wtf??
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For those of you that believe this will go to 50k, and I'm not saying it won't, how would that affect the economy?
Everyone and their mother that I know will be a multi-millionaire. And we all know that eventually Crytos are exchanged back into local currency.
On the flip side someone has to be the bag holder at the end. Who will that be?Comment -
Why?
There is always so much guesswork with these cryptos, but there should be a theory behind an estimation.
BTC and BCH is not exactly simple stuff, it's complicated and I don't know it all, but it seems to me that BCH is becoming more profitable for minors, so they are switching their equipment over to BCH. Therefore fees are going up and the BTC network is slowing. I'm in the middle of sending a fair amount of BTC to and exchange to trade it for BCH and it's not even pending yet in the Exchanges wallet, it's been 3 hours. The BTC network is overloaded right now.
In my opinion (not an expert... who is really), BCH is in the process of surpassing BTC, and people are jumping off the BTC train.
I don't think BTC will plummet too much further tonight (I hope) because there is still demand for it. There payment systems in place for BTC and BCH.... But I imagine it wouldn't be too hard for companies receiving BTC payments to switch to BCH. And when people realize that BCH is cheaper and more efficient I think BTC will continue to go down.
Please take what I'm saying with a grain of salt... I'm only trying to justify what's happening and where it is all going I really don't know any of this stuff for sure.
If someone can contradict what I'm saying here please do.Comment -
Not a cheerleader for either side, but more of a pragmatist who's willing to critique. I read somewhere that BCH is due for their algorithm difficulty to be adjusted soon which will reduce some of the profit motivation for miners, but at this point it still probably won't severely hinder BCH's progress as long as BTC continues to have network congestion/high fee issues.
I don't think BTC is in immediate danger, but these recent events should serve as a warning for the core developers that something must be done soon with regards to the transaction times and mining fees (and I emphasize soon).
Only problem is when people bring up this warning, all I keep hearing from the BTC cheerleaders is that the lightning network is coming and will be the magic bullet to these issues. The only problem is they have been saying this for months and I still have yet to hear of a firm wide scale launch date for this system. There's going to be a point where people will get tired of waiting and simply move to an alternate coin and not look back. If the network does come online soon though, then BCH's progress will likely stop dead in its tracks.
Relating to the network congestion, there are also those complaining about criticisms similar to mine saying that Bitcoin was only supposed to be solely a store of value and not a payment network which jeopardizes de-centralization. If you want to argue that Bitcoin should only have 1 utility, being a storage of value, fine. However, I don't want to hear that the price of Bitcoin will continue to soar "to the moon" solely serving as a storage of value. if that's supposed to be its only utility, then it's extremely overpriced right now. If it wants to continue its meteoric rise, then it's going to have to also serve multiple utilities, including (in simple terms) as a quick and easy payment method.
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If I was simply looking for an asset that was only to serve as a store of value against the dollar in case of a crisis, then I would buy precious metals like gold and silver since it's a tangible asset I can hold in my hand (or in a safe) and it's not subject to a 51% attack or an outage from an EMP or power outage. Sure PMs have its own risks, but if you're saving it for a rainy day, Bitcoin is likely less ideal in rainy day situations where I need to access and liquidate those assets quick. Now PMs are not as easily divisible like Bitcoin and harder to spend (technically you could spend the American Eagle's as legal tender, but good luck finding a store that won't scrutinize you), but that's also what makes Bitcoin so attractive and much more valuable compared to precious metals because of the fact I can divide it up and spend it anywhere in the world as a payment method. However, if the issue of network congestion and high fees continue, the price is going to drop as people turn to alternates since the value of it being usable as a widely accepted fast and easy payment method will be gone and I doubt it will hold up to PMs strictly as a storage of value.
Technology, like time, will move forward and if core doesn't find a way to address these issues, there will be another technology that can solve this problem and people will move to that technology while leaving Bitcoin in the dust because they couldn't/wouldn't adapt (which is another rant for another time).Last edited by mrpapageorgio; 11-12-17, 04:32 AM.Comment -
Hello, friends! Sorry I've been away, but I just flew in this morning after 2 glorious weeks at Hedonism II, in Negril, Jamaica. I'll be getting back on the horse w/ all things, including SBR, by tonight/tomorrow-ish.
I see BTC's rebounded to 6400 this morning. Good, sell to cash. I'm sure PapaG, Raiders, Opti, TTT, Bsims, PaperTrail and Jake and the rest of the extremely bright crypto minds here have explained why selling BTC's the only option after the entire BU wing of the bitcoin community got phucked over with the cancellation of B2X, but if you've missed those posts, then sell your BTC on this spike to cash and we'll talk about the cataclysmic shifts in the BTC landscape and community (heh, now two distinct communities) over the past week or so once I'm unpacked and settled back in.Last edited by MeanPeopleSuck; 11-12-17, 08:36 AM.Comment -
Will BTC ride up thru 7500ish again?Comment -
Hi, Jake! Heh, heh, heh. Photography is, um, discouraged at Hedonism, but I did manage to sneak a few surreptitious photos.
Watching the dominatrix and her 3 slave boys walking around in full leather regalia, including collars and leashes and walking on all fours for the slaves, caught the eye on day 1, but by just a few days later it was business as usual -- I wasn't even giving them a second glance.
Weird how fast the crazy gets normalized!Comment -
In my opinion, no, not for a while, probably weeks and possibly months.
I think core's penetrating of BU for the millionth time might be the straw that broke the bitcoin community's back.
As of two days ago, for the first time EVER in my 3 years as a crypto trader, BTC is no longer my top crypto holding.Comment -
Why? Its just simple technical analysis, man. My predictions of 7800ish being the top and 5000 the bottoms aren't guesses, and I'm not psychic, its just where my chart says Bitcoin is going. https://i.imgur.com/xjtTzWk.jpg
Bitcoin cash isn't taking over Bitcoin, so please get that out of your mind. People said the same thing about ETH 6 months ago and that failed miserably. Bitcoin Cash is currently more profitable to mine than Bitcoin, but today their difficulty adjusts 400% and Bitcoin will then become almost twice as profitable to mine.
Just hang in there.
Don't panic, and definitely don't sell all your bitcoin for bitcoin cash. Within a week you'll see that was a bad ideaComment -
The app Stocktwits has nice live feed of traders talking about this stuff. Search for ticker symbol btc.x and bch.x. It's was crazy on there last night.Comment -
That's a hard question, but if you don't already own any BCH, my guess is to wait. Right now there's a stampede by all Bitcoin Unlimited (aka "big blocker") supporters to abandon BTC, which totally betrayed its promises to allow a B2X, and race over to BCH, the only remaining BU-spun off coin.
But now our anger driven buying craze has bid BCH up past any rational valuation when you look at its usage. The plan is to squeeze BTC users over to BCH by forcing higher and higher wait times and fees, but there's no guarantee they'll leave BTC to join us. Since most people won't know anything about the scalability wars waging in bitcoin, they're just as apt to choose Litecoin as us, so I'm not sure the plan will work.
(FWIW. a solid rule of thumb is to never buy any crypto at an ATH; it doesn't usually work out).Comment -
Good post, smart stuff. As a 3 year, dues paying veteran of the Bitcoin Unlimited movement (the guys who spun off BCH and were about to spin off B2X until the rug got pulled out from under us), I might be able to add a bit of detail to the picture.
Here's what's happening: about 3 days ago, bitcoin core and its outdated supporters stepped in to prevent the creation of a new BU inspired coin, B2X, that would have doubled block size to 2mbs, thereby greatly decreasing wait times and fees. Understandably angry, the movement hit back by luring the mining consortiums -- most of which have been B2X friendly from the beginning -- over to BCH and away from BTC.
How? Good question. Well, right now, BCH blocks are being mined at a rate of about 7.5 per 10 minutes vs about 1 per 10 minutes for BTC. That means mining BCH is far more profitable for the miners because even though there's practically no fees for the miners to collect on BCH -- users can send BCH (practically) for free -- they still benefit from gaining the issuance of the new BCH created with each block (exactly the same way BTC functions, except 7.5 times faster). Since BCH is more profitable to mine, most miners have moved to BCH, leaving BTC with a barely functioning blockchain.
But that doesn't mean BCH will surpass BTC. In 8 days, BCH will enter another "difficulty adjustment period," where the mining rate is likely to slow, bringing it closer to BTC's mining rate. Also, BTC's not likely to take this attack lying down. There's multiple ways BTC can make mining more profitable and thereby win back some of the miners they've lost. I'm sure they're currently making plans to do just that.
So, who will win in the short run? Almost certainly BTC. Who will win in the long run? Well, some of us believe if BTC doesn't adopt some strategy to address the increasing scale of transactions (we've chosen larger blocks), then they might end as Yahoo to our Google, but who knows?Comment -
Gemini has postponed any Deposits or Withdrawals using Bitcoin.
Due to the fact the network is dramatically delayed/congested.
If you are stuck with Bitcoin... good luck.Comment -
There's groups of miners though that aren't interested in going back to BTC as long as BCH is making some sort of profit (albeit smaller than BTC) if their motives are ideological. Sure there will be some going back to BTC to "follow the money", but it's not going to immediately alleviate the extremely high number of transactions (that doesn't seem to be shrinking) that's choking the network.
Core needs to stop expecting everyone to be patient on Lightning and work on a solution (even if temporary) to immediately alleviate the congestion. The constant reiteration from people on Twitter saying Lightning is coming soon is starting to turn into the "2 Weeks" gag in the movie "The Money Pit".Last edited by mrpapageorgio; 11-12-17, 05:13 PM.Comment -
nobody really knows for sure, I can't help but have a big hearty LOL when people talk so confident about what all this crypto currency is going to do in the future, NOBODY knows, we could end up with tens of thousands of new millionaires or people that are completely buried in losses, NOBODY KNOWS for sureComment -
BCH has become the flavor of the week as a combination between people seeking an immediate alternative to the extremely high number of pending transactions congesting the Bitcoin network and, as MPS explained, a retaliation by those that supported the recently canceled fork.
In terms of sports betting, if you're using a book that only uses Bitcoin or only accepts Bitcoin in terms of cryptocurrency deposits, there's not much you can do right now in terms of speeding up the transactions (besides using an accelerator and hoping for the best). However, if your book takes alternate currencies (like Bookmaker and BetOnline for example), you can buy coins like ETH or LTC and deposit using those coins as there is no congestion issues like with Bitcoin now until something is addressed with the backlog in the Bitcoin network.Comment -
Total meltdown.
How are books going to pay players now??? They have to wait days for their money (BITCOIN)????
Go back to checks???
Surely they aren't going to pay $10.00+ out of their own pocket so you have your $ in a timely manner.
Someone was in bed with someone on this... miners... etc.
So the high point was around $7,600 or so???
And now we're nearing $5,600????
How much of this is the inflation because of the FORK??
How much of this is because of people BEING SCARED AND SELLING OFF?
2,000 is a big drop
And people can't even really get their money because it needs to be confirmed at least once. This is like a total setup.Comment -
I wouldn't be shocked if more books start looking towards upgrading their processors where multiple cryptocurrencies are accepted so not all eggs are in one basket (Bitcoin). Unfortunately, if your sports book is Bitcoin only you're going to have to wait it out (unless they offer alternate deposit/withdraw methods you may want to consider using in the mean time).
I think the price jump started out as people buying in anticipation of the fork then the price skyrocketed as Johnny Come Lately heard about how the Bitcoin has profited so much in the past year since it was getting a lot more media coverage when the price was hitting ATH.
Now I think the reverse is happening. Once the fork was called off, those in to get the free coins jumped ship on what they bought in anticipation of the fork. Now with the price starting to drop, Johnny Come Lately is panicking that they're not making that quick buck they were expecting to make and is rushing to sell which is accelerating the drop in price. This unprecedented congestion also is probably not helping people's confidence in Bitcoin which is likely going to hurt the price as people will eventually turn to stable alternates, especially those that need high liquidity (such as most people on this forum who need a quick and easy way to move funds between them and their book).Last edited by mrpapageorgio; 11-12-17, 06:20 PM.Comment -
Great post. Thanks.
Yes I know... I should of pulled out a long time ago. It's hard to calculate sports... life.... and then worry when you need to pull out of an investment. I didn't imagine this... the network delay also has to be scaring a few people??? Apparently 153,000+ unconfirmed transactions at the moment.
My emergency number to pull out was $5,500
I might have to change it to $5,000???
Just my luck to be stuck with coins at Fairlay.... I go on a hot streak.... and I have no way to convert to Cash.
This is crazy.Comment -
I should clarify when I say wait it out, I mean wait it out in terms of waiting for the transaction to go through if you have one in the pool waiting to get confirmed. By all means try to withdraw and use an accelerator if you're not interested in holding in a Bitcoin only book and want to liquidate.
Just checked, GDAX is allowing me to deposit BTC into their account so if you have an account there you can send BTC there.Last edited by mrpapageorgio; 11-12-17, 06:44 PM.Comment -
I'm very relieved right now to see that my transactions are going through. Seems that BTCLuke was spot on again.
I'm a gambler not a crypto expert. Thankful to have this forum as a resource. One thing is clear to me is that having a huge balance in one coin takes a lot of balls.... my balls shrunk pretty small last night.
I hope that sportsbooks have not suffered too greatly and are smart enough to diversify their wallets so that they can still pay customers.
Bitcoin is the best thing to happen to gambling since I've been involved in gambling. I hope it continues and this kind of thing doesn't scare people and book off of it.Comment -
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You can send it to GDAX (at one point today they weren't taking any deposits because of the backlog), but the question is when the transaction will be confirmed with the congestion. Normally Nitro includes a high enough fee that it's usually put in the front of the line, but I don't know if they've kept up with the increase in fees as the backlog increased.Comment -
So you're suggesting instead of the normal route of nitro to a wallet to bitpay I should just go nitro to gdax and sell to my bank account?
Id ideally rather send it to bitpay. On bitcoin fees site it shows the best fee to send is 950 s/byte lolComment -
simple question... how do I get my btc from coinbase to my gdax wallet? and will this affect my BCH (that I don't have access until jan 1) in any way?Comment
