Nash 2016 MLB Baseball

[dlunc3]

Tomorrow is the day to play the Rays. Play them now at -116 before it moves.

[Breadloser]

Rays would have been a good spot for Schwarber. He should never have started the season in Chicago.

[stevenash]

Tomorrow is the day to play the Rays. Play them now at -116 before it moves.

Thing is I don't trust Smyly

[Ra77er]

Not touching Tampa, last year I liked Erasimo starts and losing 3-2 with Archer all year...this year is fade city. 80-81 wins in that division is

[stevenash]

OK, packing it in.
See ya'll tomorrow.

Hit the early ply for 200
I'm conceding the Ray game.
Pirates are up 6-5

Overall
5-2
+ 692

Pirates pending

Peace

[jeffchitown]

Rays overrated team and orioles underrated. Twins underrated. I watched preseason a lot and end of last season. I knew that minn has good pitchers and decent batters. Orioles have great hitters and fixed their hits compared to strike outs over last year. Twins have decent bats. People probably looked at orioles loss to twins and said damn they suck but minn twins underrated. It is why i posted another guys thread that royals were a probable win but not a lock because twins are better than you think. I'm also learning brewers are either underrated or astros are overrated. I put $130 on astros tonight and penetrate me stupid this is going to hurt. I wish i stuck with my dog of the day orioles but this is the downfall of my gambling. I can predict really good games then bet big based on season projections of team vs a team with low season projections



Disclaimer

Ive been drinking

[tatddy]

Converse, big on taking road faves on run line for + return.
I don't like -1 or +1 lines, that's just me however.

Thanks. I never play -+1 or +1.5 lines either. Was just curious.

All the best this year.

[dlunc3]

Tomorrow is the day to play the Rays. Play them now at -116 before it moves.

Already up to -140

[stevenash]

Just logged on.
Yanks over was the afternoon play, did not post it, I took the dogs to the lake.
They are paying me off by sleeping like logs.
Two hours at Lake Mohegan with those hills will do it.

Let's see what we got at 4pm and beyond.

[BigDeem5]

BOL this year, Nash

[stevenash]

Sunday April 10 MLB

Red Sox at Blue Jays
Wright vs. Estrada

Wright and Estrada are pretty much the same pitchers.
Both are pretty much 4.00 ERA's, both are pretty much .500 record pitchers.
Wright also 1.5 more base runners a game, 1.15 WH/IP to 1.30 WH/IP
And that could be the difference, you can't extend the Blue Jay line up, there's way too many lethal bats there.

Line is -137 and the total is 9.5
The line should be between -135 and -140 and the total should be between 9 and 10.
(looks like the books nailed this one.

Pass, unless I can get something like +133 or better on Boston.
That's the magic number for me (bet 3 to win 4)

I'll get back to this one.

Pirates at Reds
Jeff Locke at Tim Melville

Bells and whistles are going off.
Alarms are sounding, flares are going off.

Tim Melville is what we call a replacement player.
He's been called up from AA to make a spot start for Anthony Desclafarni)
He's never pitched a AAA game in his life, until last season.
He's a career 7 year minor league scrub with a record of 31 and 54.
A minor league career WH/IP of 1.46 and a career ERA of 4.63

Are you kidding me?
Melville can't get bush league hitters out, what makes you think he can get a pro team, like the Pirates out?
He doesn't strike out many 7K per 9 IP is not good in the minors.
He walks way to many over 4 BB per 9 IP
And he's a home run waiting to happen 1:11 IP ratio (61 in 668 minor league innings pitched)

Jeff Locke is not a very good MLB starter.
Locke is a lefty who sports a 4.16 MLB ERA and a 1.38 big league WH/IP
Lifetime record of 26 and 30

Here's the thing, and it's a big thing, even though Locke is at best a pedestrian major league pitcher a best, he's a major league pitcher never the less where as Melville is proven career minor league hamburger. More like a cheese burger, extra prickles.

So what's stopping me from storming the betting window?
I'm line phucked and mind phucked.
I rarely say the line is making me nervous, I admit it, the line is scaring the shit out of me.

Locke is -120 at home, line should be -135 to about -145.
Bells and whistles are going off here.
I get the Pirates are on the road, still -120 here is whack.
Another thing, besides Votto, nobody on the Reds hits LHP well.
Bruce? He's .220 vs. LHP.
Maybe Billy Hamilton but he only has 4 HR's in about 257 at bats, but that isn't Hamilton's game though.

I am going to keep a serious eye on the line movement of this event.
Right now as of 8:45 am it's -120 total of 8.5
My God I want to unload on the Pirates but I'm line baffled.

Phillies ar Mets
Hellickson at Harvey

This game handicaps its self

Harvey is the superior starter.
Mets have the superior offense
Mets have the superior bull pen.

Mets are the superior team here.

Line is -260, if you bet any single game in April you need to turn in your gambling card.
Mets with Harvey at home wins 3 out of every 4 times.
If you bet -260 4 times at -260 if you won 3 times you collect 300 and if you lost one in four at -260, well duh, you have to fork over 260 leaving you with a 40 dollar profit.

No real ROI here.

The only way Mets lose this game is if their offense deserts Harvey the way they deserted Colon last night.
The 100 year old Colon pitched a mother freaking 6 inning gem last night and lost 1-0.

Do like the under here, it's nut cracking cold here on the Long Island Sound here in Ct. Citi is on the other side of the Sound and about 50 miles to the south, it has to be just as nut cracking cold at Citi.

Under 6.5 here might be the way to go.

These are the three 1 pm games.
OK, this is where I get off for 90 minutes or so.'

My Jack Russell Terriers are doing the I need to crap dance so I have to take my pair of Jacks to Lake Mohegan for exercise for an hour or two, I'll look at the 1:30 and 2:00 games when I get back.

[HilltopTony]

Hurdle will rest some guys today. Still doesn't explain the line, just FYI.

[stevenash]

Locke is on the road I knew that I mentioned he's at home but corrected

[SEAHAWKHARRY]

So will u post your plays you are going with soon?

[Breadloser]

Mets lineup has disappointment written all over it. At that price, I would fade.

[stevenash]

So will u post your plays you are going with soon?

Yeah, I'll have the later games up in a few

[jameski999]

See a lot of +135's out there on the Red Sox now. That going to be a 3*?

[stevenash]

Over 8.5 KC / Minnesota

Nolasco is going to get croaked by the KC's swing and rarely miss bats.
Volquez will not be a mystery to the Twins bats either, Dozier should wake up this afternoon.
Mauer is hitting like .300, rest of the bats have been taking a nap, Volquez is the type of pitcher that Twins should have no problem hit.

I have MLB ticket, I've seen all four Royals game, they just keep on raking, they hit back to back bombs last night that were crushed.
Man that team can hit !

Over 8.5 is the early game play for me.

[stevenash]

See a lot of +135's out there on the Red Sox now. That going to be a 3*?

Got the game on now, Wright is wild, that's always been hit problem, that knuckle ball is floating all over the place, but it's just the first inning.

[jameski999]

Got the game on now, Wright is wild, that's always been hit problem, that knuckle ball is floating all over the place, but it's just the first inning.

So was Red Sox a 3* play for you? The above post said you needed +133 and it was going to be a 3*.

[Ra77er]

Choo out a few weeks, get to see Nomar Mazara

[tennis005]

I decided to do Pitt and over 8.5 for a 2 team parlay... whats ur thoughts nash, I just noticed in 1st inning there has been like 5 walks between 2 pitchers, but no runs.. I just feel that if Melville is as bad as 1st Pitt will put at least 5 or more up and reds will get a few from locke.

[OckertCR]

Took over 9 in Reds Pit game.

Always nice to see both sides load the bases in the first and come up with a grand total of 0 runs

[stevenash]

So was Red Sox a 3* play for you? The above post said you needed +133 and it was going to be a 3*.

Was not, the last line I saw on my phone while I was walking the dogs, the only play of mine for the afternoon is over KC 8.5, I walked in about 12:50 and was scrambling to meet the 1 pm fantasy deadline.

I would have if I saw the +135, but my mind was focused on the deadline.
Plenty of winners I had I neglected to post I did not take credit for too.

My integrity has never ever been questioned in all the years I have been positing here.

For instance I did not post this, so I won't take credit for it, but I'll take the cash.
I LOVED Oakland last night but never posted it.

Ticket #: 3149523 Apr 09 07:10 PM Apr 09 07:15 PM Apr 09 09:10 PM Apr 09 07:10 PM

MLB MLB MLB MLB

PARLAY (4 TEAMS) (FP) [907] STL -1½+120 ( C MARTINEZ -R / J TEHERAN -R ) [924] KC -124 ( ACTION ) [927] OAK +114 ( ACTION ) [929] HOU -1½+105 ( D FISTER -R / W PERALTA -R )

25.00 / 410.87

410.87

WIN WIN WIN WIN WIN

04/09/2016 07:05 PM

[Louisvillekid1]

So was Red Sox a 3* play for you? The above post said you needed +133 and it was going to be a 3*.

Nash gl

[stevenash]

I decided to do Pitt and over 8.5 for a 2 team parlay... whats ur thoughts nash, I just noticed in 1st inning there has been like 5 walks between 2 pitchers, but no runs.. I just feel that if Melville is as bad as 1st Pitt will put at least 5 or more up and reds will get a few from locke.

I liked both Pitt and the over, did not play either because like I mentioned before because the line spooked me.
I admit that game played with my mind so much I passed, and 98 percent of the time I don't let a line mind *uck me, that one did.

[stevenash]

Nash gl

Thanks LK1

[tennis005]

ok..

[stevenash]

I'm in a mini slide currently at 5 and 4 showing a modest profit courtesy of the Rays +130 hit for 3* last week proving as long as you hover around .500 and mainly bet dogs and pick 'em games and don't lay heavy wood.

I'm big on Cashner this afternoon at +113
SD goes for 3*
Best of luck today.

[tennis005]

I have cashner in fantasy so I hope so ...lol

Is nola gonna deal today? Would it be better to assume that Padres over 3.5 team runs can be a solid bet, just hesistant from bad spring and bad first outing. Phils team can hit and showed against Mets.

[tennis005]

I think everytime there is a line of -230 or higher especially over -250 there should be Underdog alert lol Just seems when I see those lines, for example phils against harvey, other team wins or +1.5 hits

[BayArea888]

I think everytime there is a line of -230 or higher especially over -250 there should be Underdog alert lol Just seems when I see those lines, for example phils against harvey, other team wins or +1.5 hits

So...you taking Braves?

[Notorious_Donk]

I'm in a mini slide currently at 5 and 4 showing a modest profit courtesy of the Rays +130 hit for 3* last week proving as long as you hover around .500 and mainly bet dogs and pick 'em games and don't lay heavy wood.

I'm big on Cashner this afternoon at +113
SD goes for 3*
Best of luck today.

Amen brotha

[tennis005]

Ive hit some good plays last yr with sky rocket lines. I would feel it out this year but max faced the braves in first start and won 4-3 so +1.5 at -110 sounds pretty good.

[Capybara]

What makes you like Cashner today, Nash? I was thinking Nola and Phils. He's been much sharper lately.