Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

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  • d2bets
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 08-10-05
    • 39990

    #13931
    Originally posted by homie1975
    FED's Waller statements released that Rate cuts should be well thought out and perhaps less in total basis points or total cuts, and the market reacts negatively.

    Nothing system or of very much concern that I see.

    I expect strong earnings reports for Q4 and forward guidance..........
    Yeah, cuts will happen, but very gradual and cautious. Partly because it isn't "needed". There is no need to go hold wild with cuts. The economy is doing fine. This is a good thing.
    Comment
    • guitarjosh
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 12-25-07
      • 5763

      #13932
      Originally posted by d2bets
      Yeah, cuts will happen, but very gradual and cautious. Partly because it isn't "needed". There is no need to go hold wild with cuts. The economy is doing fine. This is a good thing.
      Just more in a long line of bad news:

      Empire State Manufacturing Index is at the 3rd lowest reading on record. The first 2 were April & May of 2020



      The economy lost 1.5 million full time jobs last month. The last time we had less was January 2023.

      Comment
      • homie1975
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 12-24-13
        • 15452

        #13933
        yes there is definitely a negative sentiment in the air right now after the market euphoria of 2023 however Q4 earnings are about to report and they are very likely going to be blowout numbers combined with some cautious guidance so it feels like it will be a sideways trading market the next -3 mos.
        Comment
        • homie1975
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 12-24-13
          • 15452

          #13934
          Originally posted by guitarjosh
          Just more in a long line of bad news:

          Empire State Manufacturing Index is at the 3rd lowest reading on record. The first 2 were April & May of 2020



          The economy lost 1.5 million full time jobs last month. The last time we had less was January 2023.



          JOSHer
          We do have some tailwinds too, though.

          Market performance historically after a 20%+ move up in the S&P (like 2023) yields positive results the following year (2024).

          Election Years are historically good for the market especially Q3 and Q4 those years.
          Comment
          • guitarjosh
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 12-25-07
            • 5763

            #13935
            Originally posted by homie1975
            JOSHer
            We do have some tailwinds too, though.

            Market performance historically after a 20%+ move up in the S&P (like 2023) yields positive results the following year (2024).

            Election Years are historically good for the market especially Q3 and Q4 those years.
            We also have a yield curve that has been inverted for roughly 1.5 years.
            Comment
            • homie1975
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 12-24-13
              • 15452

              #13936
              Originally posted by guitarjosh
              We also have a yield curve that has been inverted for roughly 1.5 years.
              this is true, but the Bull Market climbs the Wall of Worry !
              Comment
              • Madison
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 09-16-11
                • 6425

                #13937
                ^^^ As stated many months ago, watch the 10yr. Up nearly 30 BP as I write in the last 30 days.
                Comment
                • homie1975
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 12-24-13
                  • 15452

                  #13938
                  Originally posted by Madison
                  ^^^ As stated many months ago, watch the 10yr. Up nearly 30 BP as I write in the last 30 days.
                  yes, i recall.

                  but we are in a bull cycle for over one year now.

                  at some point the yield curve is an issue, but do folks really want to try and time that like they did the past one year and got smashed shorting the market?
                  Comment
                  • Madison
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 09-16-11
                    • 6425

                    #13939
                    Originally posted by homie1975
                    yes, i recall.

                    but we are in a bull cycle for over one year now.

                    at some point the yield curve is an issue, but do folks really want to try and time that like they did the past one year and got smashed shorting the market?
                    Simply watch the SP and 10yr correlation chart. Pretty compelling. If I was more inclined/comp savvy I'd post the chart, but this is what you get.
                    Comment
                    • d2bets
                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                      • 08-10-05
                      • 39990

                      #13940
                      Originally posted by homie1975
                      yes, i recall.

                      but we are in a bull cycle for over one year now.

                      at some point the yield curve is an issue, but do folks really want to try and time that like they did the past one year and got smashed shorting the market?
                      I'm getting tired of NVDA going up every day, week, month and year. Will it ever stop?
                      Comment
                      • Madison
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 09-16-11
                        • 6425

                        #13941
                        Originally posted by d2bets
                        I'm getting tired of NVDA going up every day, week, month and year. Will it ever stop?
                        Take some profit. "nobody ever lost taking a profit". You've done amazing, don't blow it now. Lot of stocks way over valued. Just look at AMD. Couldn't find buyers at circa $107, and exploding.

                        I wish I was sharper but saw a chart this morning where they highlighted AMD/NVDA as way more overvalued than the market in 1999.

                        All my best bud. Appreciate your posts/insights.
                        Comment
                        • d2bets
                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                          • 08-10-05
                          • 39990

                          #13942
                          Originally posted by Madison
                          Take some profit. "nobody ever lost taking a profit". You've done amazing, don't blow it now. Lot of stocks way over valued. Just look at AMD. Couldn't find buyers at circa $107, and exploding.

                          I wish I was sharper but saw a chart this morning where they highlighted AMD/NVDA as way more overvalued than the market in 1999.

                          All my best bud. Appreciate your posts/insights.
                          Yeah, actually I own some in my IRA and right now I have a sell order in for most of that at $585. Still only a fraction of my overall, but I need to diversify a little. Just don't want to pay the tax on the regular holding. That stance has served me well through the ups and downs.

                          Edit: sale executed at $585. I'm already happily regretting it.
                          Last edited by d2bets; 01-19-24, 12:06 PM.
                          Comment
                          • Madison
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 09-16-11
                            • 6425

                            #13943
                            Originally posted by d2bets
                            Yeah, actually I own some in my IRA and right now I have a sell order in for most of that at $585. Still only a fraction of my overall, but I need to diversify a little. Just don't want to pay the tax on the regular holding. That stance has served me well through the ups and downs.

                            Edit: sale executed at $585. I'm already happily regretting it.
                            Don't. Flag 585. You can always buy back. You did the smart thing. Congrats on a great trade/investment!!!
                            Comment
                            • Madison
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 09-16-11
                              • 6425

                              #13944
                              There's a lot of 10x potential out there. IONQ, SYM, CRSP, DNA. Genetics and robotic's is the future. BOL!!
                              Comment
                              • d2bets
                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                • 08-10-05
                                • 39990

                                #13945
                                Originally posted by Madison
                                Don't. Flag 585. You can always buy back. You did the smart thing. Congrats on a great trade/investment!!!
                                Yeah, I mean overall that was less than 15% of my holdings. With recent life changes, it turns out NVDA now even after this is like 25% of my net worth.
                                Comment
                                • homie1975
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 12-24-13
                                  • 15452

                                  #13946
                                  Originally posted by d2bets
                                  Yeah, I mean overall that was less than 15% of my holdings. With recent life changes, it turns out NVDA now even after this is like 25% of my net worth.
                                  2er
                                  it's about 2% of my net worth

                                  so if it cuts in half it only affects 1% of my net worth

                                  if it cuts in half it affects 12.5% of yours.

                                  that is too much for my comfort.

                                  look up the Four Horsemen stocks of the late 90's and early 2000's in case you did not know them or might have forgotten (like I did).

                                  they ran the market at that time like the Magnificent 7 do now.

                                  DELL
                                  CISCO
                                  INTEL
                                  MICROSOFT

                                  only 1 out of the 4 is still a monster today.

                                  be careful Mate.
                                  Comment
                                  • homie1975
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 12-24-13
                                    • 15452

                                    #13947
                                    Go go go
                                    Comment
                                    • homie1975
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 12-24-13
                                      • 15452

                                      #13948
                                      Notable earnings this week:


                                      Tue: JnJ, RTX, LMT, NFLX, P&G, VZ, 3M, GE, TI, DB Horton


                                      Weds: AT&T, ABT Labs, Tesla!, IBM, NOW, LAM Research


                                      Thurs: UNP, SHW, INTC, ****, PYPL


                                      Fri: AXP, NFS
                                      Comment
                                      • Madison
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 09-16-11
                                        • 6425

                                        #13949
                                        Originally posted by homie1975
                                        notable earnings this week:





                                        tue: Jnj, rtx, lmt, nflx, p&g, vz, 3m, ge, ti, db horton


                                        weds: At&t, abt labs, tesla!, ibm, now, lam research


                                        thurs: Unp, shw, intc, ****, pypl


                                        fri: Axp, nfs
                                        **** = mbly ... Lidar
                                        Comment
                                        • homie1975
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 12-24-13
                                          • 15452

                                          #13950
                                          Originally posted by Madison
                                          **** = mbly ... Lidar
                                          MADder whaaaaaa ???
                                          Comment
                                          • Slurry Pumper
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 06-18-18
                                            • 2811

                                            #13951
                                            Hey yall,

                                            While I haven't been postin much, I have been playing the markets just like I always do. I thin kwe are at a point where a turn in the tape is in order real soon, or maybe even today with the gap and crap situation. I think going into the rest of the month and probably a week or so afterwards the markets on the hole are headed lower. I'm not saying that the market is going to crash and burn, but looking at my favorite indicators show me that the markets are starting to get pretty far away from the home base (20 period moving average), the transports are also telling me that things are not advantageous to gains, and some other things.
                                            Comment
                                            • homie1975
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 12-24-13
                                              • 15452

                                              #13952
                                              Originally posted by Slurry Pumper
                                              Hey yall,

                                              While I haven't been postin much, I have been playing the markets just like I always do. I thin kwe are at a point where a turn in the tape is in order real soon, or maybe even today with the gap and crap situation. I think going into the rest of the month and probably a week or so afterwards the markets on the hole are headed lower. I'm not saying that the market is going to crash and burn, but looking at my favorite indicators show me that the markets are starting to get pretty far away from the home base (20 period moving average), the transports are also telling me that things are not advantageous to gains, and some other things.
                                              i have been hearing this the last 13 mos all over the place Slurry and all i have seen is Up Up Up Up Up

                                              don't fight the tape.

                                              i don't. you should not either.
                                              Comment
                                              • Madison
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 09-16-11
                                                • 6425

                                                #13953
                                                Courtesy ... Investor Place

                                                Since World War II, there havebeen 13 previous bull markets. On average, they have lasted more than 1,700days with average stock gains of about 150%.
                                                The current bull market is less than 470 days old with gains of less than 35%.
                                                Judging by historical standards, this new bull market has a lot more runwayahead of it, both in terms of time and gains.
                                                Comment
                                                • homie1975
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 12-24-13
                                                  • 15452

                                                  #13954
                                                  Originally posted by Madison
                                                  Courtesy ... Investor Place

                                                  Since World War II, there havebeen 13 previous bull markets. On average, they have lasted more than 1,700days with average stock gains of about 150%.
                                                  The current bull market is less than 470 days old with gains of less than 35%.
                                                  Judging by historical standards, this new bull market has a lot more runwayahead of it, both in terms of time and gains.
                                                  MADder you said it.

                                                  don't fight the tape, no matter how much one hates the POTUS and wants a change, the stock market will do what the stock market will do and it is way more tied to Other things than it is the POTUS.

                                                  don't.

                                                  fight.

                                                  the.

                                                  tape.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Br00ks85
                                                    SBR Rookie
                                                    • 01-23-24
                                                    • 10

                                                    #13955
                                                    buy nintendo immediately, and hold for next years as it over takes disney.



                                                    Switch 2 will be announced soon so get in before that happens.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • guitarjosh
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 12-25-07
                                                      • 5763

                                                      #13956
                                                      Originally posted by Madison
                                                      Courtesy ... Investor Place

                                                      Since World War II, there havebeen 13 previous bull markets. On average, they have lasted more than 1,700days with average stock gains of about 150%.
                                                      The current bull market is less than 470 days old with gains of less than 35%.
                                                      Judging by historical standards, this new bull market has a lot more runwayahead of it, both in terms of time and gains.
                                                      The 3 month 10 year spread has been inverted for 15 straight months today. The Fed announced yesterday the BTFP is going away in March, we'll see what happens.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Slurry Pumper
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 06-18-18
                                                        • 2811

                                                        #13957
                                                        Originally posted by homie1975
                                                        i have been hearing this the last 13 mos all over the place Slurry and all i have seen is Up Up Up Up Up

                                                        don't fight the tape.

                                                        i don't. you should not either.
                                                        I never fight the tape, but I do read the tape, and I'm letting all the folks know that I am going to be right near the exit door for anything that should turn. I've told ya'll when the rally started last fall, and even gave the spot, now this weekend I'll be back with the tape as I read it so we can all just ride the markets. They don't just always go up or down. Sure today we got great numbers and we had a great up day again. All I'm saying is that this rally is getting long in the tooth and maybe the signs and signals are there to maybe take a little pause in the exuberance to see where things are at. I will give my case and let the cards fall where they may.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Madison
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 09-16-11
                                                          • 6425

                                                          #13958
                                                          If you want to prick Madison's nerves then speak to the National Debt. The only way out is inflation and kiss your hard earned $$ goodbye. How many foreign countries, last I read Turkey 65% inflation. I'm very sad that this is what I'm passing along to my grandkids.

                                                          A debt of $34 trillion is more than the combined GDP of the top five global economies after the U.S. — China ($17.9 trillion), Japan ($4.2 trillion), Germany ($4.0 trillion), India ($3.4 trillion) and the United Kingdom ($3.0 trillion) — according to the World Bank.Total U.S. debt has more than doubled since 2013 and is up nearly $3 trillion since the government suspended the debt ceiling in June — averting what would have been a first-ever default with just two days to spare.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Slurry Pumper
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 06-18-18
                                                            • 2811

                                                            #13959
                                                            Please don't even get me started with the national debt situation. Every time I look at that it just steers me to by more chunks of gold for my degenerate kids. Its better than giving them money as they just can't go spend a 5 or 10 oz chunk of it that easy. 1st they have to convert it then go waste it.
                                                            Anyway this post may be one of the all time longest, but its been a while since I really broke down the charts so here we go.
                                                            This time we will start with the Nasdaq (QQQ) and check out the 2 year chart with weekly candles.


                                                            The yellow lines represent where the price action moved pretty far away from the 20 period moving average (orange line). I like to call the 20 period moving average as home base, and price action doesn't keep moving away from the 20 period moving average for that long. If you look at the arrows each time the price got away from the moving average, either price comes back to the average or the price just hangs out and lets the moving average catch up to the price before making a further move.
                                                            This week the Q's made a doji, or what some people call a graveyard doji candle which can be a signal of a direction change. Take a look at them stochastic lines which have been in the overbought zone for a while now. That in itself isn't a big deal as it can be there for quite a while as indicated just last year when they stayed there from March until August last year. If however the MACD is also in this area which it is, it is another signal of a change in direction. Finally, for this chart anyways, take a look at that dashed yellow line right where the doji candle is located. This tread line has been holding steady as either resistance or support for more than a year now. That doesn' really mean anything, but it is a piece to take note of.

                                                            Expanding out to the 5 Year chart with Monthly candles, shows the phenomenon of the 20 period moving average again, with an example of how the stochastic lines can be in the overbought zone for quite a while, but when we have a stochastic in the overbought or oversold condition with the MACD in the extremes along with a price that is pretty far away from the 20 period moving average, the price direction reverses or atleast hangs out and waits for the 20 period moving average to catch up.
                                                            Moving on to the SMH 2 Year chart with weekly candles which is touted as a proxy for the Nasdaq shows a similar chart to the QQQs as one might expect for a so called proxy.




                                                            In this case we see where the price moved once again away from the 20 Period moving average with the stochastic lines being overbought for a while as the 20 period moving average moved closer to the price along with the MACD as shown by #1. In this case price waited around and didn't change direction, but also al l3 criteria where anot satisfied. Price was not far away from the 20 period moving average, the stochastics where overbought and the MACD was close to the extreme. In this case 2 outta 3 doesn't cut it to tease a RIP Meatloaf song.

                                                            OK, enough of the Daq, lets move onto the SPY 2 Year Weekly chart but break it up into another post.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Slurry Pumper
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 06-18-18
                                                              • 2811

                                                              #13960
                                                              The SPY 2 Year chart with weekly candles

                                                              OK over on the SPY things look a little toppy in my opinion, but I will point out that the signals of a change in direction aren't as pronounced. Sure there is that 20 period moving average thing with the stochastics and MACD situation going on. We also have a little market symmetry going on perhaps as this week is the end of a 13 week cycle after a previous 13 week cycle where the direction was predominately down. Just another layer to add the the stack of signals. Its been a great run since that day I told you all to buy and wait. You know me, I never do that, but in late October last year, that is exactly what I did.


                                                              Moving into the SPY 5 Year chart with monthly candle closes shows an area that disproves my theory as there is a 20 period moving average pretty far away from the price, overbought stachastics, and a extreme MACD condition. It kept that going for quite a few months before turning south so currently we are in the same condition but its only been a couple of months, and this chart isn't showing any signs of a change. This just proves that all indicators are not absolute and a little interpretation is needed. That's a layer of stuff in the bullish camp to put on the table. Also the SPY is above the highest high of all time and taking a look at the nice round number of 500. The markets like nice big round numbers and the closer the action gets to them the more magnetic they become.

                                                              Well with things looking so rosy on the SPY, lets take a gander on what been happening for the last week on the 5 Day chart with hourly closes.

                                                              The SPY was asleep for the first couple of days before taking a gap up open on Wednesday only to give most of it back by the end of the day. Then on Thursday it did pretty much the same thing. Finally on Friday the market started creeping up, but once it hit that 489ish level as it did for the previous 2 days, it stalled and couldn't finish the week above that level. So there you have it for next week the 1st level the SPY needs to eclipse and stay above for the bullish behavior to continue in my opinion. If the SPY can't break above 489 and keep it for a daily close, that would be a signal of a top. Not a huge signal of a crash or anything just a little signal of difficulty rising above. Remember we have that 500 that is so close by and above 490 things will quickly get to the 500 mark. We have the FED coming out next week to lie to us along with earnings coming from some big players. Anything remotely good, or even slightly less bad than expected will move the market in a direction that it wants to go which I have to say is up at this point.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Slurry Pumper
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 06-18-18
                                                                • 2811

                                                                #13961
                                                                So far it looks like a little divergence between the QQQs and the SPY is going on. How about those small and mid caps or the IWM which is my favorite market indicator. Once again we'll start with the 2 Year chart with Weekly candles.

                                                                You can see that the IWM has been in a battle to reach the 200 level for the last couple of years. It eclipsed that level just a few weeks ago to give its backers a nice Christmas gift only to witness a pretty nice break down for 3 weeks before trying to eclipse the 200 level pretty much all of last week. It couldn't do it but it has yet to break down. That's yet another level to look for next week as 200 on the IWM will be an important indicator of what is to come.

                                                                What the hell lets take a gander and the IWM 5 Year chart with monthly candles.



                                                                You can see the IWM has been range bound for the better part of the last 2 years now with 200 being the top and around 165 as the bottom. Recently in Nov and Dec there was a large break up candle that went all the way to the 200 level then in Jan so far (still 2 days until it closes) there was a pullback and a little recovery. This means the jury is still out and we'll have to wait and see what happens here. Stochastic line are pretty far apart and point up which is good, MACD isn't in the extreme, and the 20 period moving average isn't too far away from home base.

                                                                OK time for a break and a beer or 2. I'll be back with yet more crap in an attempt to monopolize and entire page of charts that will take you a while to scroll through.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Madison
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 09-16-11
                                                                  • 6425

                                                                  #13962
                                                                  Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings Inc. (DNA)

                                                                  Cathie Wood's purchase of 731,000 shares of DNA on Jan. 17 of this year for inclusion in ARKK caught the eye of many investors. When she followed that up by buying an additional 755,000 shares for the fund two days later, interest in this unique company began to climb.
                                                                  DNA utilizes advanced gene splicing and gene editing techniques to literally reprogram the cells of organisms and produce useful and beneficial products. The applications of its technology ranges from novel therapeutics for humans and animals to enhancing food ingredients to helping develop clean energy sources.

                                                                  Their customers are pharmaceutical companies, the agricultural industry, energy companies, chemical manufactures and food processing firms.
                                                                  With her recent purchases, Cathie Wood's ARKK holds more than 124 million shares of DNA valued at just over $154 million. DNA represents 2% of that $9.3 billion ETF.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Slurry Pumper
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 06-18-18
                                                                    • 2811

                                                                    #13963
                                                                    Well, I had a bwer an then that turned into a couple of hits off the bowl, and before I knew it I was in a full fledged getting hammered scenario yesterday. Let me put up a few more things before football hits today.

                                                                    To look at the overall markets, you have to look at the financials because things don't typically move with out the participation of the banks.

                                                                    This is the same 2 year chart of the XLF with weekly candle sticks.



                                                                    Once again I marked up when the 20 period moving average (orange line) got far away from the price action, and at the end of the last week, we again have a situation where the stochastic lines are overbought, the MACD is extreme, and the 20 period moving average is far away.
                                                                    Look at that run since last October, after doing the math if you were so lucky as to catch the bottom, that was a 23% move, and redonkulous percentage if you play options.

                                                                    Moving on to the 5 year chart with monthly candle closes.


                                                                    You can see that the candle from this month, which still has a couple of days to go, is right at a level of pretty good resistance. The last time the XLF was at this level, it played around with the $38.50ish spot for a year as shown with the yellow line. We do have to take note however of the stochastic lines still pointing up and not being overbought with the lines pretty far apart, all bullish.

                                                                    Lets sniff out the VIX index on the same 2 year chart with weekly candle closes.


                                                                    I don't know if I've seen the VIX this low since the China virus hitting the world, and as the saying goes when the VIX is high you buy, when its low you go.

                                                                    All in all, things don't look that bad on the charts, there is no imminent danger that can be pointed to on the horizon that warrants an impending doom. I do think that the markets as a whole have had a nice run and a pullback would be healthy at this point because of the 20 period moving average being so far away from the price on many indicator charts. Next week we get the Fed coming out and while there is a possibility the SPY gets goosed to the 500 spot, if it is reached I would be a buyer of monthly PUT options. Generally, I'll be playing it light here as the likelihood of continuing to rise is more risky than a probable stalling or pullback.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Madison
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 09-16-11
                                                                      • 6425

                                                                      #13964
                                                                      Originally posted by Madison
                                                                      Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings Inc. (DNA)

                                                                      Cathie Wood's purchase of 731,000 shares of DNA on Jan. 17 of this year for inclusion in ARKK caught the eye of many investors. When she followed that up by buying an additional 755,000 shares for the fund two days later, interest in this unique company began to climb.
                                                                      DNA utilizes advanced gene splicing and gene editing techniques to literally reprogram the cells of organisms and produce useful and beneficial products. The applications of its technology ranges from novel therapeutics for humans and animals to enhancing food ingredients to helping develop clean energy sources.

                                                                      Their customers are pharmaceutical companies, the agricultural industry, energy companies, chemical manufactures and food processing firms.
                                                                      With her recent purchases, Cathie Wood's ARKK holds more than 124 million shares of DNA valued at just over $154 million. DNA represents 2% of that $9.3 billion ETF.
                                                                      Gentlemen, the future is agriculture and ones ability to satisfy America's food needs. The industry as a whole is surging toward genetically engeneerid/altered veg/prod. Indoor farms and genetically engineered food is coming like a tidal wave. LMK if anyone has any other constructive thoughts/ideas.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Madison
                                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                        • 09-16-11
                                                                        • 6425

                                                                        #13965
                                                                        Originally posted by Slurry Pumper
                                                                        Well, I had a bwer an then that turned into a couple of hits off the bowl, and before I knew it I was in a full fledged getting hammered scenario yesterday. Let me put up a few more things before football hits today.

                                                                        To look at the overall markets, you have to look at the financials because things don't typically move with out the participation of the banks.

                                                                        This is the same 2 year chart of the XLF with weekly candle sticks.



                                                                        Once again I marked up when the 20 period moving average (orange line) got far away from the price action, and at the end of the last week, we again have a situation where the stochastic lines are overbought, the MACD is extreme, and the 20 period moving average is far away.
                                                                        Look at that run since last October, after doing the math if you were so lucky as to catch the bottom, that was a 23% move, and redonkulous percentage if you play options.

                                                                        Moving on to the 5 year chart with monthly candle closes.


                                                                        You can see that the candle from this month, which still has a couple of days to go, is right at a level of pretty good resistance. The last time the XLF was at this level, it played around with the $38.50ish spot for a year as shown with the yellow line. We do have to take note however of the stochastic lines still pointing up and not being overbought with the lines pretty far apart, all bullish.

                                                                        Lets sniff out the VIX index on the same 2 year chart with weekly candle closes.


                                                                        I don't know if I've seen the VIX this low since the China virus hitting the world, and as the saying goes when the VIX is high you buy, when its low you go.

                                                                        All in all, things don't look that bad on the charts, there is no imminent danger that can be pointed to on the horizon that warrants an impending doom. I do think that the markets as a whole have had a nice run and a pullback would be healthy at this point because of the 20 period moving average being so far away from the price on many indicator charts. Next week we get the Fed coming out and while there is a possibility the SPY gets goosed to the 500 spot, if it is reached I would be a buyer of monthly PUT options. Generally, I'll be playing it light here as the likelihood of continuing to rise is more risky than a probable stalling or pullback.
                                                                        Dude been a long time since I enjoyed a similar high. I tend to get very finite via past history. At least for me sometimes you need to bring your much apprecciated help, back down to those of us normal beings , ability to digest.

                                                                        Hopefully the couch is in your immediate plans for Sunday. LOL
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