Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

**d2bets** · 05-02-20, 06:10 PM

FWIW Berkshire sold all of its airline stakes in April (10% of the 4 largest). At a huge loss, of course.

And still sitting on a huge pile of cash, without buying.

Buffet giving his usual "bet on America" schtick, but frankly he sounds pretty bearish at the moment.

**d2bets** · 05-02-20, 08:43 PM

No indicators yet, but does anyone else think Monday could be ugly?

**MinnesotaFats** · 05-02-20, 08:45 PM

Hate to sound like a broken record but I'm telling you the SP is going down 15% by August.

**d2bets** · 05-02-20, 08:49 PM

Originally posted by MinnesotaFats

Hate to sound like a broken record but I'm telling you the SP is going down 15% by August.

I agree, but I'm pretty sure you were calling for a fall almost 15% ago. 15% would be a little over 2,400. Still above the lows.

On April 6 ~2,650 you called for 20-25% down over the next 2 weeks.

**khicks26** · 05-02-20, 08:55 PM

What are the effects (long & short) of the FED pumping 6 trillion dollars into the stock market to keep it afloat?

**MinnesotaFats** · 05-02-20, 09:15 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

I agree, but I'm pretty sure you were calling for a fall almost 15% ago. 15% would be a little over 2,400. Still above the lows.

On April 6 ~2,650 you called for 20-25% down over the next 2 weeks.

Yes, I really thought we'd see 2014 levels....SP 2100 and DOW30 at 17500.

I also didn't foresee 3 rounds of stimulus dumping $3trillion fukking dollars into the economy or the fed buying corporate paper lol.

That kinda propped things up a bit for blue chippers and devalued the dollar for purposes of market cap....

With that said, I foresee the "adjusted equivelant" (if that's a thing) of 2014 levels, which I guess would be a further 16-18% drop from current levels, and adding the 3+% drop from Friday....and I can't see congress passing anymore bills here because there's no buyers for this debt. T bills are getting no traction, and the Fed is carrying $7trillion on it's books.

With the majority of the 18-50 discretionary consumer spending population out of work and broke- in arrears w all their payments, etc, I don't see any economic rebound for Trump, and dipshit Biden going to Warren as VP will further sink things going forward into late summer as she's all about reform on Wall Street.

**asiagambler** · 05-02-20, 09:18 PM

Many companies will go bankrupt. That has not been priced in IMO

**guitarjosh** · 05-02-20, 11:12 PM

Originally posted by khicks26

What are the effects (long & short) of the FED pumping 6 trillion dollars into the stock market to keep it afloat?

**milwaukee mike** · 05-03-20, 07:12 AM

Originally posted by MinnesotaFats

Hate to sound like a broken record but I'm telling you the SP is going down 15% by August.

why would it go down in the summer, when there won't be more flu-like symptoms?

here's how i see this playing out

states reopen, everyone is fine... then september/october we are told there is a second wave! or some other nonsense, so we all need to get jabbed with a vaccine... creates something of a battle between vaxxers and anti-vaxxers, media keeps calling anti-vaxxers criminals that endanger others' safety (ha!)

and then the market crashes again in september/october, and at some point we get a financial reset where green dollars are only worth 10% of the new orange dollars

**homie1975** · 05-03-20, 09:22 AM

mike there is nearly ZERO chance a vaccine is available by sept. i keep hearing folks around talking about "fast tracking" a vaccine. fast-tracking would mean one year minimum so we are looking at march or so next year. even something that fast could have terrible consequences if it did not go through thorough and comprehensive phase 3 testing. if they take shortcuts, it can hurt more than help.

**milwaukee mike** · 05-03-20, 09:26 AM

Originally posted by homie1975

mike there is nearly ZERO chance a vaccine is available by sept. i keep hearing folks around talking about "fast tracking" a vaccine. fast-tracking would mean one year minimum so we are looking at march or so next year. even something that fast could have terrible consequences if it did not go through thorough and comprehensive phase 3 testing. if they take shortcuts, it can hurt more than help.

vaccine already exists, just like the virus existed in 2015 when gates was talking about it as "pandemic 1"

all the world's a stage... what about the hot mic at the white house press briefing, where the guy wearing a mask was told he didn't need it "everyone here is inoculated"

**grease lightnin** · 05-03-20, 09:32 AM

Originally posted by milwaukee mike

vaccine already exists, just like the virus existed in 2015 when gates was talking about it as "pandemic 1"

all the world's a stage... what about the hot mic at the white house press briefing, where the guy wearing a mask was told he didn't need it "everyone here is inoculated"

You got a link?

**homie1975** · 05-03-20, 09:43 AM

Originally posted by milwaukee mike

vaccine already exists, just like the virus existed in 2015 when gates was talking about it as "pandemic 1"

all the world's a stage... what about the hot mic at the white house press briefing, where the guy wearing a mask was told he didn't need it "everyone here is inoculated"

i believe that was either fake (dubbed over) or the guy speaking confused "tested" with "innoculated" or whatever word he used.

**homie1975** · 05-03-20, 09:48 AM

joking around before WH briefing caught on hot mic

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eT_Gis3gkwc

**milwaukee mike** · 05-03-20, 12:33 PM

Originally posted by homie1975

joking around before WH briefing caught on hot mic

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eT_Gis3gkwc

what kind of joke is "everyone here has been vaccinated anyway"?... guess i missed the punchline

if it was fake it would've been discredited by the people involved

**KVB** · 05-03-20, 01:11 PM

lol, I don't think mankind has ever come up with a vaccine for a corona virus.

They probably never will.

**milwaukee mike** · 05-03-20, 01:33 PM

Originally posted by KVB

lol, I don't think mankind has ever come up with a vaccine for a corona virus.

They probably never will.

and yet all these people have been so fooled into believing that is our only hope

it's just a freaking narrative!

nobody ever mentioned that we needed a vaccine for ebola, or sars, or h1n1... if everyone would just think about that for a minute they would realize what the real point of all of this is

**SBR_Guest_Pro** · 05-03-20, 01:38 PM

Gilead is pretty on top of getting a vaccine out. Also keep in mind that we are not the only country looking for a vaccine so it's very possible other countries are close to finishing one also

**homie1975** · 05-03-20, 02:56 PM

Originally posted by SBR_Guest_Pro

Gilead is pretty on top of getting a vaccine out. Also keep in mind that we are not the only country looking for a vaccine so it's very possible other countries are close to finishing one also

Right but if it mutates like cold and flu strains do then the vaccine is only good against one type of COVID 19

**milwaukee mike** · 05-03-20, 02:58 PM

Originally posted by homie1975

Right but if it mutates like cold and flu strains do then the vaccine is only good against one type of COVID 19

bingo

why in the world would anyone trust a vaccine? they flat out lie and say the flu isn't in the vaccine, which the label clearly states it is... and they flat out lie and say that vaccines are safe and tested, which the label clearly states they aren't

**milwaukee mike** · 05-03-20, 03:03 PM

"flu shots don't contain mercury"... oops the label says otherwise

**d2bets** · 05-03-20, 05:01 PM

Originally posted by milwaukee mike

and yet all these people have been so fooled into believing that is our only hope

it's just a freaking narrative!

nobody ever mentioned that we needed a vaccine for ebola, or sars, or h1n1... if everyone would just think about that for a minute they would realize what the real point of all of this is

Because none of those had the combination of contagiousness and serious consequences that this does.

**d2bets** · 05-03-20, 05:23 PM

First look futures down about 1%. Think Monday is going to be much, much worse than that.

**guitarjosh** · 05-03-20, 05:56 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

First look futures down about 1%. Think Monday is going to be much, much worse than that.

It probably will, Friday broke a trendline from the March low. I can't give out my picks, but I will tell you that I own puts for companies in the airline and energy sectors.

**d2bets** · 05-03-20, 06:21 PM

Originally posted by guitarjosh

It probably will, Friday broke a trendline from the March low. I can't give out my picks, but I will tell you that I own puts for companies in the airline and energy sectors.

Yeah, the news of Buffet's sale is going to send shockwaves to airlines. They had already fallen 10% Friday, looking for another 10-15% Monday. AAL probably to a new low under 9.

Futures now down ~ 1.5%.

I could be spectacularly wrong, but I see Monday down 5-6%, below 2,700 on the S&P. Support level to watch this week is ~ 2,640.

**milwaukee mike** · 05-03-20, 06:25 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

Yeah, the news of Buffet's sale is going to send shockwaves to airlines. They had already fallen 10% Friday, looking for another 10-15% Monday. AAL probably to a new low under 9.

Futures now down ~ 1.5%.

I could be spectacularly wrong, but I see Monday down 5-6%, below 2,700 on the S&P. Support level to watch this week is ~ 2,640.

almost no way is the market gonna drop that much tomorrow, and almost no way are the airlines gonna drop that much

stuff is opening up at a quick pace... nascar starting in 2 weeks, churchill downs opening in 2 weeks, bars/restaurants opening all over the place... people realizing the fearmongering was way overdone

all that stuff offsets a corrupt old bastard selling some airline stocks

**d2bets** · 05-03-20, 06:38 PM

Originally posted by milwaukee mike

almost no way is the market gonna drop that much tomorrow, and almost no way are the airlines gonna drop that much

stuff is opening up at a quick pace... nascar starting in 2 weeks, churchill downs opening in 2 weeks, bars/restaurants opening all over the place... people realizing the fearmongering was way overdone

all that stuff offsets a corrupt old bastard selling some airline stocks

And there was almost now way a month ago that it would rise so much. All these openings are just on paper (people won't go do much) and probably temporary (when it results in spikes). Market got detached from reality. Market was already overvalued in Feb and due for 10% overvaluation haircut and a 15-20% coronavirus effect haircut. 3,300 - 25% = 2,475. Headed toward that very soon, perhaps within the next 2 weeks.

Plus, the Buffet effect and Mnuchin talking about putting brakes on near-term further stimulus.

**milwaukee mike** · 05-03-20, 06:54 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

And there was almost now way a month ago that it would rise so much. All these openings are just on paper (people won't go do much) and probably temporary (when it results in spikes). Market got detached from reality. Market was already overvalued in Feb and due for 10% overvaluation haircut and a 15-20% coronavirus effect haircut. 3,300 - 25% = 2,475. Headed toward that very soon, perhaps within the next 2 weeks.

Plus, the Buffet effect and Mnuchin talking about putting brakes on near-term further stimulus.

it never rose 10% in a day so i don't know what you're talking about

i told everyone that would listen to buy penn in the 3s, play in the 4s, etc etc

i've been right for over a month, and made more money than ever in my life, so why should anyone take your advice over mine?

**d2bets** · 05-03-20, 07:02 PM

Originally posted by milwaukee mike

it never rose 10% in a day so i don't know what you're talking about

i told everyone that would listen to buy penn in the 3s, play in the 4s, etc etc

i've been right for over a month, and made more money than ever in my life, so why should anyone take your advice over mine?

I never said there were 10% up days. But there were a few 6-7% up days.

Congrats on your wins, I'm happy for you. I hope you lock some profits.

Don't really care who takes my advice or not. Just shooting the shit and recording my guess.

**milwaukee mike** · 05-03-20, 07:13 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

I never said there were 10% up days. But there were a few 6-7% up days.

Congrats on your wins, I'm happy for you. I hope you lock some profits.

Don't really care who takes my advice or not. Just shooting the shit and recording my guess.

i hear you, good luck to you too

eventually we're all freaking doomed, people are too stupid to realize that gates and the globalists are gonna win... over the next 5 years (other than stealing stocks at ridiculous prices) i would rather hold physical gold and silver than any other asset class

Bill Gates

@BillGates

·
Dec 19, 2019

What’s next for our foundation? I’m particularly excited about what the next year could mean for one of the best buys in global health: vaccines.

**pavyracer** · 05-03-20, 09:37 PM

By on the dip. This market will only go up from here.

**d2bets** · 05-03-20, 09:45 PM

Originally posted by pavyracer

By on the dip. This market will only go up from here.

It's always good to "buy on the dip", the trick is knowing what the dip is. Not every down day is the dip. Friday's dip was not the one to buy. Tomorrow's dip will not be the one to buy. Gotta fall further.

**pavyracer** · 05-03-20, 09:47 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

It's always good to "buy on the dip", the trick is knowing what the dip is. Not every down day is the dip. Friday's dip was not the one to buy. Tomorrow's dip will not be the one to buy. Gotta fall further.

That's why you don't put all your eggs in the same basket. Always keep cash around so you can buy more if it drops again to average down.

**Enkhbat** · 05-03-20, 09:53 PM

I don't know if averaging down always works. Imagine someone averaged down enron when it fell like a rock.

Milwaukee mike why do you think Warren Buffet is a corrupt old bastard? Isn't he supposed to be one of the greatest investors of our time?

Also what is your current advice? should we buy more PENN?

**milwaukee mike** · 05-04-20, 09:04 AM

Originally posted by Enkhbat

I don't know if averaging down always works. Imagine someone averaged down enron when it fell like a rock.

Milwaukee mike why do you think Warren Buffet is a corrupt old bastard? Isn't he supposed to be one of the greatest investors of our time?

Also what is your current advice? should we buy more PENN?

i think a lot of weird things

if warren buffett would've just held all his cash in a money market fund, he would have about the same wealth as he has now... so what made him such a great investor? he took advantage of inherited wealth and inflation

short list of buffett's corruption...
illegal acquisition of wesco
antitrust charges in buffalo news takeover
salomon brothers shenanigans (and $290 million fine paid by buffett)
general re/aig shenanigans (and $92 million fine paid by buffett)
exploitative dealings in the financial crisis 2008/2009 (goldman sachs/etc)