Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[KVB]

Nevermind, I suck at attaching. There’s a trendline we broke above going back to March 2020 on vix, looking for a retest before seeing what direction we are going

Glad I posted that chart from the beginning of 2020, it gives an idea. What was the trend line, I can add it if you want to discuss it more.

Crazy time the VIX went form 15 to 80 in a month from mid Feb to Mid march 2020.

[KVB]

Thign about the VIX is that trendlines, especially long term, aren't quite as effective, wouldn't you agree?

Because of the nature of the security, it's not like it's institutionally accumulated (which is not true actually, which is why there is some value to it) but it's on the same level as a regular equity when it comes to trading patterns.

Much more cyclical, but less predictive, no?

The 20 year chart....

[Slurry Pumper]

Glad I posted that chart from the beginning of 2020, it gives an idea. What was the trend line, I can add it if you want to discuss it more.

Crazy time the VIX went form 15 to 80 in a month from mid Feb to Mid march 2020.

If you connect the peaks from last March to today. there is your trend line. I looks like it was broken a little a few weeks back, but now it has blasted through.

[KVB]

If you connect the peaks from last March to today. there is your trend line. I looks like it was broken a little a few weeks back, but now it has blasted through.

Not saying we can't make lines and metrcs, I'm just saying they have a little different flavor to them than regular securities.

Check out this next post Slurry...

[KVB]

Ok, now I'm going to post one of my market tracking Funds. This is different than regular handicapping, this is capping designed to track the sports markets, you won't find this methodolgy anywhere in the world but at SBR with the KVB Family of Funds.

Contrarian Funds are market tracking, and I've posted the MLB charts in this thread. Now I want to show you the KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket.

Last year was a COVID year and while there were 101 triggers that went off, there were 33 triggers that were cancelled.

Anyway, I posted every play in that Fund since 2018 and have the links to show it, I have been trying to show this by example, and now we have a lot of data down at SBR so it's starting to show.

Can't help but look at the UPSET Basket and then the VIX and see something....

[trobin31]

Ok, now I'm going to post one of my market tracking Funds. This is different than regular handicapping, this is capping designed to track the sports markets, you won't find this methodolgy anywhere in the world but at SBR with the KVB Family of Funds.

Contrarian Funds are market tracking, and I've posted the MLB charts in this thread. Now I want to show you the KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket.

Last year was a COVID year and while there were 101 triggers that went off, there were 33 triggers that were cancelled.

Anyway, I posted every play in that Fund since 2018 and have the links to show it, I have been trying to show this by example, and now we have a lot of data down at SBR so it's starting to show.

Can't help but look at the UPSET Basket and then the VIX and see something....

Interesting, does hit fib levels?

[ex50warrior]

Haven't seen an update from RoyBacon in over a week, I miss his perspective.

[homie1975]

Haven't seen an update from RoyBacon in over a week, I miss his perspective.

yes ROYer is key in a time like this.

ROYer we need you in here, my Dude !!

[Slurry Pumper]

This morning smells like a sell the rip day. Fir
st level on the SPY I'm looking at is around 438.50. That would represent a gap and crap kind of opening. Kind of doubtful of it going that way, but the more attack prone trader types may try it. I do like the fill the gap trade for a short at $441.30. I also bought a little yesterday before the close when the SPY cleared the 200 DMA at 432 so at 441.30, that's a pretty good rip. If it stalls before, I'm going to unload half and see what happens.

What if we do have a gap and crap? At that point, I'll sell before 436.50 on the way down, and see if they retest yesterday's low at 428. There are support levels on the way back down of interest like 437.35, 436, 434.75, 432, and 431.50

[Slurry Pumper]

Well we got the gap up this morning and then a slow drip sideways for the rest of the day. Tomorrow it is unlikely to have a big positive move before the Fed wanders on out to speak. It is more likely that we see a gap down in the morning and it could be lower than yesterday's low. I put it at possibly a 425.50 or right where the break up candle from 7/20 is. Then maybe a spike lower to the candle just in front of it at 422.

So what's the Fed going to say to boost the market? Well to start with the taper talk is probably not going to be as prevalent because the market is sliding down now and he can't taper even if he wanted to at this point. He can point to a couple of things to say that the inflationary numbers aren't as bad as your wallet is telling you which is bullshit. Then again, its all bullshit anyway. Then he will tout some stuff that is happening over in China as not affecting the American banks. Then we will all be set for the rocket ride up the charts again. To new highs? probably not but for a little ride anyway for a few days and that is all I need.

[d2bets]

Well we got the gap up this morning and then a slow drip sideways for the rest of the day. Tomorrow it is unlikely to have a big positive move before the Fed wanders on out to speak. It is more likely that we see a gap down in the morning and it could be lower than yesterday's low. I put it at possibly a 425.50 or right where the break up candle from 7/20 is. Then maybe a spike lower to the candle just in front of it at 422.

So what's the Fed going to say to boost the market? Well to start with the taper talk is probably not going to be as prevalent because the market is sliding down now and he can't taper even if he wanted to at this point. He can point to a couple of things to say that the inflationary numbers aren't as bad as your wallet is telling you which is bullshit. Then again, its all bullshit anyway. Then he will tout some stuff that is happening over in China as not affecting the American banks. Then we will all be set for the rocket ride up the charts again. To new highs? probably not but for a little ride anyway for a few days and that is all I need.

I suspect (the smart money knows that) some taper is in the works and while he'll say inflation is transitory, the actions will speak louder than the words. The market action this week already tells me that the smart money already knows it and is selling into any little rally fueled by the every drop BTFD'ers, which has worked every time, until this one. Sub 410 is coming, maybe even this week. We'll see.

[ex50warrior]

Ok, sounds like a plan. Thanks, really enjoy your TA posts.

Well we got the gap up this morning and then a slow drip sideways for the rest of the day. Tomorrow it is unlikely to have a big positive move before the Fed wanders on out to speak. It is more likely that we see a gap down in the morning and it could be lower than yesterday's low. I put it at possibly a 425.50 or right where the break up candle from 7/20 is. Then maybe a spike lower to the candle just in front of it at 422.

So what's the Fed going to say to boost the market? Well to start with the taper talk is probably not going to be as prevalent because the market is sliding down now and he can't taper even if he wanted to at this point. He can point to a couple of things to say that the inflationary numbers aren't as bad as your wallet is telling you which is bullshit. Then again, its all bullshit anyway. Then he will tout some stuff that is happening over in China as not affecting the American banks. Then we will all be set for the rocket ride up the charts again. To new highs? probably not but for a little ride anyway for a few days and that is all I need.

[homie1975]

I suspect (the smart money knows that) some taper is in the works and while he'll say inflation is transitory, the actions will speak louder than the words. The market action this week already tells me that the smart money already knows it and is selling into any little rally fueled by the every drop BTFD'ers, which has worked every time, until this one. Sub 410 is coming, maybe even this week. We'll see.

I agree with this, but there will be a buy point sooner than later and it will behoove those looking to average down or open new positions, not to wait too long.

My question to you, D2er is: are you gona stand on the sidelines this time with your dikk in your hands or are you going to finally jump in ?!?!?!

JK mate - i have to mess with you a bit because we only see you in here in very deep red stretches LOLOL

[Slurry Pumper]

I suspect (the smart money knows that) some taper is in the works and while he'll say inflation is transitory, the actions will speak louder than the words. The market action this week already tells me that the smart money already knows it and is selling into any little rally fueled by the every drop BTFD'ers, which has worked every time, until this one. Sub 410 is coming, maybe even this week. We'll see.

Yes we are in a sell the rip environment here for a little while. I'm looking for a rally going into the weekend. We may get it we may not. I don't think the big money is going to pull the rug out just yet. There is a big gap down from Monday so 441 is my rip target for the short term. Then the trap doors open and back down for lower lows. 410ish is about right for a 10% pullback before the march continues for a few months.

[Slurry Pumper]

So the Fed came out and told everyone he is ready to taper but still they ain't tapering. The market didn't crash and now I believe the thing that happens next is to fill the gap from Monday by the end of the week. That would be in the more probable than not camp.

[trobin31]

I watched entire Powell speech

My takeaways...

1) he all but promised taper would start in December as long as November jobs was positive, doesn't need to be great...

2) government is currently working with MIT to develop approach to developing central bank digital currency...reading between the lines no CBDC will be announced until regulations come from SEC, treasury and approved by congress, which will likely eliminate stable coins and some other shit coins, unlikely this happens until later in Biden tenure.....Second point here, Gensler, Saylor and now MIT is fully immersed in developing US policy crypto....All of the above are Bitcoin maximalist who would be fine layering on BTC protocol...ie lightening network...I can't make my point enough to pay attention here and figure out what is going on.

3) Jpow stated he felt Fed Chairs should not own individual securities, so, this will likely cause a shake up for future leaders in the Fed...currently federal reserve is practically run by Goldman Sachs Alums...now the gig might be up, ....have to wonder if certain ppl would take these positions if it hurts their bottom line.



I have a wedge completing on VIX in December already and now this coincides with a fed announcement, bur, Market is going to do what it does and not ask permission...

Covid as always is the joker...I have been seeing a lot more older people back in the hospital, who got their covid shot in Jan/Feb, gasping for air...assuming we can get enough vulnerable ppl in for booster before november we could avoid what is happening in the south and other low vaccinated areas in the north this winter...If this happens economy can keep climbing the hill and Fed would be fine with nuking us with taper

[Slurry Pumper]

Well the SPY filled the gap from MONDAY. The hourly chart is looking like they are going to continue to push north. How about the gap from last FRIDAY at 447? Back below 441 on short term candle closes such as 10 to 15 minute one makes this wrong and maybe the sell the rip crowd comes back on the field.

[homie1975]

china real estate
inflation
fed
crazy high earnings expectations

so WTH was today's market rip all about ??

[Slurry Pumper]

china real estate
inflation
fed
crazy high earnings expectations

so WTH was today's market rip all about ??

This is a time of great fear for me. I'm sitting here looking at charts and some of them are in line with a continued move north while others are telling me to get ready for lower lows.
I think today's rip is all about the buy the dip crowd coming in and doing their thing. It seems fake to me but I think they continue to 447 before the rug gets yanked.
There is another catalyst next week right at the end of the month with the debt ceiling. That will move the market when or if they do not come up with a deal by next Thursday. If the congress makes a deal I think we have a giant rocket ride coming, but if they let the decision go down to the wire and a little past, I think we could see a real drop in the market.

I gotta think that they will come around to borrow more cash and keep this thing going in the end, but it all depends on when they do it. I'm targeting Thursday for the rug being pulled out, maybe next Tuesday as well. Tomorrow I think the market floats to 447 there about. Monday is another gap up maybe and a floater. Then the roller coaster can start.

This is all just speculation as I have charts that are pointing different ways, and having a hard time determining which way things will go.

[homie1975]

Yday I moved some money into positions I already had open which were sitting close to where I opened them at mos ago.

Still sitting w plenty of dry powder in the war chest ready to deploy if we can the drawdown I'm looking for in the next few weeks or month.

[trobin31]

Have been busy and not much time for trading, swinging, just been dollar cost averaging into PATH BNGO mostly this week as well as a lot of Ethereum.


yields are rising very steeply, and for most part looks like Covid is controlled in Europe. Airline and travel charts look really good, I grabbed some TRVG and SAVE.

[homie1975]

The Bull Market climbs The Wall of Worry..

[trobin31]

I see end of quarter window dressing, might even leak into eoy, take from the winners and add to the losers, probably means IWM + DIA > SPY +QQQ.

Also with yields rising rotation from tech to value narrative should pick up.

Oil on its way to $100 hopefully.

Uranium making a pit stop before next leg up,

watch for capitulation bottom in tech in Late fall just in time for COVID scares to ramp up in winter.

[RoyBacon]

Homie you loading up on your Hogs +18???

Tough day for bonds. Not worried however.

Added more Baba and Coin...two dogs that will one day grow up to be super models.

[homie1975]

I see end of quarter window dressing, might even leak into eoy, take from the winners and add to the losers, probably means IWM + DIA > SPY +QQQ.

Also with yields rising rotation from tech to value narrative should pick up.

Oil on its way to $100 hopefully.

Uranium making a pit stop before next leg up,

watch for capitulation bottom in tech in Late fall just in time for COVID scares to ramp up in winter.

Typical Sept end, Q3 stuff right? maybe because of the weakness we found prior to last week for the prior three weeks, we actually see a little more strength these last 3-4 days than usual ??

[homie1975]

Homie you loading up on your Hogs +18???

Tough day for bonds. Not worried however.

Added more Baba and Coin...two dogs that will one day grow up to be super models.

the heck with the 'Hogs!

where have you been? you have been missed !

kindly give us your take on what happened over the past few weeks that you were out !!

[RoyBacon]

the heck with the 'Hogs!

where have you been? you have been missed !

kindly give us your take on what happened over the past few weeks that you were out !!

I threw the towel in on PFE today. Can't believe it worked itself down from 52 to 43 in the middle of a fugging pandemic.

These supply chain shortages are taking their toll. From chips to spare parts. The good news is it's temporary, the bad news is temporary is defined by 2-3 years. Valuations are starting to be scrutinized.

[Slurry Pumper]

So I was targeting 447 for this dead cat, and by the way I don't like that term I think it should be call the suckers rally. Because this is where allot of suckers get sucked in and then the rug gets pulled out from under them. I'll just take my profits from the rip like I did today and then see if I can start selling.
Today was an inside day and the overall market is giving all kinds of signals that it can go either way.

1. If the SPY can manage to go sideways for a while it can get to the 447 gap and end up over the moving average and close there, they could move back up to reach the all time highs again. I put this as a maybe.

2. We could wake up and see the SPY move down on Tuesday, and in this case it will need to break below 440 on hourly closes for the signal of more downward movement and then the weekly SPY number of 335 will be in play and if that is given up for a weekly close, then that will break the uptrend for the weekly chart which means probably 420 is in the near future. Again I put the odds of this in the maybe camp.

3. So what I think is most likely is the market will start off down and it will have the look as they are going to kill the market and watch out below. Watch for a spike of 440, but they really need to close hourly candles below that 440, for me to start believing in it. So if they can't get below 440 I think there is another leg higher and back up to the 447 level to challenge the gap at that level by the end o the week. I think this is the most likely scenario. A move down before a rip back up by the end of the week.

There's several things going on that can be a catalyst this week, and I would just advise others to do nothing if you can help it.

[homie1975]

Debt Ceiling deal reached or not reached looks like it will be this week's big catalyst..

[homie1975]

D2er where are you?

worst day for the 'DAQ since March. come on out, man !!

anywhooo......headwinds still there..........

[RoyBacon]

Pretty bloody out there.

I picked up some BTT. Basically like a tax free money market.

It's all about valuations amid shortages. Folks bought energy today.

[d2bets]

D2er where are you?

worst day for the 'DAQ since March. come on out, man !!

anywhooo......headwinds still there..........

Yo! I'm done with stock market predictions. You pretty much know what I think, but I'm always wrong, so there's that.

[RoyBacon]

Money is a bit on the run for now.

The upcoming corp tax hikes, higher cost of goods(inflation) and inability to turn inventory(supply chain issues) will hit the stretched valuations the hardest although nothing is immune.

But, money still needs a home. Up 170 in the pre.

[RoyBacon]

Money is a bit on the run for now.

The upcoming corp tax hikes, higher cost of goods(inflation) and inability to turn inventory(supply chain issues) will hit the stretched valuations the hardest although nothing is immune.

But, money still needs a home. Up 170 in the pre.

Well fvvk Roy, we know all that. Tell us where to start ya jackoff!

OK, how about TRTN?

...and what the fvvk do they do?

They lease these guys and business is booming. They also pay a 4.5% dividend.

[homie1975]

Money is a bit on the run for now.

The upcoming corp tax hikes, higher cost of goods(inflation) and inability to turn inventory(supply chain issues) will hit the stretched valuations the hardest although nothing is immune.

But, money still needs a home. Up 170 in the pre.

Bingo.

and more savings per capita than any time in history.

and less credit card debt than any time in history.

stonks only go up right?

in the near term (2-3 years) i do not see any correction / sell-off going too far north of ~8% overall, max.

stonks are still the best game in town for the masses in terms of places to park money for max gains.

let's see. (famous last words)