Ufc162 7/6 mma ~max wager~

[BIGDAY]

Easy Cash to be had this weekend fellas!

Frankie Edgar -440
No idea how Oliveira even comes close. Edgar by Dec.

Have a great 4th of July week!

[Big Bear]

lots of juice pal

[Big Bear]

what about a parlay w/ silva?

[BIGDAY]

Silva might lose.

Frankie isn't. That simple.

[BIGDAY]

This is a hand fed winner for Frankie.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Easy Cash to be had this weekend fellas!

Frankie Edgar -440
No idea how Oliveira even comes close. Edgar by Dec.

Have a great 4th of July week!

Good Luck! I've been known to lay down a max bet from time to time. I haven't lost one yet. This one is a bit too risky for me to lay down my entire bank roll. But you did get Frankie @ -440 so I can understand why you placed a max bet. Frankie will be slowing down soon, just as Gray Maynard has. Maynard is still a good fighter but getting into wars damages the nervous system which in turn slow's reaction time and effect's timing (accuracy). Frankie should win this fight. However, I'm afraid if not this fight then next fight we will see Edgar's skills incrementally diminish from fight to fight. What happened to Jon Fitch eventually happens to all fighters if they get into enough wars (both in the gym and during the actual fight). I would like to see all combat athletes get paid more. They all pay a terrible price for our entertainment.

[sweep]

[Grabaka]

I almost pooped my pants thinking you maxed Weidman.
Hope is still alive yeeee

[Vaughany]

hahaha

[Wanna Bet On It?]

No. Just no.

I know you're trying to bump your winning percentage of maxibets by betting safe winnerz (you're reasoning for not parlaying is proof enough) but IMsh!ttyO this is not a wise play, regardless of outcome.

Firstly, Edgar is no cheaper than -500 at any American friendly book. How much more often than implied odds of 85+% of the time does Frankie Edgar win this? This is a (burned out?) former champ fighting in a lower weightclass with questionable confidence after 3 straight losses, someone notoriously lacking in finishing ability, and facing an opponent with 4" height/5" reach advantage with a lethal submission game.

Does Frankie win this the (vast) majority of the time? Yeah. How much more often than 85%? Probably nothing perhaps less, given the circumstances. Clear dog or pass...

I'd love to hear technical analysis by Frankie backers on why he wins this more than 85% of the time. All I hear is regurgitated lazycapping about how Frankie can't lose 4 in a row, he arguably beat 2 champs and how Oliveira folds when hit hard (which Frankie doesn't do with frequency).

Betting a combat sports fighter at -500+ in this scenario is -EV. Regardless, good luck cashing. Hopefully it comes through with flying colours because it looks square as penetrate to me.

[BIGDAY]

Wanna... You are off your rocker Suhn.

Frankie wins.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Wanna... You are off your rocker Suhn.

Frankie wins.

Uhh, I said Frankie wins.

Except MMA, like Michael Jackson, isn't black or white. There are (50) shades of grey. And your wife is gonna tie you up to the bedpost and tickle your anus if Frankie poops the bed which I believe is entirely possible 15+% of the time.

High risk, trivial reward. Canine or pass hermano.

[Grabaka]

You wrotte too much mumbo jumbo....he will just answer "there no juice in a winner" and he will place the dancing banana in your face.

[Grabaka]

Canine or pass hermano.

lol i like this phrase

[Vaughany]

Uhh, I said Frankie wins.

Except MMA, like Michael Jackson, isn't black or white. There are (50) shades of grey. And your wife is gonna tie you up to the bedpost and tickle your anus if Frankie poops the bed which I believe is entirely possible 15+% of the time.

High risk, trivial reward. Canine or pass hermano.

lol that's standard foreplay for Bigday anyway!

[MD]

No. Just no.

I know you're trying to bump your winning percentage of maxibets by betting safe winnerz (you're reasoning for not parlaying is proof enough) but IMsh!ttyO this is not a wise play, regardless of outcome.

Firstly, Edgar is no cheaper than -500 at any American friendly book. How much more often than implied odds of 85+% of the time does Frankie Edgar win this? This is a (burned out?) former champ fighting in a lower weightclass with questionable confidence after 3 straight losses, someone notoriously lacking in finishing ability, and facing an opponent with 4" height/5" reach advantage with a lethal submission game.

Does Frankie win this the (vast) majority of the time? Yeah. How much more often than 85%? Probably nothing perhaps less, given the circumstances. Clear dog or pass...

I'd love to hear technical analysis by Frankie backers on why he wins this more than 85% of the time. All I hear is regurgitated lazycapping about how Frankie can't lose 4 in a row, he arguably beat 2 champs and how Oliveira folds when hit hard (which Frankie doesn't do with frequency).

Betting a combat sports fighter at -500+ in this scenario is -EV. Regardless, good luck cashing. Hopefully it comes through with flying colours because it looks square as penetrate to me.

Actually, Edgar has a 72" reach, contrary to wikipedia. Oliveira will have one inch of reach on him.

As for the match-up, I personally think Edgar wins over 90% of the time. I see value, so I'm big on Edgar. I can't disagree with much of what you're saying, though; the lazy handicapping here is almost as bad as in the Rashad vs Hendo fight (where I was very critical of people lazily picking Hendo because "Rashad lost to Nog"). However, I think you and most others are underestimating how hard Frankie hits. He's not a power puncher, but I'd say he's above average at lightweight, even moreso at featherweight, he's been fighting near-unfinishable guys for quite some time. Dropping Bendo is no easy task, either. Nor is KOing Gray Maynard. Ben Henderson hits very hard, but the last guy he finished with strikes was, what, Shane Roller I think? Your analysis is insightful as always, even though I disagree about the play being square (obviously, since I'm on the play ), but I think it doesn't do justice to Edgar to suggest that he doesn't have finishing ability. Most of that is due to fighting much bigger, technical, durable strikers. If you're not being elusive against a guy like Gray Maynard, your strategy is failing you in my opinion.

I also see value in Mike Pierce by the way. That fight is comical.

[Dwil125]

No. Just no.

I know you're trying to bump your winning percentage of maxibets by betting safe winnerz (you're reasoning for not parlaying is proof enough) but IMsh!ttyO this is not a wise play, regardless of outcome.

Firstly, Edgar is no cheaper than -500 at any American friendly book. How much more often than implied odds of 85+% of the time does Frankie Edgar win this? This is a (burned out?) former champ fighting in a lower weightclass with questionable confidence after 3 straight losses, someone notoriously lacking in finishing ability, and facing an opponent with 4" height/5" reach advantage with a lethal submission game.

Does Frankie win this the (vast) majority of the time? Yeah. How much more often than 85%? Probably nothing perhaps less, given the circumstances. Clear dog or pass...

I'd love to hear technical analysis by Frankie backers on why he wins this more than 85% of the time. All I hear is regurgitated lazycapping about how Frankie can't lose 4 in a row, he arguably beat 2 champs and how Oliveira folds when hit hard (which Frankie doesn't do with frequency).

Betting a combat sports fighter at -500+ in this scenario is -EV. Regardless, good luck cashing. Hopefully it comes through with flying colours because it looks square as penetrate to me.

5 inch height, 1 inch reach.

[BIGDAY]

Uhh, I said Frankie wins.

Except MMA, like Michael Jackson, isn't black or white. There are (50) shades of grey. And your wife is gonna tie you up to the bedpost and tickle your anus if Frankie poops the bed which I believe is entirely possible 15+% of the time.

High risk, trivial reward. Canine or pass hermano.

[BIGDAY]

Oh, and I totally forgot my dancing banana...

[Vaughany]

Actually, Edgar has a 72" reach, contrary to wikipedia. Oliveira will have one inch of reach on him.

As for the match-up, I personally think Edgar wins over 90% of the time. I see value, so I'm big on Edgar. I can't disagree with much of what you're saying, though; the lazy handicapping here is almost as bad as in the Rashad vs Hendo fight (where I was very critical of people lazily picking Hendo because "Rashad lost to Nog"). However, I think you and most others are underestimating how hard Frankie hits. He's not a power puncher, but I'd say he's above average at lightweight, even moreso at featherweight, he's been fighting near-unfinishable guys for quite some time. Dropping Bendo is no easy task, either. Nor is KOing Gray Maynard. Ben Henderson hits very hard, but the last guy he finished with strikes was, what, Shane Roller I think? Your analysis is insightful as always, even though I disagree about the play being square (obviously, since I'm on the play ), but I think it doesn't do justice to Edgar to suggest that he doesn't have finishing ability. Most of that is due to fighting much bigger, technical, durable strikers. If you're not being elusive against a guy like Gray Maynard, your strategy is failing you in my opinion.

I also see value in Mike Pierce by the way. That fight is comical.

ha yeah, it's a considerable step-down from each of the three opponents he has previously beaten! How often does that happen?!

[JustinOpinion]

Why do you think Gray has a great chin, MD?

I'm on the other side of it. I don't think Frankie has above average power and I think Gray's chin is a little suspect. I thought that before the TJ Grant fight too, and bet TJ by ko. I look for a potentially poor chin in anyone who partakes in Couture's gym wars, to be honest.

That said, I do think Frankie has enough power to finish Oliveira if he goes after it.

[MD]

ha yeah, it's a considerable step-down from each of the three opponents he has previously beaten! How often does that happen?!

Whenever the UFC really wants to cut someone. How likely do you think it is that they'd cut Pierce if he lost here? I'd say -150. They cut Simpson for losing an exciting fight that he was winning until the stoppage, and he had won four of his last five before that.

[MD]

Why do you think Gray has a great chin, MD?

I'm on the other side of it. I don't think Frankie has above average power and I think Gray's chin is a little suspect. I thought that before the TJ Grant fight too, and bet TJ by ko. I look for a potentially poor chin in anyone who partakes in Couture's gym wars, to be honest.

That said, I do think Frankie has enough power to finish Oliveira if he goes after it.

I was on TJ by KO, too. Also on TJ KO of the night, and I tell the Mike Tyson story to anyone who'll listen.

Gray Maynard pretty much walks through most shots. I've never gotten the impression of a weak chin from him; even in the Grant fight, he ate some serious shots and it took a lot to put him down, same with the Edgar fight.

[BIGDAY]

Whenever the UFC really wants to cut someone. How likely do you think it is that they'd cut Pierce if he lost here? I'd say -150. They cut Simpson for losing an exciting fight that he was winning until the stoppage, and he had won four of his last five before that.

Volkman was another that was winning fights. Those fights were lack luster, but those are the ones that profit rather easily imo.
Dropped Volkman after a loss that he got caught in I believe as well.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Actually, Edgar has a 72" reach, contrary to wikipedia. Oliveira will have one inch of reach on him.

As for the match-up, I personally think Edgar wins over 90% of the time. I see value, so I'm big on Edgar. I can't disagree with much of what you're saying, though; the lazy handicapping here is almost as bad as in the Rashad vs Hendo fight (where I was very critical of people lazily picking Hendo because "Rashad lost to Nog"). However, I think you and most others are underestimating how hard Frankie hits. He's not a power puncher, but I'd say he's above average at lightweight, even moreso at featherweight, he's been fighting near-unfinishable guys for quite some time. Dropping Bendo is no easy task, either. Nor is KOing Gray Maynard. Ben Henderson hits very hard, but the last guy he finished with strikes was, what, Shane Roller I think? Your analysis is insightful as always, even though I disagree about the play being square (obviously, since I'm on the play ), but I think it doesn't do justice to Edgar to suggest that he doesn't have finishing ability. Most of that is due to fighting much bigger, technical, durable strikers. If you're not being elusive against a guy like Gray Maynard, your strategy is failing you in my opinion.

I also see value in Mike Pierce by the way. That fight is comical.

Thanks for clarifying the reach. Shame on me for wikicapping the reach disadvantage. Edgar backers prolly changed it so I'd bet Oliveira over Frankie T-Rex. You guys are smarter than I thought.

Also, I didn't mean to dismiss Frankie's power which I agree is underestimated (I even said he doesn't do with "frequency" rather than "at all" because the little guy can surprise us like he did in R4 of Gray-Frankie III). However, his notorious style is pitter-patter boxing while moving in & out of the pocket against counterstrikers with bigger power (Gray, BJ, Aldo). He's become a master at using his speed advantage against bigger guys to score points while being light on the feet. However, against deficient strikers like Bocek & Veach, he can settle in the pocket more and unload... I readily admit that Do Bronx doesn't really fall into the power punching category although he does have respectable power in his MT (as witnessed in his war with Lentz, illegal knee or not, and his bludgeoning of Brookins on the feet).

Frankie's style is a bit of a clusterpenetrate (great word) for me to figure out in this fight which scares me away from a play. On paper he should roll through Oliveira but with several question marks on a -500 fighter, I can't endorse it personally. Good luck... hopefully you see this fight more clearly & confidently than I do.

[MD]

Thanks for clarifying the reach. Shame on me for wikicapping the reach disadvantage. Edgar backers prolly changed it so I'd bet Oliveira over Frankie T-Rex. You guys are smarter than I thought.

Also, I didn't mean to dismiss Frankie's power which I agree is underestimated (I even said he doesn't do with "frequency" rather than "at all" because the little guy can surprise us like he did in R4 of Gray-Frankie III). However, his notorious style is pitter-patter boxing while moving in & out of the pocket against counterstrikers with bigger power (Gray, BJ, Aldo). He's become a master at using his speed advantage against bigger guys to score points while being light on the feet. However, against deficient strikers like Bocek & Veach, he can settle in the pocket more and unload... I readily admit that Do Bronx doesn't really fall into the power punching category although he does have respectable power in his MT (as witnessed in his war with Lentz, illegal knee or not, and his bludgeoning of Brookins on the feet).

Frankie's style is a bit of a clusterpenetrate (great word) for me to figure out in this fight which scares me away from a play. On paper he should roll through Oliveira but with several question marks on a -500 fighter, I can't endorse it personally. Good luck... hopefully you see this fight more clearly & confidently than I do.

That's exactly how I feel about it; he's light on his feet and evasive when he needs to be, but he's willing to settle down and brawl when he knows he's at an edge. Very high fight IQ, and I do think he should get the finish here. Oliveira is a decent striker in his own right, he looks like a world-beater against lesser foes, but it's pretty much pure athleticism, rather than any noticeable technique.

You on a side in the Parke/Tokudome fight?

[Wanna Bet On It?]

That's exactly how I feel about it; he's light on his feet and evasive when he needs to be, but he's willing to settle down and brawl when he knows he's at an edge. Very high fight IQ, and I do think he should get the finish here. Oliveira is a decent striker in his own right, he looks like a world-beater against lesser foes, but it's pretty much pure athleticism, rather than any noticeable technique.

You on a side in the Parke/Tokudome fight?

Nah. Not yet.

The lazycapper in me wants to fade Tokudome from his unimpressive affair against Marcello (in what little I couldn't erase from my brain) but I haven't put any thought or research into this fight. My pick is "Pick me" but not sure about a bet at 65% implied.

[MD]

Nah. Not yet.

The lazycapper in me wants to fade Tokudome from his unimpressive affair against Marcello (in what little I couldn't erase from my brain) but I haven't put any thought or research into this fight. My pick is "Pick me" but not sure about a bet at 65% implied.

I'll PM you my thoughts.

[Demonata]

Oh my god. Acting like you are helping us out with a pick with no value and is heavily favored.

[MD]

Oh my god. Acting like you are helping us out with a pick with no value and is heavily favored.

The point of handicapping is in finding value where other people do not.

[Demonata]

The point of handicapping is in finding value where other people do not.

No value with that bet.

[MD]

Did you even read what I just said?

[Grabaka]

I'll PM you my thoughts.

I have a lean here and eyeing a bet. Can you send me yours and ill send you mine as soon as i write my thoughts?

[Beelzebubzy]

I have a lean here and eyeing a bet. Can you send me yours and ill send you mine as soon as i write my thoughts?

This reminds me of 5th grade
ill show you my rooster if you show me your boobs

[BIGDAY]

Oh my god. Acting like you are helping us out with a pick with no value and is heavily favored.

Im slamming the fukker you fuk stick.

Sit n spin Motha fukk.