The Official 2017 CFL Thread

**KVB** · 08-18-17, 11:05 PM

Not much here with the halftime bet. In terms of the spread and moneyline, the teams managed to get us back to the closing line, which is less the extra half point.

No halftime bet indicated here.

**Coolcanuck79** · 08-18-17, 11:07 PM

I sprinkled a little on the over 27.5 2h -105

**KVB** · 08-18-17, 11:20 PM

Thinking out loud, I'll say that with the market seeming to sell BC pre game and those live lines hanging out there like they did, BC, especially the winner, seems a little suspect.

But the pressure for the underdog to at least cover the spread here is getting pretty heavy, some of which I discussed earlier.

**Coolcanuck79** · 08-18-17, 11:31 PM

I hope it comes to fruition with the +3.5 and +9.5 I have. I might have to concede the over in the 2h but it will be worth it.

**KVB** · 08-18-17, 11:34 PM

Originally posted by Coolcanuck79

I hope it comes to fruition with the +3.5 and +9.5 I have. I might have to concede the over in the 2h but it will be worth it.

I think that 9.5 is going to be good, BC came to play. Now let's get the +3.5.

**Coolcanuck79** · 08-18-17, 11:36 PM

Originally posted by KVB

I think that 9.5 is going to be good, BC came to play. Now let's get the +3.5.

**KVB** · 08-18-17, 11:49 PM

Originally posted by teaserpleaser

It's down to 55 here in Vegas...

Any extra information out of Vegas is always welcome in this thread.

The same goes for you Canadians with info on the ground and at the stadiums, weather, etc. Sometimes things work best when the market analysis lines up with that on the ground info. With the CFL that nasty wind and weather is always coming into play.

**Coolcanuck79** · 08-18-17, 11:56 PM

For sure! I will start to chime in on Red Blacks home games re: weather, etc.

**Coolcanuck79** · 08-19-17, 12:14 AM

Got some late action at +205 on BC.

**Coolcanuck79** · 08-19-17, 12:28 AM

Need a BC TD for the 2h over, BC ML and +3.5 cover. C'mon!

**KVB** · 08-19-17, 12:30 AM

Pressure on BC here, a lot of money has gone their way tonight.

**Hngkng** · 08-19-17, 12:36 AM

Dang, feel bad for those that had 3.5; I thought that convert from BC went in, but refs called it wide.

**CHOICE** · 08-19-17, 12:40 AM

The gap between Mike Reilly and every other CFL QB is comical. Put him on Calgary and they don't lose a game all year.

**Hngkng** · 08-19-17, 12:52 AM

Originally posted by CHOICE

The gap between Mike Reilly and every other CFL QB is comical. Put him on Calgary and they don't lose a game all year.

Bo looks injured out there

**Art Vandelay** · 08-19-17, 12:57 AM

Originally posted by Hngkng

Bo looks injured out there

Bo's worst game of the year and they still beat a tough team on the road. Long way to go but I don't see the Stamps being denied the Cup this season.

**CHOICE** · 08-19-17, 01:02 AM

Originally posted by Art Vandelay

Bo's worst game of the year and they still beat a tough team on the road. Long way to go but I don't see the Stamps being denied the Cup this season.

Maybe they won't lose to a team with a losing record in the Grey Cup this year.

**KVB** · 08-19-17, 02:28 PM

The sharp forecast gives Montreal the win with 30 points to Toronto’s 23 or 24 points.

The stacking forecast gives Montreal the same win with 30 points to Toronto’s 24 points. Less sophisticated methods show a game in the low 40’s but can be split on the winner. The non-predictive public gauge has Montreal winning 23-18.

After questions about Toronto’s QB the line opened with Toronto -3 and has moved toward the forecast. The Total opened at 52.5 and has seen pressure move away from the forecast, towards the lower non predictive numbers.

Despite the number of reasons to put pressure on Montreal, the money is a little split here. There are market metrics indicating money should be on Toronto, and even with the QB question, it’s there but the Montreal situation seems to draw from even more groups. In this environment, the hesitancy of the market on Toronto works in Toronto’s favor here, to a degree.

I’m not sure I have time to get into too many specifics but once again a number of factors are at play here. The most important is the sharp forecast and the story I started out telling yesterday. After Thursdays game I explained how I felt there would be short term forecast moneyline failure. I sought the BC Lions as the settlement but we were all a bit fooled on a market that has stretched out in multiple ways once again. The market moved with BC pressure and if you were reading, you know how it played out.

An upset never came but we saw a perfect sharp forecast effort against the spread and moneyline.

Now we see the sharp forecast predicting an upset, and of course, the line shifts that way on agreement from all the numbers as well as the unsophisticated market just seeking an upset. That last market can be enhanced easily by a +1.5 line and steam movement.

Pressure is on Montreal and I can list a number of reasons both contrarian and not based on the recent schedule and even the first game of this rematch. It’s a twisted market with a loaded gun this game should represent a settlement somewhat contrary to last week’s final game situation.

Last week it was an upset, this week I countered the forecast and the public movement and have picked up Toronto Argonauts -120 over Montreal Allouettes.

Montreal may cover the spread here, but I don’t see them winning this game in Toronto.

In terms of the Total, I am running some tests and looking at the possibility that this could be a down market for the sharp forecast, and it has been, but the persistence of the market is a little more of a story. I may be holding off on pressing the sharp forecast until further notice.

Good Luck.

**KVB** · 08-19-17, 02:34 PM

I have also picked up Toronto Argonauts -123 and -125 over Montreal Allouettes.

I’m stuffing the books relying on a “probable” QB in Toronto.

Good Luck.

**Booya711** · 08-19-17, 02:35 PM

Originally posted by KVB

I have also picked up Toronto Argonauts -123 and -125 over Montreal Allouettes.

I’m stuffing the books relying on a “probable” QB in Toronto.

Good Luck.

Im on the Argos ML at -125

**Kiddpokerr** · 08-19-17, 02:37 PM

Looks like I'm on an island today, guess whos gonna win

**KVB** · 08-19-17, 02:44 PM

Originally posted by Booya711

Im on the Argos ML at -125

BooooYaahh!

**KVB** · 08-19-17, 02:52 PM

Originally posted by Kiddpokerr

Looks like I'm on an island today, guess whos gonna win

There are a lot of bettors on that island and it's not without cause. Montreal looks good from so many perspectives.

BC couldn't handle the pressure yesterday and perhaps Montreal can today.

Historically speaking, this is a tough spot for any team. From a market perspective, in my opinion, it would have been better for Montreal to be at a pick 'em or even -1.

Could be a close one, could be an embarrassment for either team. I tend to think this will be a tough issue to settle, thus be close game but it's a bit of guess as this is the last game of the week.

**Kiddpokerr** · 08-19-17, 03:00 PM

Originally posted by KVB

There are a lot of bettors on that island and it's not without cause. Montreal looks good from so many perspectives.

BC couldn't handle the pressure yesterday and perhaps Montreal can today.

Historically speaking, this is a tough spot for any team. From a market perspective, in my opinion, it would have been better for Montreal to be at a pick 'em or even -1.

Could be a close one, could be an embarrassment for either team. I tend to think this will be a tough issue to settle, thus be close game but it's a bit of guess as this is the last game of the week.

Agreed, a lot of people were giving Hamilton a lot of chances too and look what happened, lets just watch see.

**Hngkng** · 08-19-17, 03:00 PM

I personally am passing on this. Good luck to you all!

**Coolcanuck79** · 08-19-17, 03:10 PM

Me too. Avoiding the sides but like the under.

**Hngkng** · 08-19-17, 03:11 PM

Originally posted by Coolcanuck79

Me too. Avoiding the sides but like the under.

This is my lean, Montreal runs a lot, so the clock runs more on them. But I don't know which Argos offense shows up today.

**KVB** · 08-19-17, 03:18 PM

I was hoping Montreal would flip this LIVE moneyline or even give us an even money bet for Toronto to win.

In this situation, if it doesn't happen early that could bode well for Toronto, regardless of whether Toronto scores first.

It's one of the few bold plays where I don't mind scoring first.

**Kiddpokerr** · 08-19-17, 03:22 PM

Love TO scoring 1st, spread for Mon looks golden now, adding some ML obviously.

**Jayvegas420** · 08-19-17, 03:33 PM

Originally posted by Hngkng

I personally am passing on this. Good luck to you all!

Originally posted by Coolcanuck79

Me too. Avoiding the sides but like the under.

**KVB** · 08-19-17, 03:37 PM

Originally posted by Kiddpokerr

Love TO scoring 1st, spread for Mon looks golden now, adding some ML obviously.

Originally posted by KVB

...In this situation, if it doesn't happen early that could bode well for Toronto, regardless of whether Toronto scores first.

It's one of the few bold plays where I don't mind scoring first...

The spread is one thing, but be careful of the moneyline. This reminds me of the weak poker hand that looks like it has potential so we get sucked along throwing money in the pot.

To me, in this situation, the Montreal moneyline feels like one of those suck along hands.

Montreal looked good, and only looked sweeter live. It's my belief that this is why Toronto scored first.

If not for this potential situation, I would have predicted Montreal to score first and Toronto to come from behind in the original post. That thinking has to do with the positions of the bettors relative to the line.

It's not what they bring, it's how they bring it.

**Kiddpokerr** · 08-19-17, 03:49 PM

10-4 bud, stats looks the same though exc. the TD

**Kiddpokerr** · 08-19-17, 03:59 PM

Good call KVB, shoud'vd replied in my thread earlier to save me some money but overall thanks for the insight.

**Hngkng** · 08-24-17, 05:42 PM

I like the under tonight. What side is everyone on?

**KVB** · 08-24-17, 05:47 PM

The sharp forecast gives Winnipeg the slight edge with 36 or 37 points to Montreal’s 34 or 36 points.

The stacking forecast has Winnipeg winning with 34 or 36 points to Montreal’s 22 points. Depending on numbers used I see unsophisticated methods near each of the above forecasts and some even give Montreal a one point edge with totals just higher than the offered line of 54.5. The public gauge has Winnipeg winning 28 to 26.

This line opened very early with Winnipeg -2.5 and was picked up around the world at about Winnipeg -1, where it sits now.

As far as the offered spread goes, it’s essentially right with the sharp forecast.

Montreal was under a lot pf pressure at the end of last week and ended up folding to a 38-6 loss. Because of the circumstances last week, bettors want that back money back and are taking the Montreal position while the Winnipeg gets hit by the public and as well as other decision makers representing methods like the stacking forecast.

Outside of some market analyst money hitting Montreal many metrics are split here and bets on the side or moneyline are a sure gamble.

It’s not that the market is tight, because the line has prevented some major traders from entering.

I’m passing on this spread and moneyline as I think we stand to learn more about the flow of money with tonight’s results. Having the ability to pass, something the book for the most part does not have, is a significant advantage and today we exercise that advantage.

The Total opened at the public gauge and ticked upward slightly.

Originally posted by KVB

...In terms of the Total, I am running some tests and looking at the possibility that this could be a down market for the sharp forecast, and it has been, but the persistence of the market is a little more of a story. I may be holding off on pressing the sharp forecast until further notice...

The public is on the Over a bit here and I tend to agree with them. Tonight I am holding off on pressing the sharp forecast for a bold trading play. I think the forecast is good tonight, but I don’t have the metrics to make it an additional trade outside of the standing forecast.

**Jayvegas420** · 08-24-17, 05:49 PM

I'm on over 55.5