Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[milwaukee mike]

good on you Miker.
i am an "older dad" as i had children later in life and my wife is the homemaker and i the breadwinner so i will be working another 10 years but it's okay, i started everything late in life and that is on me.

guys like you (i am guessing) and many others started early and got to retire early because you were wise from the getgo.

i salute you !!

my net worth went negative after 9/11/01... too much in casino stocks on margin... but got lucky on the turnaround there to at least pay off the crDt crDs... then net worth got close to 0 in 2009... so essentially it was 11 years of working and saving (most i ever made in a year was 120k but i got to write off cars/travel/etc)... then a couple big gains after covid

the problem is that i didn't follow what my own tax advice always was, if you're gonna make a million and lose a million, LOSE FIRST! that way the capital losses carry forward... i paid a bunch of taxes, and avoided selling penn/nflx when i should have... now i have a ton of losses that will do me no good

some of my stocks will turn around, but i will never be super aggressive again, so there's really no way to use up my losses on a bunch of my preferred and junk bond stuff that has gone or is going bankrupt

[19th Hole]

madder my brother!

This is why i hold over 80 companies but my largest position is qqq and second largest is spy, both tried and true index funds.

Qqq incepted in may 1999 and survived dot.com burst, 08 crisis, and covid.

Spy incepted in jan 1993.

Those two make up approx 35% of my overall portfolio

another 35% are made up of 80 or so stocks of which 60 are bluechips and 20 high growth more spec tech plays, and of course btc and eth

last, the remaining 30% is cash, slowly filtering in on deep pullbacks.

I come from the warren buffett school so i am very frugal and while i can easily afford a tesla or two to drive, instead i drive two paid off cars and both are very reliable and were inside of $30k

my buddies? Most drive teslas. I don't want to hear them complaining in 10y when i am way ahead of them and not worrying about money as they are spending like drunken sailors right now.

#1 is needs
#2 is investments
#3 is wants

i will get the last laugh but i won't show anyone i'm laughing, but they are watching and witnessing and my blueprint is nothing new.

It's now how much you make, it's how much you save and how much you invest

~~~

Sharp Sharp Sharp

[Slurry Pumper]

Yesterday we got the bounce we were all looking for but before I was willing to take it so I've been watching the tape here. Today we have another gap above the all important $371 on the SPY. There is another level of resistance at $374ish. I think we set up a range here between $374 - $362 for the week or maybe even longer, so what that means here today is sell the rip for me after the rush this morning unless they can get the number above the $374 spot on 10,15 and 30 minute candle closes. Above that is $376.50 ish, and if the short squeeze is in max pain operation we could see a push for $382 which would represent a near record day if that were to happen. Back down there is the top of the gap at $370.50, yesterday's close at $368, $365.50 and the total melt down number is $362.50.

Today's dirty sounding pumping term is HEAD:
Head is the measure of the pumps performance or how high the fluid can be pumped. Really it is directly comparable to pressure. Head is 2.30725 psi, or further truncated to 2.31psi. So instead of saying pressure, we tend to say how much head a pump can produce just because it sounds a little dirtier. They even call it making head, or how much head are you getting, and I wonder why there are no women in this industry.

[milwaukee mike]

pretty sure i called the bottom on VRA

up 10% and headed for another 100%+ up

[trobin31]

Things are coming to a head…two Anglo central banks(UK/Australia) turning the printers back on leaves one to wonder if they are getting the chromes lathered up for some demand destroying event..credit suisse and other majors credit default swamps at levels since 2007…but im not getting a-head and being too down on myself…two heads are better than one

I am still cash retirement..like 100% for some reason..also still long all the oils and energies…since we are coming out of the summer and I think I might be done travelling and banging out strange in foreign places…either sitting tight and waiting for massive value on NVDA, TSLA, Unity and other preferred growth stonks…looking at some highly rated micro-caps or playing the downside every chance we get…

[puckk]

[Madison]

Madder my brother!

This is why I hold over 80 companies but my largest position is QQQ and second largest is SPY, both tried and true index funds.

QQQ incepted in May 1999 and survived dot.com burst, 08 crisis, and COVID.

SPY incepted in Jan 1993.

those two make up approx 35% of my overall portfolio

another 35% are made up of 80 or so stocks of which 60 are bluechips and 20 high growth more spec tech plays, and of course BTC and ETH

last, the remaining 30% is Cash, slowly filtering in on deep pullbacks.

i come from the Warren Buffett school so i am very frugal and while i can easily afford a Tesla or two to drive, instead i drive two paid off cars and both are very reliable and were inside of $30K

my buddies? most drive Teslas. i don't want to hear them complaining in 10Y when i am way ahead of them and not worrying about money as they are spending like drunken sailors right now.

#1 is NEEDS
#2 is Investments
#3 is WANTS

i will get the last laugh but i won't show anyone i'm laughing, but they are watching and witnessing and my blueprint is nothing new.

it's now how much you make, it's how much you save and how much you INVEST

As we've discussed offline. You are on a solid course. Most importantly you have one major concept under control NEEDS vs WANTS. That and keep to a minimum any interest you are paying.

All my best to you and yours!!

[Madison]

Things are coming to a head…two Anglo central banks(UK/Australia) turning the printers back on leaves one to wonder if they are getting the chromes lathered up for some demand destroying event..credit suisse and other majors credit default swamps at levels since 2007…but im not getting a-head and being too down on myself…two heads are better than one

I am still cash retirement..like 100% for some reason..also still long all the oils and energies…since we are coming out of the summer and I think I might be done travelling and banging out strange in foreign places…either sitting tight and waiting for massive value on NVDA, TSLA, Unity and other preferred growth stonks…looking at some highly rated micro-caps or playing the downside every chance we get…

Welcome back. Take a look at DNA when time permits and let us know. I'm in a bit deep in the high 200's and have kept adding.

My Lithium holdings (ALB, SQM, LAC, LTHM) just keep paying off.

Best

[trobin31]

Welcome back. Take a look at DNA when time permits and let us know. I'm in a bit deep in the high 200's and have kept adding.

My Lithium holdings (ALB, SQM, LAC, LTHM) just keep paying off.

Best

I had a little time today and looking into some EV/Lithium related plays today and RELL & FREY look intriguing to me…some interesting battery technology coming out of Drexel…just google Drexell battery

[RangeFinder]

This is a bear rally. Beware, pain is coming if you're not positioned right.

[homie1975]

This is a bear rally. Beware, pain is coming if you're not positioned right.

it certainly feels that way however any dovish stance by the Fed compared to the hawkish ones of late, and this dead kitty could have some legs.

add in the possibility of earnings coming out decent instead of bad, and we *might* have the fuel we need to continue this for a bit longer.

long term through 12/31? I am not so sure..

[homie1975]

all eyes on Friday's Jobs Report....

[d2bets]

all eyes on Friday's Jobs Report....

And the market wants to see fewer jobs openings and more unemployment, correct?

[guitarjosh]

And the market wants to see fewer jobs openings and more unemployment, correct?

They got the fewer job openings

[milwaukee mike]

And the market wants to see fewer jobs openings and more unemployment, correct?

i think the fed/powell wants to see more people in the "real unemployment" numbers get back to work... cnbc's cramer made the point that through inflation and reduction of asset values, the fed hopes people that planned to never go back to work actually do

when i heard that, i thought of a cult of elitists that hates when the us/euro middle class has it good, so they crash the economy every 7 years to make their favorite spots less crowded lol

[homie1975]

And the market wants to see fewer jobs openings and more unemployment, correct?

yes.

[homie1975]

They got the fewer job openings

Josher
did you get to peek at the non-farm bankroll numbers ? is this how you know?

[homie1975]

i think the fed/powell wants to see more people in the "real unemployment" numbers get back to work... cnbc's cramer made the point that through inflation and reduction of asset values, the fed hopes people that planned to never go back to work actually do

when i heard that, i thought of a cult of elitists that hates when the us/euro middle class has it good, so they crash the economy every 7 years to make their favorite spots less crowded lol

yes it was a surreal moment on his show the other night or was it late last week?

anyhow, i do recall seeing him list all of the things that need to go down in order to tame inflation and none of it was good for MAIN STREET.

[d2bets]

i think the fed/powell wants to see more people in the "real unemployment" numbers get back to work... cnbc's cramer made the point that through inflation and reduction of asset values, the fed hopes people that planned to never go back to work actually do

when i heard that, i thought of a cult of elitists that hates when the us/euro middle class has it good, so they crash the economy every 7 years to make their favorite spots less crowded lol

So we should mark our calendars for 2029?

[milwaukee mike]

So we should mark our calendars for 2029?

bingo

1973
1980
1987
1994
2001
2008
2015 was skipped
2022

and you could even go back before 1973... as i pointed out it's a cleansing, or business cycle, or shemitah... or it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy because people expect it

whatever the case may be, there are almost always some weird things in september of every 7th year, which is the end of the shemitah... 9/11/01 was 1 day away from the end of the shemitah, what a coincidence

1901-1902 Shmita Year - 46% U.S. Stock market value wiped out.
1916-1917 Shmita Year - 40% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. German, Austro-Hungarian, Russian and Ottoman Empires collapsed. Britain, the world's greatest empire was almost bankrupt. The beginning of American to rise to world power. All during this one Shmita year.
1930-1931 Shmita Year - 86% U.S stock market value wiped out in the worst financial crisis in modern history.
1937-1938 Shmita Year - 50% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. Global recession.
1944-1945 Shmita Year - End of German Reich and Britain's hold on territories. Establishment of America as the world's super power.
1965-1966 Shmita Year - 23% stock market value wiped out.
1972-1973 Shmita Year - 48% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. Global recession. U.S. Voted to kill its unborn children (Abortion legalized). U.S. lost its first war - Vietnam...
1979-1980 Shmita Year - U.S. and global recession.
1986-1987 Shmita Year - 33% U.S. Stock market value wiped out.
1993-1994 Shmita Year - Bond market crash.
2000-2001 Shmita Year - 37% U.S. stock market value wiped out. 9/11 and Global recession.
2007-2008 Shmita Year - 50% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. Global recession.

[guitarjosh]

Josher
did you get to peek at the non-farm bankroll numbers ? is this how you know?

No, JOLTS job openings were released yesterday and were down roughly 1 million month over month.

[Slurry Pumper]

I think we may be in another cycle for the short couple of weeks where any news is good news unless the news is catastrophic. I still think we will set up a trading range here going into the election. The charts are telling me that the current levels are just a spot to hang out at before pushing higher in the coming days.

Todays pumping term that sounds dirty is THRUST LOAD.

It is a force that is applied thru a bearings axis.

[milwaukee mike]

some of the stocks i follow (wynn/nflx/crct/mara) have really bounced off the lows, 50%+ in many cases... yet others that seem good bounce candidates (para/pton/nly/intc) have drifted lower in recent weeks

seems like a real bifurcated/split market to me, not all boats have been sinking and not all boats have been rising, even in the same industry

[d2bets]

NIO is on sale. Anyone still like that?

[d2bets]

some of the stocks i follow (wynn/nflx/crct/mara) have really bounced off the lows, 50%+ in many cases... yet others that seem good bounce candidates (para/pton/nly/intc) have drifted lower in recent weeks

seems like a real bifurcated/split market to me, not all boats have been sinking and not all boats have been rising, even in the same industry

Generally speaking, that's a healthy sign IMO. Rationality.

[d2bets]

I think we may be in another cycle for the short couple of weeks where any news is good news unless the news is catastrophic. I still think we will set up a trading range here going into the election. The charts are telling me that the current levels are just a spot to hang out at before pushing higher in the coming days.

Todays pumping term that sounds dirty is THRUST LOAD.

It is a force that is applied thru a bearings axis.

Agreed. I think we return to the low 3900's resistance and hang out between 3800-3,950 for a few weeks at least.

[chico2663]

I had a little time today and looking into some EV/Lithium related plays today and RELL & FREY look intriguing to me…some interesting battery technology coming out of Drexel…just google Drexell battery

Been on Frey for awhile. Bought for 11.20

[chico2663]

NIO is on sale. Anyone still like that?

I originally bought as penny at 1.92

[milwaukee mike]

Been on Frey for awhile. Bought for 11.20

tailed you, that has been pretty good!

[Slurry Pumper]

Today's job numbers will move the SPY and other markets as it is set for either a move up to around 380ish, or down to the 368 spot. I think I'm going to take the day off frankly and maybe come back on Monday ready to play. I don't have any short term items in the basket and this week was pretty good to me.

Today's Pumping term is STOPCOCK. Yeah I know its actually a thing.

A stopcock is the valve that controls the fluid main into a system. So basically when the pipe burst in your house and water is spraying everywhere like a fire hose, and your wife yells to you stopcock, you'll know that she is just informing you to go to the main valve inlet and turn it off.

[homie1975]

No, JOLTS job openings were released yesterday and were down roughly 1 million month over month.

Market obviously did not like today's release

[trobin31]

Been on Frey for awhile. Bought for 11.20

F’ing sharp

[d2bets]

some of the stocks i follow (wynn/nflx/crct/mara) have really bounced off the lows, 50%+ in many cases... yet others that seem good bounce candidates (para/pton/nly/intc) have drifted lower in recent weeks

seems like a real bifurcated/split market to me, not all boats have been sinking and not all boats have been rising, even in the same industry

PTON is interesting. Hard to see how it doesn't eventually move higher. Either they turn it around or they make an attractive takeover candidate for Google, Amazon, Apple, etc. Under 3 bil market cap, how can that name not be worth more? $160 to under $10 in 20 months.

[d2bets]

bingo

1973
1980
1987
1994
2001
2008
2015 was skipped
2022

and you could even go back before 1973... as i pointed out it's a cleansing, or business cycle, or shemitah... or it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy because people expect it

whatever the case may be, there are almost always some weird things in september of every 7th year, which is the end of the shemitah... 9/11/01 was 1 day away from the end of the shemitah, what a coincidence

1901-1902 Shmita Year - 46% U.S. Stock market value wiped out.
1916-1917 Shmita Year - 40% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. German, Austro-Hungarian, Russian and Ottoman Empires collapsed. Britain, the world's greatest empire was almost bankrupt. The beginning of American to rise to world power. All during this one Shmita year.
1930-1931 Shmita Year - 86% U.S stock market value wiped out in the worst financial crisis in modern history.
1937-1938 Shmita Year - 50% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. Global recession.
1944-1945 Shmita Year - End of German Reich and Britain's hold on territories. Establishment of America as the world's super power.
1965-1966 Shmita Year - 23% stock market value wiped out.
1972-1973 Shmita Year - 48% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. Global recession. U.S. Voted to kill its unborn children (Abortion legalized). U.S. lost its first war - Vietnam...
1979-1980 Shmita Year - U.S. and global recession.
1986-1987 Shmita Year - 33% U.S. Stock market value wiped out.
1993-1994 Shmita Year - Bond market crash.
2000-2001 Shmita Year - 37% U.S. stock market value wiped out. 9/11 and Global recession.
2007-2008 Shmita Year - 50% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. Global recession.

So it's 2028-2029? I need exact dates. I'm marking my calendar.

[milwaukee mike]

So it's 2028-2029? I need exact dates. I'm marking my calendar.

it's a weird type of cycle, ends somewhere around the middle of september every 7th year... so yes september 2029 would be the problem area

i know you're being sarcastic but it can't just be a random coincidence that markets crash that often every 7th year in september/october