2020 Election. The State by State Odds and MATH

[thetrinity]

If Sleepy was really up 14% he wouldn't be there today. Period.

He doesn't have the energy to waste on states he's up more than 4%.

Yeah, you beat me to it. Why is he there then

[Judge Crater]

You really get to see how courts must have evolved with all the rules about respect and evidence being relative to the case (argument). Could you imagine if we were in a courtroom trying to convince a judge or jury on whether Trump or Biden had value at the current prices. As soon as you started talking "Sleepy this" and "Don the Con", you would get slapped down and told to stick respectively to the facts. If you called your opposing counsel an idiot, F^%cktard or worse you would probably be sanctioned.

The only thing that should matter here is who (if anyone) has value at the current price and why.

I would hope that everyone here is looking to bet either side of any political race or prop at a positive expectation.

This is the part where I probably get screamed at from both extremes

Betfair 12:35 PM PST 10/30/20
Biden -200
Trump +196

[vitterd]

LMAO!!!

Dude every time you get your shit packed in you go to; die alone, no one will miss you, all alone, etc. I can just see you crying while you type that.

Butch up! It's a posting forum. No one put a luggy on your butt plug. Quit being so over dramatic.

All of you are alone. This is why you need to belong to the trump cult. Nobody has ever loved any of you. All you you could die tomorrow and it would not change a single life. I’m sorry the truth hurts.

[navyblue81]

Will play some big ML bets that I think are lock states and should be worse value, such as Alabama, Indiana and New Mexico.

As far as value plays, I like Trump at +275 to win Minnesota. Hillary led there by 8-11 pts pre-election day and only won by 1. Biden’s lead there is only 3-5 pts and the fact he’s there today is an indication he’s nervous about losing the state.

[vitterd]

RCP averages look upbeat for Trump enthusiasts:

Any state where Biden is +3 or less is a Trump State.
That +17 poll more than likely was done by Reverend Wright & Father Flager with
clipboard in hand in the Somalian section around Karmel Mall

Latest State Polls

• Michigan (Trafalgar): Trump +2
• Florida (The Hill): Biden +3
• Arizona (Rasmussen): Trump +4
• Nevada (Trafalgar): Biden +2
• Iowa (Quinnipiac): Trump +1
• Minnesota (SurveyUSA): Biden +5

Nice cherry picking!!

[Judge Crater]

True, polls can be wrong'
Also true, polls can be wrong in Biden's direction.

[navyblue81]

While I think Trump has a good chance of picking off Minnesota, I am worried about his chances in Arizona and Georgia. I think a lot of the swing states will split, Trump perhaps winning Ohio and NC but losing Pa and Wisky. But Arizona is going to hurt him a lot. Too many dominos have to fall in one row, more than 2016, even if he is able to pick off MN like I think he will.

In the end, America settles for Biden as President. It’s not good for us and not what people want, but it’s a vote on the incumbent and I think COVID will ultimately cost Trump. Without COVID, he prolly wins re-election easy.

[RudyRuetigger]

Ouch!!!

[Judge Crater]

Dem's are a small betting favorite there, could easily be tied.
I personally do not see value at Trump +105
Trump won by 3.5% in 2016

[Judge Crater]

This is RCP in other battlegrounds inc AZ

Pennsylvania	49.5	45.9	Biden +3.6
Florida	48.4	47.2	Biden +1.2
Georgia	47.7	47.3	Biden +0.4
North Carolina	48.5	47.3	Biden +1.2
Arizona	47.0	47.0	Tie
Minnesota	48.0	43.3	Biden +4.7

[navyblue81]

My plays:
Trump to win MN +275
Trump to win MICH +230
Biden to win AZ -130
Biden to win GA +120

I think Biden surprises and does well in Southern states but Trump does better in MW. Fla the southern state that I think is a complete toss up and I think winner of that is the President.

[RoyBacon]

This is RCP in other battlegrounds inc AZ

Pennsylvania	49.5	45.9	Biden +3.6
Florida	48.4	47.2	Biden +1.2
Georgia	47.7	47.3	Biden +0.4
North Carolina	48.5	47.3	Biden +1.2
Arizona	47.0	47.0	Tie
Minnesota	48.0	43.3	Biden +4.7

Lot to determine. I think Trump will close a couple of points between now and Tuesday.

Biden would do better if he stayed in the basement.

[JohnGalt2341]

Check out this line at BetOnline. Compare that to 2016. This could be telling:

Total Vote Percentage for 3rd Parties

09:00 AM

Under 3 %

-250

Over 3 %

+170

[thomorino]

Trump looks like he’s going to double his support from 2016 with Latinos and blacks, that should offset the loss of suburban women

[Judge Crater]

Trump can win if everything breaks his way Tuesday. Which sounds far fetched except that describes literally every day of his life

[RoyBacon]

Trump can win if everything breaks his way Tuesday. Which sounds far fetched except that describes literally every day of his life

LOL.

Good post.

[navyblue81]

A couple locks:

Biden will win the popular vote thanks to Cali and NY

Trump will dominate as far as the map goes, winning 2/3+ of the counties in the US.

The question is whether Trump can dominate rural American vote enough to offset the losses he will pile up in big cities. He’ll get killed in Philly and Pitt but can be win big enough in the country areas of Pa like he did in 2016.

[RoyBacon]

I just realized that it wouldn't be entirely unheard of for there to a be a 269 vote tie.

If Trump wins all the states where he's favored by -350 or more and the Dems also win all the states where they are favored by -350 or more... AND Trump wins the states below:

Georgia -190 16
Iowa -210 6
North Carolina -130 15
Ohio -170 18
Arizona +120 11
Florida + 100 29
Wisconsin +165 10

And Dems Win:
Michigan -295 16
New Hampshire -270 4
Pennsylvania -265 20

Then it would be a 269 tie. With everything that has gone on this year a 269 tie wouldn't surprise me at all.

That’s exactly the map I came up with a couple of weeks ago.

At this point it’s Wisconsin that makes or breaks that map.

Of course AZ and NC are close but not like WI.

All ties go to Trump by way of the House.

[vitterd]

Trump looks like he’s going to double his support from 2016 with Latinos and blacks, that should offset the loss of suburban women

Nah. Not gonna double and he’s lost so much support from suburban women and seniors. He’s cooked.

[thomorino]

Nah. Not gonna double and he’s lost so much support from suburban women and seniors. He’s cooked.

I think he’ll come close to doubling and republican voter registration is up significantly, 135k in Pennsylvania alone. Trump will max his base out and do well enough with blacks and Latinos to have a very good chance to win.

[RoyBacon]

I think he’ll come close to doubling and republican voter registration is up significantly, 135k in Pennsylvania alone. Trump will max his base out and do well enough with blacks and Latinos to have a very good chance to win.

I heard the shriek from here! LOL

[vitterd]

I heard the shriek from here! LOL

Independents and voters who sat out last time.....mostly Biden. Trump best chance is in the court. He can’t win if all the votes are counted. It’s mathematically impossible

[RoyBacon]

Independents and voters who sat out last time.....mostly Biden. Trump best chance is in the court. He can’t win if all the votes are counted. It’s mathematically impossible

Dude you don’t have an actual opinion. You’re just crapping out your mouth.

I just bet real money on Trump to win Florida. He looks like he will win FL easily.

You are possessed by your fake hate to have any meaningful opinion.

[thomorino]

A couple locks:

Biden will win the popular vote thanks to Cali and NY

Trump will dominate as far as the map goes, winning 2/3+ of the counties in the US.

The question is whether Trump can dominate rural American vote enough to offset the losses he will pile up in big cities. He’ll get killed in Philly and Pitt but can be win big enough in the country areas of Pa like he did in 2016.

It’s absurd to say Biden is a lock to win the popular vote. People in California and New York are fed up with the lockdowns that have ruined many peoples businesses and both states are completely shutdown. Trump is also doing much better this year in the Latino and black community in most historically accurate polls. Biden is rightly favored to win the popular vote but he’s no lock, California is 40% Latino and if trump does much better with that groups as some early indications suggest he will he could win the popular vote.

[mtofell]

he’s lost so much support from suburban women

We keep hearing this throughout the campaign but I have to ask how much did he really have in the first place? It's not as though he was some choir boy and suddenly turned into a foul mouth a-hole. He's been that since the very start of his career. fwiw.... In the statistically irrelevant study known as my life I know plenty of suburban women who are all in for him. Plenty also who absolutely cannot stand him (plenty of men on each side as well). I guess my point is I just don't believe all these women who were once from Trump have suddenly soured on him. If they could stomach him 4 years ago I think they can stomach him now. If they hated him then.... they probably still do.

[RoyBacon]

It’s absurd to say Biden is a lock to win the popular vote. People in California and New York are fed up with the lockdowns that have ruined many peoples businesses and both states are completely shutdown. Trump is also doing much better this year in the Latino and black community in most historically accurate polls. Biden is rightly favored to win the popular vote but he’s no lock, California is 40% Latino and if trump does much better with that groups as some early indications suggest he will he could win the popular vote.

I was very suspicious of that line on who will win the popular vote.

Those can’t lose odds sure seem to lose a lot.

[vitterd]

Dude you don’t have an actual opinion. You’re just crapping out your mouth.

I just bet real money on Trump to win Florida. He looks like he will win FL easily.

You are possessed by your fake hate to have any meaningful opinion.

You don’t have a clue and that’s why I told you that you couldn’t even get to my desk for a political job. I know more about the numbers than you do. You don’t even know what you’re looking at. You are lost.

[Judge Crater]

I am thinking of emptying my available balance on Monday night

Trump wins Wyoming, West Virginia, Alabama, Arkansas
Biden wins California, Maryland, DC, Massachusetts

[vitterd]

I am thinking of emptying my available balance on Monday night

Trump wins Wyoming, West Virginia, Alabama, Arkansas
Biden wins California, Maryland, DC, Massachusetts

Don’t you have to lay like 5 million to win 100 on those. I mean, those are in stone.

[rkelly110]

Hmmm, wonder who these people will vote for?

[rkelly110]

[Judge Crater]

Most like 20-25 to 1
A one day investment.

Don’t you have to lay like 5 million to win 100 on those. I mean, those are in stone.

[Itsamazing777]

You don’t have a clue and that’s why I told you that you couldn’t even get to my desk for a political job. I know more about the numbers than you do. You don’t even know what you’re looking at. You are lost.

You are clueless
Why do you even post here. Everyone hates you
It must be to see yourself talk
You poor lonely man...

[rkelly110]

[dustyy]

I am thinking of emptying my available balance on Monday night

Trump wins Wyoming, West Virginia, Alabama, Arkansas
Biden wins California, Maryland, DC, Massachusetts

Don’t you have to lay like 5 million to win 100 on those. I mean, those are in stone.

There may have been a hint of sarcasm in his post