are BetOnline.

Swing States Trump is favored:

25. North Carolina 66.9%/66%
26. Arizona 74.47%/74%
27. Georgia 64.65%/64%
29. Pennsylvania 55.99%/55%
33. Nevada 54.08%/55%

Swing States KH is favored:

21. Michigan 63.41%/65%
22. Wisconsin 56.9%/59%

Thanks for all the insight John. Appreciate the time you have invested in giving us up to date info.

GL with your bets !

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thanks for all the insight John. Appreciate the time you have invested in giving us up to date info.

GL with your bets !

Galt = the new Nate Silver??

[ByeShea]

Galt = the new Nate Silver??

Seems to be more of an honest broker than Nate.

Nate Silver's % chances go up and down for months, his business is to be a huge click farm more than anything. Why have a plateau for 4 months with candidates steady around 55/45 when you can move the numbers up and down loosely corresponding with news cycles and cash in with advertising? I'd do the same, frankly.

And of course he ends with a pick'em scenario. Thanks for nothing, Nate.

[biggie12]

Quick do I put down 13.4k on trump at -134 ?

I know nothing about politics..... I feel like this is great odds...

[ByeShea]

Quick do I put down 13.4k on trump at -134 ?

I know nothing about politics..... I feel like this is great odds...

Great odds.

I would call -300 great odds.

I'd pile money into one of these things except for, unless I'm mistaken, payout is in January or something? Not for me.

[biggie12]

Great odds.

I would call -300 great odds.

I'd pile money into one of these things except for, unless I'm mistaken, payout is in January or something? Not for me.

January I thought maybe Friday???. I'm doing it anyways just moving crypto I expect crypto to drop if she wins anyways so I will just buy back more after a dip

Hope your right ByeShea

[ByeShea]

January I thought maybe Friday???. I'm doing it anyways just moving crypto I expect crypto to drop if she wins anyways so I will just buy back more after a dip

Hope your right ByeShea

I'm still waiting for evidence that we're not looking at a Trump landslide.

[JohnGalt2341]

Quick do I put down 13.4k on trump at -134 ?

I know nothing about politics..... I feel like this is great odds...

That's a break even of 57.26%, and Polymarket is currently giving Trump a 59.9% chance, so it seems pretty good. Personally... I don't like these Odds at all, as I think it is much closer to a coin flip. But if you are dead set on betting Trump... you better do it now. Because at some point in the evening I expect him to be around -300(maybe higher). However, I don't believe that these odds will reflect reality. It's simply because most bettors don't know how votes are counted. What you could do is... bet the -134 now, and then hedge later this evening when KH is +200 or more.

Good luck!

[ByeShea]

January I thought maybe Friday???. I'm doing it anyways just moving crypto I expect crypto to drop if she wins anyways so I will just buy back more after a dip

Hope your right ByeShea

I just checked - on Robinhood they have a contract feature (0/100) that cashes when certified in January.

Is there any platform open to US residents that don't wait 3 months? If so I'd like to take a few shots at individual US states.

[biggie12]

That's a break even of 57.26%, and Polymarket is currently giving Trump a 59.9% chance, so it seems pretty good. Personally... I don't like these Odds at all, as I think it is much closer to a coin flip. But if you are dead set on betting Trump... you better do it now. Because at some point in the evening I expect him to be around -300(maybe higher). However, I don't believe that these odds will reflect reality. It's simply because most bettors don't know how votes are counted. What you could do is... bet the -134 now, and then hedge later this evening when KH is +200 or more.

Good luck!

I did get the bet in

Doesn't make any sense to hedge it out later didn't bet big enough.