Justin7/Durito/Ganchrow/Matty rain Question?

Sam Odom · 09-06-09, 06:33 PM

Patty, RS wants to hook-up. thats all

tacomax · 09-06-09, 06:35 PM

If there is a -105/-105 bet one one side with an implied probability of ~50% which actually has a 70% of losing then I already think that Justin7/Durito/Ganchrow/Matty Rain will be on the other side.

RogueScholar · 09-06-09, 06:36 PM

Just for context, let's remember this is one of the kids on the site upset over a couple losing days and putting his whole bankroll not on a play he loves, but just on the next bet on the board regardless of edge. I understand how statistically it's 50/50, but factoring emotion and situation into the mix, I say he's more likely to lose than to win.

pat venditto · 09-06-09, 06:38 PM

It doesn't matter if he doesn't love the play or not it is still a 50% proposition roughly give or take a few %. You are not talking logically sir.

20Four7 · 09-06-09, 06:41 PM

Patty not all plays are 50/50. If they all were we'd all go 50% and never win. My goal is to find dogs who can win out right, take the points and sometimes the money lines. A guy who is on tilt is NOT handicapping correctly and is probably looking for a play rather than waiting for a play.

pat venditto · 09-06-09, 06:43 PM

20four7 You are not matty rain/durito/ganch/justin7. Thanks for not replying to my thread. God bless.

Matt Rain · 09-06-09, 06:44 PM

The answer to life, the universe and everything = titties & beer.

Matt Rain · 09-06-09, 07:02 PM

Seriously, my contention is that all-in bets make God angry - when He sees your bet pop up on His screen, He proceeds to beam you up to a parallel world where your all-in bet loses, whatever it is.

This is my official stance on this particular topic. Now go to your room patty.

20Four7 · 09-06-09, 07:18 PM

Just trying to help you out patty now which door did you come in......

pat venditto · 09-06-09, 07:21 PM

20Four answering this question will sum up this dumb debate.

If you flip a coin on tilt will this change the percentage that the coin will land heads or tails or will it still be a 50/50 proposition?
God bless

20Four7 · 09-06-09, 07:26 PM

Originally posted by pat venditto

20Four answering this question will sum up this dumb debate.

If you flip a coin on tilt will this change the percentage that the coin will land heads or tails or will it still be a 50/50 proposition?
God bless

There is no tilt on a coin flip you can keep calling heads till it comes up. You are saying all sporting contests are a 50/50 proposition. They are not. If you have true dice you will hit twice as many 7's as 4's. You cannot change that fact. If you can control the dice in some what that will change. Not saying you can or you can't but IF you can then the odds aren't 2 to 1. Not all sports events are a 50/50 prop.

Sam Odom · 09-06-09, 07:27 PM

Originally posted by pat venditto

If you flip a coin on tilt will this change the percentage that the coin will land heads or tails or will it still be a 50/50 proposition?

If the coin knows you are out-of-control and on tilt in might land differently, outside of probabilities.

pat venditto · 09-06-09, 07:29 PM

Sam that's a irrational way of thinking.

Sam Odom · 09-06-09, 07:36 PM

Originally posted by pat venditto

Sam that's a irrational way of thinking.

Of course it is, it is absurd!

How a bettor 'feels' or his emotional state has zero affect on the score of the SD and LAD game.

VegasDave · 09-06-09, 07:39 PM

Well, take onner's position as an example.

Onner has an edge because he gets the best number, which we'll assume he does get the best number and does have an edge in this example. As such, always beating the closing line and what not, he is not truly a 50/50, he is instead say a 53/47 to win.

Now in RogueScholar's argument, he says that if onner bets angry, he's more likely to lose. While you are right Pat that indeed the individual event is a 50/50, onner's frustration and being on "tilt" leads him to just bet hard on a team that he has not detected any edge for, and he isn't paying attention to the numbers. As such, he has decreased what was a 53% edge to what is now no edge at 50%.

So RogueScholar is right in saying that betting angry/on tilt when your judgement is clouded can indeed negatively effect your edge, but Pat is right in saying that a coinflip is a coinflip whether you are super angry or happy as can be.

...Right?

pat venditto · 09-06-09, 07:44 PM

Dave i agree with your statement. Point is he argued with me for a half hour that he has about a 30% chance to win a coinflip now that hes on tilt. 47% chance is alot closer to 50% than 70% no?

Sam Odom · 09-06-09, 07:50 PM

Say for example.

You shaded every NFL game by 3.5 pts, adding those 3.5 to the fav; closing line = A -6, shaded line = A -9.5

Next, you flip a coin for each and every game each week. Heads = Fav -(shaded line)

Will shading the lines affect the win/lost record at the end of the year opposed to if you had not shaded the line but used the closing line?

pat venditto · 09-06-09, 07:52 PM

Regardless of the result chances are that it would affect negatively or you can expect it to affect negatively.

RogueScholar · 09-06-09, 07:59 PM

Bless you, Dave. My only contention was that placing a wager out of a desperation to win causes you to make wagers that in fact have negative edge, and I used 70/30 merely as hyperbole to illustrate just how poor your judgment can be when you simply want another chance to win. Pat latched onto those numbers without examining the context in which they were made.

Let this be a lesson, kids. Don't drop out of school, your life will be reduced to nitpicking comments in a gambling chat room to prove that your life isn't a complete waste of oxygen.

onthewhat · 09-06-09, 08:01 PM

I've said all along, who cares

Lets root this somebich in

Sam Odom · 09-06-09, 08:01 PM

Originally posted by pat venditto

Regardless of the result chances are that it would affect negatively or you can expect it to affect negatively.

Why? Would not the favs losing by the added 3.5 (yet winning on the real line) get evened out by the dogs that lost with the extra 3.5?

Matt Rain · 09-06-09, 08:04 PM

Titties & beer, people.

Sam Odom · 09-06-09, 08:14 PM

Originally posted by RogueScholar

My only contention was that placing a wager out of a desperation to win causes you to make wagers that in fact have negative edge

All wagers have a neg edge as you pointed out but is beside the point. A person's emotional state of being has no affect on the winning or losing of a randomly picked side A or Side B.

raydog · 09-06-09, 08:20 PM

both are correct and this is why....patty is correct because he is saying that a basic coinflip is 50/50....also, rs is correct. patty is a horrible gambler who doesnt flip a coin and runs 40% at best and is a broke fukk all the time. take that and the fact that a horrible gambler is pushing a bigger than normal bet, odds of him losing more money are greater...you might have actually been short on your odds petey