Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[slewfan]

Looking at the 5 day chart, it looks like they hit a double bottom which is bullish. However, they do have some headwinds as a company and that loan forgiveness isn't going to send that stock soaring as most of their customers don't qualify. Long term you'll be ok once all these macro conditions go away which may be 3rd quarter next year. If you like their fundamentals, by all means hold long term 3-5 years if you're that type of investor. If you're a short term player, I think protecting yourself with covered calls weekly might be the right play until things settle down.

Not really a short term player. I will play sofi short term here if it gets to 11. AVAV and ALV are good short term plays. They go over a hundred and then slide back down to 80's or 60's.

[Slurry Pumper]

As my theory goes, the SPY got to and closed above the $418 spot yesterday which is setting up the market to soar even with all the bad news. We are in a bad news is good news cycle and even good news is good news too, so today when the FED comes out, do you really think he is going to pull the rug out? I don't. Sure he will tell us that he is fighting inflation and will keep raising rates, and the market will still rally. Why? well because the charts predict the news and not the other way around.
We'll see how it goes, usually the day after the FED is the drop day. I contend that the market will fall apart soon enough, but for now for another week to couple of weeks, we will have a rally. Right out of nowhere. A classic bull run in a bear market for no reason other than just because.

SPY upside numbers of interest: 421.60, 425.00, 429.75

What if I'm full of shyt, where does the downside numbers say we might fall too?

417.92, 415 (again), 412.50, and the watch out below number 410.

[milwaukee mike]

And here comes another 1/2 Trillion $ of gasoline on top of an already burning inflationary fire. More devaluation of the dollar. I gotta keep buying commodity stocks.

the lack of positive action in gld/slv is baffling

i would keep buying the PHYSICAL products (in states with no sales tax)... only reason to hold paper gold instead, is to sell calls against it

[d2bets]

the lack of positive action in gld/slv is baffling

i would keep buying the PHYSICAL products (in states with no sales tax)... only reason to hold paper gold instead, is to sell calls against it

What are you hoarding?

[Slurry Pumper]

Powell killed the tape, and I sold all calls after the initial dip and rip. $410 is the line in the sand for daily close. Gotta like the hedge plays on Fed day. Wild swings in both directions.

[packerd_00]

Anyone own shares of Cenovus? if so how far do you think they can go.

[RangeFinder]

It's going to be ugly for awhile now.

[Madison]

Anyone looking at SoFi.. ? ..

With the government paying of the college loans, may have a positive affect…. It is 2+ dollars higher than it’s low and 18 dollars lower than it’s high.

I bought 1000 shares @6.59.. Was up, now down a little on the after hours.. Already have a thousand shares @ 15.75 before it went in the shytter…

I'm in with you for smaller. First bought circa $12. Sold circa 7-9. Bought back in the 5's. Long term holder here. Currently only have circa 400-500 shares.

[Madison]

Looking at the 5 day chart, it looks like they hit a double bottom which is bullish. However, they do have some headwinds as a company and that loan forgiveness isn't going to send that stock soaring as most of their customers don't qualify. Long term you'll be ok once all these macro conditions go away which may be 3rd quarter next year. If you like their fundamentals, by all means hold long term 3-5 years if you're that type of investor. If you're a short term player, I think protecting yourself with covered calls weekly might be the right play until things settle down.

I'm playing the 3-5 year plan with this one. They have been hit short term by all the political BS. Think holding a bank charter will pay off long term. Owner very progressive and buying back tons of shares.

[Madison]

as my theory goes, the spy got to and closed above the $418 spot yesterday which is setting up the market to soar even with all the bad news. We are in a bad news is good news cycle and even good news is good news too, so today when the fed comes out, do you really think he is going to pull the rug out? I don't. Sure he will tell us that he is fighting inflation and will keep raising rates, and the market will still rally. Why? Well because the charts predict the news and not the other way around.
We'll see how it goes, usually the day after the fed is the drop day. I contend that the market will fall apart soon enough, but for now for another week to couple of weeks, we will have a rally. Right out of nowhere. A classic bull run in a bear market for no reason other than just because.

Spy upside numbers of interest: 421.60, 425.00, 429.75

what if i'm full of shyt, where does the downside numbers say we might fall too?

417.92, 415 (again), 412.50, and the watch out below number 410.

ouch!!

[Madison]

the lack of positive action in gld/slv is baffling

i would keep buying the PHYSICAL products (in states with no sales tax)... only reason to hold paper gold instead, is to sell calls against it

Been DCA'ng down with SLV and GLD. I have significant cash on the sidelines and considering being more aggressive with my buying. Thoughts? Holding physical not really practical for me.

[Slurry Pumper]

ouch!!

Yeah, I had to sell all calls on the rebound bounce this morning. Now we are all of a sudden looking for a pretty good drop coming.

[milwaukee mike]

What are you hoarding?

i like silver but it is really heavy

gold and platinum are good

i spread it around, always thought when platinum is this cheap vs gold, then it is the better buy... but who knows, some country(s) could go on the gold standard and change things, otherwise platinum is more rare and more precious

[ex50warrior]

the lack of positive action in gld/slv is baffling

i would keep buying the PHYSICAL products (in states with no sales tax)... only reason to hold paper gold instead, is to sell calls against it

Yeah, makes no sense to me why the prices haven't moved higher.

I understand the advantages to owning physical metals. But storage is an issue for me. I own miners and streamers.

[Madison]

i like silver but it is really heavy

gold and platinum are good

i spread it around, always thought when platinum is this cheap vs gold, then it is the better buy... but who knows, some country(s) could go on the gold standard and change things, otherwise platinum is more rare and more precious

The volativity (Plat) is difficult for me to calculate. 850-940 seemingly on a whim??

[Madison]

Yeah, I had to sell all calls on the rebound bounce this morning. Now we are all of a sudden looking for a pretty good drop coming.

I have weird (no basis) feeling this is a head fake. I think the momentum/algo's are very much worth attention?? in the day to day trade.

[flyingillini]

What a bloodbath. Next week expect more of the same , unfortunately

[Slurry Pumper]

With Powell's statement, you can expect the market to call the FED's bluff here. Lets see how keen he is to raise rates when the massive unemployment hits at around Christmas time, and the SPY is hang out around $225. I think when those are the facts, he will capitulate and start some kind of stimulus having surrendered to inflation.

He can't raise rates high enough without the entire world coming to a halt and being plunged into a recession with food and energy shortages. It just so happens those are the 2 things that people really can't do without so expect to battle Gladiator style in some places for these things.

If this is a head fake it is a $15 SPY one hell of a bobble head on that fake out.

[RangeFinder]

Right now it's about weekly covers calls. It's just not a market to take a stand, long or short. Things need to play out.

[d2bets]

With Powell's statement, you can expect the market to call the FED's bluff here. Lets see how keen he is to raise rates when the massive unemployment hits at around Christmas time, and the SPY is hang out around $225. I think when those are the facts, he will capitulate and start some kind of stimulus having surrendered to inflation.

He can't raise rates high enough without the entire world coming to a halt and being plunged into a recession with food and energy shortages. It just so happens those are the 2 things that people really can't do without so expect to battle Gladiator style in some places for these things.

If this is a head fake it is a $15 SPY one hell of a bobble head on that fake out.

You're calling SPY $225 by Christmas?

Just having a hard time seeing that massive unemployment happen. Far as I can tell, it's still basically full employment right now. I see endless job openings. There's still a lot of money out there.

[guitarjosh]

With Powell's statement, you can expect the market to call the FED's bluff here. Lets see how keen he is to raise rates when the massive unemployment hits at around Christmas time, and the SPY is hang out around $225. I think when those are the facts, he will capitulate and start some kind of stimulus having surrendered to inflation.

He can't raise rates high enough without the entire world coming to a halt and being plunged into a recession with food and energy shortages. It just so happens those are the 2 things that people really can't do without so expect to battle Gladiator style in some places for these things.

If this is a head fake it is a $15 SPY one hell of a bobble head on that fake out.

You think SPY will be at 225 and we have massive layoffs by Christmas time? The Fed only meets this year in Sept, Nov and December 14. Another problem is that I think Biden is more interested in cooling inflation than a pumped up stock market, which will probably have an impact on Fed rates.

The stock and bond markets crashed until mid June, while commodities did very well until that time when they reversed. What I think happened is that people dumped their stocks and bonds due to inflation and bought up commodities to hedge against inflation and geopolitical problems. By mid June, they thought the stock and bond markets had been beaten up enough to go dumpster diving, so they took their profits in commodities and bought up stocks and bonds. If you look at a chart, the peak in commodities shows up at about the same time as the trough stocks & bonds. It looks like that trend reversal is now starting to reverse, and people are getting back into commodities.

The problem is this leaves the Fed in an awfully tough predicament. If the stock market goes up, people feel confident & rich and start buying more, which pushes up prices. If they buy bonds, that pushes interest rates down which makes it easier to borrow, which pushes up inflation. If they buy commodities, which is what I think will happen, prices shoot up and we have high inflation, necessitating higher interest rates. Even without that, natural gas prices are near the highest levels since 2008 and rents are soaring.

You're calling SPY $225 by Christmas?

Just having a hard time seeing that massive unemployment happen. Far as I can tell, it's still basically full employment right now. I see endless job openings. There's still a lot of money out there.

I think what happened is we had so much stimulus dumped into the economy that it grew significantly faster than the labor market could keep pace. Since the start of the year the economy has had to contract due to shortages, but it is still large enough to accommodate more workers.

[Slurry Pumper]

You think SPY will be at 225 and we have massive layoffs by Christmas time? The Fed only meets this year in Sept, Nov and December 14. Another problem is that I think Biden is more interested in cooling inflation than a pumped up stock market, which will probably have an impact on Fed rates.

The stock and bond markets crashed until mid June, while commodities did very well until that time when they reversed. What I think happened is that people dumped their stocks and bonds due to inflation and bought up commodities to hedge against inflation and geopolitical problems. By mid June, they thought the stock and bond markets had been beaten up enough to go dumpster diving, so they took their profits in commodities and bought up stocks and bonds. If you look at a chart, the peak in commodities shows up at about the same time as the trough stocks & bonds. It looks like that trend reversal is now starting to reverse, and people are getting back into commodities.

The problem is this leaves the Fed in an awfully tough predicament. If the stock market goes up, people feel confident & rich and start buying more, which pushes up prices. If they buy bonds, that pushes interest rates down which makes it easier to borrow, which pushes up inflation. If they buy commodities, which is what I think will happen, prices shoot up and we have high inflation, necessitating higher interest rates. Even without that, natural gas prices are near the highest levels since 2008 and rents are soaring.


I think what happened is we had so much stimulus dumped into the economy that it grew significantly faster than the labor market could keep pace. Since the start of the year the economy has had to contract due to shortages, but it is still large enough to accommodate more workers.

I see how you may think that I think the SPY will be at 225 by Christmas, and I as an engineer I plea that English is a second language to me next to mathematics. Certainly high unemployment will be around by Christmas. I use the recruiting call indicator at my own house which is usually quite heavy but lately has dried up a bit. Yeah, I'm self employed but I do like the feeling of removing all of those messages from my phone every day.
Anyway the SPY is for sure gonna get to $225 although by this Christmas is a little ambitious. By next Christmas is more realistic.
Inflation ain't coming down anytime soon. The core things like food and rent are at this point systemic as my good for nothing kids like to say. Powell is just jaw boning the markets now, but in the end he can't raise rates enough because the debt load is too great. Its call stagflation and as a person who was like 10 the last time we had this problem, I can tell you I felt it then too when I was mowing lawns. Of course back then I was too young to pump slurry anywhere on this earth, and was more in line to be slurry pumped by Father Gonzales in Miami during my catholic days. I guess however I didn't make the cut and was too undesirable but that is another story.

I figure the Fed raises 0.75 in September as promised, then a tip of the hand in November when he goes only .50 or even .25. In December unemployment will be a new thing everyone has discovered just after the election, and Powell will probably pause thus sending gold finally on its way.

In the near term, I told you all about the 2-3 month period when the market was crashing the last time in June, then just last week I told you all that was over. Sure I thought the fed would not come out with a dumbass remark that he did so I also thought the markets would be getting a week or so bump before a mud slide down the slope.
This week I'm looking at selling volume and how far the markets fall here. Is $365 the bottom? Not even but it may be a temporary bottom for a while or it may not even be a stalling point as things blast through it to $350.
Hell we may even get a rebound on Monday. I never underestimate the markets, I just play them for what they give. Over all though I see it all coming down and coming down pretty far by the time it all ends up being written in the history books.

[Slurry Pumper]

Ok for today where is support that I think we can find a point of rebound?
How about 400, then maybe down to 395. Its a big range but when knives are falling numbers pass by fast. How about a rescue? Any up movement has to be above 410 on a daily close to be believed.

[milwaukee mike]

good points by slurry about stagflation

this is the only time the fed has ever raised rates during a recession... so it's essentially going to be an intentional depression, either through stagflation or outright hyperinflation

either way, the one thing to always keep in mind is that the usa has more debt than every other country on earth COMBINED, and we no longer have any way to possibly pay any of that off... only way we could accumulate it in the first place was by continuing to increase gdp through bullshit wars and dumbass spending, now the only way to keep it going is by doing dumber and dumber things, like student loan forgiveness and sending weapons to ukraine (which never get into the hands of who we say they get to)

protect people that went into debt, rather than those who worked their way through college... protect the borders of the most corrupt place on earth (ukraine), while not even attempting to protect our own

clown world stuff that means our country isn't GOING TO BE DOOMED, it already is

[chico2663]

Only thing I have up today Frey.

[Slurry Pumper]

Looks like this cat is trying to bounce this morning. 1st order of bidness is the 100 DMA and the bottom of Friday's break down candle at $405.50ish on the daily close in the SPY. They were up in this area yesterday but couldn't hold it. I think today they do, from there the markets can begin to start the rescue operation. What if they can't maintain the 405.50 level? Well at that point we'll see if yesterday's low holds at 401.20.
I'm a buyer of an intraday spike and hold of $405.50ish later this morning, or a drop down to $400 which also happens to be the 50 day moving average. Likewise the QQQ, IWM, and especially the SMH today will have the same story going on.

Overall though I'm looking to sell the rip sometime in the future after this cat reaches max altitude. If the rescue squad gets it going, the 200 DMA for the indices (even QQQ) could be on the agenda. I don't think they get above that, but it could so as usual taking the tape day by day and re-assessing is my plan.

[chico2663]

Frey up 10 % this morning. At 14 but I think it is a 40. Stock

[d2bets]

Looks like this cat is trying to bounce this morning. 1st order of bidness is the 100 DMA and the bottom of Friday's break down candle at $405.50ish on the daily close in the SPY. They were up in this area yesterday but couldn't hold it. I think today they do, from there the markets can begin to start the rescue operation. What if they can't maintain the 405.50 level? Well at that point we'll see if yesterday's low holds at 401.20.
I'm a buyer of an intraday spike and hold of $405.50ish later this morning, or a drop down to $400 which also happens to be the 50 day moving average. Likewise the QQQ, IWM, and especially the SMH today will have the same story going on.

Overall though I'm looking to sell the rip sometime in the future after this cat reaches max altitude. If the rescue squad gets it going, the 200 DMA for the indices (even QQQ) could be on the agenda. I don't think they get above that, but it could so as usual taking the tape day by day and re-assessing is my plan.

Quite a morning dump. Couldn't hold $400 at all. $397 now, I guess next support is $395?

[RangeFinder]

We have a ways to go, this won't be over until late September early October. Secure some 3 month Puts and you'll all be fine. But, play it safe. Hedge.

[Slurry Pumper]

Quite a morning dump. Couldn't hold $400 at all. $397 now, I guess next support is $395?

Yeah, I was in and out already. SPY bounce before my next number so I will stay on the sidelines now.

I do have some Puts that expire after the election. These day to swing trade attempts are for lower entry amounts and really just to have something going while I wait for a rebound to sell into.

Its the sell the rip mentality with underlying puts incase that rip doesn't show up.

[milwaukee mike]

Frey up 10 % this morning. At 14 but I think it is a 40. Stock

i like it

not sure it goes to 40, but looks like it's worth 20

[Slurry Pumper]

Yesterday didn't exactly work out as planned when the SPY dropped straight through the 400 level then bounced about 20 cents above filling a gap from about a month ago.
Anyway, I'm back to play ball today so if we get a bullish run, I like 404.50 for a short or sell the rip play, and back down south I noticed an area that if reached in the next couple of days, it will have a bunch of support reasons to produce a bounce. Its right around the 390 - 388.50 spot.
Over in the QQQ world they are pretty much starting at the bounce spot, 299.50 - 296.50 represents a zone of interest for me, and then we have resistance at the 50DMA, and the low from Monday of 307.50ish which also happens to be the 100DMA.
The IWM happens to be hovering right about a convergence that will happen either today or tomorrow in the 50, 100DMA and a nice level of support near $183.
Jobs come out at 8:15 which will certainly have an effect on the direction for the day.

[RangeFinder]

Tread carefully, Slur. This market won't be rational for some time.

[milwaukee mike]

Tread carefully, Slur. This market won't be rational for some time.

i totally agree, so much weird stuff going on

snap hovers around 9 premarket, then opens at 11... bbby goes from 9 to 15 then back down to 9... nflx moves 10-15 points on nothing... my rsx still won't trade after months and months

[RangeFinder]

i totally agree, so much weird stuff going on

snap hovers around 9 premarket, then opens at 11... bbby goes from 9 to 15 then back down to 9... nflx moves 10-15 points on nothing... my rsx still won't trade after months and months

Good news is eventually this will all iron out, but right now the forces to be are trying to bury 401k money. It's not good and sad. This is all about power and control and once they get the retirement money of the people, they gain control.

This is all by design.