Model for estimating MLB run totals. Now time to beta test.

[matthew919]

Just added:

WAS/NYM u7.5 +100,
ARI/COL o9.5 +100

[matthew919]

Thanks for the info JJ. I wish any of those options were available to me- I tried to join Heritage but was told you it was invitation only, and that they weren't taking new customers or something like that? Oh well.

Anyway, the Pinnacle challenge's results update... Since I bet at multiple books, I've decided to use the closing line at Pinny as my comparison, to make things simpler. Also, I'll be counting the difference between half runs as 20 cents- again just for simplicity and convenience. So a movement from o8 -110 to o8.5 -110 would be 20 cents.

I'll break things down separately into overs and unders, and I represent downward line movement as '-' cents, with upward movement as '+' cents. So for the under wagers, we hope to see a negative number for movement, and over wagers we're shooting for a positive value.


UNDER WAGERS
Record: 6-2-0
Avg movement: -5.75c

OVER WAGERS
Record: 0-1-0
Avg movement: -11.0c


It looks like I spoke too soon about yesterday being a good day, as both the ATL and WAS lines had some rollercoaster swings just before game time- both moving against me. The WAS game in particular looked like some kind of Billy Walters play, as it plummeted and then skyrocketed right back up. I was getting queasy just watching. Moving on though, excited for today's games.

[matthew919]

Added:

LAD(Ryu)/BAL(Hammel) u8.5 -113

[JR007]

good luck with this dude,believe that you have to take into account derivative pricing, ie ( first fives, team totals etc) not a modeler, just my opinion based on veteran observation

[matthew919]

Plays for 4/21:

OAK/TB u8.5 -110,
ATL/PIT u7.5 -105,
STL/PHI u8.5 -110,
NYY/TOR o9 +110,
DET/LAA u8 -103

[frogsrangers]

One thing I learned with this last year was that the model was much more successful at picking unders than overs. Something to keep in mind

[matthew919]

One thing I learned with this last year was that the model was much more successful at picking unders than overs. Something to keep in mind

Interesting. I plan to play a lot more unders as well. Mainly because I set stricter confidence intervals for the overs, since I don't account for situations when the home team wins and bats for 8 innings. Instead I just simulate 9 innings for each team. Definitely room for improvement there...

[Jj999]

One thing I learned with this last year was that the model was much more successful at picking unders than overs. Something to keep in mind

Unders happen more often than over.
Because there are inflated numbers, square loves to bet over.

So if a model is more successful picking unders, that's something to be expected.
Because you also have more under bet.

[matthew919]

For 4/21:

ARI/COL o10 +100

[YouHave2outs]

Tate - April is purely burn in; I only look at games from ~5/1 onward. That's because the model needs about 10 home/away games played to get a good read on each team. But no adjustment is done from that point on. There's an average of 1-2 plays a day from May - October, pretty consistently. Very rarely are there 4 plays on a single day. Some days there are none, though those are pretty rare too. Overall a pretty low variance in that distribution over the length of the season, which I was happy to see.

The prediction can be calculated as soon as the starting pitchers for both teams are known. So you can have it in hand by the time the line opens. I actually plan to post my plays for the day sometime in the AM, since I'm anticipating those lines will be a little softer. But we'll see. Thanks for the comments.

or not

[matthew919]

Another for 4/21:

WAS/NYM u7.5 +100

[kfranz31]

good luck i hope this works its nice to see some real information in the forum instead of all the other t bs

[matthew919]

Huge value for 2 plays tomorrow, 4/22:

CLE/CHW o8 -110,
TEX/LAA u8.5 +100

[matthew919]

Update through 4/21:

UNDER WAGERS
Line movement accordance: 12-5-1
Avg movement: -4.55c

OVER WAGERS
Line movement accordance: 0-3-1
Avg movement: -7.25c

[matthew919]

For 4/22:

HOU/SEA o7 +100

[matthew919]

It's my favorite time of the day- let's pound some terrible openers.

For 4/23:

TEX/LAA u8 -110,
ATL/COL u10 +100,
TOR/BAL u8.5 -110,
NYY/TB u7 +105

[matthew919]

Update, through 4/22:

UNDER WAGERS
Line movement accordance: 13-5-1
Avg movement: -5.47c

OVER WAGERS
Line movement accordance: 2-3-1
Avg movement: +2.00c

[matthew919]

4/23:

CHC/CIN o7.5 -102

[matthew919]

Also for 4/23:

MIL/SD u7 +102

[matthew919]

4/23:

KC/DET o7.5 +107

[matthew919]

One more for 4/23:

CLE/CHW o8 +100


On a side note- work is about to turn into madness for me, so I've decided to post only the first 100 plays from this model. Currently I'm somewhere between 25 and 30, so at this clip that translates to about 2-3 more weeks or so. Just want to be up front about it now- I'm not trying to skew the results or anything, and I'm not trying to quit while the results "look good." In fact, my hard W-L record is negative at the moment, and with a small sample size of 100, I won't guarantee that it will achieve the 55% (or better) that I shoot for. At the end of the 100 plays I'll post some figures and analysis regarding those numbers as well, but like I mentioned in an earlier post- it doesn't concern me much. My primary aim is just to beat the hell out of closing lines- with that accomplished everything else falls into place.

And in response to why there are so many more plays than I originally assumed... well, I'm new at this, and didn't realize the extent and range of line movements that present themselves during the day. My test scenarios were against a single static line, but I'll certainly exploit value wherever I see it as the lines move during the day.

[matthew919]

Just made two plays for tomorrow, 4/24:

STL/WAS o7 +110,
NYY/TB u7.5 -110

[Hanamichi23]

Where do you bet tomorrow's games? Great thread btw

[fitguy67]

Update, through 4/22:

UNDER WAGERS
Line movement accordance: 13-5-1
Avg movement: -5.47c

OVER WAGERS
Line movement accordance: 2-3-1
Avg movement: +2.00c

just to be clear,

Line movement accordance: 2-3-1
means in 2 plays you BTC...in 3 plays you failed to BTC...in 1 play, the price closed at your entry price

correct?

[matthew919]

just to be clear,

Line movement accordance: 2-3-1
means in 2 plays you BTC...in 3 plays you failed to BTC...in 1 play, the price closed at your entry price

correct?

That's right.

Update through 4/23 (ignoring the two cancelled games yesterday):

UNDER WAGERS
Line movement accordance: 17-5-2
Avg movement: -7.58c

OVER WAGERS
Line movement accordance: 3-3-1
Avg movement: +3.71c

[matthew919]

For 4/24:

PIT/PHI o7 +105,
MIL/SD u7.5 -110

[matthew919]

4/24:

CHC/CIN o7.5 +122

[matthew919]

Where do you bet tomorrow's games? Great thread btw

Thanks! Keep stopping by for updates. I play openers at BetOnline. Day of game I shop between 5Dimes, Bookmaker, and betDSI.

[matthew919]

4/23:

CLE/CHI o 8 +105

[matthew919]

4/23:

TEX/LAA u8 -120

Edit: wrong date posted; should have read 4/24. See (re)post #104 below. Also, post #100 above should read 4/24 as well. I should replace the battery in my calendar...

[Watergate]

Very interesting . I'll be following.

[alamo]

4/23:

TEX/LAA u8 -120

Should the date on this not read 4/24 ???

[matthew919]

Should the date on this not read 4/24 ???

YES! Good catch!

4/24:
TEX/LAA u8 -120

It's still available at that price, so I think it's fair to edit the last post with a strikethrough and an explanation. Thanks for the catch!

[alamo]

YES! Good catch!

4/24:
TEX/LAA u8 -120

It's still available at that price, so I think it's fair to edit the last post with a strikethrough and an explanation. Thanks for the catch!

Absolutely. I for one am happy to verify. Good luck today buddy. Will be following as am interested in the system.

[benjy]

I know it's beyond what you're beta testing and is still a very small sample for what I'm asking, but I'm curious about the results of the bets you've made. Any chance you could post them every so often?