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  • milwaukee mike
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 08-22-07
    • 26914

    #12461
    Originally posted by d2bets
    Seems to be based on expectation that California will reject Prop 27. Why??? Cal residents are actually going to vote against getting sports betting? Bizarre.

    Cali a massive market. Huge problem if it doesn't happen.
    because the scummy tribal casinos have prop 26 on the ballot as well... so people will think it's a situation where "ok i'll vote for it but with all the restrictions"... if it was just prop 27 then i think it would pass, but given a choice between 2, most non-gamblers who are also cowards and morons that follow the tribal ads/propaganda will take prop 26 yes and prop 27 no
    Comment
    • d2bets
      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
      • 08-10-05
      • 39994

      #12462
      Originally posted by milwaukee mike
      because the scummy tribal casinos have prop 26 on the ballot as well... so people will think it's a situation where "ok i'll vote for it but with all the restrictions"... if it was just prop 27 then i think it would pass, but given a choice between 2, most non-gamblers who are also cowards and morons that follow the tribal ads/propaganda will take prop 26 yes and prop 27 no
      So then there will only be sportsbooks run by tribal casinos? No Draftkings, Fanduel, MGM, etc?

      This is just such a tough business. Limited states, huge tax rates, bettors addicted to promos, competition. I'm afraid it's going to end up being 3 or 4 books and everyone else folds. And what happens when all of the loser shmucks finally realize they'll never win and throw in the towel? Going to make it harder an harder on the pros. Draftkings and Fanduel are so easy to beat it's mind-boggling. I just can't believe they'll let me do this in perpetuity. I need as many options as possible to spread around my winnings.
      Comment
      • milwaukee mike
        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
        • 08-22-07
        • 26914

        #12463
        Originally posted by d2bets
        So then there will only be sportsbooks run by tribal casinos? No Draftkings, Fanduel, MGM, etc?

        This is just such a tough business. Limited states, huge tax rates, bettors addicted to promos, competition. I'm afraid it's going to end up being 3 or 4 books and everyone else folds. And what happens when all of the loser shmucks finally realize they'll never win and throw in the towel? Going to make it harder an harder on the pros. Draftkings and Fanduel are so easy to beat it's mind-boggling. I just can't believe they'll let me do this in perpetuity. I need as many options as possible to spread around my winnings.
        that's correct... just like the tribals here in wisconsin that bribe anyone and everyone to get what they want... absolutely ridiculous that there is 1 casino in all of southeastern wisconsin, and they no longer even have a poker room, simulcast, bingo... there's no competition so they don't care, and the dummies around here keep giving potawatomi net profits of $1 million/day

        a terrible casino in milwaukee shouldn't be able to make more money than the biggest and best in vegas

        no idea how long dk/fd/etc can keep giving promos and being easy to beat... even 10-15 years ago there were tons of decent online sportsbook choices that would give 100% bonuses over and over, then it just kind of drifted away for the most part
        Comment
        • homie1975
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 12-24-13
          • 15452

          #12464
          3 big items of the micro and macro variety hanging overhead which would typically mean another sell-off day but it is not happening at high volume quite yet:

          1. jobs report too hot. we saw what happened this past Friday. selling continues but not nearly the levels of the past two fridays.

          2. putin is on tilt now which has the russia-ukraine war at highest russian shelling since the beginning of the war back in february.

          3. china and taiwan tensions which was featured on 60 mins last night.
          Comment
          • trobin31
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 01-09-14
            • 9853

            #12465
            Originally posted by d2bets
            But won't the market bottom beforehand because somebody knows something, but it isn't the average Joe? Once the pivot is known, it will be too late.
            I guess to be more specific I would like to see Fed start to breath about a pivot, transports(IYT) break up through major weekly moving averages and bond yields puke hard, until then I really just don’t see how the market rebounds, personally, based on my observations and reading/listening closely to people with esoteric knowledge about political machinations, I believe we are in for some of the hardest years from a geopolitical and macroeconomic standpoint…I don’t know what’s coming but it’s pretty clear in the charts it’s gonna be bad and I would be prepared for a worse case scenario.
            Comment
            • homie1975
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 12-24-13
              • 15452

              #12466
              Tug of war going on today between sellers and buyers (intentionally flipped the order).

              Imo this is a good sign for bulls considering what we saw last Friday and the macro event of the Crimea bridge blow up over the weekend causing Putin to step up his game.
              Comment
              • guitarjosh
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 12-25-07
                • 5774

                #12467
                Originally posted by homie1975
                Josher, All of this is easier said than done for the average joe passive retail investor like me.

                stock market hell in 2007? the true bottom was March 2009.

                let's do an experiment:

                let's pretend i am sitting in cash right now. all cash.

                and instead of buying incrementally into positions right now, or lowering my cost base like i am, i am sitting in cash and waiting to try and time a bottom.

                when should i buy? where is the bottom?

                you or anyone else, please tell me where the bottom is, when it happens.

                or maybe it already has?
                Start looking for divergences under the hood. Junk bonds tend to change trend before stocks. When junk bonds start making higher lows, you're probably reaching bottom, and that's when you DCA.
                Comment
                • homie1975
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 12-24-13
                  • 15452

                  #12468
                  Originally posted by guitarjosh
                  Start looking for divergences under the hood. Junk bonds tend to change trend before stocks. When junk bonds start making higher lows, you're probably reaching bottom, and that's when you DCA.
                  Josher how strong is the correlation and how did they look in the range between July 2007 and July 2009? (we know the true bottom was March 2009).

                  Also, you and I like to look at the inversion of the 10 Year Treasury Yield as a harbinger of a recession. it happened back in Aug 2019 and was a fake out.

                  then it happened this past March, then went back up and now then crossed again in July.

                  it's so hard to know just how accurate these correlations are.
                  Comment
                  • guitarjosh
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 12-25-07
                    • 5774

                    #12469
                    Originally posted by homie1975
                    Josher how strong is the correlation and how did they look in the range between July 2007 and July 2009? (we know the true bottom was March 2009).

                    Also, you and I like to look at the inversion of the 10 Year Treasury Yield as a harbinger of a recession. it happened back in Aug 2019 and was a fake out.

                    then it happened this past March, then went back up and now then crossed again in July.

                    it's so hard to know just how accurate these correlations are.
                    Non DRIP adjusted MHCAX topped out at $6.60 in Feb of 2007 and hit $6.59 in April and May. It hit $4.12 in December 2008 and $4.26 in March of 2009.

                    I like the 1-30 year spread, it has never had a false positive (it wasn't inverted in 2019) and there has never been a recession without it inverting since the invention of the 30 year.
                    Comment
                    • homie1975
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 12-24-13
                      • 15452

                      #12470
                      MHCAX is at $4.85 as of 10/7.

                      Josher what do you think.
                      Comment
                      • homie1975
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 12-24-13
                        • 15452

                        #12471
                        Comment
                        • KVB
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 05-29-14
                          • 74817

                          #12472
                          Yeah, that 1 yr and 30 yr spread has been flipped conistently since August 1st and off and on two weeks before that.

                          I made a quick graph from here...



                          Comment
                          • JIBBBY
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 12-10-09
                            • 83686

                            #12473
                            401k's in the shitter! Stock market will tank again with next interest rate hike announcement which is coming. Prepare to lose cash!
                            Comment
                            • chico2663
                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                              • 09-02-10
                              • 36915

                              #12474
                              Good thing you get s.s.I. For being a dumb ass.
                              Comment
                              • guitarjosh
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 12-25-07
                                • 5774

                                #12475
                                Originally posted by homie1975
                                MHCAX is at $4.85 as of 10/7.

                                Josher what do you think.
                                9% of the stocks on the S&P 100 are above their 50 & 200 day MAs, so I wouldn't go short here. That being said, I doubt we're anywhere near a long-term bottom.
                                Comment
                                • jjgold
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 07-20-05
                                  • 388179

                                  #12476
                                  There are no good buys

                                  We are in dark times

                                  People chasing bottoms getting destroyed
                                  Comment
                                  • JIBBBY
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 12-10-09
                                    • 83686

                                    #12477
                                    Stocks about to get rocked again with next interest rate hike announcement.

                                    Thank you Joe Biden and your spending and growing inflation act! Investors pull back when rate hikes keep climbing to try and combat inflation. It's a no win scenario!
                                    Comment
                                    • RangeFinder
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 10-27-16
                                      • 8041

                                      #12478
                                      Originally posted by JIBBBY
                                      Stocks about to get rocked again with next interest rate hike announcement.

                                      Thank you Joe Biden and your spending and growing inflation act! Investors pull back when rate hikes keep climbing to try and combat inflation. It's a no win scenario!
                                      Jibs,

                                      The rate hike is already baked in. There will soon be a shift toward tech as soon as the fed relaxes their position. I think it happens sooner than most think.
                                      Comment
                                      • Yulia74
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 08-28-18
                                        • 1907

                                        #12479
                                        Comment
                                        • d2bets
                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                          • 08-10-05
                                          • 39994

                                          #12480
                                          Originally posted by RangeFinder
                                          Jibs,

                                          The rate hike is already baked in. There will soon be a shift toward tech as soon as the fed relaxes their position. I think it happens sooner than most think.
                                          Of course the fed will eventually relax, but when? They are bound and determined to not pull back too early.
                                          Comment
                                          • ex50warrior
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 10-10-09
                                            • 3820

                                            #12481
                                            Powell's stuck between a rock and a hard place. No easy solution.
                                            Comment
                                            • milwaukee mike
                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                              • 08-22-07
                                              • 26914

                                              #12482
                                              Originally posted by ex50warrior
                                              Powell's stuck between a rock and a hard place. No easy solution.
                                              when your only tool is a hammer, everything looks like a nail... and we're getting nailed and hammered!

                                              the fed creates bubbles and then crushes them, nothing new, except this time they're really destroying everything... with the bond market getting crushed as well, so many pension funds are gonna be broke
                                              Comment
                                              • homie1975
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 12-24-13
                                                • 15452

                                                #12483
                                                holy BEAR rally ??
                                                Comment
                                                • homie1975
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 12-24-13
                                                  • 15452

                                                  #12484
                                                  the market is dying to rally. it's dying to.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • d2bets
                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                    • 08-10-05
                                                    • 39994

                                                    #12485
                                                    Originally posted by homie1975
                                                    the market is dying to rally. it's dying to.
                                                    Happened two weeks ago Mon/Tues also. But will it hold? One of these rallies these, but might not be this one. Sometime before the end of the year.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • homie1975
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 12-24-13
                                                      • 15452

                                                      #12486
                                                      Originally posted by d2bets
                                                      Happened two weeks ago Mon/Tues also. But will it hold? One of these rallies these, but might not be this one. Sometime before the end of the year.
                                                      2er, the earnings can be the catalyst here, specifically how strong the numbers are YoY after goalposts have been moved up, and if the guidance looks anything better than BAD, I think we have some tailwinds for a decent leg up over the next 4-5 weeks.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • d2bets
                                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                        • 08-10-05
                                                        • 39994

                                                        #12487
                                                        Originally posted by homie1975
                                                        2er, the earnings can be the catalyst here, specifically how strong the numbers are YoY after goalposts have been moved up, and if the guidance looks anything better than BAD, I think we have some tailwinds for a decent leg up over the next 4-5 weeks.
                                                        That's a factor, but inflation/fed will continue to dominate and will be the catalyst for any big move in either direction. Any sign that the fed is reversing course can lead to a massive rally, perhaps to 4,200.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • milwaukee mike
                                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                          • 08-22-07
                                                          • 26914

                                                          #12488
                                                          once october is over, i'm gonna be selling out of the money puts on the vix... my thought process is always that markets don't ever crash in nov/dec... but imho they're not just gonna rally big time either
                                                          Comment
                                                          • homie1975
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 12-24-13
                                                            • 15452

                                                            #12489
                                                            Comment
                                                            • d2bets
                                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                              • 08-10-05
                                                              • 39994

                                                              #12490
                                                              Apple warns and the market yawns. Apple just isn't innovative anymore. Nobody cares. Doesn't necessarily translate.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Yulia74
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 08-28-18
                                                                • 1907

                                                                #12491
                                                                CHINA TO SELL PORK AGAIN FROM STATE RESERVES AFTER PRICE SURGE

                                                                the only country to have a 'strategic pork reserve'.

                                                                Comment
                                                                • homie1975
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 12-24-13
                                                                  • 15452

                                                                  #12492
                                                                  Originally posted by homie1975
                                                                  the market is dying to rally. it's dying to.
                                                                  Upward pressure now. Reverse of what we've seen for a long time.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • milwaukee mike
                                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                    • 08-22-07
                                                                    • 26914

                                                                    #12493
                                                                    Originally posted by homie1975
                                                                    Upward pressure now. Reverse of what we've seen for a long time.
                                                                    very volatile, just like before the 1929 crash and 1987 crash

                                                                    be careful, it's still october, and i'm hearing oct 28 is the real danger zone
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Yulia74
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 08-28-18
                                                                      • 1907

                                                                      #12494
                                                                      Golden dragon china index sinks to lowest since july 2013
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Yulia74
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 08-28-18
                                                                        • 1907

                                                                        #12495
                                                                        Hong kong's hang seng index drops to lowest close since 2009
                                                                        Comment
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