Model for estimating MLB run totals. Now time to beta test.

[matthew919]

Sorry benjy- doing so would undermine the purpose of the thread, as well as its intended audience. When I'm done posting for the year, I'll likely tally things up. But not now.

There will be no food for trolls here.

[benjy]

No worries. Just thought I'd ask. Thanks for the reply.

One little suggestion: Using 20c for all the on/off values should be updated to closer reflect their observed values. Math minds far better than mine have run the #'s on the "cents" value for on/off the different total values. If I recall correctly they are 7=25c, 8=16c, 9=22c, 10=12c, but I'd check the half-point calculator to be sure (and/or average out the buy/sell difference from Pinny).

[matthew919]

Good advice. I'll make these adjustments eventually, but there's no time on my schedule for it ATM.

First play for 4/25:

BAL/OAK u8 -115

[fitguy67]

Good advice. I'll make these adjustments eventually, but there's no time on my schedule for it ATM.

First play for 4/25:

BAL/OAK u8 -115

is this OAK/bos...or tor/BAL (must be the former cuz tor/BAL started at 12:35)

[matthew919]

^^^ That's for tomorrow's game.

[matthew919]

UPDATE: benjy made a great point- if I'm going to measure my results based on line movement, it makes sense to do it right and not half-ass it. So from now on I'm going to use the 1/2 point calculator to compute the cent movement when the line jumps a half (or full) point off of where I grabbed it, rather than doing it the lazy way and calling each half point 20 cents. It's not much of a change- just a few cents here and there, so some will be more in my favor than previously reported, and some will be less in my favor. But in all pretty balanced.

The west coast games just got underway, so I re-ran the script that reports the updated results through today:

UNDER WAGERS
Line movement accordance: 20-5-2
Avg movement: -8.07c

OVER WAGERS
Line movement accordance: 7-3-1
Avg movement: +8.36c

[matthew919]

For 4/25:

LAD/NYM u8 -105

[matthew919]

Adding, for 4/25:

TB/CHW o7 +100

[Conrad99]

Matthew, do you still plan on no longer posting your picks after a few weeks? I'm interested in tailing but probably only if I can do it long term. Thanks!

[matthew919]

Just added:

TEX/MIN u8.5 +100
COL/ARI u9 -112

Showing some faith in Tepesch's wrist here.

[matthew919]

Matthew, do you still plan on no longer posting your picks after a few weeks? I'm interested in tailing but probably only if I can do it long term. Thanks!

Depends how the next few months play out. I have oral exams coming up for school, which is going to be terrible. So I might take a break and come back, but I really can't say right now.

If you decide to tail, just know that my only claim is that I am able to predict the correct side (from a market standpoint) at a 65-70% rate. For some (like myself), that's all that matters. However, if you don't want to make that huge leap of faith, then what I would do is find the games you already like and then see if I'm on any of the same games. If you're on the same side as me for a game, you might want to bet early, since you are likely to be getting the best price now. If you want the other side, you might decide to hold off and see if the price drops for you.

[matthew919]

Time to play "find the ragged opening lines." It's not very challenging. Kind of reminds me of that Louis CK routine when he talks about playing hide and seek with his daughter:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fqYxxZoXJVc

Anyway, first plays for tomorrow, 4/26 are:
PHI/NYM u7.5 +100,
COL/ARI u9 +100

[matthew919]

Adding, for 4/26:

TB/CHW o7.5 -120

[matthew919]

Wow, LOL @ that COL/ARI line- do the oddsmakers think this one is being played in Coors? Or am I missing an injury report or something? If anyone has an opinion why that's so high I'd love to know.

[GreekMagic]

Tailing here
All the best

[matthew919]

Adding, for 4/26:

BAL/OAK u7.5 +103


CLE game is a no-play for me today, but here's a great read about Kazmir if you like that sort of thing:

http://rayscoloredglasses.com/2013/04/25/does-the-indians-scott-kazmir-have-the-stuff-to-survive-in-the-major-leagues-once-againdoes-scott-kazmir-have-the-stuff-to-survive-in-the-major-leagues/

[matthew919]

Update through 4/25:

UNDER WAGERS
Line movement accordance: 24-5-2
Avg movement: -8.29c

OVER WAGERS
Line movement accordance: 7-4-1
Avg movement: +6.50c

[GreekMagic]

Awesome work
Tailing again today.

[matthew919]

Ok, I decided to take:

CLE/KC u8.5 +105

after all. This number would not be so high if not for Kazmir's last start. If he pitchers at league average, a fairer line is u7.5 -105 or so. I'm basing that on the fact that my simulations use an imputation routine when confronted with small sample sizes for pitchers. And for this game, Kazmir's stats are basically imputed completely from the Americal League league average, since he's pitched basically nothing over the last year. True, this is not the old Scotty, but I'm willing to believe that his true value is somewhere close to league average performance-wise, and therefore I'm willing to trust my model's estimate that there is value here. Good game to keep an eye on though. If he pitches like garbage today I'll eat my words. But in the Bayesian sense, I maintain that this would still have been a good bet with the information present at the time it was made.

[matthew919]

^^^ Adding to the last post's analysis: Kauffman Stadium plays at about league average (runs-wise), BUT it allows far fewer HRs than the average park. Which I figure can only help for a fly ball pitcher...

[alamo]

Matthew, First up great thread and really enjoying it. My question for you is do you play all the picks that you post or is it just the one with the write up (In this case CLE/KC u8.5). Thx in advance.

[matthew919]

Thanks alamo. Yes, I do play everything I post. No air betting here. Although I'm pretty small time- I had to withdraw what little I had in my retirement account from a former job just to get off the ground. But I figure I can make it grow a lot faster betting baseball, so it makes good sense in my mind. (I think my girlfriend is terrified though).

I'm checking out The Go-Betweens on spotify right now, due to your avatar. Good work day soundtrack.

[alamo]

Thanks alamo. Yes, I do play everything I post. No air betting here. Although I'm pretty small time- I had to withdraw what little I had in my retirement account from a former job just to get off the ground. But I figure I can make it grow a lot faster betting baseball, so it makes good sense in my mind. (I think my girlfriend is terrified though).

I'm checking out The Go-Betweens on spotify right now, due to your avatar. Good work day soundtrack.

Cheers dude. I hear ya with the girlfriend thingy. I play poker\sports bet for a living and its getting tougher no doubt but still keeping the charts on the up !

The Go-Bees were a great band, now sadly broken up (lost one of the two singer\songwriters at only 48 so that was that). They left behind a great legacy though. Always the critics favourite but never the public. Who cares though. They still had a cult following. 16 Lovers Lane is a great place to start. Enjoy.

[matthew919]

Sounds about right. The public usually sucks.

Here's some early action for 4/27:

PIT/STL u7.5 +105,
TB/CHW o7.5 +110

[matthew919]

Also for 4/27:

NYM/PHI u7.5 -105

[Hustler11]

Hey man what's your record to date?

[matthew919]

Hey man what's your record to date?

You are asking the wrong question.

[pimpinaces]

Just 2 plays today?

[matthew919]

5 games. Check posts 118 and 119. I'd still play the COL and TB games if I hadn't already, but if you take the NYM game it's sitting at a worse price right now.

[SkivChef]

Update through 4/25:

UNDER WAGERS
Line movement accordance: 24-5-2
Avg movement: -8.29c

OVER WAGERS
Line movement accordance: 7-4-1
Avg movement: +6.50c

I must be missing something i can't get these records to match up?

[matthew919]

Can you be more specific? What's not matching up for you? It's possible I've made an error in my record keeping, so I'd like to know if you spot something that I've miscalculated. Here's my table for record keeping- please feel free to point out any games I've screwed up on. Note: a positive value in the "LineMovement" column indicates that the line moved towards the over, while a negative number represents a move toward the under. Whenever the Wagered line and Closing line differ, I used the SBR half point calculator to get the deviation.

Date	Home	Away	Wager_OU	WageredLine	WageredOdds	PinnyClosingLine	PinnyClosingOdds	LineMovement
20130417	OAK	HOU	U	8	-103	8	-119	-16
20130417	CLE	BOS	U	8	110	8	-108	-18
20130418	PIT	ATL	U	8	-104	8.5	107	29
20130418	NYY	ARI	U	8.5	110	8.5	-115	-25
20130419	LAA	DET	U	8.5	105	8.5	-107	-12
20130419	PIT	ATL	U	7	106	7	111	5
20130419	HOU	CLE	U	8.5	105	8.5	104	-1
20130419	NYM	WAS	O	6.5	100	6.5	111	-11
20130419	TB	OAK	U	7.5	100	7.5	-110	-10
20130420	NYM	WAS	U	7.5	100	7.5	-103	-3
20130420	PIT	ATL	U	7.5	-115	7.5	-123	-8
20130420	COL	ARI	O	9.5	100	9.5	108	-8
20130420	TB	OAK	U	8	-110	8	102	12
20130420	LAA	DET	U	9	-110	9	104	14
20130420	BAL	LAD	U	8.5	-113	8.5	-113	0
20130421	OAK	TB	U	8.5	-110	8	-108	-16
20130421	ATL	PIT	U	7.5	-105	7	107	-19
20130421	STL	PHI	U	8.5	-110	8	-106	-14
20130421	NYY	TOR	O	9	110	8.5	-110	-3
20130421	DET	LAA	U	8	-103	8	-102	1
20130421	COL	ARI	O	10	100	10	100	0
20130421	NYM	WAS	U	7.5	100	7.5	-110	-10
20130422	CHW	CLE	O	8	-110	8.5	-112	18
20130422	LAA	TEX	U	8.5	100	8	-102	-21
20130422	HOU	SEA	O	7	100	7.5	-113	39
20130423	LAA	TEX	U	8	-110	8	-110	0
20130423	COL	ATL	U	10	100	9.5	-118	-32
20130423	BAL	TOR	U	8.5	-110	7.5	-103	-27
20130423	TB	NYY	U	7	105	7	-106	-11
20130423	CIN	CHC	O	7.5	-102	7.5	-116	14
20130423	SD	MIL	U	7	102	7	101	-1
20130424	WAS	STL	O	7	110	7	-110	20
20130424	CIN	CHC	O	7.5	122	7	-111	7
20130424	CHW	CLE	O	8	105	7.5	-114	2
20130424	TB	NYY	U	7.5	-110	7	-104	-24
20130424	PHI	PIT	O	7	105	7	-109	14
20130424	SD	MIL	U	7.5	-110	7.5	-115	-5
20130424	LAA	TEX	U	8	-120	7.5	-108	-6
20130425	NYM	LA	U	8	-105	8	-118	-13
20130425	CHW	TB	O	7	100	7	114	-14
20130425	OAK	BAL	U	8	-115	8	-125	-10
20130425	MIN	TEX	U	8.5	100	8.5	-110	-10
20130425	ARI	COL	U	9	-112	9	-118	-6

[SkivChef]

What does 24-5-1 represent?
Not trying to be a dick just trying to understand

[matthew919]

It indicates how many times the line moved in accordance with my wager. So if I wagered on a game at o8 -105 and the Pinny closing line was o8 -115, I got a better number than the closer. And since closing numbers are sharper than opener in a high volume market, beating line movement is considered the most accurate indicator of a long term winning bettor vs a losing bettor.

There is a healthy debate about how to convert your average BTCL number to an expected ROI. Personally I believe that beating the vigged Pinny closer by 7-8 cents can give you anywhere between a 2-5% ROI in the long term.

[Hanamichi23]

It means he beat the pinny CL 24 times, he lost to it 5 times, and tied it 1 time.

edit: too late :P

[matthew919]

For 4/27:

BAL/OAK u8 -105