Model for estimating MLB run totals. Now time to beta test.

[YankThunder06]

Matt nap time? where do you live?

[CHAZ]

Bummer! I was really looking forward to a model with potential. GL anyways Matt

[matthew919]

Get in on the CHC/TEX o7.5 -105 while you can. This line will skyrocket.

[frogsrangers]

Get in on the CHC/TEX o7.5 -105 while you can. This line will skyrocket.

They aren't getting their game in tonight, I am certain. With that being said, I tried a model last year for MLB totals. If you search my posting history you can dig up the threads(was around July/August where I ran it) Was successful at first, but faded as the season progressed. Baseball is a tough sport to build a model for. Way too many variables to account for, combined with the long season and some teams just giving up, etc.

[YouHave2outs]

Just for the record- I'd lay off BOS/CLE under at this point. Value is gone after that 20 cent move. I'd still take OAK/HOU at under 8 -105 though. But no lower than u8 -110.

Ok, nap time for real now.

dude your first play is looking excellent. bartolo and norris should throw a couple of gems. i'm also glad you're one of those people that thinks their model has a ton of value and can't believe the results, then you say to take something at -105 but not -110. GTFO, and yeah the fkng texas/chc line is gonna sky rocket. yeah fkng right.

[YouHave2outs]

J Jaso doubled to deep left.	1	0
C Young singled to center, J Jaso scored, C Young to second on error by center fielder J Maxwell.	1	1
S Smith reached on infield single to third.	1	1
J Lowrie walked, C Young to third, S Smith to second.	1	1
J Donaldson fouled out to first.	1	1
J Reddick doubled to deep right, C Young and S Smith scored, J Lowrie to third.	1	3
D Norris walked.

[frogsrangers]

dude your first play is looking excellent. bartolo and norris should throw a couple of gems. i'm also glad you're one of those people that thinks their model has a ton of value and can't believe the results, then you say to take something at -105 but not -110. GTFO, and yeah the fkng texas/chc line is gonna sky rocket. yeah fkng right.

Give him a break, no model will hit 100%. Heck if a model can hit 54% it is a big success. But baseball is a tricky sport to model for, like I said just too many variables to account for. It's impossible to be able to account for it all. Your best bet is to try and find 4 or 5 variables to do research and regressions on and see which variables correlate the most with totals.

[matthew919]

Ok. After that last run of posts I was reminded just how badly out public schools are failing our kids in the areas of math and science. So I've decided to continue this thread, but with a little bit of a spin.

I'll post my plays here, and keep track of the record. But not in terms of W/L or units. Instead, I'll be grading all plays using a line movement metric. For example, yesterday I was 0-2. And to someone who doesn't understand economics or mathematics, that sounds terrible. But to me it's relatively meaningless. What is far more meaningful is the fact that in both cases I got the best number on the board that was offered all day. Line movement was 15 cents for the BOS game and 12 cents for the OAK game. So if you believe that the MLB market is efficient, then that's a good thing. If you don't believe that MLB is an efficient market, then you are out of your mind and should stop gambling immediately for the sake of your family. And if you don't know what efficiency means, go read a book for once in your life (looking at you, 2outs).

To put it another way, either one of yesterday's wagers (below) could have been arbed against closing line for a guaranteed profit (although doing so would be foolish, since in an efficient market it equates to leaving money on the table).

This is how I approach gambling, for a number of reasons. First, assuming you are betting in a large market with plenty of liquidity, a line movement metric is more stable than a W/L record. A long term winning bettor could very well be net loser over 100 plays, but should NEVER be on the wrong side of the line movement over that many plays. You should shoot for being on the right side of the line 65%+ of the time (at least that's my goal). Here's a good read on that:

http://www.pinnaclesports.com/online-betting-articles/strategy/basic/sharps.aspx

Since this metric is more consistent, it allows you effectively grade your performance using smaller sample sizes. More importantly (for me, at least), it has the added benefit of acting as a psychological buffer to losing streaks. If I hit a 5-15 skid, the first thing I'll do is look at the line movement. If 14 of 20 games moved in accordance with my wagers, I shrug it off and carry on. I would be no less confident going forward than I would be after hitting a 10-0 streak.

Reiterating: The battle is won by beating the line. Everything else you can't control.

Oh, and doing this should act as troll repellent, at least to some degree, since trolls don't understand math.

So with that out of the way, today's only play so far is ARI/NYY u8.5 +110.

[LT Profits]

So with that out of the way, today's only play so far is ARI/NYY u8.5 +110.


[ATTACH]55916[/ATTACH]

FYI, I am on 'under' 9 -120, which brings up another debate. That said, I would have taken 8.5 +110 too, but it was +103 at the time I wagered.

[matthew919]

FYI, I am on 'under' 9 -120, which brings up another debate. That said, I would have taken 8.5 +110 too, but it was +103 at the time I wagered.

Interesting. LT- how do you assign value to half runs based on juice? I uniformly equate 5 cents to 1/8 of a run (20c = 0.5). So I would have actually preferred the u8.5 +103 instead of the u9 -120 in that scenario. I've looked around for a conversion table but never found one, and instead derived my conversion empirically from what looked best from historical line movements. I could be off by a few cents though, and lower/higher totals might have an effect that I am ignoring as well.

[matthew919]

Adding: PIT/ATL u8 -104

[LT Profits]

Interesting. LT- how do you assign value to half runs based on juice? I uniformly equate 5 cents to 1/8 of a run (20c = 0.5). So I would have actually preferred the u8.5 +103 instead of the u9 -120 in that scenario. I've looked around for a conversion table but never found one, and instead derived my conversion empirically from what looked best from historical line movements. I could be off by a few cents though, and lower/higher totals might have an effect that I am ignoring as well.

half-point calculator right here at SBR equates u9 -120 to u8.5 +104.2. http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tool...nt-calculator/

[matthew919]

yeah the fkng texas/chc line is gonna sky rocket. yeah fkng right.

Bookmakers finally got the weather report. Just re-opened at 12.5. Sucks for me there was a pitching change and my wager was no action.

[LT Profits]

Bookmakers finally got the weather report. Just re-opened at 12.5. Sucks for me there was a pitching change and my wager was no action.

I thought you were originally referring to Wednesday night Cubs game?

[matthew919]

I thought you were originally referring to Wednesday night Cubs game?

Sorry- I was looking at tonight's game when I posted that, and didn't specify. My bad. That was entirely a weather-related play, but I'm staying away from it altogether unless it drops to something ridiculous like 9. Oh and thanks for the half point calculator link, I had no idea that was right under my nose here.

[EXhoosier10]

Bookmakers finally got the weather report. Just re-opened at 12.5. Sucks for me there was a pitching change and my wager was no action.

This number is pretty much meaningless as the entire city of Chicago is under about 6 inches of water. If the game is going to get played, it will end up being a night game with puddles in the OF. New drainage be dmaned

[matthew919]

This number is pretty much meaningless as the entire city of Chicago is under about 6 inches of water. If the game is going to get played, it will end up being a night game with puddles in the OF. New drainage be dmaned

Good point. Seems like the number of postponed games this year has been off the charts.

[LT Profits]

Sorry- I was looking at tonight's game when I posted that, and didn't specify.

Then you were looking at Wednesday and THOUGHT you were looking at today. There are never overnight totals at Wrigley.

[matthew919]

BetOnline had it up late afternoon yesterday. I don't plan to play there, but I actually created an account just to hit that one line.

[matthew919]

Just took:

OAK/TB u7.5 +100,
WAS/NYM o6.5 +100,
BOS/KC o8 -110

for tomorrow, 4/19.

How bout that April wind?

[matthew919]

Added

CLE/HOU u8.5 +105,
ATL/PIT u7 +106

for 4/19.

[matthew919]

Added

DET/LAA u8.5 +105

[benjy]

Bookmakers finally got the weather report. Just re-opened at 12.5. Sucks for me there was a pitching change and my wager was no action.

I could be wrong, but it's my understanding that an action bet would have just given you the same side of the bet at the NEW odds posted after the pitching change.

[matthew919]

Right- this was a "Listed" bet (as are all of my wagers). I'm not sure if BetOnline accepts "Action" wagers- if so I can't find them. If they do have them, I was an idiot not to take it in that spot. Any pitching scratch for that game would have only played even more towards the over.

In other news, it's a good day for line movement. I'll be posting my first update on results after the lines close on today's games.

And... my eyes have been glued to the line for the WAS/NYM game all day- this one is worthy of a case study. I got in on the over 6.5 at +110,

Edit: I got in at o6.5 +100, not +110

only to see it fall overnight. Then it went back up this morning, standing now at -102. My opinion is that the initial drop was due to the public, and the sharp money pulled it back up a little. But I wouldn't be surprised to see this line jump up another 10 cents or so before game time. Sharp play was on the over (probably still is), and I think the books are taking a position here. However, in retrospect, if I had anticipated that early movement I'd have gotten an even better number for it. Interested to see how this one plays out...

[Jj999]

I took WAS/NYM Over6.5 too, when it opens at +111 on Pinny.


I thought it was too low even with Stras and Harvey pitching.


Too bad I've got no nerdy statistic model such as yours.
I've relied on my logical reasoning and slight gut feel when determining whether there is value. Luckily, I've been able to beat the line quite consistently.
...
I wish you the best of luck luck mate with your model.
Your presence is a solid proof that not all human (esp. on SBRForum, excluding the think tank) are degenerates.

[YouHave2outs]

Give him a break, no model will hit 100%. Heck if a model can hit 54% it is a big success. But baseball is a tricky sport to model for, like I said just too many variables to account for. It's impossible to be able to account for it all. Your best bet is to try and find 4 or 5 variables to do research and regressions on and see which variables correlate the most with totals.

i'm a degen and had been drinking when i made that post. but seriously, what winning bettor with a developed model takes criticism seriously from any random on any online gambling forum (even though they have a gaggle of gobblers waiting to stick up for them). oh wait, one of them will post every 4 or 5 years and stop soon after because of family problems. gl frogs, you did terrible last year as well.

[matthew919]

Plays for 4/20:

OAK/TB u8 -110,
DET/LAA u9 -110

Missed that juicy opener for the under on the Dodgers game though. Too slow on the draw, need to work on my lightning fast finger speed.

[matthew919]

For 4/20, added:

ATL/PIT u7.5 -115

[matthew919]

I took WAS/NYM Over6.5 too, when it opens at +111 on Pinny.


I thought it was too low even with Stras and Harvey pitching.


Too bad I've got no nerdy statistic model such as yours.
I've relied on my logical reasoning and slight gut feel when determining whether there is value. Luckily, I've been able to beat the line quite consistently.
...
I wish you the best of luck luck mate with your model.
Your presence is a solid proof that not all human (esp. on SBRForum, excluding the think tank) are degenerates.

GL to you too- you got a great number. Should be an awesome game, looking forward to watching regardless of the outcome. My reasoning actually had nothing to do with stats in this case. On an ordinary day I would have stayed away from this game at 6.5, but I expect that the wind will add 1-2 runs to the total here (of course that is assuming either team is actually able to put the ball in play)...

[YouHave2outs]

Your presence is a solid proof that not all human (esp. on SBRForum, excluding the think tank) are degenerates.

a patently false statement

[Jj999]

GL to you too- you got a great number. Should be an awesome game, looking forward to watching regardless of the outcome. My reasoning actually had nothing to do with stats in this case. On an ordinary day I would have stayed away from this game at 6.5, but I expect that the wind will add 1-2 runs to the total here (of course that is assuming either team is actually able to put the ball in play)...

Which book do you bet with?
Why don't you wait for pinny to open their line?
They would have it at better price.

If you are US based.
Bookmaker opens at +100 for OAK/TB u8 (Apr 20 game)

You can line shop using sbr live odds.

[nbballaz7]

Do you have a posted record YTD? Sorry of I missed it somewhere....

[matthew919]

I bet mostly with 5 Dimes, but I've been learning as I go along. I do have a Bookmaker account, but I've recently noticed that BetOnline actually opens their lines earlier. So I think I might be betting with them regularly. Anyway, that's where the OAK line came from- I grabbed it before Bookmaker released their lines, and turns out I could have done better. Ah well, can't win em all. And I still expect that one to drop quite a bit.

But there's definitely soft lines to be found... check out the gigantic correction that happened for tomorrow's Dodgers game- huge value there, for whoever was fast getting to it.

[Jj999]

How about the greek?
They are early to open their lines too.

Earlier than pinny.
If you are US based, you can play at heritage. Which is the same as greek.

Atl/pit u7.5 opens at -113 on pinny.

[Jj999]

I don't bet with bookmaker..
Most of their lines are ridiculous..
And their Neteller payout is taking forever.


BetDSI is the same as BookMaker, however they have dimelines for MLB.
Bookmaker no dimeline.


If you are US based, great lines are tough to get in your country mate.