Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[Slurry Pumper]

OK, NVDA didn't make it down to the $671 spot and is hovering at the $680 spot after falling this morning. So it fell didn't bounce and is hanging on to a spot just above my stated buying price. That means no trade even if it comes into the price later today. Too risky, it has a good probability of cutting right through that price to a spot that is lower.

AAPL came right to the $180 spot on the nose and I jump on it and got out at $182.50. A quick 1% scalp trade for about an hour or so worth of work.

SPY is hanging out just above my bounce leve for this morning so no more scalp action for the same reasons NVDA is off the board.

Work is done for today, and I'll rack them up again tomorrow and see what the market brings. 1 out of 3 calls right today is pretty good believe it or not, and not getting into losing trades is half the battle.

[Slurry Pumper]

I screwed that one up, AAPL didn't make it to 180, and I put the trade in wrong as it picked it up off the open on a open market order due to me effing up the advanced trade parameters. Still got luck and got a buck out of it before it started to go south.

Sometimes I get lucky and don't lose money too. As my parameters were not met, but I accidentally got in anyway, and rode it a little way to make some lunch money.

[d2bets]

Nice post-drop rebound from NVDA. Up over 6% AH.

Edit: now up $55 (over 8%). Basically back where it was a couple days ago, if it holds.

4q revenue/profit:
2022: 6.06 billion/1.41 billion
2023: 22.1 billion/12.29 billion

[d2bets]

NVDA up only like 15%. Ho hum.
Over 250 billion increase in market cap today.

[Madison]

And so where are these people going such that they sure don't seem to be affecting the govmt #'s.

In stark contrast to the official numbers from the U.S. Bureau of LaborStatistics, the experience on the ground is disheartening.
Since January 1, 2023, more than 5,487 companies have announced massivelayoffs.
According to news reports, the number of layoffs in the U.S. increased 98% from2022 to 2023. A whopping 721,677 people received pink slips last year.
And clearly, things aren’t looking much better this year. It seems newheadlines appear weekly about the latest wave of restructuring andretrenchments.

[homie1975]

[d2bets]

And so where are these people going such that they sure don't seem to be affecting the govmt #'s.

In stark contrast to the official numbers from the U.S. Bureau of LaborStatistics, the experience on the ground is disheartening.
Since January 1, 2023, more than 5,487 companies have announced massivelayoffs.
According to news reports, the number of layoffs in the U.S. increased 98% from2022 to 2023. A whopping 721,677 people received pink slips last year.
And clearly, things aren’t looking much better this year. It seems newheadlines appear weekly about the latest wave of restructuring andretrenchments.

That's the normal course of things. And new jobs are being created. The job market is good. If you aren't lazy and have some skill, you can get a good job easy. There are some people invested in wanting to make the economy and everything else seem terrible, but it most certainly is not.

[homie1975]

That's the normal course of things. And new jobs are being created. The job market is good. If you aren't lazy and have some skill, you can get a good job easy. There are some people invested in wanting to make the economy and everything else seem terrible, but it most certainly is not.

yep, and 98% of their commentary is POLITICALLY motivated.

[d2bets]

yep, and 98% of their commentary is POLITICALLY motivated.

I've grown to hate politics. Completely unnecessarily divisive and corrosive. Of course it's largely the fault of one person, but if I say that then I'm getting political. It's not even politics though, it's personal politics. People used to be able to disagree, yet still have shared values and get along. Maybe someday it'll return. /rant

[homie1975]

I've grown to hate politics. Completely unnecessarily divisive and corrosive. Of course it's largely the fault of one person, but if I say that then I'm getting political. It's not even politics though, it's personal politics. People used to be able to disagree, yet still have shared values and get along. Maybe someday it'll return. /rant

they can root all they want against #46 but the truth is the POTUS has very little do w how the stock market does, even #45.

but i can see through them.

they pipe up when the market tanks, but are nowhere to be found when the market soars.

it is pretty obvious.

[homie1975]

coming up on the 6 year anniversary of this thread starting (03/06/2018).

[Madison]

coming up on the 6 year anniversary of this thread starting (03/06/2018).

Congrats, however "What have you done for me lately".

I spend endless hours with older friends who are fixated dwelling on "Glory Days' trying to focus them. What was was!!, Personally, I can't change the past so I try endlessly to focus on tomorrow and thereafter. Maybe it's just getting old?

All my best!!

[Slurry Pumper]

Another week and another week dominated by a few stocks in the market. I know it all looks good now, but the breadth isn't what I would like. Will it broaden out? who knows. I had my chance to buy NVDA this week right before the earnings but I didn't because of my discipline wont allow me to buy a stock and hold over the earnings report. This one was a tough one to overlook as at $663 coming into the last hour of trading was at my low number for a scalp, it closed today at $788. That's 18% since which was just Wednesday for Christ sake, and I could of had it for just overnight and sold for $775.
Oh well, I've been burnt so many times before trying that trade that I just couldn't pull the trigger on it. Gotta shake that off and look for other trades.
Congrats to all that own the NVDA, but remember the high flyers from 2001.

[guitarjosh]

That's the normal course of things. And new jobs are being created. The job market is good. If you aren't lazy and have some skill, you can get a good job easy. There are some people invested in wanting to make the economy and everything else seem terrible, but it most certainly is not.

The job market is showing signs of stress. If you look at the Establishment Survey and the average hours worked, job equivalents (my term for hours worked + total jobs) have fallen since September. March 8 non farm payrolls will be important, if that trend continues, I think it's safe to say we're in the early signs of a recession. If March rebounds we probably just had a soft period.

[homie1975]

YoY inflation = 2.8% now.

stocks, bitcoin, ethereum, set up beautifully.

[d2bets]

YoY inflation = 2.8% now.

stocks, bitcoin, ethereum, set up beautifully.

Yes, and cash still pays 5% easy too. Total sweet spot, for now.

[Madison]

YoY inflation = 2.8% now.

stocks, bitcoin, ethereum, set up beautifully.

(Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of underlying inflation rose in January at the fastest pace in nearly a year, helping explain policymakers’ patient approach to start cutting interest rates.
The so-called core personal consumption expenditures price index, which strips out the volatile food and energy components, increased 0.4% from December, data out Thursday showed. From a year ago, it advanced 2.8%. Economists consider this to be a better gauge of underlying inflation than the overall index.

[Madison]

Fed officials have repeatedly said they have yet to reach a level of confidence that inflation is sustainably cooling, and Thursday’s report likely reinforces that view in the near term. Policymakers insist it’s too soon to start cutting interest rates, and they’ll continue to monitor incoming data to guide policy.

[homie1975]

(Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of underlying inflation rose in January at the fastest pace in nearly a year, helping explain policymakers’ patient approach to start cutting interest rates.
The so-called core personal consumption expenditures price index, which strips out the volatile food and energy components, increased 0.4% from December, data out Thursday showed. From a year ago, it advanced 2.8%. Economists consider this to be a better gauge of underlying inflation than the overall index.

the same economists who ALL predicted a recession in 2023.

they were DEAD wrong.

[Slurry Pumper]

Well, I'm not calling for a recession just yet, but I will say that the charts are showing me that the markets are at a possible inflection point again. The markets breadth keeps getting more narrow with like 3 to 4 stocks driving the train here.

[homie1975]

Well, I'm not calling for a recession just yet, but I will say that the charts are showing me that the markets are at a possible inflection point again. The markets breadth keeps getting more narrow with like 3 to 4 stocks driving the train here.

i am seeing more and more sectors participating.

i am seeing this broadening out.

take a look at the transports.

they tell a big story.

transports bullish is typically a very good sign for the economy.

[homie1975]

Consumer sentiment softens at the end of February, but stays at 32-month high

[Slurry Pumper]

i am seeing more and more sectors participating.

i am seeing this broadening out.

take a look at the transports.

they tell a big story.

transports bullish is typically a very good sign for the economy.

I'd like to see the transports break out above 16730. I applaud IWM breaking out above 200. I'd also like to see the XLF bust out above 41.75. All of these things happen and yes it is rally some more. If they get rejected, it will be a turning point for the markets. Not a death nail just maybe a cooling off period or a taking time off the clock while gaining energy. It could also mean a falling away, so I'm just saying that its not all full steam ahead. There are issues that must be over come.

[Slurry Pumper]

So here is one of my concerns and reason for saying we are at interesting levels in the market. As usual, I'll post a chart of the SPY, and it is a chart of the rally we have been in for the last 6 months, so it is a 6 month chart with daily candle sticks.



The arrows represent where the SPY price either touched or came pretty close to the boundaries of a rising wedge the market has been in and respecting the boundaries of during the entire rally. As you can see the zone keeps getting more narrow by the day, and as it stands now, a break out either way is totally in the cards as per the usual turn of events of typical market activity. Currently the zone is from 502.75 on the down side to 514.50 on the up side.

So I will be watching to see if the SPY can indeed break out above the 514.50 spot on a daily close before I think about adding extra cash on the bull side. Ideally price would break out above on a violent move up kind of like Friday's action before coming back to retest the trend line as support before taking off and giving me a good chance to hop aboard the continuation of the rally.

On the down side, there are a few spots to look at: 1st 509ish is where we started just Friday, and getting below that may be a sign or signal that things are coming back, 2nd the 503 spot represents the top of the gap from 2/22 and the trend line. Then there is the 3rd spot $497.30 which is the close on 2/21. The 497.30 is my last gasp of hope line and below that tells me that a sharper pullback is in the cards with some nasty red candles in my estimation.

I'm not saying the cliff is here, I'm just trying to be the referee here so I can call where my money goes.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I normally stay in the BTC thread. Have had some discussion of Lithium stocks like LAC and LITOF.

What is up with this stock? +33% today!

https://client.schwab.com/app/research/#/stocks/LITOF

[Madison]

I normally stay in the BTC thread. Have had some discussion of Lithium stocks like LAC and LITOF.

What is up with this stock? +33% today!

https://client.schwab.com/app/research/#/stocks/LITOF

Lithium been bludgeoned. I just bought more LAC Thu/Fri last week. ALB/SQM already moved YTD. I'm adding to all my Lithium related holdings. 2 or 3 year window, but this will be back strong upcoming.

[Madison]

Right now, the typical S&P 500 company is trading at about 33 times forward-looking earnings. Historically, S&P 500 companies have traded at about 15 times earnings in more normal markets.

FYI!

[Madison]

I normally stay in the BTC thread. Have had some discussion of Lithium stocks like LAC and LITOF.

What is up with this stock? +33% today!

https://client.schwab.com/app/research/#/stocks/LITOF

Chucky , give us your username and password so we can access the article. LOL.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Chucky , give us your username and password so we can access the article. LOL.

Haha. I'm sorry. Just check out the LITOF stock ticker. Was +33% this morning.

Yes, been re-upping some of my LAC. I'm OK with it having gone down, looks cheap to me. And I'm OK with any run-out.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Right now, the typical S&P 500 company is trading at about 33 times forward-looking earnings. Historically, S&P 500 companies have traded at about 15 times earnings in more normal markets.

FYI!

This is a great post. People have to be sniffing out that change is in the air.

[Madison]

Haha. I'm sorry. Just check out the LITOF stock ticker. Was +33% this morning.

Yes, been re-upping some of my LAC. I'm OK with it having gone down, looks cheap to me. And I'm OK with any run-out.

Let's get it bud!!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Let's get it bud!!

Hoping. I'm a believer in BUY LOW. Have been adding metals whenever I see a dip in price.

You getting in on this Crypto wave? In the BTC thread, we're staunch believers in the coming Bull run. Very happy with how I set up my allocation.

[d2bets]

Nvidia $870 lmao. Keep on going, I wanna retire early.

[Slurry Pumper]

Well yesterday the SPY price went from the top of the rising wedge all the way to the bottom limits of that wedge. Its a pretty tight situation but the movement was contained within. We will have a break out one way or the other, with the range now at $504.75 to $516.25 give or take on either level a couple of dimes. Well old Jerome comes out to play today and he comes on the playing field that usually puts the market on attention.
How about that gold? I don't hear anyone saying anything about gold hitting the all time high. The disrespect for this metal is funny. All I see is how the Bitcoin is hitting its high. Then I witness how it promptly dropped 10 grand. Its a speculative asset and not a storage of value until it can stabilize a little bit more in my eyes.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

LITOF must be a very small market cap. -8% today.

LAAC +6% today, BTW.