Model for estimating MLB run totals. Now time to beta test.

[Hustler11]

You are asking the wrong question.

What do you mean?

[matthew919]

Three more for 4/27:

COL/ARI u9.5 -110,
TEX/MIN u8 +105,
ATL/DET u8 -105

[matthew919]

Update through 4/26:

UNDER WAGERS
Line movement accordance: 26-6-2
Avg movement: -8.26c

OVER WAGERS
Line movement accordance: 7-5-1
Avg movement: +4.69c

[GreekMagic]

Another amazing night!
Tailing once more

[alamo]

Well done Matthew !

[matthew919]

Looks like we get a do-over of the Kazmir/Santana matchup. For 4/27:

CLE/KC u9 -115

[matthew919]

Last one for 4/27, I promise:

SF/SD u7.5 -103

[matthew919]

Early play for tomorrow, 4/28:

BAL/OAK u8 -105

[Brebos]

2-4 ohh well better luck tomorrow

[alamo]

Couple of tough late garbage overs yesterday Matt. Keep doing your thing bud !

[matthew919]

Update through 4/27:

UNDER WAGERS
Line movement accordance: 30-9-2
Avg movement: -7.68c

OVER WAGERS
Line movement accordance: 8-5-1
Avg movement: +4.57c

[matthew919]

Couple of tough late garbage overs yesterday Matt. Keep doing your thing bud !

Thanks man. It's a marathon- gotta take the bad with the good.

Just added for 4/28:
TB/CHW o7.5 +100

[matthew919]

For 4/28:

TEX/MIN u8 +110

[matthew919]

Adding for 4/28:

SF/SD u7.5 +110

[AceofSP2107]

What's the record , ? Not trying to sound lost .. Just want to understand is it in a good progression

[J.M. Disciple]

Nice 2-1 today

[J.M. Disciple]

What's the record , ? Not trying to sound lost .. Just want to understand is it in a good progression

With a lot of plays +odds or very low odds asking for record is a good question, but asking about the profit is a better question.

[alamo]

Another great day buddy

[matthew919]

Edit- no plays so far for 4/29- I actually just bet the LAA/OAK under, then realized the wrong pitchers were used in the simulations. Ugh. Decided to hedge out and just pay the juice, rather than letting it ride.

[matthew919]

Nope, I lied- here's one play for 4/29:

BAL/SEA u7.5 -110

[degengamble]

Nice work - would you be willing to at least share what stats you look at in your model?

[matthew919]

Not seeing anything else worth playing today; probably will wait for the overnights before posting any more picks.

In other news, line movement has been rough against me in a few recent games, where I've been on the wrong side- hard. Still looking pretty good overall, although I prefer to see the avg cent movement in the 7+ range. We'll see what happens as the sample size increases some more. Here are the numbers through 4/28:


UNDER WAGERS
Line movement accordance: 31-10-3
Avg movement: -6.77c

OVER WAGERS
Line movement accordance: 9-5-1
Avg movement: +5.80c

[matthew919]

Plays for 4/30:

TB/KC o7.5 +105,
BAL/SEA u7.5 -120,
MIN/DET o7.5 -110,
BOS/TOR o7.5 -125

[TankHankerous]

Typo in the first game, should be CLE/KC

[TankHankerous]

thanks for the picks matthew919!

[LT Profits]

Typo in the first game, should be CLE/KC

No, the play is for 4/30 so TB is correct.

[HilltopTony]

Typo in the first game, should be CLE/KC

No it's TB/KC O/7.5 The game is on 4-30-13 (Tuesday)

[TankHankerous]

My bust

[kfranz31]

good luck...nice job so far

[matthew919]

My bust

Yeah, I play a lot of overnights, so make sure to double-check the dates. Doing my best to avoid typos, but I'll probably mess one up from time to time.

[YouHave2outs]

thanks for the chime in LT Profits. Good to see SBRs only tout/shill/payroll monkey is aware of this random model thread. keep at it.

[matthew919]

4/30:

CHW/TEX o7.5 -110

[19th Hole]

thanks for the chime in LT Profits. Good to see SBRs only tout/shill/payroll monkey is aware of this random model thread. keep at it.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~

No need for name calling.

Not that he needs anyone's defense
but
LT Profits has always been and continues to be, a stand up, honorable man.

[matthew919]

For 5/1:

MIN/DET u9 -105

[matthew919]

5/1:

HOU/NYY u9.5 -105