very plausible College Football Playoff chaos scenario next weekend

[hehfest]

i think it depends on how badly Bama were to beat Georgia.

double digits and in control the whole game? maybe GA is left out in that case.

it is still a beauty contest.

BTW next year and beyond with the 12 team playoff you will need to deal with potentially a 2+ loss team winning their conference champ game and getting in.

at least in the 18 years of the BCS and 10 years of the 4 team playoff, only one 2 loss team got in (LSU 2007).

imagine if Iowa upsets UM because JJ McCarthy gets his ankle twisted or worse, and Iowa wins the game.

they would make it into the 12 team field as B1G champion but they would not make it into the 4 team playoff.

just food for thought.

IMO the last 9 years the committee got the correct 4 teams every time. 36 for 36 in my count.

Just be ready to drop your jaw boy. Ferentz about to drop a college form of the 85 Bears defense on your bitches. Smashing mouths, hitting hard, flying around with cover zero. Blood flying all over the place. Broken jaws. Broken legs. It will be a war. All this talk going around that Iowa are just a bunch of chumps is going to end this weekend. They've been holding their offensive powerhouse back all year for this one game. I actually did think about that a few times if they purposely have been not showing any big plays for this one game. Ferentz wants to go out a winner. He doesn't have many of these left.

Reality - This probably doesn't happen. LOL.

[homie1975]

Just be ready to drop your jaw boy. Ferentz about to drop a college form of the 85 Bears defense on your bitches. Smashing mouths, hitting hard, flying around with cover zero. Blood flying all over the place. Broken jaws. Broken legs. It will be a war. All this talk going around that Iowa are just a bunch of chumps is going to end this weekend. They've been holding their offensive powerhouse back all year for this one game. I actually did think about that a few times if they purposely have been not showing any big plays for this one game. Ferentz wants to go out a winner. He doesn't have many of these left.

Reality - This probably doesn't happen. LOL.

i love Iowa as a program. i love ferentz. i have been following the program since the silver fox hayden fry roamed the sidelines with tight ends who stood straight up at the line of scrimmage and the stadium's visiting locker room was painted pink LOLOL

however, they don't have the horses on O to hang with mich. no way jose.

only chance Hawks have is if if if if if JJ gets KO'ed from the game early on in the first quarter.

if not, it is lights out and they lose by at least 2 TD's

the spread of +22 looks very juicy though.

[budwiser]

i think it depends on how badly Bama were to beat Georgia.

double digits and in control the whole game? maybe GA is left out in that case.

it is still a beauty contest.

BTW next year and beyond with the 12 team playoff you will need to deal with potentially a 2+ loss team winning their conference champ game and getting in.

at least in the 18 years of the BCS and 10 years of the 4 team playoff, only one 2 loss team got in (LSU 2007).

imagine if Iowa upsets UM because JJ McCarthy gets his ankle twisted or worse, and Iowa wins the game.

they would make it into the 12 team field as B1G champion but they would not make it into the 4 team playoff.

just food for thought.

IMO the last 9 years the committee got the correct 4 teams every time. 36 for 36 in my count.

georgia won 2 titles in a row, so it better be one hell of an explanation to leave a 1-loss Georgia SEC team out. that said yeah if they lose by double-digits (unlikely) people can point to their soft schedule

so hypothetically let's say bama wins on the last play. you got bama, georgia, michigan. let's say oregon wins, you got bama georgia michigan oregon. everyone's happy, right?

you got 1-loss washington out, undefeated fla state out, 1-loss texas out

and worst of all imo, you got a 1-loss ohio state team who played AT Notre Dame and AT Michigan, outplayed Michigan and lost on the last drive. are you kidding me they might not bwe better than michigan, georgia, bama, and oregon? stuff is just awful

[Ian]

Washington is a 9 1/2 point dog to Oregon. If Oregon wins I think they take Washington's spot in the final four.


Florida State is -3 against Louisville. If FSU loses it could be either Ohio State or Texas.

Georgia is -5. If they lose then unleash the chaos.

Just my opinion...

[budwiser]

just checked the title odds on fanduel, michigan 185 ga 200 oregon 480 texas 900 bama 1000 washington 2000 fla state 3500 ohio state 8000

just brutal that loss to michigan keeps ohio state out. unfortunately it's more about TIMING than anything else, lost their last game at michigan so they don't deserve it

looks like ga michigan oregon are locks (assuming oregon doesn't lose to washington of course)

and then you got texas or bama. if bama loses texas gets in, assuming texas wins their cherry game. and that's the scenario, according to fanduel

[budwiser]

Washington is a 9 1/2 point dog to Oregon. If Oregon wins I think they take Washington's spot in the final four.


Florida State is -3 against Louisville. If FSU loses it could be either Ohio State or Texas.

Georgia is -5. If they lose then unleash the chaos.

Just my opinion...

ohio state and fla state can't get in cause texas is going to take their spot, even if bama loses

i think with georgia, even if they lose to bama, it's the we can't keep a team that lost the last 2 titles and have 1 loss in the BCS out of the bcs. even though they played an easy schedule

[homie1975]

georgia won 2 titles in a row, so it better be one hell of an explanation to leave a 1-loss Georgia SEC team out. that said yeah if they lose by double-digits (unlikely) people can point to their soft schedule

so hypothetically let's say bama wins on the last play. you got bama, georgia, michigan. let's say oregon wins, you got bama georgia michigan oregon. everyone's happy, right?

you got 1-loss washington out, undefeated fla state out, 1-loss texas out

and worst of all imo, you got a 1-loss ohio state team who played AT Notre Dame and AT Michigan, outplayed Michigan and lost on the last drive. are you kidding me they might not bwe better than michigan, georgia, bama, and oregon? stuff is just awful

the criteria for the CFP committee is very clear -- it states that prior seasons are NOT to be taken into account.

2021 and 2022 are gone, done. Georgia won. congrats to them.

but this is 2023 and stands on its own merit.

stetson is gone and so are many other GA players.

this is a new season.

if they lose to Bama and it is a bad loss (they are not competitive and lose by DD) they will drop below a 1 loss Texas, 1 loss Ohio State, and maybe even 1 loss Washington (assuming Wash loses a close game to Oregon)

[homie1975]

Washington is a 9 1/2 point dog to Oregon. If Oregon wins I think they take Washington's spot in the final four.


Florida State is -3 against Louisville. If FSU loses it could be either Ohio State or Texas.

Georgia is -5. If they lose then unleash the chaos.

Just my opinion...

sorry to sound sarcastic Bud but this is obvious. they would the have identical 12-1 record as Washington but would have the Pac 12 title in their backpocket.

[budwiser]

the criteria for the CFP committee is very clear -- it states that prior seasons are NOT to be taken into account.

2021 and 2022 are gone, done. Georgia won. congrats to them.

but this is 2023 and stands on its own merit.

stetson is gone and so are many other GA players.

this is a new season.

if they lose to Bama and it is a bad loss (they are not competitive and lose by DD) they will drop below a 1 loss Texas, 1 loss Ohio State, and maybe even 1 loss Washington (assuming Wash loses a close game to Oregon)

i can agree to that.

bama -9.5 on fanduel is +450. not probable but possible. although politically denying a 2-time title winner with just one loss in a title game to bama, i suppose losing by 10+ would do the job.

i would love to see ohio st get in, just not gonna happen unless it's a miracle.

[Housemoney]

If Bama plays like they did in the Iron Bowl, Georgia will kill them,

My buddy is a diehard Bama fan that normally goes to this game. He doesn’t even want to watch it this year.

[homie1975]

If Bama plays like they did in the Iron Bowl, Georgia will kill them,

My buddy is a diehard Bama fan that normally goes to this game. He doesn’t even want to watch it this year.

bama clearly overlooked a bad auburn team who got crushed by new mexico state the week before at home no less.

it was auburn's super bowl.

alabama was already locked in for the sec title game and simply overlooked auburn peeking ahead to georgia.

saban always always always has them ready to play in the sec title game and expect them to look an entirely different team on saturday.

will it be enough to cover and beat a game georgia squad who is peaking at the right time? maybe not.

but i would not take georgia and lay the points

[getaloadoffatso]

bama clearly overlooked a bad auburn team who got crushed by new mexico state the week before at home no less.

it was auburn's super bowl.

alabama was already locked in for the sec title game and simply overlooked auburn peeking ahead to georgia.

saban always always always has them ready to play in the sec title game and expect them to look an entirely different team on saturday.

will it be enough to cover and beat a game georgia squad who is peaking at the right time? maybe not.

but i would not take georgia and lay the points

Alabama was locked into the title game, but they knew that an Auburn loss takes them out of the playoffs for sure

They had their whole season to play for
Bad take

[homie1975]

nominated your post above and sent you 10 points for putting me in my place

[dollarbill]

fanduel has......

michigan 185
ga 200
oregon 480
texas 900

looks like
Michigan/Texas
Georgia/Oregon

[budwiser]

Alabama was locked into the title game, but they knew that an Auburn loss takes them out of the playoffs for sure

They had their whole season to play for
Bad take

yeah there is 0 chance they overlook the iron bowl. that is their one big rival, for many in Alabama bigger than the georgia game or the national title

[budwiser]

interesting, according to sagain ratings georgia strength of schedule #56, bama #15

that said, both teams played the typical tough sec schedule

but the one glaring difference is bama played texas (loss) out of conference and georgia played nobody

[budwiser]

fanduel has......

michigan 185
ga 200
oregon 480
texas 900

looks like
Michigan/Texas
Georgia/Oregon

if bama beats georgia i would guess the order is

michigan
bama
oregon
georgia

that would be a great bcs. michigan vs georgia where they get their ass kicked by an sec team just like before (or not), and bama sec defense vs that high powered oregon offense who wins

dream games for sure

[getaloadoffatso]

nominated your post above and sent you 10 points for putting me in my place

LOL
I should have worded that differently
Not trying to get you

I should have realized you probably just forgot about that scenario since there are 10 million possibilities right now

[Eddy Munny]

if bama beats georgia i would guess the order is

michigan
bama
oregon
georgia

that would be a great bcs. michigan vs georgia where they get their ass kicked by an sec team just like before (or not), and bama sec defense vs that high powered oregon offense who wins

dream games for sure

So FSU would get shutout even if they run the table?

Honestly, that's a horrible BCS lineup in my opinion. Most people would prefer not to see two one-loss SEC teams in the playoff. I'm pretty sure everyone outside of the mainstream media sports networks have SEC fatigue. Georgia might as well rest their starters and run a vanilla offense if they're already in... Save it for the dance, right?

[budwiser]

So FSU would get shutout even if they run the table?

Honestly, that's a horrible BCS lineup in my opinion. Most people would prefer not to see two one-loss SEC teams in the playoff. I'm pretty sure everyone outside of the mainstream media sports networks have SEC fatigue. Georgia might as well rest their starters and run a vanilla offense if they're already in... Save it for the dance, right?

fla state backup qb. not the same

guessing the line would be bama -13 vs fla st

I'd love to see ohio st. one close loss vs michigan on the road. but not gonna happen

[budwiser]

plus fla st strength of schedule #66. it's not gonna happen, nor should it

in a 12-team playoff, sure, give it a shot with undefeated record and a backup qb

but what's the use of playing quality teams if being undefeated is the goal

[homie1975]

So FSU would get shutout even if they run the table?

Honestly, that's a horrible BCS lineup in my opinion. Most people would prefer not to see two one-loss SEC teams in the playoff. I'm pretty sure everyone outside of the mainstream media sports networks have SEC fatigue. Georgia might as well rest their starters and run a vanilla offense if they're already in... Save it for the dance, right?

it is written in the CFP committee criteria that if a key player esp a QB gets injured, they committee can factor it into their rating and ranking.

[Eddy Munny]

fla state backup qb. not the same

guessing the line would be bama -13 vs fla st

I'd love to see ohio st. one close loss vs michigan on the road. but not gonna happen

I'm gonna go ahead and say you're wrong on both counts. If Florida State wins Saturday night, they are in the playoffs. I think the committee has enough sense to put them in. Florida State's schedule is stronger than Georgia's, especially once you factor in a win over Louisville. They also beat one of those precious SEC teams by 21 points this year. And Bama would not be favored by 13 over anyone who made the playoffs, including FSU with a backup quarterback... More like 8-9 at the most.

[Eddy Munny]

it is written in the CFP committee criteria that if a key player esp a QB gets injured, they committee can factor it into their rating and ranking.

Who cares? Even if it wasn't written in, they'd do it. It's not like it's a prosecutable offense anyways... Can you prove what a committee was thinking when it decided what it decided?

Florida State is loaded with NFL talent. I'm not sure why you or anyone else automatically thinks Rodemaker instantly makes this team a bunch of scrubs. It's absurd. If they lose Saturday night, then they're an easy cut, but otherwise they deserve a bid, even if it means displacing a one loss SEC team.

[budwiser]

I'm gonna go ahead and say you're wrong on both counts. If Florida State wins Saturday night, they are in the playoffs. I think the committee has enough sense to put them in. Florida State's schedule is stronger than Georgia's, especially once you factor in a win over Louisville. They also beat one of those precious SEC teams by 21 points this year. And Bama would not be favored by 13 over anyone who made the playoffs, including FSU with a backup quarterback... More like 8-9 at the most.

well, fla state is not going to the bcs because their qb got hurt.

it's not right, but the bcs cares about ca$h, and nobody is going to make a long trip out to see a team that's a dog by 2 touchdowns. game over at the half.

they used to do the notre dame thing, notre dame would be undefeated has to get in, and then they'd get smoked in the bcs

it's just the way it is. life isn't fair either. if i could go back the things i would do, but i can't.

[19th Hole]

I enjoy seeing SBR having a congenial, lively CFP discussion.

Looks like:
Michigan Wolverines +175

Georgia Bulldogs +195

Oregon Ducks +450

Texas Longhorns +800

Alabama Crimson Tide +850

Washington Huskies +1500

Florida State Seminoles +2400

Ohio State Buckeyes +2800

[budwiser]

first time i can remember that a non sec team was the favorite

[Eddy Munny]

well, fla state is not going to the bcs because their qb got hurt.

it's not right, but the bcs cares about ca$h, and nobody is going to make a long trip out to see a team that's a dog by 2 touchdowns. game over at the half.

they used to do the notre dame thing, notre dame would be undefeated has to get in, and then they'd get smoked in the bcs

it's just the way it is. life isn't fair either. if i could go back the things i would do, but i can't.

Funny. It's easy to to be cheeky on a message board, but you wouldn't bet on an undefeated FSU team being shut out of the playoffs by the committee. You're like Lakerboy at the start of the year claiming the Philadelphia Eagles were one of the six most likely teams to miss the postseason.

I'm guessing the powers that be probably watch more football than you do. Your theoretical Bama spread says it all.

[budwiser]

there is no chance fla state makes the bcs. football is not lakerboy's sport. it is mine

and that's nothing to be proud of. i need a life.

[Eddy Munny]

there is no chance fla state makes the bcs. football is not lakerboy's sport. it is mine

and that's nothing to be proud of. i need a life.

Be sure you bump this comment on Sunday afternoon.

[budwiser]

Be sure you bump this comment on Sunday afternoon.

not worried about it. I'd just be repeating myself.

[budwiser]

i cannot believe the committee put florida state at 4...meaning if they beat louisville they likely go...

ridiculous. sagarin ratings fla state is #12, they have by far the easiest schedule of all teams (66th), AND they have a BACKUP playing

they must be high on something, that undefeated we don't want an sec team juice that munny loves...

if fla state gets in, watch the line. they will be dogs by at least 13, and the semifinal is a joke before it's played

[budwiser]

according to sagarin, ohio st is the #2 team in the country, they lost on the road to #1 sagarin rated michigan

but we need florida state in there..give me a break!!

[budwiser]

they came out with the projected spread if the playoff rankings stood as-is

Sugar: Georgia -14 Florida State
Rose: Michigan -8 Washington

[Eddy Munny]

Look at this guy trying to rationalize his folly now.

It's pretty obvious FSU is getting in if they handle their business, you're in your own head... It's not that complicated.

No chance they're a 13 point dog to anyone. You said Bama would be favored by 13, you must not follow college ball, they literally just had to convert a 4th and 31 to avoid their second loss, to a middling Auburn of all teams, and yet you're sitting there slinging arrows at the Noles. Just say you love anything SEC and get it over with.