14 plays with the 1 added included incase anyone was wondering
Dollars2Donuts Daily NBA, NHL and NFL wagers
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smarotta09SBR Wise Guy
- 01-18-12
- 834
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la caraSBR Sharp
- 04-24-13
- 337
#212Hey DD... How do you stay profitable betting 24 units in one night?.. I mean by all means you are free to do whatever you like but as a gamblers perspective.... It can't be too smart in the bankroll department.... Right...??? Please elaborateComment -
chris86SBR Rookie
- 11-09-13
- 26
#213Hey D2D. I'm new here but started tailing you a few days ago. I'm curious why you passed on San Jose in regulation tonight. Leafs have been extremely underwhelming in the last month or so.Comment -
matthew919SBR Sharp
- 11-21-12
- 421
#214If all the plays are +EV, the more the better. Getting your entire bankroll in play every day is a goal I would love to achieve. What surprises me is that he's still betting $50 and $100 plays. If the record from the last thread was accurate, correct bet sizing could have probably made D2D a millionaire over that run.Comment -
Dollars2DonutsSBR Hall of Famer
- 02-07-13
- 8803
#215
1) I bet games where I see an edge. If I see an edge and leave that game sitting on the sidelines, am I not in essence, throwing that money away? People ask all the time 'why this game' and 'why that game'....it is never that easy. I am NEVER saying 'Team A will win tonight'....what I am saying is that 'I believe that Team A will win enough times, if this game is played 100 times, to give this bet value'.
A common misconception among us is that ANYONE can see into the future. We cannot....that I can assure you.
2) The higher volume you bet, the smaller the variance. If a bettor bets one game per day and has a stretch where he goes 1-12 (and yes, that has happened to me on a single night before....ugly), it may drive him entirely mad. I bet a LOAD of games, in fact last year I had over 40 wagers out in one day. If you understand statisctics you will understand that volume (the more you do anything) smooths out the ups and down....but of course this only makes sense if you are betting with an edge that is more than perceived, it needs to be real.
Now, to bankroll management. I have no issue putting out a third (33%) of my online Bank into play in one day. You need to realize that this is NO DIFFERENT than if I put 2% of my roll into one game per day for 16 days....right? Volume doesn't mean lack of control. I can assure you that I excercise proper BR Management on a daily basis, and that each and every day I go into that day with a plan.
If all the plays are +EV, the more the better. Getting your entire bankroll in play every day is a goal I would love to achieve. What surprises me is that he's still betting $50 and $100 plays. If the record from the last thread was accurate, correct bet sizing could have probably made D2D a millionaire over that run.
Last year had two segments for me....
1) Betting at Bodog. I went from $250 to somewhere in the neighbourhood of $8k. I started betting $15-30 per game and quickly increased as my bank zoomed upwards. Right around the end of this time period I found SBR and started posting. As soon as I started posting guys kept telling me that I should get off of Bodog and they recommended 5dimes (a great book).
When I left Bodog I cashed out the full amount and used $6000 to put down on a new car.
2) I bought in at 5dimes for $500 I believe....it could have been $600 or something as well....cannot really remember off hand.
At the end of last season (the culmination of NBA and NHL) I cashed $10k out of 5dimes, leaving $1800 in the account. I had just broken up with my long term girlfriend and was looking at properties. I ended up buying a beautiful condo and that $10k was very much needed.
Now, the $1800 sat in that account for the last 6 months until I started back 6 days ago (actually I bet two days before I started posting again....a time in which I had to decide whether I wanted to commit to posting again....it was not an easy decision).
Of course, betting with $1800 in an account is a lot tougher than going with $12-$14k, and of course because I do manage my bank, I had to drop down to $50 units. If you look back into my thread from last year you will see that I never bet under $100 on anything, and many nights had 2 or more bets out of $400 plus. My ego is not too big to know that I need to start smaller again....and hopefully next year I won't have to use the $$$ for anything and can continue to increase my bet sizing for years to come.
If you have any questions about my record keeping from last year, know this.....many people continually questioned it (they usually do on a winning thread) and nobody at any time came up with anything more than a small clerical error here and there....and if fact a couple of times I corrected errors whch actually hurt me. This year HE is tracking me completely independantly, and that works for me too! Way less work!
Frankly, this website keeps me being honest with myself. If I didn't have this site, my bet sizing might get out of control, and chances are I would chase here and there....being accountable and professional has helped me so much.....and that is one of the biggest reasons that I am back posting on SBR again this year....(of course the people are mostly good shits too).
I hope I have answered your questions clearly and directly.
D2DComment -
matthew919SBR Sharp
- 11-21-12
- 421
#216My advice would be to not tap your BR unless your life depends on it. With your edge, every dime you can spare should be going into your bankroll, even if it means living on the cheap for a year or two. Think of it this way- if you had rented a cheap place and had that 10k working for you, you'd have doubled it over just this last couple days' run. Instead of being up 2K or whatever you'd be up like 15 grand already. By the end of the season who knows, you might have been able to buy that condo with a suitcase full of cash. No interest whatsoever.
Starting with 1K and doubling up 5 times = 32K. Starting with 10K and doubling up 5 times = 320K.
The idea is exponential growth-and if you tap your bankroll when it's small- even for what seems like a small amount- you'll end up setting yourself back years.
I envy your betting options. Since you're on the right side of the border, you'll have access to Pinny's high limits down the road. Stay disciplined and bet half or quarter kelly until you're up against limit ceilings. But it would really benefit you to be adjusting your bet sizes more or less daily based on your current br and estimated edge. The SBR kelly calculator is your friend.Comment -
la caraSBR Sharp
- 04-24-13
- 337
#217Thanks for clearing that up D2D and now that I read that it makes perfect sense... Sorry to make you keep explaining the same thing but honestly it probably won't be the last time you have to explain that :-)
Bol tonight budComment -
RavensFan2k3SBR Posting Legend
- 08-18-12
- 17378
#218Interesting call on Toronto Raptors...I just cant see them coveringComment -
Dollars2DonutsSBR Hall of Famer
- 02-07-13
- 8803
#219My advice would be to not tap your BR unless your life depends on it. With your edge, every dime you can spare should be going into your bankroll, even if it means living on the cheap for a year or two. Think of it this way- if you had rented a cheap place and had that 10k working for you, you'd have doubled it over just this last couple days' run. Instead of being up 2K or whatever you'd be up like 15 grand already. By the end of the season who knows, you might have been able to buy that condo with a suitcase full of cash. No interest whatsoever.
Starting with 1K and doubling up 5 times = 32K. Starting with 10K and doubling up 5 times = 320K.
The idea is exponential growth-and if you tap your bankroll when it's small- even for what seems like a small amount- you'll end up setting yourself back years.
I envy your betting options. Since you're on the right side of the border, you'll have access to Pinny's high limits down the road. Stay disciplined and bet half or quarter kelly until you're up against limit ceilings. But it would really benefit you to be adjusting your bet sizes more or less daily based on your current br and estimated edge. The SBR kelly calculator is your friend.Comment -
bald_guySBR Wise Guy
- 11-02-12
- 990
#220My advice would be to not tap your BR unless your life depends on it. With your edge, every dime you can spare should be going into your bankroll, even if it means living on the cheap for a year or two. Think of it this way- if you had rented a cheap place and had that 10k working for you, you'd have doubled it over just this last couple days' run. Instead of being up 2K or whatever you'd be up like 15 grand already. By the end of the season who knows, you might have been able to buy that condo with a suitcase full of cash. No interest whatsoever.
Starting with 1K and doubling up 5 times = 32K. Starting with 10K and doubling up 5 times = 320K.
The idea is exponential growth-and if you tap your bankroll when it's small- even for what seems like a small amount- you'll end up setting yourself back years.
I envy your betting options. Since you're on the right side of the border, you'll have access to Pinny's high limits down the road. Stay disciplined and bet half or quarter kelly until you're up against limit ceilings. But it would really benefit you to be adjusting your bet sizes more or less daily based on your current br and estimated edge. The SBR kelly calculator is your friend.Comment -
matthew919SBR Sharp
- 11-21-12
- 421
#221If he lived in Vegas I might agree with you more, but keeping tons of money in a foreign account can go very bad. I think its good to take your profits after so much. The only way I can see him doing volume bets with really huge amounts (over time) is keeping way more then I would feel comfortable with in any book. Think Bet Island.
GL this year D2D.Comment -
rainman416SBR MVP
- 09-20-12
- 1248
#222Love you're Thread D2D. I have a ton to learn about BR Management and "Staying away from Sports I don't know".. Reading your posts is enlightening.. You're def on the ball and your mathematical input really helps me out, as that is where I usually get lost in my own thread..
You present as a stand up guy.
SBR needs more "Good People" .. Win/Loss is second to character imo. Seems you've got both covered
GL this seasonComment -
CoreosSBR Sharp
- 01-18-13
- 464
#223Yea, I'm wondering about this play as well. GS is on the rebound, finally winning one after losing 3 straight - we know they love to put up huge points at home. And Toronto, well, is Toronto. I don't think they even break 100 pts 50% of their games? Might pick them for a half depending on how the game flow is.Comment -
Dollars2DonutsSBR Hall of Famer
- 02-07-13
- 8803
#224Yea, I'm wondering about this play as well. GS is on the rebound, finally winning one after losing 3 straight - we know they love to put up huge points at home. And Toronto, well, is Toronto. I don't think they even break 100 pts 50% of their games? Might pick them for a half depending on how the game flow is.Comment -
Flatbed24Restricted User
- 10-15-13
- 5
#225What a great thread.
Thanks to D2D for the picks and to the rest for the discussion.Comment -
High3rEl3m3ntSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-28-10
- 8022
#226GL everyone!!Comment -
15cnbrk12345SBR Rookie
- 11-17-13
- 16
#227Greetings from Turkeyit is one of the best threads i ve ever seen good job bro... please keep it up with
Comment -
BigDofBASBR Posting Legend
- 09-30-09
- 19313
#228
If you have an edge, it would be smarter to play more games would it not?
It seems like I win more when I have my bankroll spread out over a high volume of plays rather than going large on a few games.Comment -
CoreosSBR Sharp
- 01-18-13
- 464
#229Just watch. Raps youth will want to keep up with GS youth, Lowery will compete above his head, Derozan will go off for a bunch of points too. The Raps are a better team than they are getting credit for and they are working their tails off this year. I say GS wins here 75% of the time.....but Raps cover well over 50%. NOTE: This game will see a load of the public on GSComment -
High3rEl3m3ntSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-28-10
- 8022
#232Yes, sir. I just updated a few selections that ended after I went to bed. I try to catch everything the night of, or the following night.Comment -
High3rEl3m3ntSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-28-10
- 8022
#233The two saints selections are up there...I had them on my running list of plays for everyone.Comment -
CoreosSBR Sharp
- 01-18-13
- 464
#235speaking of that rarest of sbr-commodities, civilized threads, and who should show up but the CEO of the smoothest-flowing (and money-making) threads...up 50 units in MLB this past year (the old fashioned hard way...one unit at time)
Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.
currently
NFL http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-bettin...3-14-a-p3.html
NBA http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basket...3-14-a-p6.html
that "culture" which intuitively protects itself from external threats is alive and well in all of Paco's threads...all centred around the OP and a good gang of regulars...same thing i posted about above, and the raw materials are all in place here as well
good threads at SBR are like good friends in real life...hard to find, but definitely worth the effort to maintain...and always room for one moreComment -
Dollars2DonutsSBR Hall of Famer
- 02-07-13
- 8803
#236Well, our two regulation plays in the NHL are going down in flames. Carolina has been playing some good hockey....surprised this one is going that badly though. Also, Pittsburgh has been catching their stride and the Isles have been rough....looks like the rest of the night we will be playing catch-up....hope we can get back to a break even night!Comment -
High3rEl3m3ntSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-28-10
- 8022
#238I remember pacon doing the sporttrends thread...whatever happened to that site?
What a great night of hockey from just a viewing standpoint...I am watching four games right now!Comment -
Dollars2DonutsSBR Hall of Famer
- 02-07-13
- 8803
#23913 points in the last 58 seconds of the Miami Heat game.....to lose by 3. That one hurt pretty badly, as the entire game is looked like a solid pick. Very rough start to the nightComment -
BIGDAYSBR Aristocracy
- 02-17-10
- 48245
#240This thread needs a
Keep er up pal!Comment -
la caraSBR Sharp
- 04-24-13
- 337
#241the rationale behind betting small on 1 or 2 games is that if you do happen to have one of those nights where you go 1-12 on one night.. your bankroll would take a big hit making it harder to get back on your feet. if you do go 1-12 over a 2 week span... maybe somewhere along the lines you can take a break and focus....just a thought
but on the flip side i see the point of volume betting to minimize the variance...i just think i dont have the enough Valium to risk that muchLast edited by la cara; 12-03-13, 10:41 PM.Comment -
Dollars2DonutsSBR Hall of Famer
- 02-07-13
- 8803
#242the rationale behind betting small on 1 or 2 games is that if you do happen to have one of those nights where you go 1-12 on one night.. your bankroll would take a big hit making it harder to get back on your feet. if you do go 1-12 over a 2 week span... maybe somewhere along the lines you can take a break and focus....just a thoughtComment -
iWinSBR High Roller
- 01-16-12
- 244
#243D2D, Do you think the Thunder can win this game outright? Planning to play big on the live moneyline.Comment -
Dollars2DonutsSBR Hall of Famer
- 02-07-13
- 8803
#245I am really considering the middle in the GS/TO game here. GS -9.5 second half is basically GS +7.5 and I have an automatic 15 point middle opp. Tough to lay off....thoughts?Comment
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