Dollars2Donuts Daily NBA, NHL and NFL wagers

[alamo]

Blazers open up first 14 min 8/9 from 3pt. Contrast those figs with above game

[Enjoi]

Blazers are way better than the Warriors this year. Warriors got real lucky with their comeback against the Raptors who are known to blow leads and implode on themselves. The Rockets have always had their number going 4-1 in their regular season series last year.

[bald_guy]

Tonight and this month hasn't been kind to us. According to the spreadsheet we only had a profit on the first day. 5 losing nights/days in a row.

So, hopefully that's a sign winning days will be coming again soon. Wants to sing *Happy days are here again*.

[Jayvegas420]

If I see the Raptors on your sheet on Sunday I am going to drive to B.C. to hit you in the head with a tack Hammer!
Nothing too drastic, just enough to set you straight!
I'd rather see you take the Make Beleafs tonight, before the Raps!
Good Luck today D2D.

[l3randonf]

Does anyone else think that the line for Seahawks/Niners has serious value? Seahawks DOGS against a team they have dominated. Only plus I can see for San Fran is home field and revenge factor. Surely not enough to take down the Seahawks?

[fitguy67]

When a capper that you know is consistently good has a sub-par week, that's the perfect time to begin tailing them if you're looking for a time to start.

ideally, once an equity "uptrend" is confirmed (graphically by a pattern of "higher bottoms" on the chart--here the bankroll-equity graph) you want to be getting in just after the formation of a new "higher bottom" (ie. after the first up-day following the slump)...

"technical analysis" aims at (among other things) helping the trader to skillfully time these entry points...

to start tailing, jumping on when he's red hot (ie. moving with the uptrend) is usually not a good idea, as it's like buying near the top that is due to form soon...better to wait for the inevitable slump to occur (ie. equity moving counter-trend) and THEN wait for at least one up-day (hopefully signalling the resumption of the trend...when u hear baldguy singing "happy days are here again")

timing the start of your tailgating is exactly analogous to timing your purchase of an asset...in the very long term it doesn't matter...but getting it wrong and buying into a top instead of a bottom means you're likely in for a harder time during that all-important "honeymoon period" when you're guaging how much to "trust" the guy you started tailing (or the stock you bought), and the more likely it is to get discouraged and hop off an ultimately very lucrative thing...

[Ralphie Halves]

ideally, once an equity "uptrend" is confirmed (graphically by a pattern of "higher bottoms" on the chart--here the bankroll-equity graph) you want to be getting in just after the formation of a new "higher bottom" (ie. after the first up-day following the slump)...

"technical analysis" aims at (among other things) helping the trader to skillfully time these entry points...

to start tailing, jumping on when he's red hot (ie. moving with the uptrend) is usually not a good idea, as it's like buying near the top that is due to form soon...better to wait for the inevitable slump to occur (ie. equity moving counter-trend) and THEN wait for at least one up-day (hopefully signalling the resumption of the trend...when u hear baldguy singing "happy days are here again")

timing the start of your tailgating is exactly analogous to timing your purchase of an asset...in the very long term it doesn't matter...but getting it wrong and buying into a top instead of a bottom means you're likely in for a harder time during that all-important "honeymoon period" when you're guaging how much to "trust" the guy you started tailing (or the stock you bought), and the more likely it is to get discouraged and hop off an ultimately very lucrative thing...

You're preaching to the choir my friend. I'm a Forex trader, I know all about buying dips and selling rallies. We're just in a consolidation phase right now, where smart money is buying big for a move higher.

[vividjohn45]

To many wagers for my taste. Recipe for bankroll disaster. I know u did well last year. Id rarher put 500 on the best pick of the day. A sharp would know what the best play of the day is anyway. Based on whatever criteria of that days card. In the end there can only be ONE BEST PLAY of the day.

[vividjohn45]

I dont have 500 for a game anyway. Id like to build up to that. Bu consistent winning and setting aside some of my paycheck. Every 2 weeks.

[vividjohn45]

But my point is valid because i would not handle my bankroll the way you do. I dont give a rats about ur 5 plays a day. I just want the top one man.

[2daBank]

But my point is valid because i would not handle my bankroll the way you do. I dont give a rats about ur 5 plays a day. I just want the top one man.

and no one gives a rats ass how you handle your "bankroll" , you seriously cant figure out the best play yourself, get another hobby..

[2daBank]

I dont have 500 for a game anyway. Id like to build up to that. Bu consistent winning and setting aside some of my paycheck. Every 2 weeks.

lmao..and you had the balls to say because your a "pro" (my ass) that you have more money than who?...keep chipping away out of those paychecks little worker ant..

[TC Woods]

lmao..and you had the balls to say because your a "pro" (my ass) that you have more money than who?...keep chipping away out of those paychecks little worker ant..

[Dollars2Donuts]

I am going to ignore the drama above. Frankly, I don't really care about any of it.

I bet how I bet, I am ahead plays and ahead units since I started posting a week ago, and last year I won across every month and ended up at 55-56% on over more than 1000 wagers. If somebody just wants the best plays then they can just bet on the play that I have bet the most on as it is my highest rated play.

Now, on to the important stuff. The games in the NBA the last three days have been VERY skewed. If somebody had just been on 'overs' they would be RAKING and of course that will change. Any good capper knows that the over is the public bet 80% of the time.

We have seen some amazing shooting teams go for 25% and I believe that these games are outliers and need to be ignored, BUT the problem is right now there are too many outliers. Today's card in the NBA is scary.

The last few days have made no sense and the problem is that the craziness will skew the next few days. What would we do with Portland today? Golden State? Etc????? When coming off of crazy weird games it is tough to tell what will happen the next game, and frankly in the nba I cap almost exclusively on how teams react to their last games. When those games are ao far 'off' it makes what I do almost impossible.

In other words the next day or two we tread very lightly in the NBA. It sucks, but I just see no other way around it.

Wagers for the day will be posted a little later. Good luck today everyone.

[Bawth]

d2d.. why arent you on sharks in regulation or sharks -1?

Because Cam Ward is a beast and Eric Staal has been hot recently. Take Carolina -1.5 at +430

Hope you followed.

[fitguy67]

You're preaching to the choir my friend. I'm a Forex trader, I know all about buying dips and selling rallies. We're just in a consolidation phase right now, where smart money is buying big for a move higher.

we're on the same page, Ralphie...i was trying to tone down the "technical analysis" jargon...which all boils down if you think of it...in layman's terms, as ways to help us identify and "buy higher bottoms" and/or "sell lower tops"...

every trader of any asset/potential-asset...both the standard financial types and sport-bets which are almost completely analogous to financial options (game-finish = the expiration)...would do well to plot and analyze their own bankroll-equity on a daily basis...and analyze their own pattern of up-moves/down-movess which generate the all important tops/bottoms that emerge for whatever time-frame one is interested in

the bankroll of the trader/bettor is itself a "stock" that you can buy (ie. start tailing) or sell (ie. start fading) or simply sit on the sidelines...the technical analysis toolkit can be used whatever the underlying aset is (commerce or trading/betting activity) that generates the equity-chart...but one need not get carried away in the minutiae of the tecniques...the focus should always be on identifying and profiting from the pattern of tops and bottoms as they emerge

[Grunch]

So you're saying that how lucky/unlucky a bettor gets on any given day influences the probability of them getting lucky/unlucky on the next day. That's completely moronic.

[fitguy67]

If somebody just wants the best plays then they can just bet on the play that I have bet the most on as it is my highest rated play.

For the life of me, i can't figure out how people need to be told that.

[Coreos]

I am going to ignore the drama above. Frankly, I don't really care about any of it.

I bet how I bet, I am ahead plays and ahead units since I started posting a week ago, and last year I won across every month and ended up at 55-56% on over more than 1000 wagers. If somebody just wants the best plays then they can just bet on the play that I have bet the most on as it is my highest rated play.

Now, on to the important stuff. The games in the NBA the last three days have been VERY skewed. If somebody had just been on 'overs' they would be RAKING and of course that will change. Any good capper knows that the over is the public bet 80% of the time.

We have seen some amazing shooting teams go for 25% and I believe that these games are outliers and need to be ignored, BUT the problem is right now there are too many outliers. Today's card in the NBA is scary.

The last few days have made no sense and the problem is that the craziness will skew the next few days. What would we do with Portland today? Golden State? Etc????? When coming off of crazy weird games it is tough to tell what will happen the next game, and frankly in the nba I cap almost exclusively on how teams react to their last games. When those games are ao far 'off' it makes what I do almost impossible.

In other words the next day or two we tread very lightly in the NBA. It sucks, but I just see no other way around it.

Wagers for the day will be posted a little later. Good luck today everyone.

I firmly believe that each sport has a sweet spot, IMO, that is in the middle of the season. The games across the board have been weird of late. Maybe the end of CFB and NFL is affecting everything - crazy suggestion but that's how I feel right now.

[fitguy67]

So you're saying that how lucky/unlucky a bettor gets on any given day influences the probability of them getting lucky/unlucky on the next day. That's completely moronic.

responding to this properly is far beyond the scope of what you're likely ready to consider, based on the tone of your post...

but should you really be interested,
to get you started, google the following topics:

probability: classical probability vs. bayesian probability
fractal nature of reality: emphasizing the fact that any apparently simple uni-directional move is in reality the result of a series of pro-trend moves and counter-trend corrections to it...meaning, yes Virginia...the longer any movement proceeds in one direction...eg. 9 heads in successive coin-tosses or 9 up-days for D2D...the greater is the likelihood of at least a correctional move against it...here's where an intelligent person must grasp the two different apparently-contradictory but perfectly-compatible approaches to probability...as, of course the CLASSICAL probability of another head on the very next toss, CONSIDERED AS A SINGLE INDEPENDENT EVENT, remains unchanged at 50%...any moron CAN comprehend that

BUT that is not the whole picture of what's going on: the harder to comprehend but ultimately more useful parts need bayesian probability and statistics. This deals with considering each individual event as occurring not in a one-at-a-time vacuum, but as part of a chain events that led to the present situation...then yes, regression to mean values will (mathematically must) eventually occur...and it is increasingly likely to start sooner rather than later the further a series of events has pulled things away from that mean...up-moves eventually end--and form those things we call "tops"...down-moves end--and form "bottoms"...everything moves in a series of "overshoots" and "corrective undershoots"...

consider a plane flying from Vancouver to HongKong...how much time is actually spent on the straight line path...almost none...it's all overshoots/undershoots...and the greater is the divergence from the theoretical straight path...the more likely and more powerful is the counter-move likely to be

replace the plane trip with a worm spinning silk or D2D trying to make us money--and succeeding--BUT spending a surprisingly hi-% of days doing exactly the opposite

__________

In a practical nutshell

go into a casino...see that Red has come up 16 times in a row (on a typical wheel spinning once a minute 24/7 this happens at least a few times a day...but getting to 20 happens only a few times a month...getting to 24 happens only a few times a year...what's going on here?)...ok, Red's come up 16 times in a row...if i tell you to choose one color and you must bet $100 on that same color 8 spins in a row, whaddya gonna do? pick one color at random cuz it's moronic to think that what led up to where we are influences in any way what's likely to happen from a classical-probability perspective and one color is as good as the other...hell no, unless you're a moron, you'll intuitively apply bayesian probability in what we humans have come to call "common sense"...

[Pinealgland]

So you're saying that how lucky/unlucky a bettor gets on any given day influences the probability of them getting lucky/unlucky on the next day. That's completely moronic.

No I think you misinterpreted what he was saying..

He means any given teams PERFORMANCE on the night before SHOULD influence the teams performance on the next night. Has nothing to do with luck.

This could mean a handful of things though, and that view is what differentiates us as cappers. If a team plays terrible D the night before some cappers may want to bet the other team or the over on the next game. Other cappers may think the team turns it around and plays better d the next night. All he's saying is there is hints for the future when looking at any given teams last few games.

[Jayvegas420]

we're on the same page, Ralphie...i was trying to tone down the "technical analysis" jargon...which all boils down if you think of it...in layman's terms, as ways to help us identify and "buy higher bottoms" and/or "sell lower tops"...

every trader of any asset/potential-asset...both the standard financial types and sport-bets which are almost completely analogous to financial options (game-finish = the expiration)...would do well to plot and analyze their own bankroll-equity on a daily basis...and analyze their own pattern of up-moves/down-movess which generate the all important tops/bottoms that emerge for whatever time-frame one is interested in

the bankroll of the trader/bettor is itself a "stock" that you can buy (ie. start tailing) or sell (ie. start fading) or simply sit on the sidelines...the technical analysis toolkit can be used whatever the underlying aset is (commerce or trading/betting activity) that generates the equity-chart...but one need not get carried away in the minutiae of the tecniques...the focus should always be on identifying and profiting from the pattern of tops and bottoms as they emerge

So why is it that players don't apply this philosophy to streaks & trends that apply to the game itself. Like ATS records & over/under trends?

[2daBank]

Apologies for even bringing that in here d2 and crew but that guy just got done telling me in pt that if u not a "pro" u broke and he superior. So naturally when I read that post I couldn't help myself.. Not my nature to bring crap to other ppls threads as I don't like it in mine either.. My bad..

[Jayvegas420]

Yeah, sorry for my post too.
Let's get down to business.

[fitguy67]

Apologies for even bringing that in here d2 and crew but that guy just got done telling me in pt that if u not a "pro" u broke and he superior. So naturally when I read that post I couldn't help myself.. Not my nature to bring crap to other ppls threads as I don't like it in mine either.. My bad..

that attitude burns my ass to, bank...reminds me of the worst sack of excrement i remember here, named "frizelli"...he promised he'd never return on a stack of bibles as a condition to getting his points-debts covered by a former mod, Shari...but i doubt he'd be able to resist resurrecting himself...even if not him (probably not, the join-dates don't mesh) it's that attitude that deserves ridicule...

as long as you're not interacting directly with'em it's ok to talk ABOUT 'em with the disdain they deserve...
anyhow enjoy this "obituary" to "frizelli" and all Pro-Status obsessed idiots like him

Shari got rid of the biggest oxygen-wasting points-stiffing creep Frizelli...by agreeing to pay his points debts...

in return he promised to leave for good and to conscientiously brush his teeth at least once a month...whether they needed it or not

on his gravestone will be etched "i WAS an SBR pro!!!!..how can they bury me here with all these NEVER WAS SBR-Pros!"

that guy was the biggest dikk ever. with others like dai-homo-sausage, u know it's a traffic-attracting act...but with frizelli, you knew u are dealing with someone with self esteem issues so severe that the thing he is actually most proud of in his pathetic existence is his fukkin' SBR Pro "status"

[Noleafclover]

see that Red has come up 16 times in a row (on a typical wheel spinning once a minute 24/7 this happens at least a few times a day...but getting to 20 happens only a few times a month...getting to 24 happens only a few times a year...what's going on here?)...ok, Red's come up 16 times in a row...if i tell you to choose one color and you must bet $100 on that same color 8 spins in a row, whaddya gonna do? pick one color at random cuz it's moronic to think that what led up to where we are influences in any way what's likely to happen from a classical-probability perspective and one color is as good as the other...hell no, unless you're a moron, you'll intuitively apply bayesian probability in what we humans have come to call "common sense"...

Much respect fitguy, but have to disagree here. This is the definition of gambler's fallacy, and while I do believe there are reasons to expect handicappers to turn it around (I tend to think we - or at least I - get cocky when we're hot and that's how we fall, then knuckle down when we're losing and that's how we get back), it's not purely based off past results, taking them into account of the current probability. That truly is gambler's fallacy and has been disproved.

[Dollars2Donuts]

Alrighty, back to the good stuff:

I really like a lot of road dogs to come through in the NHL tonight. My favourite play tonight, BY FAR, is the over in the NJ/NYR game. A lot of things lead me that way, and I am thinking this is as good a spot as any to get my money in.

When analyzing the NBA card this morning and then again this afternoon, my biggest problem is that all of the lines are moving in the same direction as I was thinking.....that means everywhere I am on the public side in the NBA right now, and right now nobody is making money except the books. I am going to wait out this huge point explosion (we saw it last year in the NBA right after the all star break) and wait for totals to be skewed up.....then start hitting the unders when this trend is broken. This last ten games, the games are averaging 12 points more than last year. That is insane and will not keep up.

You will notice a few things....I have kept the card light and bet fewer units than I would normally. As I said before, right now there is just a weird feeling going on, especially in the NBA. That Portland game last night was outrageous...and it happened almost all the way across the board. I am not worried in the least about recent trends with my win/loss ratio....I am still up units and frankly, even if I dip below level ground, that is not unusual and does happen to everyone.

Good luck tonight and keep up the good constructive chat on the thread....and down with the drama....I won't acknowledge it here....until later!

D2D

[Dollars2Donuts]

Lol, sorry....that was last night's card. That's the problem with operating with two laptops.

214875649-1	12/7/13 4:28pm	$61.00	$50.00		Pending	12/7/13 7:05pm Reduced Hockey 53 Pittsburgh Penguins/Boston Bruins Over 5 -122*
214875649-2	12/7/13 4:28pm	$50.00	$115.00		Pending	12/7/13 7:05pm Reduced Hockey 55 Buffalo Sabres +230* <small>vs</small> Montreal Canadiens
214875649-3	12/7/13 4:28pm	$139.00	$100.00		Pending	12/7/13 7:05pm Reduced Hockey 64 Detroit Red Wings -139* <small>vs</small> Florida Panthers
214875649-4	12/7/13 4:28pm	$50.00	$84.00		Pending	12/7/13 7:35pm Reduced Hockey 65 New Jersey Devils +168* <small>vs</small> New York Rangers
214875649-5	12/7/13 4:28pm	$150.00	$195.00		Pending	12/7/13 7:35pm Reduced Hockey 65 New Jersey Devils/New York Rangers Over 5 +130*
214875649-6	12/7/13 4:28pm	$50.00	$80.00		Pending	12/7/13 10:05pm Reduced Hockey 69 Calgary Flames +160* <small>vs</small> Edmonton Oilers
214875020-1	12/7/13 4:24pm	$70.00	$50.00		Pending	12/7/13 8:05pm Reduced Basketball 510 Chicago Bulls -140* <small>vs</small> Detroit Pistons
214875020-2	12/7/13 4:24pm	$103.00	$100.00		Pending	12/7/13 8:35pm Reduced Basketball 511 Indiana Pacers +3½ -103* <small>vs</small> San Antonio Spurs
214875020-3	12/7/13 4:24pm	$50.00	$65.00		Pending	12/7/13 8:35pm Reduced Basketball 514 Milwaukee Bucks +130* <small>vs</small> Brooklyn Nets
214875020-4	12/7/13 4:24pm	$105.00	$100.00		Pending	12/7/13 10:05pm Reduced Basketball 518 Portland Trailblazers -5 -105* <small>vs</small> Dallas Mavericks

[fitguy67]

So why is it that players don't apply this philosophy to streaks & trends that apply to the game itself. Like ATS records & over/under trends?

It does. I read a fascinating article a several months ago about this mega-smart mega-successful late-30-somethings Canadian guy who's made a killing over the years with very-hi-level quantitative analysis of the NBA...he's put together a team of math/stats/programming guys to build & maintain an ever-evolving super-secret model that incorporates all sorts of of quantifiable minutiae that come together to make up a basketball game...and part of it definitely considers "due-ness to regress to the mean values for this team"...essentially looking for "toppy"/"bottomy" bubbles ready to break.

Interesting part of the article was the idea of "diminishing returns to modelling"...when the guy started doing things super-quantitatively in earnest a dozen years ago it was easy pickens and a fat 5%+ ROI resulted...but as the books themselves have started building increasingly-comprehensive models for setting their lines (which also, sure as shit, will have prominent "technical analysis" aspects such as considering if a team has an extreme-thus-unsustainable ATS or OU thing going)...anyhow, because the books are increasingly able to draw their line more closely to that of his team's...his edge has fallen considerably.

If anyone else remembers, and can link to this article (that was featured in a thread in the PT forum, of all places, a while ago), it'd be great.

[El Sol]

Much respect fitguy, but have to disagree here. This is the definition of gambler's fallacy, and while I do believe there are reasons to expect handicappers to turn it around (I tend to think we - or at least I - get cocky when we're hot and that's how we fall, then knuckle down when we're losing and that's how we get back), it's not purely based off past results, taking them into account of the current probability. That truly is gambler's fallacy and has been disproved.

I second this Noleaf...that scenario is the perfect definition of 'Gamblers Fallacy' and in no way is this 'Common sense.' Past results can affect future results in sports betting because Players can get injured or suspended etc. but in games of chance like roulette...every spin will always be a unique and individual event. Thinking otherwise is a recipe for certain disaster.

[Dollars2Donuts]

Ok, I have to chime in here.....as a dedicated stats guy, I SOOOOO want to agree that trends are impossible, and that they do not exist, BUT....and this is my problem with it.....real life interferes.

There should be no trends at a card table, no trends in blackjack, but....beyond the pure statistics of it, there are. For whatever reason....and I wish I knew what it was, something happens and statisctics just do not apply. Do you know how many times I have lost 20 hands of Blackjack playing live? The odds of this happening are less than less than one in a million, and yet I have seen it numerous times....have I played billions of hands of Blackjack? I sure hope not.

Now, it sports wagering this can be more easily explained, BECAUSE there is a HUMAN ELEMENT. In this thread, I am that human element, and there will certainly be times, beyond stats, where I am dialed in and others where I am distracted and not on my game. If a bettor that wants to follow me watches me through a trend down, and jumps back on when he sees that turn around....well, that is SMART. These people here have no idea what mood I am in, or even whether or not I am revealing my real picks (they are, no worries there, but folks, this is the internet!!).

I agree when it comes to the simple red/black of the roulette table....20 black in a row mean nothing, but if I had to bet the next 8 I can tell you, as a gambler I am still going red....even though I know it means nothing.

That's my two cents here.....as I said, it sometimes goes beyond stats, even though as a stats man I hate to say it.

Now, let's win some money!

D2D

[16johnnymac]

Today I have information that game in NBA (Sacramento Kings – Utah Jazz) is sold. Price for information – 300 EUR or 360 USD.

The information tha I have are for internal use bookmaker company where I work. Sources are our informants around the world who infiltrated of sports and betting environment.

If you are interested in working with me please contact me:

oskar.stelmer@aol.com

Just like your college football last night
Big Loser!!!!

[Dollars2Donuts]

Just like your college football last night
Big Loser!!!!

Just ignore it and flag it as spam. Responding to it just clutters the thread with crap.

Thanks

[Noleafclover]

Part of that may be selective memory bias, or w/e its called, D2D. We remember what's noteworthy. Another thing worth mentioning is that the odds actually fluctuate a great deal in blackjack, which makes losing 20 hands in a row more likely than 20 1%-shaved coinflips against a low-count (I assume you know but that means few face cards) deck. I suppose that may be something of a quibble... IDK.

GL today! And thanks for zeroing in on that hockey bet being your best hockey one in a while.

[Jayvegas420]

I look at it like yes, you are a human which creates the human element, but you are also wagering on lines created by other humans.
Cards are cards but the bookies create that human element you are talking about.
Lets get the books tonight!