2020 Election. The State by State Odds and MATH

thomorino · 11-03-20, 10:28 AM

Republican voters are already outnumbering democratic voters in total including early voting. That trend is only suppose to widen as more republicans turnout today.

Auto Donk · 11-03-20, 10:28 AM

vitterd · 11-03-20, 10:28 AM

Auto doosh and his gay dog are so nervous today. Don’t worry, this just adds to the list of shit you get wrong!

Judge Crater · 11-03-20, 10:29 AM

I always take those stats with a grain of salt. So few events, only 15 elections since 1960. Most were never in doubt.

Originally posted by navyblue81

It would be so weird if Trump won Florida but lost the White House. A republican has not won Florida and lost an election since 1960 in a two-way race (Bush I being the exception in a 3-way race). But it's 2020. Anything goes, and the way Arizona has gone more blue, that could be the state that I'd be most worried about for Trump that could cost him. Trump could pull an upset in Nevada and offset Arizona some. Latest poll had Trump ahead in NV.

Auto Donk · 11-03-20, 10:29 AM

thomorino · 11-03-20, 10:29 AM

Republicans are outnumbering democrats even with early voting in Florida, and that trend is only suppose to increase.

RudyRuetigger · 11-03-20, 10:29 AM

Originally posted by thomorino

Republican voters are already outnumbering democratic voters in total including early voting. That trend is only suppose to widen as more republicans turnout today.

dems take early lead with mail in

reps come back during the day

dems come back slightly at 5-7pm plus those not reporting

really need a bigger lead for trump

vitterd · 11-03-20, 10:30 AM

Originally posted by thomorino

Republican voters are already outnumbering democratic voters in total including early voting. That trend is only suppose to widen as more republicans turnout today.

You and auto doosh aren’t gonna understand what happens....even while Biden is being sworn in. Get off Twitter and enjoy the day.....it’s already decided.

thomorino · 11-03-20, 10:31 AM

Originally posted by RudyRuetigger

dems take early lead with mail in

reps come back during the day

dems come back slightly at 5-7pm plus those not reporting

really need a bigger lead for trump

Democrats are far more scared of covid than republicans, republican turnout should be much higher than democratic turnout all day, in many states most democrats already voted.

Auto Donk · 11-03-20, 10:31 AM

King Mayan · 11-03-20, 10:31 AM

Democrats working right now..

All the republicans on disability voting right now.

Judge Crater · 11-03-20, 10:35 AM

Rudy,

Is that "Live" or is there another link for "Live"?

Thx

Originally posted by RudyRuetigger

someone is updating florida voters here (obviously click the combined totals tab)..not the VOTE count, the VOTERS count

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...#gid=438433002

navyblue81 · 11-03-20, 10:35 AM

Originally posted by Judge Crater

I always take those stats with a grain of salt. So few events, only 15 elections since 1960. Most were never in doubt.

I don't know about that. Bush, Jr. wouldn't have won without Florida in 2000 and 2004. The bigger reason, though, is a lot of the nation reflects Florida voters. They have voters there from Michigan, Pa., Ohio, Wisconsin, and a lot of blue wall states, so their electorate reflects most of the rest of the country. It doesn't account for Arizona, which is why I said that Arizona could be the state that muffles that whole thing up.

RudyRuetigger · 11-03-20, 10:38 AM

Originally posted by Judge Crater

Rudy,

Is that "Live" or is there another link for "Live"?

Thx

update on twitter is best

if trump goes to -230 i think you have to buy back on biden given the large number of NPAs

Judge Crater · 11-03-20, 10:39 AM

Link?

Originally posted by RudyRuetigger

update on twitter is best

if trump goes to -230 i think you have to buy back on biden given the large number of NPAs

RudyRuetigger · 11-03-20, 10:42 AM

Florida;

Trump 50% (+3)
Biden 47%

Pennsylvania:

Trump 49% (+2)
Biden 47%

Ohio:

Trump 49% (+2)
Biden 47%

Georgia:

Trump 49% (+2)
Biden 47%

North Carolina:

Trump 49% (+2)
Biden 47%

Michigan:

Trump 48%
Biden 48%

Wick Poll(LV, 10/24-25)

RudyRuetigger · 11-03-20, 10:44 AM

Originally posted by Judge Crater

Link?

I just search and find people who have the numbers

If I win on these states, im getting into the political game and golf betting only

Memento · 11-03-20, 11:29 AM

GOP up near 36K in Florida now

Judge Crater · 11-03-20, 11:42 AM

Betfair Florida
Trump -133
Biden +130

Up 36K what, rep vs dem voted?
I have seen Biden is polled at 55-41 independents in Florida. Not sure what percentage independents are in Florida.

Originally posted by Memento

GOP up near 36K in Florida now

RudyRuetigger · 11-03-20, 11:43 AM

Originally posted by Memento

GOP up near 36K in Florida now

Theyre up 75k

Didnt know i needed to update so much

navyblue81 · 11-03-20, 11:47 AM

Looking at where the money is going...

Heavy money going on Trump Fla. Now -200 on Bovada.

Money going on Trump win AZ after reported that republicans are dominating Dems in EV there.

Ohio now over -300 for Trump based on EV numbers that show huge Republican edge.

Some $$$ going on Biden to win NC. He’s pulled to +110 there.

RudyRuetigger · 11-03-20, 12:34 PM

republican voters are now UP 106k in florida after starting the day down 113k

almost 220k swing

REMEMBER: these are voter registration, not votes

Judge Crater · 11-03-20, 12:43 PM

Betfair
Florida now
Trump -154
Biden +150

Election
Biden -222
Trump +215

d2bets · 11-03-20, 01:29 PM

Based on current Pinnacle odds, Biden has a better chance to win Georgia than Florida.

KVB · 11-03-20, 01:32 PM

LMAO at you line watchers today, I'm not sure you understand what the line is actually used for.

RudyRuetigger · 11-03-20, 01:50 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

Based on current Pinnacle odds, Biden has a better chance to win Georgia than Florida.

i said that a week or two ago

RudyRuetigger · 11-03-20, 01:51 PM

Originally posted by KVB

LMAO at you line watchers today, I'm not sure you understand what the line is actually used for.

there are no turnovers in politics like football

KVB · 11-03-20, 02:09 PM

Originally posted by RudyRuetigger

there are no turnovers in politics like football

Not true.

2016 had basically a huge game changing turnover and it happened late in the game.

When the markets flip, and those of us in the syndicates make a candidate -5000 across the board, then you'll have your answer.

Until then, you really are spinning your wheels.

I'm also worried there won't even be a result tonight, or tomorrow...lol...then what?

RudyRuetigger · 11-03-20, 02:11 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Not true.

2016 had basically a huge game changing turnover and it happened late in the game.

When the markets flip, and those of us in the syndicates make a candidate -5000 across the board, then you'll have your answer.

Until then, you really are spinning your wheels.

I'm also worried there won't even be a result tonight, or tomorrow...lol...then what?

wow

i was just liking you and then you post this garbage?

KVB · 11-03-20, 02:12 PM

While the handle on this event is unprecidented, there are still far too many "sure of themselves" market efficient theorists playing political handicapper out there.

Probably why the handle is so big.

homie1975 · 11-03-20, 02:12 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Not true.

2016 had basically a huge game changing turnover and it happened late in the game.

When the markets flip, and those of us in the syndicates make a candidate -5000 across the board, then you'll have your answer.

Until then, you really are spinning your wheels.

I'm also worried there won't even be a result tonight, or tomorrow...lol...then what?

KVBer usually the sharpest dude in the room so i would not really disagree with him here unless empirical evidence or facts, do not do it on conjecture alone

KVB · 11-03-20, 02:14 PM

Originally posted by RudyRuetigger

wow

i was just liking you and then you post this garbage?

I'm just slapping the truth of these markets down, you can do whatever you want.

Enjoy your event.

RudyRuetigger · 11-03-20, 02:14 PM

Originally posted by homie1975

KVBer usually the sharpest dude in the room so i would not really disagree with him here unless empirical evidence or facts, do not do it on conjecture alone

kvb is talking out of his ass

what syndicate is he in?

just a dumb post

RudyRuetigger · 11-03-20, 02:15 PM

Originally posted by KVB

I'm just slapping the truth of these markets down, you can do whatever you want.

Enjoy your event.

you havent posted 1 useful thing regarding the political market

stop being a dipshit

KVB · 11-03-20, 02:17 PM

Originally posted by homie1975

KVBer usually the sharpest dude in the room so i would not really disagree with him here unless empirical evidence or facts, do not do it on conjecture alone

I'm just saying that the "efficiency" of these markets, ridiculously high vig aside, is not set in stone, and it never was, because of what the market information is based upon.

It will never be efficient, mostly because of the propaganda laden media, which I don't see changing anytime soon.

It would do a lot people good to remember that,and to also remember why the line exists to begin with. I'm not going to argue any of this or why the line is there, it's like talking to those guys that see final score end on the line, or close to it, and they call the line "sharp" because of it. It's a fundamental issue.