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Silver's model considers NV, AZ, WI, MI, PA, NC, and GA as the 7 swing states. IDK if the sweep scenarios in his model include results where states like VA or FL go along with the 7 swing states, but I would think it's a reasonable possibility that a small percentage of them do.Comment -
Donald Trump is leading Kamala Harris in five of the seven key swing states which will prove vital in determining who wins the election, according to a poll.
A survey of likely voters in battleground states from AtlasIntel found that Trump is ahead in Michigan (50.6 percent to 47.2) and Pennsylvania (51 percent to 48.1).
AtlasIntel said the former president also has a "narrow" advantage in the toss-up states of Arizona (49.8 percent to 48.6), Georgia (49.6 percent to 49) and Wisconsin (49.7 percent to 48.2). Harris is leading in North Carolina (50.5 percent to 48.1) and Nevada (50.5 percent to 47.7).
AtlasIntel was named the most accurate polling group of the 2020 presidential election by 538. Trump would win the 2024 race with 290 Electoral College votes if the Republican wins all five battleground states he currently leads in their polling, with Harris on 248.Comment -
The post above is from September 29th. Here's an update on the swing States. Below are the current numbers. The first percentage is Bovada's No-Vig %, the 2nd is Polymarket. The numbers in Red indicate that Trump has improved his percentage since 9/29, the numbers in Blue indicate KH has improved. The % color indicates if KH(Blue) or Trump(Red) is still doing better or worse since the initial post on August 1st. Blue % means KH is still doing better than her August 1st numbers, Red % means Trump has improved since August 1st.
Swing States Trump is favored:
25. North Carolina 62.5%/65%
26. Arizona 66%/69%
27. Georgia 63.34%/65%
28. Michigan 48.99%/56%
29. Wisconsin 51.01%/56%
29. Pennsylvania 55.41%/57%
Swing States KH is favored:
28. Nevada 51.01%/49%
As you can see, Trump has made some pretty big gains since September 29th. He's even doing better in most States than he was in the initial post on August 1st. Personally, I think it's still a lot closer than it looks. If Trump wins more than 4 swing states I will be fairly surprised. I expect some very nice prices for KH in many of these States on the evening of election night. And I expect her to win at least 3 of them. As always, I could be wrong.
I probably won't do another update until a day or 2 before the election.
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I can see WI, MI, and maybe NV being coin flips, but it's tough for me to see Harris winning any of the others. Odds aren't based on current polls but where books project polls will be on election day. I believe the odds will shift further towards Trump as Democratic voters lose hope and tune out. I thought the recent polls and odds shift would have happened a few weeks earlier.Comment -
AZ has 11 electoral votes
NV has 6 votes
Both states have Abortion on the ballot.
female voters were activated in the 2022 Mids.
watch those two swing states as potential bellwether states.
if turnout is big in those two states, it could spell doom for Donnie as it will mean
states all over the country who are still ticked off royally about the overturn of Roe in Summer 2022
which prevented the Red Wave in the Nov 2022 mids.
during the 2022 mids, inflation was at a 40year high and the stock market was in the tank as was crypto.
i remember it well because i was lowering my cost basis on numerous positions in March, June, Sept and
posted as such in the STOCK THREAD here at Sbr.
that said, The Red Wave was all but certain but was blocked mainly by female voters.
perhaps they are the silent ones this time and not the silent Trump voters of 16 and 20.
Look out.
do not say i did not warn you.
heads you win, tails it's rigged.
i already know your story.Comment -
Good point but abortion is already legal in Nevada up to 24 weeks so I don't think it'll be that big of a deal, don't know about Arizona.Comment -
anything "abortion" activates females, and they Cannot Stand Trump's guts. they absolutely hate him.
Nevada adds proposed constitutional amendment for abortion rights to 2024 ballot
PoliticsJun 29, 2024 1:28 PM EDTRENO, Nev. (AP) — A ballot question to enshrine Nevada’s abortion rights in the state constitution has met all of the requirements to appear in front of voters in November, the Nevada Secretary of State’s office announced Friday, and Democrats across the nation hope similar measures mobilize supporters on Election Day.
They have made abortion rights a central message since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, the landmark 1973 court decision establishing a nationwide right to abortion. Nevada voters in 1990 made abortion legal up to 24 weeks, but a state law is easier to pass and more vulnerable to change than the constitutional protection organizers are seeking.
Voters must approve the ballot question in both 2024 and 2026 to amend the state constitution.
County officials from across the Nevada approved the required number of signatures from Nevadans for Reproductive Freedom, the political action committee that organized the ballot initiative. The Nevada Secretary of State’s office certified those totals, according to a memo sent to organizers Friday.
Several Republican-controlled states have tightened abortion restrictions or imposed outright bans. Fourteen states ban abortions at all stages of pregnancy, while 25 allow abortions up to 24 weeks or later, with limited exceptions.
Most states with Democratic legislatures have laws or executive orders protecting access. Voters in California, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Montana, Ohio and Vermont have sided with abortion rights supporters on ballot measures. Supporters of abortion rights have qualified measures for ballots in Colorado and South Dakota, and Nevada was among about nine other states where signature drives have been underway.
READ MORE: ‘They want us to be scared’: Anti-abortion activists target ballot measure organizers in Arkansas
Nevadans for Reproductive Freedom announced last month that they submitted more than 200,000 signatures. Proponents needed 102,000 valid signatures by June 26 to qualify for the ballot, and just under 128,000 were deemed valid.
The organization held a news conference Monday, which marked two years after the Dobbs v. Jackson decision overturned the national right to abortion, to promote the petition and unveil a letter signed by medical professionals in support.
“We can’t take anything for granted in a post-Dobbs world and that’s why we are really doubling down on the protections we have in statute currently,” said Lindsey Harmon, the group’s president.
Anti-abortion group Nevada Right to Life spokesperson Krystal Minera-Alvis said in a statement that the proposed amendment is “based on lies” and is funded by “out of state dark money,” and described the ballot question as misleading, given that abortion rights are already codified in state law.
“As an organization, we stand firm on the fact that this amendment is unsafe and dangerous for women of all ages,” Minera-Alvis said in the statement.
Separately, Republican organizers said they submitted nearly 180,000 signatures to get a measure on November’s ballot that would amend the state constitution to require that voters show photo identification at the polls, said David Gibbs, of political action committee Repair the Vote. If counties verify just over 100,000 signatures, voters would also have to pass the amendment in both 2024 and 2026 for it to take effect
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Got your flip flops on ? You just threw in the towel a couple of days ago on Harris after wondering if Vance would resign way back when . LMAO !
A Dem with an average national lead of under 2 points is trouble . Under 1 where she is is a disaster .
But hey , you got Jackpot’s interest . LolComment -
It's a shame the will of the people sometimes don't pick the POTUS. Majority votes don't matter.Comment -
I asked ChatGPT 4o to predict the outcome of each State. This is what it said:
Projected Electoral Vote TotalsAlabama Trump Alaska Trump Arizona Harris Arkansas Trump California Harris Colorado Harris Connecticut Harris Delaware Harris DC Harris Florida Trump Georgia Harris Hawaii Harris Idaho Trump Illinois Harris Indiana Trump Iowa Trump Kansas Trump Kentucky Trump Louisiana Trump Maine Harris (at-large); Trump (1 CD) Maryland Harris Massachusetts Harris Michigan Harris Minnesota Harris Mississippi Trump Missouri Trump Montana Trump Nebraska Trump (at-large); Harris (1 CD) Nevada Harris New Hampshire Harris New Jersey Harris New Mexico Harris New York Harris North Carolina Trump North Dakota Trump Ohio Trump Oklahoma Trump Oregon Harris Pennsylvania Harris Rhode Island Harris South Carolina Trump South Dakota Trump Tennessee Trump Texas Trump Utah Trump Vermont Harris Virginia Harris Washington Harris West Virginia Trump Wisconsin Harris Wyoming Trump
Given the distribution above:
- Kamala Harris: Approx. 291-303 electoral votes.
- Donald Trump: Approx. 235-247 electoral votes.
I should mention, the main reason I am doing this is to see how accurate ChatGPT 4o is with this prediction. And I want to have it documented. I will likely ask it again the day before the election.Comment -
ChatGPT 4o's Map:
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I'm trying to post an update, but I keep getting an error that says a Security Token is missing. Anyone know what this means? How do I resolve this issue?Comment -
It's almost here boys!
The post above is from October 18th. Here's an update on the swing States. Below are the current numbers. The first percentage is Bovada's No-Vig %, the 2nd is Polymarket. The numbers in Red indicate that Trump has improved his percentage since 10/18, the numbers in Blue indicate KH has improved. The % color indicates if KH(Blue) or Trump(Red) is still doing better or worse since the initial post on August 1st. Blue % means KH is still doing better than her August 1st numbers, Red % means Trump has improved since August 1st.
Swing States Trump is favored:
25. North Carolina 65.3%/67%
26. Arizona 72.43%/76%
27. Georgia 66%/67%
29. Pennsylvania 52.03%/57%
33. Nevada 57.52%/54%
Swing States KH is favored:
21. Michigan 62.5%/60%
22. Wisconsin 58.35%/58%
As you can see, Trump expanded his lead in NC, AZ, GA, and made some really nice gains in NV. However, Harris made some really nice gains in MI and WI.
I think it's going to be close, boys! If either candidate wins, I'm telling you right now... you shouldn't be that surprised. If this were a football game... I think the spread would be something like Trump -3.
Thanks Opti!Last edited by JohnGalt2341; 11-04-24, 07:12 PM.Comment -
I'm going to add the No-Vig percentages for the swings from BetOnline and Kalshi as well. The first percentages are BetOnline.
Swing States Trump is favored:
25. North Carolina 66.9%/66%
26. Arizona 74.47%/74%
27. Georgia 64.65%/64%
29. Pennsylvania 55.99%/55%
33. Nevada 54.08%/55%
Swing States KH is favored:
21. Michigan 63.41%/65%
22. Wisconsin 56.9%/59%Comment -
Seems to be more of an honest broker than Nate.
Nate Silver's % chances go up and down for months, his business is to be a huge click farm more than anything. Why have a plateau for 4 months with candidates steady around 55/45 when you can move the numbers up and down loosely corresponding with news cycles and cash in with advertising? I'd do the same, frankly.
And of course he ends with a pick'em scenario. Thanks for nothing, Nate.Comment -
Quick do I put down 13.4k on trump at -134 ?
I know nothing about politics..... I feel like this is great odds...Comment -
That's a break even of 57.26%, and Polymarket is currently giving Trump a 59.9% chance, so it seems pretty good. Personally... I don't like these Odds at all, as I think it is much closer to a coin flip. But if you are dead set on betting Trump... you better do it now. Because at some point in the evening I expect him to be around -300(maybe higher). However, I don't believe that these odds will reflect reality. It's simply because most bettors don't know how votes are counted. What you could do is... bet the -134 now, and then hedge later this evening when KH is +200 or more.
Good luck!Comment
