Nash 2016 MLB Baseball

[stevenash]

Sunday April 3

3 games (1 exhibition)

1 pm
St. Louis vs. Pittsburgh
Pirates -121
Total 6 over -115
Liriano v. Wainwright

Once upon a time both pitchers were elite.
Now, both pitchers are still very dependable, but past prime.

Still Liriano can frustrate even the best hitters, and Wainwright still has nasty stuff when on.
Cards really don't punish good LHP, Pirates have the bats to do some harm against Wain-o.

I'll lay -121 on the lefty and Pirates.
2*
Lean towards the under 6, but no play

4pm
Toronto v. Tampa Bay
Tampa -115
Total 7 over -115
Stroman vs. Archer

Archer is the superior starter here, I like Stroman, has good stuff, under the radar good pitcher, but he's not Archer.
Blue Jays just don't have the better offense, they have the superior offense, if Archer has his 'A' game, he could shut down that line up, can't fade the Blue Jays offense here, and can't fade Archer.
Pass on the game, but wagering 2* that game total goes over 7.

Over 7* here, 2*

KC/Mets no opinion as of yet, leaning a little towards KC as home dog, remembers what Harvey did in WS game last October, still fresh in my mind, right now no play total or side there.

[Ratpack]

Gl nasher hopefully uconn pulls away tonight gl in the season

[stevenash]

^
Thanks Rat

[KRIT]

BOL

[t-wizzle]

Good luck this year.

[Joe Sharp]

Here's to another profitable season.
Good luck Nash.

Cheers

[Capybara]

Good luck this season, Nasher!

[jjgold]

Nasci not you again

[stevenash]

Nasci not you again

I'm like shit, I'm all over the place.

[OckertCR]

Nash I can't for the life of me remember what Harvey did last October

[Ra77er]

Bookmark gl this year Steve

[Duckshit]

Thanks Steve.....I'll be following, good luck!

[BIGDAY]

[stevenash]

Nash I can't for the life of me remember what Harvey did last October

Shutdown the Royals until he cried like the nanci-boi that he is to Collins to let him pitch the ninth where he shit the bed like the nanci-boi that he is.

[Booya711]

GL on the season Nasher!

[19th Hole]

As always...Thanks for the time and knowledge.
BOL on your 2016 season.

[stevenash]

^
Thanks, I see no edge in tonight's KC/MYM game.

Recap, hit with the Pirates, caught a break and won the over Toronto wager with a Dickerson bomb (my sleeper pick in the NFBC)

2-0 YTD +$400

Have a profitable rest of your Sunday.

[stevenash]

MLB Baseball - Monday April 4

Pretty much a full slate today.
Breaking down the day and late afternoon games first

Houston Astros at New York Yankees
Rained out.

SF Giants at Milwaukee Brewers
Bumgarner vs. Peralta

Giants -171
Total 7.5

Bummy is an elite - Peralta has no business being labeled an 'ace'
Bummy is by far the superior starter.
Giants sticks are superior than Berwers lineup.

Three ways to wager this.
I will not lay -171, unless you use it in a 2 team parlay.
Not fond of parlay bets because of the fact you need multiple teams to win to collect one wager.
I might do it with SF in this spot, we'll see.

You could use Bummy on run line at +100 (even up)
I strongly advise to bet run lines only if you like the road favorite, reason being the visiting team gets a ninth inning at bat, guaranteed, where as the home team doesn't get that ninth inning at bat only if they are losing, and if you are tied up in the ninth using a home team in a run line and you need to win by 2, you are also pretty much screwed, unless there is a walk off multiple bomb.

Another angle in this game is to bet SF to score 4 or more, since SF gets a ninth inning at bat, Peralta being a hamburger, and SF has plenty of offense with Belt, Pence, Posey and the rest.

I'll get back to this game later.

Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore - 126
Total 9 runs
Santana vs. Tillman

Holy Mother of God, the poor rawhide.
Balls should be flying out of Camden.
Both pitchers are good for about 24 home runs given up this season.
Both sides are loaded with HR potential.
You have Sano and Park and Plouffe, even Brian Dozier at the top of the order hits 20 homers.
Baltimore has name brand power, like Chris Davis and Adam Jones, and the catcher is back Matt Weiters and Machado.

Both starters will be five and fly, maybe six innings each, maximum.

I wouldn't touch each starters with a 10 foot pole.
If you have to bet a side, take Twins at + money.
If you wager the total, I'd bet the over 9, I don't like pushes, so you need 10 runs to collect here.
Over should cash, leaning over here, but I have not put in any tickets yet.
I'll get back to this game.

Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers
Texas -125
Total 7.5 runs
Felix Hernandez vs. Cole Hamels

Interesting match up
4 years ago these two were as good as it gets elite.
OK I may be overrating Hamels, let's not say elite, but solid.
Both are regressing.

Hamels throws left.
Cruz and Seager right there in the middle of the order crushes LHP
Throw in Cano hitting third, the 3-4-5 hitters can inflict major damage on Cole Hamels.
Don't sleep on Franklin Guiterrez either, and Ketel Marte is an up and comer at SS in the two hole with very good foot speed.

King Hernandez is in good health
I really don't see anybody in the Texas line up hurting Felix, maybe Choo, that's about it.
Prince Fielder is 2 for 25 lifetime vs. Felix

I'm going to play King and his Court the Seatlle Mariners.

Philadelphia Phillies at Reds
I don't want any part of this shit festival.

Phils + money or don't bet it.
I choose not to bet it.

Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves
This is an easy one to break down.
Nationals own every aspect of this game.
Max should not lose to Teheran
Nationals should severely out hit the Braves
Either wager Max on run line since they are on the road at -105, or leave the game alone.


I'm betting the Indians over the Red Sox, I'll break that down when I get back, right now I have to be somewhere.

Indians and Mariners are the afternoon plays

[tennis005]

Great writeups. I like Balt and Trumbo as well for another Big Bat.

I just have a gut feeling Nats are going to put a beating on atlanta with zimmerman super hot in spring, he will start year healthy and also rendon.

What about Windians and left handed pitching, I know they struggled in past. I love King felix as well.

[Suggartown]

Love all the breakdowns. Glad to read all your posts. Thank you

[stevenash]

Great writeups. I like Balt and Trumbo as well for another Big Bat.

I just have a gut feeling Nats are going to put a beating on atlanta with zimmerman super hot in spring, he will start year healthy and also rendon.

What about Windians and left handed pitching, I know they struggled in past. I love King felix as well.

Raj Davis hit .298 vs. LHP and has hit Price well in the past.'
Kipnis owns Price and hits LHP fine.
Napoli hit .278 vs. LHP
They're fine.

Mad-Bum has walked 3 batters in the first inning, so glad I left him alone.
He has a touch of the flu I am told.

I bought MLB extra innings for the season.
Every game, every team, 165 dollars for the season.

[mikmik]

Why doesn't dimes gave Indians line?

[dwatersalec]

Why doesn't dimes gave Indians line?

PPD

[mikmik]

Oh OK thanks

[badgerguy]

Good luck this season Stevenash!

[tatddy]

Bum and Posey both battling the flu. Regardless of that Bum was struggling to get on top of his delivery all spring. I'd avoid or fade him for a few starts until you see him right the ship.

All the best of luck this year, Nash.

[crazykind]

Hey man, LOVE the writeups! Hope you have a great season...

[iloseagain]

Bum and Posey both battling the flu. Regardless of that Bum was struggling to get on top of his delivery all spring. I'd avoid or fade him for a few starts until you see him right the ship.

All the best of luck this year, Nash.

Yea he did not have a good spring

[RollinDo]

Going to tread lightly from the start, though I want to bet 8 games today.

Only play I locked in was Cubs-Angels (U 4 - 1st 5) -135
May play Oakland +1 too at close to -115.

I think these 2 starters will start off strong and Angels hitters have not seen Arrieta much.
Nice little pitcher's duel.

Other leans are:
ChiSox - A's (U 7)
Oakland +1
Nats -1
Sea - Tex (U 8)

[RollinDo]

Nasher - you know what's up with the high total of 8 for the Sea-Texas game?
Is this a trap?
Looks like a 4-3 or 4-2 kinda game to me.

[iloseagain]

Nasher - you know what's up with the high total of 8 for the Sea-Texas game?
Is this a trap?
Looks like a 4-3 or 4-2 kinda game to me.

Sea gona tattoo hamels.. Nah idk but youre right.. Seems a bit high.. Texas stadium is a high scoring ballpark, so thats probably why. 8 is actually probably a pretty low total for that ballpark

[RollinDo]

Sea gona tattoo hamels.. Nah idk but youre right.. Seems a bit high.. Texas stadium is a high scoring ballpark, so thats probably why. 8 is actually probably a pretty low total for that ballpark

Guess so...but whenever Darvish pitches it's too many runs...and here we have 2 pretty solid starters...just expected a total of 7 was about right.

[iloseagain]

Guess so...but whenever Darvish pitches it's too many runs...and here we have 2 pretty solid starters...just expected a total of 7 was about right.

Hmm.. How are these teams bullpens? Dont know much about either

[Ra77er]

Rangers by 7 today

No kings court in Arlington

[opie1988]

Always enjoy your stuff, Nash.

This being said.....you're WAYYYY off on the Seattle play.

Texas rolls here. Play the run line and thank me at the pay window.