Ufc162 7/6 mma ~max wager~

[El Nino]

[BIGDAY]

[Beelzebubzy]

On Edgar large here.

What is the hedge? SOTN or ITD?

[BIGDAY]

Hedge would be chuckie O by split dec. lol

[El Nino]

On Edgar large here.

What is the hedge? SOTN or ITD?

You do NOT hedge a BIGDAY max wager.

You pound it and don't look back.

[BIGDAY]

There's no hedge in max wagers. Correct.

I only say split dec in case dip sh!t judges can't tell their arse front their ears.

This is a mismatch like Mendes vs McKinzee

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Easy Cash to be had this weekend fellas!

Frankie Edgar -440
No idea how Oliveira even comes close. Edgar by Dec.

Have a great 4th of July week!

I forgot to include that Edgar has done quite a bit of sparring with Barbosa. Barbosa was an important component in Frankie's preparation for Aldo. He will carry that knowledge into the cage against Oliveira as well. As I said before Frankie should win. If this match took place 6 months to a year ago I would have bet my house. However, it's too risky at this point in time. Instead I have half my bank roll on Pierce. 10% on a Pierce/Swanson parlay, 10% Pierce/Baczynski parlay, 20% Pierce/Barbosa, 5% on Gracie, 1% Pierce/Swanson/Baczynski/Barbosa/Silva parlay. Happy 4th BIGDAY!

[BIGDAY]

GL Ron!!

Hope you cash big!

[Sacrelicious]

Frankie Edgar opened at -280.

He was also -400 or better for close to a month.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

I forgot to include that Edgar has done quite a bit of sparring with Barbosa. Barbosa was an important component in Frankie's preparation for Aldo. He will carry that knowledge into the cage against Oliveira as well. As I said before Frankie should win. If this match took place 6 months to a year ago I would have bet my house. However, it's too risky at this point in time. Instead I have half my bank roll on Pierce. 10% on a Pierce/Swanson parlay, 10% Pierce/Baczynski parlay, 20% Pierce/Barbosa, 5% on Gracie, 1% Pierce/Swanson/Baczynski/Barbosa/Silva parlay. Happy 4th BIGDAY!

So, just so we're clear you have roughly 46% of your entire bankroll riding on Pierce (who's already implied to win >85% of the time)?

I've heard of Kelly, 1/4 Kelly, 1/8 Kelly, R Kelly. Is this exponential Kelly or some other new iteration like winnerz Kelly?

[MD]

So, just so we're clear you have roughly 46% of your entire bankroll riding on Pierce (who's already implied to win >85% of the time)?

I've heard of Kelly, 1/4 Kelly, 1/8 Kelly, R Kelly. Is this exponential Kelly or some other new iteration like winnerz Kelly?

No, of course not! That would be ridiculous. Learn to read, bro.

He has 96% of his bankroll on Mike Pierce.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

No, of course not! That would be ridiculous. Learn to read, bro.

He has 96% of his bankroll on Mike Pierce.

LOL. I started typing out 96% but then I gave him the benefit of the doubt as I read, re-read & re-re-read the "I have half my bankroll on Pierce" line to be a summary statement before he listed off a glorious clusterpenetrate of overlapping parlays that would even make winnerz BR gurus like Gaberz blush.

[MD]

LOL. I started typing out 96% but then I gave him the benefit of the doubt as I read, re-read & re-re-read the "I have half my bankroll on Pierce" line to be a summary statement before he listed off a glorious clusterpenetrate of overlapping parlays that would even make winnerz BR gurus like Gaberz blush.

Look at his post history. It'll amaze you. He's so obvious a troll. Supposedly had 90% of his roll on GGG the other night.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Ahh but MD you forgot the winnerz clause which states that any bets posted on a fighter who's rolled up in parlays doesn't count towards your total percent bankroll exposed on said fighter. Straight bets = exposure. Parlay betting provide magical value & maximum fury power.

[Vaughany]

So, just so we're clear you have roughly 46% of your entire bankroll riding on Pierce (who's already implied to win >85% of the time)?

I've heard of Kelly, 1/4 Kelly, 1/8 Kelly, R Kelly. Is this exponential Kelly or some other new iteration like winnerz Kelly?

GaberzCriterion

[snufflyjoe]

Mate this is a bad spot for an "mma max wager" on edgar. The line as is stands now if way too short even at the -440 you got.

Fighters coming off titles losses (three in Edgar's case) facing a +440 opponent
are risky propositions from what i have seen especially against a gifted offensive fighter like Oliveira.

100% Edgar is the rightful favourite and will most likely win. But in my opinions there a few concerns both about the situation as well as the match up.

I do not give Edgar a speed advantage in this fight , Oliveira is as quick if not more quick than Edgar. Speed is a huge factor in Edgar's style being effective imo .Oliveira is also very offensive with subs.

Most likely you will win but imo there are enough genuine concerns to make this the wrong spot.

[BIGDAY]

Mate this is a bad spot for an "mma max wager" on edgar. The line as is stands now if way too short even at the -440 you got.

Fighters coming off titles losses (three in Edgar's case) facing a +440 opponent
are risky propositions from what i have seen especially against a gifted offensive fighter like Oliveira.

100% Edgar is the rightful favourite and will most likely win. But in my opinions there a few concerns both about the situation as well as the match up.

I do not give Edgar a speed advantage in this fight , Oliveira is as quick if not more quick than Edgar. Speed is a huge factor in Edgar's style being effective imo .Oliveira is also very offensive with subs.

Most likely you will win but imo there are enough genuine concerns to make this the wrong spot.

Trust me, a lot of my capping goes into when to fade a popular fighter at the end of his career.
Not this case imo. Frankie still has gas in that tank.
GL with your wagers.

[mmaed]

Mate this is a bad spot for an "mma max wager" on edgar. The line as is stands now if way too short even at the -440 you got.

Fighters coming off titles losses (three in Edgar's case) facing a +440 opponent
are risky propositions from what i have seen especially against a gifted offensive fighter like Oliveira.

100% Edgar is the rightful favourite and will most likely win. But in my opinions there a few concerns both about the situation as well as the match up.

I do not give Edgar a speed advantage in this fight , Oliveira is as quick if not more quick than Edgar. Speed is a huge factor in Edgar's style being effective imo .Oliveira is also very offensive with subs.

Most likely you will win but imo there are enough genuine concerns to make this the wrong spot.

I feel this a little bit.

[Thor4140]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/boxing-mma-ufc-betting/2427216-just-locked-these-post-your-plays-thread.html

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Look at his post history. It'll amaze you. He's so obvious a troll. Supposedly had 90% of his roll on GGG the other night.

Macklin had ZERO chance of going the distance with GGG. I started boxing around 1991. As someone who understand's the sweet science probably better then anyone on this mostly MMA board I can tell you that I had absolutely no reservations on my GGG wager. He has been the next big thing for about 2 years now. From the boxing posts I have read it is abundantly clear to me that 95% of what is taking place in the boxing ring goes unnoticed or is completely over the head of most observers. All the different baits, traps, set ups, foot work, positioning, pacing, etc. I could go on & on. There is a reason most successful pro boxers start around age 12 or even younger. It takes years to learn and master all the subtle nuances of The Sweet Science. When you posted that you saw value in Macklin going the distance I just about fell out of my chair. The fact that you still seem bewildered that I was willing to wager so heavily on GGG tells me that you have never stepped in a ring & thus have never received any coaching in order to understand everything that goes into The Sweet Science. You are absolutely clueless. Oh and FYI my Pierce straight and Pierce/Barbosa parlays will cash. My big parlays ALWAYS DO. And yes I will happily remind you of this after they cash. Class Dismissed.

[MD]

Macklin had ZERO chance of going the distance with GGG. I started boxing around 1991. As someone who understand's the sweet science probably better then anyone on this mostly MMA board I can tell you that I had absolutely no reservations on my GGG wager. He has been the next big thing for about 2 years now. From the boxing posts I have read it is abundantly clear to me that 95% of what is taking place in the boxing ring goes unnoticed or is completely over the head of most observers. All the different baits, traps, set ups, foot work, positioning, pacing, etc. I could go on & on. There is a reason most successful pro boxers start around age 12 or even younger. It takes years to learn and master all the subtle nuances of The Sweet Science. When you posted that you saw value in Macklin going the distance I just about fell out of my chair. The fact that you still seem bewildered that I was willing to wager so heavily on GGG tells me that you have never stepped in a ring & thus have never received any coaching in order to understand everything that goes into The Sweet Science. You are absolutely clueless. Oh and FYI my Pierce straight and Pierce/Barbosa parlays will cash. My big parlays ALWAYS DO. And yes I will happily remind you of this after they cash. Class Dismissed.

You claim so much about what you know, but yet you neglect the fact that you do not know how to gamble properly.

[Crassus]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/boxing-mma...ys-thread.html

Bigday max wagers are new thread worthy endeavors Thor. The rest not so much but this, yes.

[Educ8d Degener8]

Who dafuq is Barbosa? He played for the Suns right?

[mirinquads]

Edgar and ITD play would be good here, if Oliver wins its by stoppage and Edgar is pretty likely to finish Oliveoil in my opinion, especially in a 3 rounder. Cover your Edgar play with it and You're damn likely to profit, although I haven't seen the line.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

You claim so much about what you know, but yet you neglect the fact that you do not know how to gamble properly.

Over the last 13 month's I have increased my starting bankroll by a multiple of 82. I do not use someone else's strategies. I do not have any use for pre-canned formula's. I rely on a near eidetic memory and an extraordinary ability to recognize pattern's, both numeric and in regards to human behavior. If you have increased your starting bank roll by more than 82 times, than more power to you. To be fair I think that you usually have accurate assessments of MMA matches. The only recent comment that seemed puzzling to me was your assessment of Tim Kennedy's striking being better than Vitor Belfort's. Over the last 13 month's I have only lost 2 big parlay's. One being Overeem/Evans and the other Danzig/Franklin.
I highly suggest that anyone who is serious about wagering on combat sports find a knowledgable boxing, muay thai, wrestling and jiu jitsu coach. Put your time in. Ask as many intelligent question's as possible. Get as much info. about technique's and strategy as you can. For anyone who puts thousands if not tens of thousands on the line on a weekly basis, it just strikes me as pure folly to not have a competent coaches understanding of the game.

[The Kraken]

No juice on winning bets

phags

[MD]

Over the last 13 month's I have increased my starting bankroll by a multiple of 82. I do not use someone else's strategies. I do not have any use for pre-canned formula's. I rely on a near eidetic memory and an extraordinary ability to recognize pattern's, both numeric and in regards to human behavior. If you have increased your starting bank roll by more than 82 times, than more power to you. To be fair I think that you usually have accurate assessments of MMA matches. The only recent comment that seemed puzzling to me was your assessment of Tim Kennedy's striking being better than Vitor Belfort's. Over the last 13 month's I have only lost 2 big parlay's. One being Overeem/Evans and the other Danzig/Franklin.
I highly suggest that anyone who is serious about wagering on combat sports find a knowledgable boxing, muay thai, wrestling and jiu jitsu coach. Put your time in. Ask as many intelligent question's as possible. Get as much info. about technique's and strategy as you can. For anyone who puts thousands if not tens of thousands on the line on a weekly basis, it just strikes me as pure folly to not have a competent coaches understanding of the game.

I've increased my starting bankroll by a lot more than 82 times; I don't believe you at all, though. Losing one parlay for you is like 80% of your roll, and I know you were on both Rashad and Overeem.

The fact of the matter is that if you continue to put 90% of your roll on a fight, you will lose catastrophically eventually. Refusing to acknowledge that simply shows a poor understanding of variance. Also, I only said that Kennedy is a better striker than Vitor to troll the guy I was arguing with. It always makes me laugh when people bring it up though. No one ever brings up the time I said that Fedor should have won the decision against Sam Stout though, that was my favourite. He should have really retired after that, getting KO'd by Hendo and then losing to Stout is a tough run.

[Demonata]

Taking Oliveira small. He has a chance to win if it gets to the ground. He's not bad at submitting his opponents. Like his submission techniques.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Over the last 13 month's I have increased my starting bankroll by a multiple of 82. I do not use someone else's strategies. I do not have any use for pre-canned formula's. I rely on a near eidetic memory and an extraordinary ability to recognize pattern's, both numeric and in regards to human behavior. If you have increased your starting bank roll by more than 82 times, than more power to you. To be fair I think that you usually have accurate assessments of MMA matches. The only recent comment that seemed puzzling to me was your assessment of Tim Kennedy's striking being better than Vitor Belfort's. Over the last 13 month's I have only lost 2 big parlay's. One being Overeem/Evans and the other Danzig/Franklin.
I highly suggest that anyone who is serious about wagering on combat sports find a knowledgable boxing, muay thai, wrestling and jiu jitsu coach. Put your time in. Ask as many intelligent question's as possible. Get as much info. about technique's and strategy as you can. For anyone who puts thousands if not tens of thousands on the line on a weekly basis, it just strikes me as pure folly to not have a competent coaches understanding of the game.

Your strategy works... until it doesn't. You are still in the pleasant before phase. You will not enjoy the after phase.

So let's take you at your word and say you've increased your BR by a multiple of 82. We can choose any number but let's assume your starting BR is $100. Your BR now is approximately $8,200.

You supposedly have 96% of your BR affected by the outcome of one fighter (Mike Pierce) and this is a repetitive strategy you employ (apparently you've done similar things with absolute locks like GGG). When that absolute lock eventually loses - and they always do - even if your read is PERFECT (i.e. fighter injury like Jon Jones' toe had it gone to R2, atrocious reffing, atrocious judges' decision, etc.) you sir are penetrated.

Your BR will go from $8,200 down to $328. Yeah, your multiple will no longer be 82 but instead around 3 thanks to the variance of one outcome.

This is categorically the DUMBEST betting strategy possible. Even a monkey throwing 10 darts on random bets has less risk of ruin than this strategy...



...Actually, that's not entirely true. The dumbest strategy is betting 100% of your BR. At least you've left yourself with enough money to buy a pistol and put yourself out of your misery.

[BIGDAY]

[Vaughany]

I'm sure there were many that had a similar strategy before this happened!

[Vaughany]

[BIGDAY]

Enjoy the weekend Minnesota style fellas!!!!

Hit the water!!

[Wanna Bet On It?]

I'm sure there were many that had a similar strategy before this happened!

No idea who that is. Those guys look smaller than my circumsized rooster

[MD]

Your strategy works... until it doesn't. You are still in the pleasant before phase. You will not enjoy the after phase.

So let's take you at your word and say you've increased your BR by a multiple of 82. We can choose any number but let's assume your starting BR is $100. Your BR now is approximately $8,200.

You supposedly have 96% of your BR affected by the outcome of one fighter (Mike Pierce) and this is a repetitive strategy you employ (apparently you've done similar things with absolute locks like GGG). When that absolute lock eventually loses - and they always do - even if your read is PERFECT (i.e. fighter injury like Jon Jones' toe had it gone to R2, atrocious reffing, atrocious judges' decision, etc.) you sir are penetrated.

Your BR will go from $8,200 down to $328. Yeah, your multiple will no longer be 82 but instead around 3 thanks to the variance of one outcome.

This is categorically the DUMBEST betting strategy possible. Even a monkey throwing 10 darts on random bets has less risk of ruin than this strategy...



...Actually, that's not entirely true. The dumbest strategy is betting 100% of your BR. At least you've left yourself with enough money to buy a pistol and put yourself out of your misery.

Speaking of betting strategies, I actually had 40% of my roll on one bet last year. Was supremely confident and Kelly suggested it, so I never looked back.