because the scummy tribal casinos have prop 26 on the ballot as well... so people will think it's a situation where "ok i'll vote for it but with all the restrictions"... if it was just prop 27 then i think it would pass, but given a choice between 2, most non-gamblers who are also cowards and morons that follow the tribal ads/propaganda will take prop 26 yes and prop 27 no
Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!
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milwaukee mikeBARRELED IN @ SBR!
- 08-22-07
- 26914
#12461Comment -
d2betsBARRELED IN @ SBR!
- 08-10-05
- 39994
#12462because the scummy tribal casinos have prop 26 on the ballot as well... so people will think it's a situation where "ok i'll vote for it but with all the restrictions"... if it was just prop 27 then i think it would pass, but given a choice between 2, most non-gamblers who are also cowards and morons that follow the tribal ads/propaganda will take prop 26 yes and prop 27 no
This is just such a tough business. Limited states, huge tax rates, bettors addicted to promos, competition. I'm afraid it's going to end up being 3 or 4 books and everyone else folds. And what happens when all of the loser shmucks finally realize they'll never win and throw in the towel? Going to make it harder an harder on the pros. Draftkings and Fanduel are so easy to beat it's mind-boggling. I just can't believe they'll let me do this in perpetuity. I need as many options as possible to spread around my winnings.Comment -
milwaukee mikeBARRELED IN @ SBR!
- 08-22-07
- 26914
#12463So then there will only be sportsbooks run by tribal casinos? No Draftkings, Fanduel, MGM, etc?
This is just such a tough business. Limited states, huge tax rates, bettors addicted to promos, competition. I'm afraid it's going to end up being 3 or 4 books and everyone else folds. And what happens when all of the loser shmucks finally realize they'll never win and throw in the towel? Going to make it harder an harder on the pros. Draftkings and Fanduel are so easy to beat it's mind-boggling. I just can't believe they'll let me do this in perpetuity. I need as many options as possible to spread around my winnings.
a terrible casino in milwaukee shouldn't be able to make more money than the biggest and best in vegas
no idea how long dk/fd/etc can keep giving promos and being easy to beat... even 10-15 years ago there were tons of decent online sportsbook choices that would give 100% bonuses over and over, then it just kind of drifted away for the most partComment -
homie1975SBR Posting Legend
- 12-24-13
- 15452
#124643 big items of the micro and macro variety hanging overhead which would typically mean another sell-off day but it is not happening at high volume quite yet:
1. jobs report too hot. we saw what happened this past Friday. selling continues but not nearly the levels of the past two fridays.
2. putin is on tilt now which has the russia-ukraine war at highest russian shelling since the beginning of the war back in february.
3. china and taiwan tensions which was featured on 60 mins last night.Comment -
trobin31SBR Hall of Famer
- 01-09-14
- 9853
#12465I guess to be more specific I would like to see Fed start to breath about a pivot, transports(IYT) break up through major weekly moving averages and bond yields puke hard, until then I really just don’t see how the market rebounds, personally, based on my observations and reading/listening closely to people with esoteric knowledge about political machinations, I believe we are in for some of the hardest years from a geopolitical and macroeconomic standpoint…I don’t know what’s coming but it’s pretty clear in the charts it’s gonna be bad and I would be prepared for a worse case scenario.Comment -
homie1975SBR Posting Legend
- 12-24-13
- 15452
#12466Tug of war going on today between sellers and buyers (intentionally flipped the order).
Imo this is a good sign for bulls considering what we saw last Friday and the macro event of the Crimea bridge blow up over the weekend causing Putin to step up his game.Comment -
guitarjoshSBR Hall of Famer
- 12-25-07
- 5774
#12467Josher, All of this is easier said than done for the average joe passive retail investor like me.
stock market hell in 2007? the true bottom was March 2009.
let's do an experiment:
let's pretend i am sitting in cash right now. all cash.
and instead of buying incrementally into positions right now, or lowering my cost base like i am, i am sitting in cash and waiting to try and time a bottom.
when should i buy? where is the bottom?
you or anyone else, please tell me where the bottom is, when it happens.
or maybe it already has?Comment -
homie1975SBR Posting Legend
- 12-24-13
- 15452
#12468
Also, you and I like to look at the inversion of the 10 Year Treasury Yield as a harbinger of a recession. it happened back in Aug 2019 and was a fake out.
then it happened this past March, then went back up and now then crossed again in July.
it's so hard to know just how accurate these correlations are.Comment -
guitarjoshSBR Hall of Famer
- 12-25-07
- 5774
#12469Josher how strong is the correlation and how did they look in the range between July 2007 and July 2009? (we know the true bottom was March 2009).
Also, you and I like to look at the inversion of the 10 Year Treasury Yield as a harbinger of a recession. it happened back in Aug 2019 and was a fake out.
then it happened this past March, then went back up and now then crossed again in July.
it's so hard to know just how accurate these correlations are.
I like the 1-30 year spread, it has never had a false positive (it wasn't inverted in 2019) and there has never been a recession without it inverting since the invention of the 30 year.Comment -
homie1975SBR Posting Legend
- 12-24-13
- 15452
#12470MHCAX is at $4.85 as of 10/7.
Josher what do you think.Comment -
homie1975SBR Posting Legend
- 12-24-13
- 15452
#12471Comment -
JIBBBYSBR Aristocracy
- 12-10-09
- 83686
#12473401k's in the shitter! Stock market will tank again with next interest rate hike announcement which is coming. Prepare to lose cash!Comment -
chico2663BARRELED IN @ SBR!
- 09-02-10
- 36915
#12474Good thing you get s.s.I. For being a dumb ass.Comment -
guitarjoshSBR Hall of Famer
- 12-25-07
- 5774
-
jjgoldSBR Aristocracy
- 07-20-05
- 388179
#12476There are no good buys
We are in dark times
People chasing bottoms getting destroyedComment -
JIBBBYSBR Aristocracy
- 12-10-09
- 83686
#12477Stocks about to get rocked again with next interest rate hike announcement.
Thank you Joe Biden and your spending and growing inflation act! Investors pull back when rate hikes keep climbing to try and combat inflation. It's a no win scenario!Comment -
RangeFinderSBR Hall of Famer
- 10-27-16
- 8041
#12478
The rate hike is already baked in. There will soon be a shift toward tech as soon as the fed relaxes their position. I think it happens sooner than most think.Comment -
Yulia74SBR MVP
- 08-28-18
- 1907
#12479Comment -
d2betsBARRELED IN @ SBR!
- 08-10-05
- 39994
#12480Of course the fed will eventually relax, but when? They are bound and determined to not pull back too early.Comment -
ex50warriorSBR MVP
- 10-10-09
- 3820
#12481Powell's stuck between a rock and a hard place. No easy solution.Comment -
milwaukee mikeBARRELED IN @ SBR!
- 08-22-07
- 26914
#12482when your only tool is a hammer, everything looks like a nail... and we're getting nailed and hammered!
the fed creates bubbles and then crushes them, nothing new, except this time they're really destroying everything... with the bond market getting crushed as well, so many pension funds are gonna be brokeComment -
homie1975SBR Posting Legend
- 12-24-13
- 15452
#12483holy BEAR rally ??Comment -
homie1975SBR Posting Legend
- 12-24-13
- 15452
#12484the market is dying to rally. it's dying to.Comment -
homie1975SBR Posting Legend
- 12-24-13
- 15452
#124862er, the earnings can be the catalyst here, specifically how strong the numbers are YoY after goalposts have been moved up, and if the guidance looks anything better than BAD, I think we have some tailwinds for a decent leg up over the next 4-5 weeks.Comment -
d2betsBARRELED IN @ SBR!
- 08-10-05
- 39994
#12487That's a factor, but inflation/fed will continue to dominate and will be the catalyst for any big move in either direction. Any sign that the fed is reversing course can lead to a massive rally, perhaps to 4,200.Comment -
milwaukee mikeBARRELED IN @ SBR!
- 08-22-07
- 26914
#12488once october is over, i'm gonna be selling out of the money puts on the vix... my thought process is always that markets don't ever crash in nov/dec... but imho they're not just gonna rally big time eitherComment -
homie1975SBR Posting Legend
- 12-24-13
- 15452
#12489Comment -
d2betsBARRELED IN @ SBR!
- 08-10-05
- 39994
#12490Apple warns and the market yawns. Apple just isn't innovative anymore. Nobody cares. Doesn't necessarily translate.Comment -
Yulia74SBR MVP
- 08-28-18
- 1907
#12491CHINA TO SELL PORK AGAIN FROM STATE RESERVES AFTER PRICE SURGE
the only country to have a 'strategic pork reserve'.
Comment -
milwaukee mikeBARRELED IN @ SBR!
- 08-22-07
- 26914
-
Yulia74SBR MVP
- 08-28-18
- 1907
#12494Golden dragon china index sinks to lowest since july 2013Comment -
Yulia74SBR MVP
- 08-28-18
- 1907
#12495Hong kong's hang seng index drops to lowest close since 2009Comment
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