Numbers for Week 11:
Montreal -15.9 42.9
Saskatchewan -7.3 53.7
Hamilton -28.4 66.9
Calgary -2.7 41.7
Montreal -15.9 42.9
Saskatchewan -7.3 53.7
Hamilton -28.4 66.9
Calgary -2.7 41.7
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i think that saskatchewan will be in good shape this week after firing hc chamblin who had an me against the world mentality. this riders team is not ad bad as 0-9, but they don't have a lot of canadian talent either. this week is truly the match up of the worst against the worse.
hamilton is also hit by a long injury list, and toronto outgained them in the 1st match up by over 140 total yards in a 16 pt loss.
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A quick note on a play I just picked up. I’ll write more later but my while my prediction varies a bit from many and we have a ton of information to take in between now and Monday, I have picked up Edmonton Eskimos +5 (-106) over Calgary Stampeders. I have also picked up Edmonton Eskimos +180 over Calgary Stampeders.
I believe this line, which opened at 6 very early and opened in most places at 5.5 will continue to press downward. I want to get this line of 5 before more information comes in to make a more aggressive decision, if any. Because this is the swing game on Monday this is a situation where I may find myself selling back, or buying Calgary, if conditions warrant the play. For now I’ll take these numbers and see how the weekend plays out.
Good Luck
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In reviewing my plays for the first half of the season it is clear that British Colombia has done some damage. Tonight they play Montreal in a rematch of two weeks ago and this time I have predicted Montreal to score 20 points to British Colombia’s 10 points. This line had a very early opening of Montreal -3.5 with a Total of 45.5 but opened around the world Montreal -5 with a total of 47.5.
I can see some support for the Over but almost all models have a lower scoring game. This line has ticked down to 47 in most places and, despite some over support, could drop a little lower.
The point spread has basically opened to the world at 5 and ticked up to 5.5, consistent with most models, but fell back to 5 in most places. I would expect a little bit of late BC pressure here. Some groups will be looking for BC in this game.
I know this is the second half of the season now and have posted that this half will be a bit opposite of the first half. This can count for many metrics. For tonight’s game I anticipate some revenge for British Colombia and see Montreal faltering after a big win. The line may be crucial here as we may see it drop to 4.5 so before it does I have picked up British Colombia Lions +5 (-107) over Montreal Alouettes.
Once again we are dealing with the first game of the week, and even the first game of the half of the season. This game tells us quite a bit about moneyflow and this 5 point line is popping up in many markets this week. I’ve already picked a 5 point underdog and upset this week with Edmonton. I am steering clear of the moneyline tonight as well as the Total, although it seems the Over may be the play. I feel we can get more valuable information by watching these results as opposed to betting the games.
Good Luck
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Again, I'm still moving and haven't been able, time wise, to focus as much so my write-up is a bit lacking. With NCAAF starting I am a bit behind this week, but I'll catch up.
Bottom line, if tonight's play loses, like I've said before, I am confident I'll get it back in the near future. There are many paths of money to steer, and it all starts tonight, leading into next Monday.
I saw that thread about NCAAF, I will chime in for sure, but I need to get my bearings in regards to the marketplace. It seems some of you have a bit to offer from ground level, it will be interesting to lay some market analysis on top. It can be tough though, there are a lot of games.
Good luck tonight on whatever you're on, in whatever sport.
I'll try to check in at halftime.
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Well KVB, hopefully the Labor Day weekend and CFL scheduling, gave you a little more time to get your move/business handled. Looks like we have a Winni/Saskatch game today and 2 more tomorrow.
Any others have opinions on these games? ThxComment -
noddse,
Looks like Hamilton closed as about a 3.5 point favorite at home last time, on Mon, Aug 3rd and the finals score was Toronto 18 and Hamilton 34... According to your above stats, Toronto outgained them significantly, yet with all these injuries, they are now an 8.5 point favorite? I don't know my CFL, but I see where they play back to back games at Hamilton and then rematch a third time next Friday in Toronto. Note: game went under 53
It does appear obvious that Toronto is the right side but I've rarely found obvious and easy (or right) to be the same. Is this not too obvious? I've generally found value backing teams with injuries. Unfortunately, I do not have any point of reference with this league.
As far as Saskatch is concerned, this looks like a really good spot to me, but there again, I don't have experience with this league. Comments and thoughts welcome...Last edited by BamaCBass; 09-06-15, 12:47 PM.Comment -
Well it’s hard to see Saskatchewan getting any lower than the end of the first half of the season. The behavior on the field, particularly at the end of the game pretty much says it all. It was our Over, lost in a bad beat. If you weren’t afraid of Saskatchewan before, many are now…and now you have to lay to get a win from them today.
Saskatchewan probably gets the win today, but they may not. I have a prediction of Saskatchewan winning with 24 or 25 points to Winnipeg’s 20 points. This line was a pick very early at one spot but opened almost everywhere at Saskatchewan -3.5 or 4. We have seen it tick up to -4.5 in many spots. This line is dead on with my prediction.
I’ve decided that I don’t have to be there when Saskatchewan gets that first win, which could come today. The moneyline is hardly worth the price and the pointspread is dead on in my opinion. I will pass here.
But that Total belongs to us. There was an early report of 47.5 but the line opened almost everywhere at 52 or 51.5. One house reports an opening of 54 but quickly adjusted. This line has moved toward my prediction of 44 or 45 points and has settled at 50.5. I have seen enough with that last game in Ottawa and remember this half of the season will be opposite. I have pulled the trigger with OVER 50.5 (-102) for Saskatchewan Roughriders versus Winnipeg Blue Bombers.
Good Luck
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Interesting take KVB. Got my over play in, thanks.
Doesn't it seem that being favored is enough of a tip for Saskatch? Have they been favorites all year? I'm guessing no.
If you took a poll of CFL fans, who do you think the general consensus would be in favor of today?
Edit: LOL, I was playing around and noticed where my book would not allow me to buy this game down to 3.Last edited by BamaCBass; 09-06-15, 01:38 PM.Comment -
Saskatchewan was favored in weeks 1, 2, 4, and 5. Then they became big underdogs.
It's a round robin sort of league. When these two met in week 1 Saskatchewan was favored by 7 and Winnipeg upset them. The first game went Over the 50 point line.
There seems to be a lot of pressure from a lot of streak breaking bettors to get Saskatchewan. Some of the same type of pressure on that Over also. The question...will the market pay both?
This is the type of weekend where it just might.Comment -
Interestingly, this is the first rematch where the home and road didn't alternate. Both games in Saskatchewan.Comment -
I'm not sure what the norm is, but I noticed where Hamilton plays at home again against Toronto also.
Guess the books could catch those streak breakers in a jam with a 1-4 (key numberes 1,3, & 4) pt Saskatch win... But then again, lots of action may consistently come in against the Riders too since their skid.Comment -
One more thing. Further evidence of a Saskatchewan win could be built into my prediction itself, and not just because it predicts a Saskatchewan winner. I have them winning by 4 or 5 points, the same as the spread. Disciplined bettors, following such a model or similar predictions will likely do what a I have done and pass on the side. Now they have a slightly inflated moneyline to deal with.
The books seem to be in a good position, taking out some sharper side bettors and only risking that moneyline bet. Of course, there are always parlays and derivatives to kill, so it could be interesting.Comment -
Good point, so we have two games this week with that type of rematch. This first game could be steering some money. Let's see if Saskatchewan can get revenge. It's difficult to get the flow, this game today is sort of a hiccup.
The two games tomorrow will likely steer money. I would look for the first game tomorrow to be close to the spread at the end, possibly even OT with an 8 point winner in Hamilton...leading to Edmonton.
These are just some thoughts on deception and moneyflow. This week could get tricky and, if it drops further, I may buy Calgary, selling back the Edmonton I already own. My hope is to continue to find reasons to buy Calgary, if they really add up, then I may be right on the swing game. Already getting a 5 point upset this week makes me want to jump to the favorite. We simply need, and let's see if we get, more information.
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Sounds like a plan. Based on the little info I have, I'd guess Riders win by 1-3 or simply in a blowout.Comment -
Actually, it really isn't inflated yet, but I don't think it should be this high until closer to game time. I noticed that some houses have already been sitting near or over -200 even when the line is at 4 or 4.5. These moneylines seem more typical of a 5 point game. I do think the moneyline was kept a little higher for protection and expect it to go even higher. This line may stay at -4.5, but anyone with a -180 or so moneyline will likely approach 200.
I figured some inflation as those 200 moneylines may see a similar rise, but maybe they'll hold. It could be that the books just positioned a little early. Let's see in the next hour what happens.Comment -
Tough call, but Saskatchewan looked so bad last Sunday. It was almost too much. Those multiple first and goals at the end, then the 15 yard sack was just rubbing it in...lol.
Ridiculous. I don't see how anyone would pick Saskatchewan, but when people see they are favored, opinions seem to change. People tend to root for the underdog, but bet with the favorite.
Like noddse said, worst of the worst.Comment -
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I agree with KVB here, if I get what he's saying the books are sick ov over bettors laughing their way to the bank & they may be panicked?
I'm on the over because I don't think there is a proper adjustment to be made to the total.Comment -
I think I just missed getting Over 50 -105 by mere seconds.
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Right on 3 at the half, eh? LOL. And the halftime line of -2 brings it right in line with the closer of 5... HmmmComment -
Between the holiday, CFB, and life generally I totally missed this game. I hope the over comes through for everyone.Comment -
Was just going to post the same thing about that 2 point half time line. Basically the same bet as when the game started. But the total gives us a better deal. I picked up Over 24.5 2nd half for Saskatchewan versus Winnipeg.
Good Luck.
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The price here for the over 24.5 2nd half was (-106).
May not matter, these teams are horrible...lol.Comment -
YupComment -
Notice as this game unfolds as the Under, the last game tomorrow edges upward from 49.5 to 50. Money would appear to be split on this line. This was a bit predictable, though not posted this week. Let's see if we can profit from this line shift or knowledge.Comment -
Efff yeah! Congrats, KVB & Co.!
Looks like we were both right... Now I need to learn the rules and something about the CFL
Last edited by BamaCBass; 09-06-15, 06:10 PM.Comment
