Well the market came back to retest the lows from last week. Interesting to see if it can bounce from here and recapture the 20 WMA for the week. All the other index markets I look at are hanging out above support but they can move lower to get there so lets see how today and tomorrow go and if it does run, just how high can it get. 443 is the first goal for a bull repair job. That's pretty far and there are some resistance levels on the way but until the SPY recaptures that it looks bearish for the short term.
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OK Hump day is in the books so lets look at some charts to see if we can pick up on a theme or the near future. All of these charts are of 10 Day duration with 4 hour candles.
OK start off with the SPY with the latest close below all the moving averages except the 200 PMA. There is a big break down candle with a bear flag pattern. This usually tells me that the 200 PMA is not going to hold and lower prices are coming.
Lets look at the dow transports which is usually a really good indicator of future stuff to happen.- Below all of the moving averages, not good.
- Its found a place kind of just below the 20PMA and at a former place of support. Not bad.
- It tried to get above a break out candle high today and failed. Not good.
IWM is next, one of the best leading indicators.- Its below all of the moving averages.
- It found a little support for the last 2 periods, but couldn't snap back in the last 4 hours leaving a long candle wick on top of a Doji candle. Usually doji candles with long wicks are a signal of directional change, but the wick is coming out of the wrong side.
XLF is in the best shape of all the indicators here.- Its above all of the moving averages except the 9 PMA which is a bullish thing.
- Its found support at the top of a break out candle.
- It has a bear flag pattern going on now for a little while just above some moving averages.
2 good things and 1 pretty bad thing or this one.
SMH is next, this is the semi conductor sector and is usually a good indicator of how the QQQ will be doing.- Below all the moving averages with the last one closing below the 200 and having a large wick.
- Its made a lower low.
Finally lets look at the QQQs.- Below all but the 200 PMA.
- Bear flag pattern after a break down candle.
- Last candle has a large top wick on a doji.
Add all of these charts together and you can see there is a high likelihood more down side is coming. If your a buy the dipper take heed. You may end up with a shit sandwich to eat on this one.Last edited by Slurry Pumper; 09-29-21, 05:09 PM.Comment -
Sept is going to close solidly in the red for yours truly. Down about 3% despite some solid trading profits and despite defensive positioning.Comment -
If trying to time it perfectly start looking after 1st week of October, personally I prefer getting as much capital as possible into energy and crypto right now and throwing the leftovers into high conviction long term plays.
why energy and crypto, is he crazy? Clout chasing?
In both cases you have one of the most asymmetric lopsided trades in history.
Energy: fuel of life, from ATP to combustion, photovoltaic to nuclear...humans need energy....in times of desperation....energy and utilities will always thrive. My largest holdings. UUUU URG OIH RIG USO XLE UCO
Crypto: you may not have noticed but global governments are playing a game of Jenga with monetary policy, the internet is now 20 years old and in bad need for an upgrade, Web 3.0 solves both. My largest holdings....BTC ETH SOL AVAX DOT HUT COIN, I also own an Avaxape NFT worth 300+ AVAX lol...when your entire life is tokenized in 10-20 yrs think of me
cliff note: looking to get long in copper, the supply demand for global ESG initiatives for copper is absurd, copper prices are coming back, miners like COPX look attractiveComment -
This play began it's surge in 2016, along with the rest of the markets.. We know what significant event happened then.. It has been a wonderful run.. Plenty of room to give some back without making a dent..Comment -
Good chance to swing coin or mstr tmrw, good chance we see pops rest of weekComment -
I like it.
The estimates for next year are .88 to 2.21 per share earnings. This guy already has a book value of $4.5. If they hit the low end their book value will rise to the mid $5 area. Quite a good value play with a lot of future growth projected.1.48
(7 Analysts)-- 0.88 / 2.21
That's Roy's kind of stock.
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Boyz I'm gambling we get a strong end of the week rally. That usually means we are going down 500 points. LOL
Filled at $1.12 -SPY210930C431 CALL (SPY) SPDR S&P500 ETF SEP 30 21 $431 (100 SHS) 09/30/2021 12:32:43 PM ET $1.12 40.000 $4,481.29 09/30/2021 12:32:43 PM ET $1.12 52.000 $5,825.67 09/30/2021 12:32:43 PM ET $1.12 8.000 $896.26 Net Total: 100.000 $11,268.22 Comment -
With Manchin saying publicly his number is $1.5T, I think it calms the markets. That's a wholeeee lot smaller biz tax.Comment -
it's time to start opening, adding to, and fortifying positions next week.
weak hands are being flushed almost clean now, and idle money will be going in very soon and old money will return.
stocks are still BY FAR the best game in town to beat annual inflation and grow wealth, and earnings are going to surprise in a good way.
we have the fuel.
people please do not come back in here on Friday 10/29 four weeks from now and say WE did not tell you so.Comment -
SPY broke 100DMA, either massive bear trap or we are taking an elevator to 150-200DMA, personally I’d like another week of sellingComment -
Killed them into the close again today, but now we are right at the lows from last week. We are due for a rip you a new one short squeezing rally so I applaud putting up the rocks today for a gamble. I may join in tomorrow but I gotta see how they open up. With the close at the low today there is a chance we get another gap down before an intraday reversal or just a collapse toward the 200 day.Comment -
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Environment remains complex, I did end up putting 100% of my retirement account in IWM as spy & bonds look weak...until we see US10Y find some resistance a lot of the value stonks in cyclicals, energy and financials should find some fresh new recent highs...you can find reasonable value plays in tech, like Dropbox, Corsair, but they are few and far between.
I don’t know how the battle between the Transitory versus Secular inflationistas will play out....I am still of the mind set technological advances only accelerate over time and will far outstrip any amount of money printing....so in the end, whether it’s 5-10years, deflationary pressures will be much heavier and win in the long run.
with that said I do see intermediate inflationary pressures in energy and commodities and have positioned heavily in oil and uranium...
commodity wise I have positioned in steel and graphene and looking to get long in copper, specifically COPX given the value of this material in generating battery power.Comment -
This week is YUGE...still waiting for VIX to break back down below support, I understand most don’t TA VIX but I do when it shows strong support and doesn’t break down quickly. We should know pretty soon which way tide turns. I currently have VIX wedge breaking up in December....if we get a pop in risk-off assets, Crypto and IWM heading into this week...then they basically baited the bears and going to take their money and QE while it’s free money...don’t fight the fed...ignore your principalsComment -
Also OPEX this week, personally big for me bc of Oil investments, saw an article about some pipeline busting, so seems like perfect excuse to ramp up supply which means no bueno for oil stonks...guess we’ll see...if we break 77 it’s off to races, otherwise a double top...either way the amount of insider buys and short term inflation any weakness in Oil is a massive buyComment -
OK the Qs have been beaten down and curbed stomped for the last few weeks now and for various reasons I think this market may be hitting a key point on the charts while also having a timing in line for a "Rip you a New One" Rally.
Take a look at these charts and remember it isn't what is going to happen just a possibility and a reminder that things happen over and over again in cycles.
On a 6 Month chart with daily closes you can see that todays closing price is right just below a trend line that has held for the last year with several hits for support.
Lets zoom in on a 5 Day time frame with Hourly candle closes. The trend line value is $353.70. Then there is resistance at levels $354.70, $358.70, and $362.30.
I suspect that if a trader was to enter the QQQ's tomorrow using whatever you like the 3X bull ETF, or Oprtions with the end of the week expiration that there will be some quick profit to be had before too much time has been taken off the clock. I'm wrong when the price closes on an hourly (10:30,11:30,etc...) below the low for today of $350.32.
So ideally the market gaps down to open tomorrow and the QQQs hold the line in the sand so I can get in, and the closer it gets to $350 the better so if it goes below like I described, it is a small loss. Then if I'm right there is a rip you a new one rally, and I would be looking at all of the resistance levels I just put down here for a high level. I doubt the price could get above the top line I have of $362.30 however, that is some strong resistance, but if it does, there would be another pop and short squeeze at that level that I would call the bone us level.Comment -
We are extremely close to oversold territory and then the retail guys like who us who are approx 30% of the market come back in droves w two fists full of cashComment -
Well sadly it looks like there is going to be a gap up open in the market today. Just shows that I was indeed asleep at the wheel yesterday when looking at the QQQ's. Not all is lost however. This is why I put in the resistance levels. It looks like we are going to gap up to the $354.7 level. I'll buy some QQQ Calls at about $1.18 ish (361 strike, Friday expire) off the open and wait to see if the QQQs pull back to retest the $354.70 level where I will load up on more.
If the QQQ's don't open above the $354.70 level, I'll still buy some calls off the open, but then I'll wait to see if there is a pullback to retest yesterday's close at the $352.80ish level before buying more, and even if the price revisits yesterdays low (including short term spikes lower) I'll be loading up heavily at $350.32. I don't think it will get there but you never know and being prepared is a good thing.
Once again hourly closes below yesterday's low of $350.32 means I'm wrong and I get out and watch or another chance.
This is a short term play, and I fully expect to be out by Thursday or even earlier and back to shorting the QQQ's.Last edited by Slurry Pumper; 10-05-21, 06:52 AM.Comment -
OK so what happened today in the QQQ trade I've been touting for the last 24 hours? Well just like I thought it turned around right about where it should and has started to run up. Where did it run to? How about a level of resistance I predicted $358.70ish. Yep it spiked through and settled back down a little bit. Sure people are taking profit from today's run at the end of the day and who can blame them today was a good move.
So below is a 10 day chart with 2 hour closes. I bought some QQQ calls today right off the open (100 @ .87 with 361 strike that expires Friday 10-8), and I touted that because it was about as close as it gets to a lock to me with little down risk. In other words a perfect setup. At one point today I actually doubled the money but I didn't sell. Why, well the QQQ's ran up to a point o resistance that is over most of the other levels I gave out yesterday, and now is hanging out going sideways gaining energy to blast off above not only the $258.70 level, but in my estimation it is ready to jump the $361 level which is the much touted neck line for the short players and the $362 level that I also told you about yesterday. If they can close the day (tomorrow) above these levels the short squeeze will be in full balls deep mode and you'll see the $366 at the very least and maybe even the gap of $370 by Friday before we sell and reshort the QQQs.
So what happen when the Qs move down tomorrow curtesy of the Trick trap fool and fuk you crew. They may be running a test of today's break up candle and if so, I will jump out holding onto profit at the $366 level and look to see if it can hold $353.60ish on hourly closes. If it can that is another load em up level for the run north. If not, it is probably back to shorting.
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NASDAQ components in a tug of war right now between the sellers and they scoopers.........Comment -
Confirmed, Charlie Munger aka Roy Bacon loaded up on BABA just like he said he wouldComment -
Lots of stuff meme’n around support
spy managed to close above 430
BTC front running
we are starting to see the MSM trickle in some Hopium stories.
call me names, or whatever you like but I think the melt up might be coming soon.Comment -
Here comes that rip you a new one rally. In everything but gold that is. Even though all the news is seemingly good for gold related things, it still is being left behind for now.Comment -
Horrible miss on the jobs report but we're still in light green.Comment -
consolidation phase. full tug of war. great sign for a "bottom" forming in the recent downtrend.
does anyone see anything different than this..Comment -
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Well just like I thought the nasdaq was set to at least dip down a little bit and I was lucky enough to get the QQQ to move up to resistance of $362.30 and spike through long enough for me to get rid of it and the buy the SQQQ for the kill into the close routine today. Right now the QQQs close just below the 50 DMA, and right at a place where if they don't hold which I don't think they will, then the lows of a few days ago at $350ish will be on the docket.Comment
