Sports books are showing signs that they want baseball to end...

[stevenash]

Thanks man I made 1400$ on that weidman fight + 700 on WNBA all star overs + my other UFC fights+ bases had to have manager approval on my payout @ Westgate/LVH(stupid cashing out all at once I won't do that again)

Was going to post screen shots because it looked bad ass hitting +145 for that much.

But I was too drunk and lazy after pounding since noon.

But if anybody calls bullshit I still have pics of the tickets and will take the time to photobucket it.

Money to be made on beaver ball. NCAA women, WNBA, what have you.
It's like the books don't really know exactly where to set the lines.

[RichardBrocco]

Books got crushed in nfl last year

I wonder what they have in store for the masses to reboubd

[jjgold]

Gamblers want baseball 10 because it destroyed them

[ManOfValue]

Good discussion, however I don't know how you can come to the conclusion that books are dying for bb to end based on their moneyline spreads. 5 - 10 years back everybody had a 20 cent line. I know back then it seems books got killed season after season on bases but that has changed. Lines are much sharper now. Its true the progressive dime line used by many go up a bit above -150 but thats even better than what it was in years past. most go pk to -124 10 cents then -125 to -160 or so 15cents then maybe 20 cents till -185 and so on. Before it was 20 cents from pick to -185.

[KVB]

Overall, I disagree that the MLB lines are "sharper."

Yesterday I uncovered 7 MLB plays with value enough to trigger bets. That's the most I've uncovered since the beginning of betting this season.

The books have been taking positions from the start of the season and still are to this day. Stay ahead of the market guys, don't let it catch up to you. If it does, get out or adjust. I've posted about the nature of the books and the MLB markets earlier this season.


There are plenty of experienced bettors with angles still working in the MLB markets, some have dropped by this thread.

As far as prices go, depending on your method of capping, if you cap at all, some bettors are getting shorted while others are able to take advantage of the situation.

[RudyRuetigger]

Good discussion, however I don't know how you can come to the conclusion that books are dying for bb to end based on their moneyline spreads. 5 - 10 years back everybody had a 20 cent line. I know back then it seems books got killed season after season on bases but that has changed. Lines are much sharper now. Its true the progressive dime line used by many go up a bit above -150 but thats even better than what it was in years past. most go pk to -124 10 cents then -125 to -160 or so 15cents then maybe 20 cents till -185 and so on. Before it was 20 cents from pick to -185.

post to sbr username is too accurate

leave rangefinder and kvb alone

why add sense?

[RudyRuetigger]

Overall, I disagree that the MLB lines are "sharper."

oh, what a fukkin coincidence

[stevenash]

Books got crushed in nfl last year

Know why?

Because good teams covered the line more so than not, and the bad teams didn't cover.
It's a simple as that.

If you bet the better team last year in the NFL all season, you won.

Proof.

Every good team last year (except the Texans, if you consider them good) was over .500 against the spread last season.
Conversely, every shitty team last season, except the Saints, were below .500

Ergo, just bet the better teams, more than likely they cash.

Against the Spread Rankings NFL ATS RANKINGS Straight-Up Against The Spread Over/Under Team Total ↑ Home Away Total Home Away Total Home Away New England Patriots 14-2-0 6-2-0 8-0-0 13-3-0 6-2-0 7-1-0 6-10-0 4-4-0 2-6-0 Dallas Cowboys 13-3-0 7-1-0 6-2-0 10-5-1 5-2-1 5-3-0 6-10-0 4-4-0 2-6-0 Oakland Raiders 12-4-0 6-2-0 6-2-0 10-6-0 4-4-0 6-2-0 11-5-0 7-1-0 4-4-0 Kansas City Chiefs 12-4-0 6-2-0 6-2-0 9-7-0 3-5-0 6-2-0 6-10-0 2-6-0 4-4-0 Atlanta Falcons 11-5-0 5-3-0 6-2-0 10-6-0 3-5-0 7-1-0 13-2-1 8-0-0 5-2-1 Pittsburgh Steelers 11-5-0 6-2-0 5-3-0 9-7-0 4-4-0 5-3-0 6-10-0 4-4-0 2-6-0 New York Giants 11-5-0 7-1-0 4-4-0 8-6-2 5-3-0 3-3-2 4-12-0 3-5-0 1-7-0 Seattle Seahawks 10-5-1 7-1-0 3-4-1 7-8-1 4-3-1 3-5-0 9-7-0 5-3-0 4-4-0 Green Bay Packers 10-6-0 6-2-0 4-4-0 9-6-1 5-2-1 4-4-0 10-6-0 4-4-0 6-2-0 Miami Dolphins 10-6-0 6-2-0 4-4-0 8-6-2 3-3-2 5-3-0 12-4-0 7-1-0 5-3-0 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-7-0 4-4-0 5-3-0 9-7-0 3-5-0 6-2-0 7-8-1 4-4-0 3-4-1 Denver Broncos 9-7-0 5-3-0 4-4-0 9-7-0 5-3-0 4-4-0 7-9-0 4-4-0 3-5-0 Houston Texans 9-7-0 7-1-0 2-6-0 6-9-1 4-3-1 2-6-0 6-9-1 3-5-0 3-4-1 Tennessee Titans 9-7-0 5-3-0 4-4-0 7-9-0 4-4-0 3-5-0 10-5-1 5-2-1 5-3-0 Detroit Lions 9-7-0 6-2-0 3-5-0 7-8-1 4-3-1 3-5-0 6-10-0 3-5-0 3-5-0 Washington Redskins 8-7-1 4-4-0 4-3-1 10-6-0 4-4-0 6-2-0 12-4-0 6-2-0 6-2-0 Indianapolis Colts 8-8-0 4-4-0 4-4-0 7-8-1 3-5-0 4-3-1 9-7-0 2-6-0 7-1-0 Baltimore Ravens 8-8-0 6-2-0 2-6-0 7-8-1 5-3-0 2-5-1 7-9-0 3-5-0 4-4-0 Minnesota Vikings 8-8-0 5-3-0 3-5-0 9-7-0 6-2-0 3-5-0 7-9-0 3-5-0 4-4-0 Arizona Cardinals 7-8-1 4-3-1 3-5-0 6-10-0 3-5-0 3-5-0 10-6-0 2-6-0 8-0-0 New Orleans Saints 7-9-0 4-4-0 3-5-0 11-5-0 4-4-0 7-1-0 9-7-0 5-3-0 4-4-0 Buffalo Bills 7-9-0 4-4-0 3-5-0 6-9-1 3-5-0 3-4-1 12-4-0 8-0-0 4-4-0 Philadelphia Eagles 7-9-0 6-2-0 1-7-0 8-8-0 6-2-0 2-6-0 8-7-1 2-6-0 6-1-1 Cincinnati Bengals 6-9-1 4-3-1 2-6-0 6-9-1 4-4-0 2-5-1 6-10-0 4-4-0 2-6-0 Carolina Panthers 6-10-0 4-4-0 2-6-0 6-9-1 3-5-0 3-4-1 7-8-1 2-5-1 5-3-0 New York Jets 5-11-0 2-6-0 3-5-0 6-8-2 3-4-1 3-4-1 7-9-0 4-4-0 3-5-0 Los Angeles Chargers 5-11-0 3-5-0 2-6-0 7-9-0 3-5-0 4-4-0 9-6-1 5-2-1 4-4-0 Los Angeles Rams 4-12-0 1-7-0 3-5-0 4-10-2 1-6-1 3-4-1 7-9-0 4-4-0 3-5-0 Chicago Bears 3-13-0 3-5-0 0-8-0 7-9-0 5-3-0 2-6-0 7-8-1 3-4-1 4-4-0 Jacksonville Jaguars 3-13-0 2-6-0 1-7-0 7-8-1 2-5-1 5-3-0 10-6-0 6-2-0 4-4-0 San Francisco 49ers 2-14-0 1-7-0 1-7-0 4-11-1 2-6-0 2-5-1 10-6-0 4-4-0 6-2-0 Cleveland Browns 1-15-0 1-7-0 0-8-0 4-12-0 1-7-0 3-5-0 8-8-0 2-6-0 6-2-0

Against the Spread Rankings NFL ATS RANKINGS Straight-Up Against The Spread Over/Under Team Total ↑ Home Away Total Home Away Total Home Away New England Patriots 14-2-0 6-2-0 8-0-0 13-3-0 6-2-0 7-1-0 6-10-0 4-4-0 2-6-0 Dallas Cowboys 13-3-0 7-1-0 6-2-0 10-5-1 5-2-1 5-3-0 6-10-0 4-4-0 2-6-0 Oakland Raiders 12-4-0 6-2-0 6-2-0 10-6-0 4-4-0 6-2-0 11-5-0 7-1-0 4-4-0 Kansas City Chiefs 12-4-0 6-2-0 6-2-0 9-7-0 3-5-0 6-2-0 6-10-0 2-6-0 4-4-0 Atlanta Falcons 11-5-0 5-3-0 6-2-0 10-6-0 3-5-0 7-1-0 13-2-1 8-0-0 5-2-1 Pittsburgh Steelers 11-5-0 6-2-0 5-3-0 9-7-0 4-4-0 5-3-0 6-10-0 4-4-0 2-6-0 New York Giants 11-5-0 7-1-0 4-4-0 8-6-2 5-3-0 3-3-2 4-12-0 3-5-0 1-7-0 Seattle Seahawks 10-5-1 7-1-0 3-4-1 7-8-1 4-3-1 3-5-0 9-7-0 5-3-0 4-4-0 Green Bay Packers 10-6-0 6-2-0 4-4-0 9-6-1 5-2-1 4-4-0 10-6-0 4-4-0 6-2-0 Miami Dolphins 10-6-0 6-2-0 4-4-0 8-6-2 3-3-2 5-3-0 12-4-0 7-1-0 5-3-0 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-7-0 4-4-0 5-3-0 9-7-0 3-5-0 6-2-0 7-8-1 4-4-0 3-4-1 Denver Broncos 9-7-0 5-3-0 4-4-0 9-7-0 5-3-0 4-4-0 7-9-0 4-4-0 3-5-0 Houston Texans 9-7-0 7-1-0 2-6-0 6-9-1 4-3-1 2-6-0 6-9-1 3-5-0 3-4-1 Tennessee Titans 9-7-0 5-3-0 4-4-0 7-9-0 4-4-0 3-5-0 10-5-1 5-2-1 5-3-0 Detroit Lions 9-7-0 6-2-0 3-5-0 7-8-1 4-3-1 3-5-0 6-10-0 3-5-0 3-5-0 Washington Redskins 8-7-1 4-4-0 4-3-1 10-6-0 4-4-0 6-2-0 12-4-0 6-2-0 6-2-0 Indianapolis Colts 8-8-0 4-4-0 4-4-0 7-8-1 3-5-0 4-3-1 9-7-0 2-6-0 7-1-0 Baltimore Ravens 8-8-0 6-2-0 2-6-0 7-8-1 5-3-0 2-5-1 7-9-0 3-5-0 4-4-0 Minnesota Vikings 8-8-0 5-3-0 3-5-0 9-7-0 6-2-0 3-5-0 7-9-0 3-5-0 4-4-0 Arizona Cardinals 7-8-1 4-3-1 3-5-0 6-10-0 3-5-0 3-5-0 10-6-0 2-6-0 8-0-0 New Orleans Saints 7-9-0 4-4-0 3-5-0 11-5-0 4-4-0 7-1-0 9-7-0 5-3-0 4-4-0 Buffalo Bills 7-9-0 4-4-0 3-5-0 6-9-1 3-5-0 3-4-1 12-4-0 8-0-0 4-4-0 Philadelphia Eagles 7-9-0 6-2-0 1-7-0 8-8-0 6-2-0 2-6-0 8-7-1 2-6-0 6-1-1 Cincinnati Bengals 6-9-1 4-3-1 2-6-0 6-9-1 4-4-0 2-5-1 6-10-0 4-4-0 2-6-0 Carolina Panthers 6-10-0 4-4-0 2-6-0 6-9-1 3-5-0 3-4-1 7-8-1 2-5-1 5-3-0 New York Jets 5-11-0 2-6-0 3-5-0 6-8-2 3-4-1 3-4-1 7-9-0 4-4-0 3-5-0 Los Angeles Chargers 5-11-0 3-5-0 2-6-0 7-9-0 3-5-0 4-4-0 9-6-1 5-2-1 4-4-0 Los Angeles Rams 4-12-0 1-7-0 3-5-0 4-10-2 1-6-1 3-4-1 7-9-0 4-4-0 3-5-0 Chicago Bears 3-13-0 3-5-0 0-8-0 7-9-0 5-3-0 2-6-0 7-8-1 3-4-1 4-4-0 Jacksonville Jaguars 3-13-0 2-6-0 1-7-0 7-8-1 2-5-1 5-3-0 10-6-0 6-2-0 4-4-0 San Francisco 49ers 2-14-0 1-7-0 1-7-0 4-11-1 2-6-0 2-5-1 10-6-0 4-4-0 6-2-0 Cleveland Browns 1-15-0 1-7-0 0-8-0 4-12-0 1-7-0 3-5-0 8-8-0 2-6-0 6-2-0

[lakerboy]

Bottomline is that books don't care if squares win. They focus on destroying sharp players who bet the most$$$ wise. Sharps are losing and books love it

[jjgold]

Laker man strong post

[stevenash]

Bottomline is that books don't care if squares win. They focus on destroying sharp players who bet the most$$$ wise. Sharps are losing and books love it

I guess it's hip to be square.
Sharps trying to out think the books all last season when the square favorites have been covering week in, week out.

[jamesjMidwest]

Books got killed in NFL on parlay cards last year with all the favorites covering. Rumor had it that they were going to lower parlay payouts on football but don't know. They said it was one of the few years books lost money for the year on NFL.

[semibluff]

As far as I recollect books had a tough time with the NFL during the playoffs but i didn't see that in the regular season, at least not on the money lines which is what I was concentrating on. If you bet every favourite, every underdog, every home team, or every road team as a money line punter you got remarkably similar results.

One line that I will throw out there for people is NFL home teams have a higher winning % in the 1st 8 weeks of the season than they do in the last 8 weeks of the season. 5th consecutive year for that stat.

[stevenash]

One line that I will throw out there for people is NFL home teams have a higher winning % in the 1st 8 weeks of the season than they do in the last 8 weeks of the season. 5th consecutive year for that stat.

I'm a stat head and I never knew that one.
Good to know.

[ManOfValue]

Bottomline is that books don't care if squares win. They focus on destroying sharp players who bet the most$$$ wise. Sharps are losing and books love it

Right. And most of the inneficiencies have been ironed out. 10 years ago "sharps" were crushing lines where bookies opened -4 on a first half for a game spread of -8. Now that -4 may be -5 basex on that same spread. There will always be value for the guy who knows what hes doing because books will always move on bets. Or most others may move off cris's bets.

[jjgold]

All books move off pinnacle around the world all on air before they even take a bet

[semibluff]

I'm a stat head and I never knew that one.
Good to know.

2016 Games Home wins Road wins win %
Weeks 1-8 120 70 50 58.33333
Week 9 13 7 6
weeks 10-17 123 71 52 57.72358
256 148 108
256 256
57.8125 42.1875


2015 Games Home wins Road wins
Weeks 1-8 119 68 51 57.14286
Week 9 13 9 4
weeks 10-17 124 61 63 49.19355
256 138 118
256 256
53.90625 46.09375


2014 Games Home wins Road wins
Weeks 1-8 121 71.5 49.5 59.09091
Week 9 13 8 5
weeks 10-17 122 66 56 54.09836
256 145.5 110.5
256 256
56.83594 43.16406


2013 Games Home wins Road wins
Weeks 1-8 120 74 46 61.66667
Week 9 13 8 5
weeks 10-17 123 71.5 51.5 58.13008
256 153.5 102.5
256 256
59.96094 40.03906


2012 Games Home wins Road wins
Weeks 1-8 118 70 48 59.32203
Week 9 14 7 7
weeks 10-17 124 70 54 56.45161
256 147 109
256 256
57.42188 42.57813

I would rather have post the info as an Excel attachment, but I don't have attachment privileges. Apologies if the info isn't clear. There are 4 tied games in the data including 2 in the early part of 2016. For win/lose % i've counted ties as a half win, half loss.

[goduke]

Your'e cherry picking one night and not looking at the overall picture.
But why should I expect different from an asshole like you.

5 one run games today out of 14 so far today. So only have to avoid 35 percent of the games today to win with your fail safe method. I wonder if this incredible plan will be as good as you bailing on your dodgers thread you were suppose to keep track of?

[stevenash]

5 one run games today out of 14 so far today. So only have to avoid 35 percent of the games today to win with your fail safe method. I wonder if this incredible plan will be as good as you bailing on your dodgers thread you were suppose to keep track of?

Instead of taking the time to troll me, sorry I'm not a homo I don't go that way, so lose the heard on for me, anyway instead of taking the time to troll me, go back to the beginning of the month and tell me how many games were decided by two or more runs.

And you're the one calling me out, so do the work and get back to me.

Oh, sorry, I missed 2 out of 5 days, so it was difficult to catch up on that thread, and since when to I answer to you any way jackass?

[stevenash]

5 one run games today out of 14 so far today. So only have to avoid 35 percent of the games today to win with your fail safe method.

I'll start you off.

July 2 12 out 15 games were decided by 2 or more runs
July 3 9 out of 10 were
July 4 10 out of 15 were
July 5 10 out of 14 were
July 6 10 out of 11 were
July 7 12 out of 15 were
July 8 9 out of 15 were

95 games were played in the first week of July.
72 of them were determined by more than one run.
Up here in New England we call that a majority.
76 percent of the games were decided by 2 or more runs, most of them were what we call blowouts.

Second week of July.

July 9 14 out of 15 games were decided by 2 or more runs
July 10 12 out of 15 games were

ALL STAR BREAK

July 14 10 out of 15 were
July 15 10 out of 15 were
July 16 13 out of 15 were

Out of the 75 games played in week 2 in July, 59 of those games were decided by two or more runs
Are you capable of simple math, if you are you would know that would be 79 percent.

That's pretty convincing wouldn't you say?

Now if you add 75 and 95 you get 170
Follow along here ass wipe, if you add 72 and 59 you get 131

If you divide 131 by 170 what's your answer?
I'll spare you the brain cells.

77 percent of all games played in the first two baseball weeks in July were determined by 2 or more runs.

You remind me of the few that wait for me to post a losing play right after I go on a five game winning streak to troll me.

I'll say it one more time, you don't cherry pick a few days then say your theory is garbage, after I just proved you wrong for what? the 999th time on these here message boards.

Are you not tired of me taking you to back of the woodshed?

Now get out of my face.
I'll even say it nicely, please get out of my face, fuckface.

[biggie12]

Its very ironic but JJ got the most relevant posts in this thread

[stevenash]

Its very ironic but JJ got the most relevant posts in this thread

Go figure.

[Waterstpub87]

JJ is pretty wise, if you look past certain things. Actually has a very strong knowledge of finance.

[stevenash]

JJ is pretty wise, if you look past certain things. Actually has a very strong knowledge of finance.

But he has no hair.
He'll tell you that's because grass don't grow on a busy street.

[goduke]

I'll start you off.

July 2 12 out 15 games were decided by 2 or more runs
July 3 9 out of 10 were
July 4 10 out of 15 were
July 5 10 out of 14 were
July 6 10 out of 11 were
July 7 12 out of 15 were
July 8 9 out of 15 were

95 games were played in the first week of July.
72 of them were determined by more than one run.
Up here in New England we call that a majority.
76 percent of the games were decided by 2 or more runs, most of them were what we call blowouts.

Second week of July.

July 9 14 out of 15 games were decided by 2 or more runs
July 10 12 out of 15 games were

ALL STAR BREAK

July 14 10 out of 15 were
July 15 10 out of 15 were
July 16 13 out of 15 were

Out of the 75 games played in week 2 in July, 59 of those games were decided by two or more runs
Are you capable of simple math, if you are you would know that would be 79 percent.

That's pretty convincing wouldn't you say?

Now if you add 75 and 95 you get 170
Follow along here ass wipe, if you add 72 and 59 you get 131

If you divide 131 by 170 what's your answer?
I'll spare you the brain cells.

77 percent of all games played in the first two baseball weeks in July were determined by 2 or more runs.

You remind me of the few that wait for me to post a losing play right after I go on a five game winning streak to troll me.

I'll say it one more time, you don't cherry pick a few days then say your theory is garbage, after I just proved you wrong for what? the 999th time on these here message boards.

Are you not tired of me taking you to back of the woodshed?

Now get out of my face.
I'll even say it nicely, please get out of my face, fuckface.

All you do is post losing plays. Dude whenever you post anything it's garbage. You act like you know everything about baseball yet every time you make a case for something or a play on here you lose. My point to the one run thing wasn't that it hasn't been happening, it's that the minute you said something it went to dogshit. You are one of the worse here and always have been. Your stuck up Connecticut attitude was the reason I originally disliked you and the fact that you think you are never wrong when you are most of the time on here is just another reason to add to it.

[stevenash]

All you do is post losing plays. Dude whenever you post anything it's garbage. You act like you know everything about baseball yet every time you make a case for something or a play on here you lose. My point to the one run thing wasn't that it hasn't been happening, it's that the minute you said something it went to dogshit. You are one of the worse here and always have been. Your stuck up Connecticut attitude was the reason I originally disliked you and the fact that you think you are never wrong when you are most of the time on here is just another reason to add to it.

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