2020 Election. The State by State Odds and MATH

**RoyBacon** · 11-01-20, 02:23 PM

Originally posted by PromiseLand

Just pulled up my 1099 from them last year

Got a high 6 figure one from Coinbase followed by an audit. Two years later the IRS still can't figure it out.

**RoyBacon** · 11-01-20, 02:26 PM

Originally posted by RoyBacon

Trump is +176 at Pinnacle. Probably the sharpest line. He's fine. Don't tranny shriek but I'm predicting this goes to +173 today and to +139 by Tues night.

Already at +173. Can it hold? Maybe break +170 tonight?

We're going to find out.

**RudyRuetigger** · 11-01-20, 02:28 PM

Originally posted by PromiseLand

Just pulled up my 1099 from them last year

1 question

why do you play there?

so florida is around -156 for trump, plus 10% fee if you win, plus 5% withdrawal fee?

**RudyRuetigger** · 11-01-20, 02:40 PM

could NJ be close????

wow

**RoyBacon** · 11-01-20, 02:58 PM

Originally posted by RudyRuetigger

could NJ be close????

wow

I got so many flyers but I don't have NJ. If you recall Trump put some effort into NJ in '16. I really like VA I think I got 11 to 1 and it's probably a juicer price now. NV is the obvious live dog outside the midwest. How about OR????

**RudyRuetigger** · 11-01-20, 03:05 PM

Originally posted by RoyBacon

I got so many flyers but I don't have NJ. If you recall Trump put some effort into NJ in '16. I really like VA I think I got 11 to 1 and it's probably a juicer price now. NV is the obvious live dog outside the midwest. How about OR????

https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1322957092412686343

I like the trump trains but independent voters caught in this traffic jam would be fukkin pissed

i would be

and this is fukkin NJ

**PromiseLand** · 11-01-20, 03:18 PM

Originally posted by RudyRuetigger

1 question

why do you play there?

so florida is around -156 for trump, plus 10% fee if you win, plus 5% withdrawal fee?

Because I don't trust offshore books and don't like dealing with BTC or crypto for transfers. Predictit also allows you to buy and sell shares so if you bet on a candidate and there's some crazy scandal, then you can ditch your shares and aren't stuck holding. Also the markets are insane on there. They used to have crazy markets like will Caitlyn Jenner dance with Trump at his inauguration and people would pay up to 20c yes that it'd happen. I think first year trump was prez he was trading at 70c to just be prez by the end of the year. So much stupid money that it's well worth the fees and taxes.

**PromiseLand** · 11-01-20, 03:20 PM

Originally posted by RoyBacon

Got a high 6 figure one from Coinbase followed by an audit. Two years later the IRS still can't figure it out.

Yeah you more big time than me Roy. I gotta get to your level with all the stock trades you do. I have a lot to learn in that department- seems like you're making a killing in there.

**RudyRuetigger** · 11-01-20, 03:22 PM

Originally posted by PromiseLand

Because I don't trust offshore books and don't like dealing with BTC or crypto for transfers. Predictit also allows you to buy and sell shares so if you bet on a candidate and there's some crazy scandal, then you can ditch your shares and aren't stuck holding. Also the markets are insane on there. They used to have crazy markets like will Caitlyn Jenner dance with Trump at his inauguration and people would pay up to 20c yes that it'd happen. I think first year trump was prez he was trading at 70c to just be prez by the end of the year. So much stupid money that it's well worth the fees and taxes.

Thanks bro

When I get some points I will need to send you some for this info

**ByeShea** · 11-01-20, 03:32 PM

Who needs a laugh?

Latest CNN poll averages in battlegrounds:

AZ: Biden +5
FL: Biden +2
GA: Biden +3
IA: Trump +2
MI: Biden +9
NC: Biden +4
OH: Tie
PA: Biden +6
TX: Trump +2
WI: Biden +10

**Itsamazing777** · 11-01-20, 03:33 PM

Originally posted by ByeShea

Who needs a laugh?

Latest CNN poll averages in battlegrounds:

AZ: Biden +5
FL: Biden +2
GA: Biden +3
IA: Trump +2
MI: Biden +9
NC: Biden +4
OH: Tie
PA: Biden +6
TX: Trump +2
WI: Biden +10

Its over

**RoyBacon** · 11-01-20, 04:24 PM

Originally posted by ByeShea

Who needs a laugh?

Latest CNN poll averages in battlegrounds:

AZ: Biden +5
FL: Biden +2
GA: Biden +3
IA: Trump +2
MI: Biden +9
NC: Biden +4
OH: Tie
PA: Biden +6
TX: Trump +2
WI: Biden +10

I can hear the left crying now; we must of been cheated!!!

Independents are breaking for Trump. He could win in a landslide.

**RudyRuetigger** · 11-01-20, 04:34 PM

Trump has 5 rallies today

what a fukkin badass

**Itsamazing777** · 11-01-20, 04:49 PM

Originally posted by RudyRuetigger

Trump has 5 rallies today

what a fukkin badass

**RoyBacon** · 11-01-20, 04:59 PM

Originally posted by PromiseLand

Yeah you more big time than me Roy. I gotta get to your level with all the stock trades you do. I have a lot to learn in that department- seems like you're making a killing in there.

I did not make a high 6 six figure. But the IRS was just going off coinbase who at times gave me a zero basis for BTC transferred in. I sent them about a six inch think phone book of every trade. Now I get a automated status update every 4 months saying we are still working on your audit.

BTC is a nightmare when it comes to taxes. I stopped after the audit because who knows what that will end up costing.

**RudyRuetigger** · 11-01-20, 05:03 PM

Originally posted by RudyRuetigger

Trump has 5 rallies today

what a fukkin badass

Originally posted by Itsamazing777

Trump will hold five rallies in five different states on Sunday. The president will travel first to Michigan for an event in Macomb County. He will then hold rallies in Dubuque, Iowa; Hickory, N.C.; Rome, Ga.; and Opa-locka, Fla.

what a badass

**navyblue81** · 11-01-20, 05:07 PM

Originally posted by ByeShea

Who needs a laugh?

Latest CNN poll averages in battlegrounds:

AZ: Biden +5
FL: Biden +2
GA: Biden +3
IA: Trump +2
MI: Biden +9
NC: Biden +4
OH: Tie
PA: Biden +6
TX: Trump +2
WI: Biden +10

Lol CNN.

**rkelly110** · 11-01-20, 05:19 PM

Originally posted by RudyRuetigger

Trump has 5 rallies today

what a fukkin badass

Probably all rested up from hunkering down in the white house basement hiding from the virus and Americans that want his head. Wanna see a picture of the wall he had built around the white house?

**TheGoldenGoose** · 11-01-20, 05:47 PM

BookMaker 11-01-20 at 5:30pm est
To Win the Presidency: DEM -206 REP +172
AZ D -138 R +119
FL R -170 D +145
GA R -191 D +166
IA R -255 D +217
MI D -361 R +301
MN D -415 R +338
NC D -117 R +101
OH R -276 D +234
PA D -204 R +176
TX R -337 D +282
WI D -356 R +296

**BigJay** · 11-01-20, 05:50 PM

Originally posted by RudyRuetigger

Trump will hold five rallies in five different states on Sunday. The president will travel first to Michigan for an event in Macomb County. He will then hold rallies in Dubuque, Iowa; Hickory, N.C.; Rome, Ga.; and Opa-locka, Fla.

what a badass

The Klan is strong with this one

**Judge Crater** · 11-01-20, 06:06 PM

I think "IF" Trump does bad on Tuesday, he will be depressed and continue his rallies trying to keep up hope. Sort of like the guy in shock in the plane crash who calmly gets his luggage out of the overhead bin while the plane is on fire and people are dead all around him.

Betfair
Biden -204 (Biden is up 12 cents in last 24 hours or so)
Trump +200

Originally posted by RudyRuetigger

Trump will hold five rallies in five different states on Sunday. The president will travel first to Michigan for an event in Macomb County. He will then hold rallies in Dubuque, Iowa; Hickory, N.C.; Rome, Ga.; and Opa-locka, Fla.

what a badass

**King Mayan** · 11-01-20, 06:08 PM

Originally posted by ByeShea

Who needs a laugh?

Latest CNN poll averages in battlegrounds:

AZ: Biden +5
FL: Biden +2
GA: Biden +3
IA: Trump +2
MI: Biden +9
NC: Biden +4
OH: Tie
PA: Biden +6
TX: Trump +2
WI: Biden +10

You should see the Fox News poll

Looks worse for trump

**pavyracer** · 11-01-20, 06:08 PM

Pinny shot up to +191 from +179. Trump was +170 yesterday.

Something is up.

**Judge Crater** · 11-01-20, 06:17 PM

@NateSilver538
We've run our presidential forecast 38 times since yesterday morning and at no point have Biden's odds been lower than 88.8 percent or higher than 89.8 percent. Trump can win but polls that people are getting very excited about/mad at/etc. aren't really changing the picture much.

If Silver is correct, the true odds on Biden are -835 not -203.

**King Mayan** · 11-01-20, 06:17 PM

Originally posted by pavyracer

Pinny shot up to +191 from +179. Trump was +170 yesterday.

Something is up.

Trying to get more trump money

**BigJay** · 11-01-20, 06:44 PM

If 2016 hadn’t happened the way it did I believe I believe Biden would be a much higher favorite at this point.

Hard to believe the line hasn’t moved more than 30 cents or so either way in a couple of weeks.

**RoyBacon** · 11-01-20, 07:06 PM

Originally posted by pavyracer

Pinny shot up to +191 from +179. Trump was +170 yesterday.

Something is up.

It's just drifting aimlessly. Slightly bullish for the tards that it's held.

**RudyRuetigger** · 11-01-20, 07:28 PM

60minutes trying 1 last con job

**Judge Crater** · 11-01-20, 07:37 PM

As in Poker, it's rough when you play bad and are running unlucky.

Trump ran a terrible campaign, only appealing to his base. Trump also got unlucky with a once in a hundred year pandemic. He didn't do himself any favors by mismanaging it.

**vitterd** · 11-01-20, 07:51 PM

Originally posted by Judge Crater

As in Poker, it's rough when you play bad and are running unlucky.

Trump ran a terrible campaign, only appealing to his base. Trump also got unlucky with a once in a hundred year pandemic. He didn't do himself any favors by mismanaging it.

It’s unexplainable how the guy gets even 1 single vote.

**RudyRuetigger** · 11-01-20, 07:52 PM

Originally posted by Judge Crater

As in Poker, it's rough when you play bad and are running unlucky.

Trump ran a terrible campaign, only appealing to his base. Trump also got unlucky with a once in a hundred year pandemic. He didn't do himself any favors by mismanaging it.

A liberal nut stating this and another fukkin FRUIT LOOP agreeing

Says all you need to know

**RoyBacon** · 11-01-20, 08:08 PM

Originally posted by Judge Crater

As in Poker, it's rough when you play bad and are running unlucky.

Trump ran a terrible campaign, only appealing to his base. Trump also got unlucky with a once in a hundred year pandemic. He didn't do himself any favors by mismanaging it.

I doubt any potus would survive a reelection year pandemic.

Governors manage states. POTUS mismanaging is a tard talking point but effective.

We were lucky in 2016. We have to be thankful for 4 great years.

**Judge Crater** · 11-01-20, 08:11 PM

Do you disagree, do you think he ran a smart campaign, one that would get as many votes as possible?
Do you not think he got unlucky having a worldwide pandemic?
Do you think he managed the pandemic as good as other countries did.

Originally posted by RudyRuetigger

A liberal nut stating this and another fukkin FRUIT LOOP agreeing

Says all you need to know

**DwightShrute** · 11-01-20, 08:13 PM

Originally posted by Judge Crater

@NateSilver538
We've run our presidential forecast 38 times since yesterday morning and at no point have Biden's odds been lower than 88.8 percent or higher than 89.8 percent. Trump can win but polls that people are getting very excited about/mad at/etc. aren't really changing the picture much.

If Silver is correct, the true odds on Biden are -835 not -203.

Nov 3, 2016, 10:50am EDT

Nate Silver gave Hillary Clinton an overwhelming 85 percent chance of winning.

**RoyBacon** · 11-01-20, 08:18 PM

Originally posted by Judge Crater

Do you disagree, do you think he ran a smart campaign, that would get as many votes as possible?
Do you not think he got unlucky having a worldwide pandemic?
Do you think he managed the pandemic as good as other countries did.

Yes, I thought he ran a good campaign. You can only do so much when the entire media, social media corps are against you.

Obviously unlucky to have a horrible pandemic in an election year. Biden would NOT have done better. Pence ran it and Harris would certainly not have done a better job.

No. Obviously in hindsight he should have shut all travel down in January. But he is not God. Biden would not have shut down air travel when Trump did so there would have been many more deaths under Biden.